Weather planning beyond tomorrow

joycem137

joycem137

Pre-takeoff checklist
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Apr 2, 2013
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Novi, MI
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Robin
I was wondering if anyone knows of good resources for doing VFR flight planning beyond the next few days. I plan to fly from KPAO to 1O2 (Lampson Field) and back this weekend, and noticed some predictions of possible clouds and rain in the ordinary weather reports. But of course, they don't tell me much about how much they'll interfere with VFR flight.
 
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Go to www.avwxworkshops.com and see what Scott offers for free...then seriously consider signing up as a member. His VFR Roadmap is especially valuable for those who don't know where to look first.

Bob Gardner
 
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bobmrg said:
Go to www.avwxworkshops.com and see what Scott offers for free...then seriously consider signing up as a member. His VFR Roadmap is especially valuable for those who don't know where to look first.

Bob Gardner
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He has weather prediction charts/etc for beyond 48 hours? Looks more like an education site to me...
 
Ron Levy said:
The ADDS site has prog charts out to 48 hours, but for a look farther into the future, I suggest the NWS's MAV MOS Graphics site, which includes forecasts of ceiling, visibility, and precip a couple of days further into the future.
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The MAV/MOS site looks useful, but it only makes it out 4 days. Still better than the <48 hours stuff I generally see.
 
Here is a site that looks six days in the future, with relatively specific information that includes most things a VFR pilot needs - an important exception is cloud height. Although this one is for New York City, this is customizable for any US domestic location.

The usual caveat applies - the further you look in the future, the more unreliable the information becomes. Nevertheless, I find this site useful, and I have come to like the graphic presentation of the data.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClic...extField2=-73.75740&site=okx&unit=0&dd=0&bw=0

-Skip
 
joycem137 said:
The MAV/MOS site looks useful, but it only makes it out 4 days. Still better than the <48 hours stuff I generally see.
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You're not going to find much worth a hoot beyond that, but you can try he Weather Channel's aviation prog charts. Go the pulldown menu below the map and look for "US National Weather" for the day up to a week ahead. Beyond that? "Here there be tygers..."
 
You could try weather underground they give week long forecast for clouds and rain.
 
joycem137 said:
He has weather prediction charts/etc for beyond 48 hours? Looks more like an education site to me...
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It is an education site...but education by a meteorologist/CFII who has worked for the National Weather Service and knows it inside out. Any forecast beyond 72 hours is a crap shoot, but Scott can point you in the right direction.

I agree that www.wunderground.com is a great source, but it, too, suffers from decreasing accuracy with time.

Bob Gardner
 
joycem137 said:
I looked around duats and didn't find anything beyond a couple days.
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There's a reason for that. You simply can't forecast accurately enough beyond 48-72 hours to provide anything useful.

Here's a site I like, in conjunction with some of the others mentioned here, and it goes pretty far out. Like I said though, anything over 72 hours is slightly better than a guess...

http://www.usairnet.com/cgi-bin/launch/code.cgi
 
Brad Z said:
There's a reason for that. You simply can't forecast accurately enough beyond 48-72 hours to provide anything useful.

Here's a site I like, in conjunction with some of the others mentioned here, and it goes pretty far out. Like I said though, anything over 72 hours is slightly better than a guess...

http://www.usairnet.com/cgi-bin/launch/code.cgi
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A guess is perfect for my needs. I just want something I can use to inform pax whether or not a planned flight is going to occur or not. Obviously, as we get closer, we have more accuracy, and the final decision doesn't come until the day of.
 
joycem137 said:
I was wondering if anyone knows of good resources for doing VFR flight planning beyond the next few days. I plan to fly from KPAO to 1O2 (Lampson Field) and back this weekend, and noticed some predictions of possible clouds and rain in the ordinary weather reports. But of course, they don't tell me much about how much they'll interfere with VFR flight.
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Two more to look at...

http://coolwx.com/ptype/

http://forecast.weather.gov/product...TR&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

Looking better for Sunday than Saturday. Have fun! Planning trips/weather is almost as much fun as flying the trip. I like to compare what I thought the wx was going to do with actual in-flight wx.
 
joycem137 said:
The MAV/MOS site looks useful, but it only makes it out 4 days. Still better than the <48 hours stuff I generally see.
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The usairnet link that was provided has been the most accurate extended aviation forecast I've found. As Ron said, anything beyond that isn't really much better than a guess. Look at a 7-10 day forecast for a trip you want to take, then look at it again every day until the day of, and you'll find that it'll generally change at least twice before you get to the day of.

joycem137 said:
A guess is perfect for my needs. I just want something I can use to inform pax whether or not a planned flight is going to occur or not. Obviously, as we get closer, we have more accuracy, and the final decision doesn't come until the day of.
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You can't possibly tell them a week in advance whether or not a flight will happen. Just tell them that you'll keep them posted, but you have to make the decision on the day of. Generally, the weather will be slightly better than the forecast, too.
 
I typically use graphical.weather.gov further out than 2 days, but it does not predict ceilings. If it did, it would be garbage. Usairnet.com gives a bit more, but compare it to what you know at PAO, and you'll discover it isn't accurate more than a day out, except for broad brushstrokes.

Over the weekend, it does appear rain is a possibility, but it looks to be mainly over the northern Sierra and Cascades. It's better south, but there is coastal fog from Big Sur south.
 
I'd also caution that Lampson Field is next to a fair-sized lake, and in the mountains, both of which will modify the weather (generally for the worse, though not always). At least it's on the (usually) windward side of the lake.

At least it has AWOS. Not all the airports in that region do. And the nearest TAF is at Ukiah, which is not useful -- it's on the wrong side of the mountains, and it can be totally different, especially during marginal weather.
 
MAKG1 said:
I'd also caution that Lampson Field is next to a fair-sized lake, and in the mountains, both of which will modify the weather (generally for the worse, though not always). At least it's on the (usually) windward side of the lake.

At least it has AWOS. Not all the airports in that region do. And the nearest TAF is at Ukiah, which is not useful -- it's on the wrong side of the mountains, and it can be totally different, especially during marginal weather.
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Actually, last time I checked, their AWOS was INOP. :) EXCITING!
 
frfly172 said:
You could try weather underground they give week long forecast for clouds and rain.
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Like most if not all long range forecasts, it's a guess more than 4-5 days out, but that's what I use. :D
 
MAKG1 said:
I typically use graphical.weather.gov further out than 2 days, but it does not predict ceilings. If it did, it would be garbage. Usairnet.com gives a bit more, but compare it to what you know at PAO, and you'll discover it isn't accurate more than a day out, except for broad brushstrokes.

Over the weekend, it does appear rain is a possibility, but it looks to be mainly over the northern Sierra and Cascades. It's better south, but there is coastal fog from Big Sur south.
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There's definitely looking to be a possibility of needing to go by ground this weekend. It'll be disappointing, as it was supposed to be my friend's first flight with me. Ah well. :p

Hopefully, when we get more accurate predictions, they'll be less problematic. Some of those prediction sites do show it being basically clear by the afternoon.

*crosses fingers*
 
A guess is perfect for my needs.
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When way out, I just use the Weather Channel. I keep checking as it gets closer, and when you get within 48 hours, you can start honing in. I had to scrub a trip Monday morning and drive. Everything said I would be able to fly, but a stubborn system kept low clouds, mountain obscuration, etc. at my destination. I didn't find out until Monday morning.
 
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