max_reason
Pre-takeoff checklist
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- Oct 27, 2018
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max_reason
... found max is in fact a real (separate) person, with a real address, girlfriend, etc...but, I'd also say, that max seems to have a history of making some very outrageous claims with no offered proof to back up those claims (not that he must offer proof, but I'm just saying)...so I guess I can only say that max is real, but, perhaps not too real, lol. Either way, to max: dude, you may have made some great accomplishments, but my advice would be to look to a simpler answer to your problem. A flight like you think you're capable of making is a once-or-twice in a lifetime, after many many years of experience, kind of thing...as others have mentioned, maybe getting a plane you can easily disassemble and ship would be the way to go. I'm recently IFR rated, and even though I'm capable/legal flying IFR, and while I've flown 5 to 6 hour non-stop legs while VFR, right now I limit my IFR time to short hops of absolutely no more than 2 hours. The weather prediction is way too frequently wrong, and when you cover that much distance, there is too much to take in for a single flight. And with the distance you're talking about, there is absolutely no way you can fly the whole way guaranteed VFR.
Yes, I'm real, but I've also lived my life very much like a hermit. After decades, that's pretty much habit now, a habit I enjoy. And no matter how you got your information about me, you don't know more than a fraction. Trying to hold a conversation here reminds me of one reason I became a hermit... namely too many [more-or-less] "normal people" cannot communicate with me effectively (and many have the habit of communicating for purposes other than conveying information and making decisions). Since have always been "live and let live", I happily withdrew from most human contact. But I forgot why, I forgot how impossible this process of trying to communicate rationally with [more-or-less] "normal people" can be, and this mess is the result.
Yes, I haven't had an aviation medical in a long time.
My life has been outrageous... according to opinions of most people. I might add that when I have considered "outrageous" activities in the past, when the time came to "go for it" or "give up", I did "give up" in a large minority of cases. Which is what I tried to explain way back early in this thread... that I refuse to stop accumulating information early in the process, and only "give up" when I have all the information [I think I need] at the end of the process. To give up earlier doesn't work in my business or my kind of life.
I don't understand your comments about VFR and IFR time. Or maybe I do. Like I said, my two hours of flying back east convinced me everyone who flies back east needs an IFR rating and a lot of experience. I wouldn't even think of bothering with aviation back there... unless my goal was to become employed in aviation. Which it isn't. So if that's your context, or anywhere even near your context, I totally understand your decision. I'd be even more conservative in that situation. Well, except I don't know what your goals for aviation are, so I really have no basis to judge.
I intend to fly for the rest of my life... in VFR conditions like in those photos I posted. I intend to visit all sorts of wild, crazy places in the boonies in that area. However, you are exactly correct to say my long-range inter-island-group flights are intended to be literally and exactly "once in a lifetime"... once flying west, and once fly back. Since I won't have any other IMC to contend to, absent some geological catastrophe the magnitude of which none of us want to seriously contemplate, I only have to decide whether any approach exists that will let me fly those "once in a lifetime" flights in relative safety. My 16 years experience living on a tropical island in the middle of the north pacific leads me to infer that most likely... assuming I actually am willing to wait for spectacularly awesome weather and 24-hour forecasts (which I am)... I could probably find times when the risk of not being able to find any island to land when I have near 1000 miles of extra fuel on board is rather low. Maybe I'm wrong. Maybe the south-pacific is unlike the north-pacific, and more like my experiences back east. If that's what I find, that's a "no go". I don't expect to find that is the case, however. We shall see.
The option of shipping the airplane is on the table. That is still a possibility. But I'm not going to do what [pretty much] everyone here will advise, namely immediately drop the idea of flying and just ship the damn airplane! I need facts relevant to my specific missions. And I won't get them from a list of "prudent practices" that apply everywhere. By definition, if one must create a list of "prudent practices that will be safe everywhere... which must necessarily include the worst environments on the planet", then I admit all the advice I've been pushing aside (pending evidence for my situation)... would be valid advice. Frankly, I'd say most of it is not conservative enough.
So I will continue my quest, but I will stop seeking shortcuts like expecting kind-hearted wisdom from forums. Well, at least this forum, and probably AOPA too. Maybe I can extract at least some additional information from the pipistrel owners forum. I already have, in fact, but maybe I can gain more there. I thought the much larger populations here and AOPA would be more likely to produce answers to the more general and universal questions I have, but obviously I'm wrong. I forgot. Now I remember.
I'm not planning to fly those long legs entirely VFR. No, scratch that. I am planning to fly those long legs entirely VFR. However, I don't rule out the possibility that I might need to fly a little IMC to make my overall trip safer... like possibly to climb above weather trouble or something and/or back down again. But I still don't believe I'm likely to take off in absolutely perfect weather conditions PLUS absolutely the best 24-hour forecast the south-pacific has ever seen... and end up in truly dangerous weather. If I had to bet, I'd say the danger of the engine quitting due to some unexpected <fill-in-the-blank> situation is a greater danger than IMC. This assumes I am at least somewhat prepared for IMC conditions, that I've become expert in my airplane, avionics, autopilot and systems by that time, and so forth. As I've been saying, I am likely to get a significant amount of training to prepare me for flying in IMC conditions, and little training to handle IFR approach and landing practices. Unless evidence not-yet-gained makes me change my mind. You can all now go lie again and claim I stated my intention is to not prepare at all for the possibility of IMC. Sheesh!
To fly across 3000km (1900 miles) of relatively uniform environment (wide open ocean at not an excessively wide range of latitudes) is not the same as flying across a random 3000km (1900 miles) of a content like the USA. Especially out west, a large percentage of weather is caused by variations in environment... like a coastline, like a mountain range, even individual mountains or large lakes. Therefore, my inference (so far) is... when a 24-hour weather prediction for a 3000km (1900 mile) stretch of the south-pacific indicates "awesome weather conditions", the physical environmental reasons for that forecast to be wrong may well be less. Against that, I assume, open oceans have vastly fewer reporting stations. OTOH, there are reporting stations "out there", and satellites have a great many kinds of sensors that provide information for everywhere on the planet. The difference is, there are no dramatic variations in local physical environments (like mountains, huge lakes, etc) to cascade with each other to produce a terrible forecast. Yet... I'm early in my investigation process, so I have yet to find out much of this. I will no longer hope to get information in these forums. I'd rather continue to study weather behavior and predictions on www.windy.com for the next year and draw my own conclusions! At least I'm dealing with reality, not generalized platitudes.
I don't expect "guaranteed" ANYTHING. I expect no guarantee a fuel tank or fuel line won't develop a leak. I expect no guarantee the engine won't quit. I expect no guarantee the engine won't develop a smaller problem and consume more fuel than expected. I expect no guarantee to prevent both of my oxygen tanks to fail. I expect no guarantee that I cannot find an altitude between 100 feet and 23,000 feet (the ceiling for this airplane) where headwinds are not strongly against me. I expect no guarantee that something completely unexpected doesn't arise during my trip. I expect no guarantee that no alien spacecraft will turn on their tractor beam and drag my airplane into their cargo hold, followed by excruciating "animal experimentation". I expect no guarantee period. I do expect that every possibility is some degree of risk. Honestly, I can't imagine any real pilot thinking they have a guarantee of much... even on measly 100 mile trips!
And perhaps most of all, I expect no guarantee that I won't come to the same conclusion that the vast majority here have. I don't start out with conclusions. I gather evidence, then come to conclusions... by inferring how the evidence accumulated applies to the specific posed situation and circumstances. That is how I will continue to function. This approach has worked for me so far. Everyone else should make their own decisions their own ways.
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