Unfortunate plane crash: Wagner boss Prigozhin reported killed in crash

asicer said:
Yeah, it's a bit of a balancing act, isn't it? On the one hand you want to confer complacency upon your intended victim but on the other hand you want set an example.
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On the third hand, you might actually motivate your adversaries. "We'd better get him before he gets us." Every body that's stacked up is just one more reason to act.

Ron Wanttaja
 
Lindberg said:
Could you please show your work? We all know what they say about assumptions. But I'd say in this case, it's equally likely that the manner of death was carefully chosen to send a message to those still living. To wit, "You will never be safe, no matter where you go or what you do. There's no end to the ways I can kill you, and I don't give a **** about appearances."
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Or it's an epic false flag.
 
If only we could get Putin to shoot down the rest of his military leadership...
 
wanttaja said:
On the third hand, you might actually motivate your adversaries. "We'd better get him before he gets us." Every body that's stacked up is just one more reason to act.
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If that was going to motivate anyone in this case, the train left the station decades ago.
 
172andyou said:
Love to read your theory on that one.
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It seemed to me to be obvious: Putin and Wagner have words, Ukraine takes out Wagner, but it looks as if Putin did. Putin calls it "accident" as he cannot admit Ukrainian influence in his territory.
 
Kenny Phillips said:
It seemed to me to be obvious: Putin and Wagner have words, Ukraine takes out Wagner, but it looks as if Putin did. Putin calls it "accident" as he cannot admit Ukrainian influence in his territory.
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So your theory is that Ukraine wanted to make Putin look stronger and killed Wagner, instead of doing damage to Putin by using those missiles closer to the front line or by killing Wagner taking credit and showing video of their crew conducting the attack?
 
172andyou said:
So your theory is that Ukraine wanted to make Putin look stronger and killed Wagner, instead of doing damage to Putin by using those missiles closer to the front line or by killing Wagner taking credit and showing video of their crew conducting the attack?
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I think the context was “ …be interesting if”. I didn’t see him plant a flag on the idea.
 
kyleb said:
I think the context was “ …be interesting if”. I didn’t see him plant a flag on the idea.
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Whether you use his word "epic" or your word "interesting" it's unclear what the motive would be. I mean, I guess "interesting" makes more sense because it would be interesting to know what would be gained by Ukraine making Putin look stronger and better in control. Or maybe he meant it would be "epically dumb" if it turned out Ukraine did this and made Putin look like someone not to be messed with.
 
The real takeaway for the gallery who resembles the remark is that, the presumption of safety by human shield proxy (bystander occupants/crew of the Embraer) is not something that the FSB (former KGB) led criminal syndicate that astroturfs under the name "Russian Federation", holds on to. No longer a substantive COA if you're trying to survive this regime.

That is a departure from even its own previous signature of targeted assassinations (namely the extraterritorial poisonings), and those of similar autocracies like North Korea (Song-thaek) and Saudi Arabia (Kashoggi). In that regard the Russian Federation behaves closer to non-state actors, like drug cartels. None of this would be geopolitically significant except for the fact the drug cartels don't have nuclear weapons nor intercontinental delivery platforms, let alone be numerical leader of them in the world. As always, glowsticks tend to change the dialogue.
 
On the bright side, he finally got those munitions he was asking for.
 
Latest I read American intel says no evidence of missile so more likely onboard bomb but also have they actually found his body yet? Last report was 8 bodies out of 10.
 
skyking3286 said:
Back to aviation. First look at the spinning plane and the plane pitching up and down tells me that the stab is still there, otherwise it would be tumbling nose over tail. But it seems to have little pitch control in a barely controlled spinning like vertical descent. White smoke looks like fuel venting. I'm guessing a wing and perhaps the elevators damaged by the ground fire some folks witnessed or an explosion at the aft bulkhead. I would also guess we aren't going to be getting a NTSB sort of crash investigation out of this! I'm sure the intelligence folks have a frame by frame analysis going. Steep pitch over at the end. Predictable snark aside. . . What say ye, back to aviation?
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One video I saw, it appeared the entire right wing was gone.
 
This altitude graph was produced by triangulation measurements of data the aircraft broadcast in flight to FR24 participant receiving servers. ADS-B data was unavailable because of assumed GPS/GLONASS jamming in the area.

The altitude variations were rapid and occurred over an approximately 30 minute period. They appear to be evasive of some sorts, but maybe I'm wrong. I can't offer any cogent assessment regarding the altitude anomalies, having never received education and training on the subject or been the target of anti-aircraft fire or surface to air missiles while flying at 30,000' MSL.

Hopefully a POA member with relevant military experience can enlighten the room with educated commentary regarding the events.


RA-02795-Calibrated-Altitude.jpeg
 
It was sadly reported that Utkin was also on board the doomed plane. The sad part is there were only a few moments of possible sheer terror before a painless death. He deserved so much more.
 
Silvaire said:
Latest I read American intel says no evidence of missile so more likely onboard bomb but also have they actually found his body yet? Last report was 8 bodies out of 10.
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Latest reports say his body was identified by a previous finger injury, and Utkin by his tattoos.
 
If you're implying that Embraer went defending on surface to air threat rings? *chuckles* nope. Those are cruise altitude changes, there's nothing there remotely resembling "rapid" anything, let alone threat-counter maneuvers, which we will obviously not get into here for OPSEC reasons. (not today Winnie dah Xi :D).

Zero defensive suite on that Embraer afaik. You can tell, plenty of unclass pics on the net of the exterior. Furthermore, that civil registry aircraft is not stressed for any level of credible high-G defensive. Even if you wanted to, you got eff all vis on that airliner, you can't counter WVR with any credibility. You're just as likely to fold the wings on your own without anything being shot at you.

Hard to tell on the video not knowing the environmentals, normally even the latest gen smokeless missiles will leave a smoke trail in the bozosphere, to say nothing of the impact igniting combustibles onboard (black smoke from overrich explosion of fuels).

At any rate, even cold war third gen systems would make a child's play out of downing a barbie jet. My theory? Based on the scant video evidence and altitudes as recorded, I think that thing blowded up from the inside. Looks like the 'gift' was loaded with the rest of the bags.
 
Lindberg said:
Could you please show your work? We all know what they say about assumptions. But I'd say in this case, it's equally likely that the manner of death was carefully chosen to send a message to those still living. To wit, "You will never be safe, no matter where you go or what you do. There's no end to the ways I can kill you, and I don't give a **** about appearances."
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This is the Internet, it's all guesses. I'm sure the intent was to cause fear. But previous posts above listed very close up and personal methods of elimination. That's a message not just that a person can be removed, but that you have no protection for someone just walking up to you and doing that. That's not a Putin thing, that's a Russian thing.

If this episode was either sabotage or AA, to me it sends a message that for the first time in 100 years a relatively independent political figure can protect himself on the ground from the national leader. If they hadn't brought down the plane, it could have been stated or assumed that they didn't want to. By this act, my math, this demonstrates that it was the only option they had, the best they could do.

Or in other words, to me, what was meant as a threat was really an indication that he has such little control over his own forces that he effectively has to use terrorist tactics within his own country in order to eliminate a single person. As others have pointed out, that's the act of a drug cartel leader, not a head of state. Perhaps more accurately, an act where your options are limited because your reach and control is limited.

Maybe I'm all wet on all of this. But I see taking down an airplane as a Pablo Escobar thing, which didn't work out exceptionally well for him, leading to a reach out and touch moment that Pablo was on the receiving side of. The latter of which absolutely was sending a message, at least in my view. And extending that, maybe my weird math means that the Russian fellow may have been more vulnerable to Prigozhin than Prigozhin thought...and maybe still is vulnerable to internal opposition.
 
Albany Tom said:
By this act, my math, this demonstrates that it was the only option they had, the best they could do.
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Possible.

But my math says Putin wasn’t only striking Prigozhin; he was displaying power and authority to the Wagner group to discourage further insurrection.

If it doesn’t work, there may yet be a civil war.
 
'Mechanical malfunction'




.....brought on by shrapnel from a air-burst munition.
 
The time frame in the graph above is about 32 seconds, not 30 minutes. So quite possibly the last convulsions of a dying jet.
 
Spinka said:
The time frame in the graph above is about 32 seconds, not 30 minutes. So quite possibly the last convulsions of a dying jet.
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3393RP said:
This altitude graph was produced by triangulation measurements of data the aircraft broadcast in flight to FR24 participant receiving servers. ADS-B data was unavailable because of assumed GPS/GLONASS jamming in the area.
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It's important to understand the errors and limitations in estimating this kind of data before drawing conclusions based on it.

Nauga,
who don't need a metrologist to know which way the wing goes
 
Probably an explosive charge in the wheel well, against the main spar, which failed catastrophically, as seen in pictures posted on Pprune.


The airline stewardess who deadheaded to St Petersburgh messaged friends that there was a lot of mechanical issues prior to departure. Perhaps friends of Putin checking for low tire pressure? Her friends and relatives wish she had waited for the commercial flight the next day.
 
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nauga said:
It's important to understand the errors and limitations in estimating this kind of data before drawing conclusions based on it.

Nauga,
who don't need a metrologist to know which way the wing goes
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I did indeed make a time error. The graph states the measurement is in minutes and seconds, which I obviously missed.

When studying crashes that provide data transmitted from the aircraft without other correlation, I try to make extra effort to examine and digest it before commenting. That didn't happen here. I know this type of triangulated data is unreliable, and using it to make conclusive observations is a good way to suffer embarrassment.
 
This is a pilot’s forum.

I get the speculation and joking around that this incident has elicited. Par for the course.

But I’m not recalling much empathy or concern regarding the pilots lost in this incident, in what must have been terrifying final moments regardless of the cause. Nor for some of the passengers who likely had no role in the atrocities perpetrated by Prighozhin and his ilk.

Carry on, but maybe just a moment of empathy for those souls might be appropriate?
 
FastEddieB said:
This is a pilot’s forum.

I get the speculation and joking around that this incident has elicited. Par for the course.

But I’m not recalling much empathy or concern regarding the pilots lost in this incident, in what must have been terrifying final moments regardless of the cause. Nor for some of the passengers who likely had no role in the atrocities perpetrated by Prighozhin and his ilk.

Carry on, but maybe just a moment of empathy for those souls might be appropriate.
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Were they not all Wagner personnel?
 
@3393RP I quoted your post because it had a good description of the methodology, not for the timing error, no offense intended. With the "correct" timing (air quotes because there's nothing as presented that shows it is, in fact, correct) the data does not look realistic. Taking the data at face value and looking at the plateau beginning at 19:46.56 would lead one to believe the airplane, starting from nearly level flight, climbed about 1000ft in roughly 1/10sec, briefly leveled off, and descended ~1000ft in 1/10 sec, then back to nearly level flight. Even in an inflight breakup those kinds of dynamics are unrealistic. What's more likely, given what else is publicly available, is that the data needs a little filtering and wildpoint editing, and the real behavior is smoother and represents a steepening descent rather than 'convulsions'

This is not intended as commentary on the mishap, this is commentary on the analysis, given the methodology.

Nauga,
smooooooooth
 
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It's a Darwin award really. The guy should have known better. Once he publicly embarassed his boss, it was over. He fell for the old "yeah, I will give in to your demands and forgive you" trick.
 
Live by the hammer, die by the hammer. Pilots and pax were combatants and support personnel. And weren’t friendlies. This was not an ordinary executive flight somewhere. One admires their chutzpah for traversing Russia but that’s about it. If there are thoughts & prayers, they should go to innocent Ukrainians, and of course the families of all involved. Those are who I feel sorry for.
 
FastEddieB said:
I don’t know. I recall reading one flight attendant was on board, dead heading it on the leg in question.
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I don’t know either, but...
Piperonca said:
Pilots and pax were combatants and support personnel.
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To me, it seems akin to one mob boss rubbing out another mob boss by blowing up his car. I can’t work up a lot of sympathy for other mobsters who were also in the car, including the mobster driver.
 
Gives a new meaning to dead heading, no?
 
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