Top of the market?

Groundpounder

Groundpounder

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Emerson Bigguns
I've been on the hunt for a good airplane since November. Mostly interested in 182's, but we've broadened our search lately to include 33 series Bonanza's. Seems like every airplane on the market is either over priced, has issues, or is sold by the time we get in contact with someone. When is this market going to start cooling off? Are we at the top right now? I'd love an airplane tomorrow, but I'd be willing to wait a year and rent or lease something if the prices and demand are going to start coming down.

Of course it's just a guess on anyone's part right now....
 
I'd imagine most of your problem is related to the type, more-so than the aircraft sales market in general. The C182 is always in demand due to it's utility, and decent condition/fairly-priced examples don't tend to last on the open market (if they make it to the open market at all). Other makes/models may not suffer from the purchase difficulties you're seeing. So, if you're set on that market segment, I doubt you'll see much relief on the pricing/availability. Only caveat I can think of could be with the ADS-B deadline and such, but it's probably not going to cause a big swing in aircraft values on the 182.
 
I bought my plane a year ago and it has increased in value nearly 75%... but no way I'd sell it regardless of value now... I just wouldn't be able to buy another one in this market. The high-performance Cessnas have crazy value right now and it seems to only be increasing. Maybe look into an early model 182, 50's and 60's. They're admittedly a bit uglier but still a great deal even in this market.
 
I'm right there with you, more recently been looking for a Piper Saratoga and been finding the same stuff. Both I called on this week already have deposits or were getting one within a day and I'm not going to make a rush decision to be 1st in line. Guess the best game is to be patient and wait for "right" one to come. Luckily in my case my father has a 182 I can fly whenever he's not flying it so I have a plane until I find my own. Good luck on your search! Something that might help, not sure if you have searched or asked around your local airport but that is how my father found his 182 a few years ago and got a pretty good deal due to a guy having to give up plane due to medical issues.
 
Groundpounder said:
I've been on the hunt for a good airplane since November. Mostly interested in 182's, but we've broadened our search lately to include 33 series Bonanza's. Seems like every airplane on the market is either over priced, has issues, or is sold by the time we get in contact with someone. When is this market going to start cooling off? Are we at the top right now? I'd love an airplane tomorrow, but I'd be willing to wait a year and rent or lease something if the prices and demand are going to start coming down.

Of course it's just a guess on anyone's part right now....
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If you are interested in a V-Tail, I know of an off market one that is quite nice with a good panel that the owner bought and never flies.

Email me.

Would also enjoy discussing the acquisition process with you.
 
I guess I don’t see the supply of older more affordable planes increasing. But if there are more pilots being trained and BadicMed, I could see a supply tightness, hence the price increase. I’d say mine appreciated about 50% in a year and a half. I say don’t wait. What you see as prices increasing, is really an old price that is no longer valid. Can prices drop? Sure. How long do you want to wait? 2 years? 5 years? 10?
 
Overpriced in relation to what? Reality or what you’re willing to pay?

Indeed there are some airplanes priced higher than what they will realistically bring but I think those are the exception rather than the norm. I see a lot of junk on the market but I also see a lot of airplanes that are priced about right, or close enough. It is next to impossible to find a smoking deal on an airplane so I’d put that thought out of your head now, if it is there.

Prices are trending up right now because the economy is doing well. Want to get a better deal on a plane? Hold onto your cash and wait for a downturn.
 
It's hard to say what the next downturn will look like or exactly when it will occur. The housing market appears to softened considerably, and the stock market has recovered from its funk but is well off of last year's highs. Unless there's a lot of hidden debt there's no reason that the next downturn should be severe.

Instead of focusing on the stock market, let's look at the airplane production figures, found on page 22 of the GAMA Annual Report. Look specifically at the single engine piston production column. Way back in 1959, the first year that figures were available, the United States produced 6,845 piston singles. Between then and 1981, the U. S makers typically produced between 6,000 and 14,000 piston singles. In 1982 the industry produced 2,871 singles, and production tailed off from there, where from 1986 to 1997 the production numbers were fewer than 1000 per year. From 1998 to 2008 production picked up to around 1,500 - 2,000 per year. In 2009 the production rate fell to under 1,000 aircraft and has not recovered since. Also, remember that approximately a quarter of those airplanes built in the U. S. are exported, and of the total produced about half were built by Cirrus.

2017 was the first year in quite a while that the number of GA pilots didn't decrease. This, coupled with the dismal production numbers, and I think you're seeing demand-pull inflation. Because so few airplanes are added to the fleet, and a number are lost each year due to crashes, export, neglect, and storms, I think you're going to see a market that continues to tighten on the more popular airplanes.
 
FormerHangie said:
Because so few airplanes are added to the fleet, and a number are lost each year due to crashes, export, neglect, and storms, I think you're going to see a market that continues to tighten on the more popular airplanes.
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Additionally, I think you're going to see a market that continues to tighten on good to excellent examples of the popular airframes. It is getting harder and harder to find good 40+ year old airplanes that the owners are maintaining properly. Even the above average "turnkey" airplanes often need work to bring them up to the same condition that you'd see if you bought a new or very lightly used late model plane. That type of condition has value and will likely be reflected with a significantly higher than average price for a specific type.
 
As someone who is actively looking for either a bonanza or a cirrus in this market. This sucks...
 
Maybe find a broker and him/her do the search for you. You will pay for the service but they will try to find you what you want so they will get paid
 
Mtns2Skies said:
I bought my plane a year ago and it has increased in value nearly 75%... but no way I'd sell it regardless of value now... I just wouldn't be able to buy another one in this market. The high-performance Cessnas have crazy value right now and it seems to only be increasing. Maybe look into an early model 182, 50's and 60's. They're admittedly a bit uglier but still a great deal even in this market.
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We're looking for a P or Q model 182, we don't want to get into those older airplanes if we can help it.

mondtster said:
Overpriced in relation to what? Reality or what you’re willing to pay?

Indeed there are some airplanes priced higher than what they will realistically bring but I think those are the exception rather than the norm. I see a lot of junk on the market but I also see a lot of airplanes that are priced about right, or close enough. It is next to impossible to find a smoking deal on an airplane so I’d put that thought out of your head now, if it is there.

Prices are trending up right now because the economy is doing well. Want to get a better deal on a plane? Hold onto your cash and wait for a downturn.
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I was hoping the dip in the stock market the end of last year was going to be part of a bigger downturn, and lead to a better aircraft buyers market, but alas it was not to be...yet. And I believe you about not being able to find a deal. It sucks, but I think that our choice is pay top dollar, or not buy an airplane.

AKBill said:
Maybe find a broker and him/her do the search for you. You will pay for the service but they will try to find you what you want so they will get paid
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I'd rather not deal with a broker. I can't imagine that working out well for anyone but the broker.
 
Groundpounder said:
I'd rather not deal with a broker. I can't imagine that working out well for anyone but the broker
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Well I've only dealt with one broker, and the was over 23 years ago. Bought my first plane and still own it. Worked out well for me. I would find someone that specializes in the type of aircraft you would like to purchase.

Brokers a lot of times will show you aircraft for sale and are not on the mass media market.
 
AKBill said:
Well I've only dealt with one broker, and the was over 23 years ago. Bought my first plane and still own it. Worked out well for me. I would find someone that specializes in the type of aircraft you would like to purchase.

Brokers a lot of times will show you aircraft for sale and are not on the mass media market.
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Well, maybe I will check into it. The limited experience I have had with brokers from this side of the purchase has been less than pleasant.
 
Groundpounder said:
...The limited experience I have had with brokers from this side of the purchase has been less than pleasant.
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Well, like any profession half of them are below average. ;)
But the good ones earn their pay. Hope you find one of the latter.

Personal, private airplanes are a discretionary expenditure. Nobody really needs one (pause, to avoid heavy projectiles from PoAers). We are late in one of the longest economic expansions in decades. Best time to buy an airplane is in the depths of a recession, or immediate aftermath. Perceptions of future income security play a big part in the pricing of expensive toys.
 
Question being I've never bought an airplane but have bought motorhomes & larger boats in the past. Do brokers in aviation work the same as in boating? In that for boats as a buyer you pay nothing to the broker as they are compensated by the seller based on the purchase price. Just curious...
 
Groundpounder said:
We're looking for a P or Q model 182, we don't want to get into those older airplanes if we can help it.
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you can't have your cake and eat it too. If you want a P or Q model you'll pay ridiculous prices, or you can have an older one, which is just as capable of an airplane at a better deal.
 
AnthonyS1 said:
As someone who is actively looking for either a bonanza or a cirrus in this market. This sucks...
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GRG55 said:
Well, like any profession half of them are below average. ;)
But the good ones earn their pay. Hope you find one of the latter.

Personal, private airplanes are a discretionary expenditure. Nobody really needs one (pause, to avoid heavy projectiles from PoAers). We are late in one of the longest economic expansions in decades. Best time to buy an airplane is in the depths of a recession, or immediate aftermath. Perceptions of future income security play a big part in the pricing of expensive toys.
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If we were in the depths of a recession, it would be the sellers/owners who would be saying, "This sucks..."
 
Mtns2Skies said:
you can't have your cake and eat it too. If you want a P or Q model you'll pay ridiculous prices, or you can have an older one, which is just as capable of an airplane at a better deal.
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I don't agree that the 50's and early 60's airplanes are just as capable, especially the narrow body 182's. But that is an argument for another thread.
 
Groundpounder said:
I don't agree that the 50's and early 60's airplanes are just as capable, especially the narrow body 182's. But that is an argument for another thread.
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They're lighter, faster, climb better, haul more, have stronger landing gear and have less stuff to break... And are cheaper. They don't look as nice and that's a large reason they are cheaper. Find one with a recently updated panel and you're good to go. This is PoA... We can thread drift as much as we'd like :). But the fact remains that if you want a P or a Q you're going to pay through the nose, so you can complain about it or make a compromise to get a plane that is 98% the same for far less.
 
things are going to continue to be hot.....so long as the economy is good and interest rates are reasonable. ;)
 
AnthonyS1 said:
As someone who is actively looking for either a bonanza or a cirrus in this market. This sucks...
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Don’t think of it that way. If the above predictions are correct, the values will stay flat to increasing. That’s not typical of hobby stuff (buy high, sell low). Sure, you didn’t get in at the bottom. Don’t dwell on that. If you can afford it, do it; If you need to compromise on looks (interior, paint), maybe do that. Buy older avionics knowing you’ll probably spend 50% more later, if you don’t want to spend now. Find an engine somewhere along the TBO continuum that makes sense to your wallet today, with the future cash flow taken into account. Think about fuel, maintenance, and insurance costs in the future cash.
 
There could potentially be some sell-offs as the baby boomers start dying off here soon, as morbid as that sounds. Could be a lot of aircraft sitting in a hangar that are being held onto despite not being used or known about until the estate is liquidated. Now, that could come with it's own costs to get a bird back in annual, but there could still be deals to be had.
 
yeah...yeah, and real estate could be getting cheaper too with the boomers selling.

Fat chance....o_O
 
I've been seriously looking at M20-E and -J models for the last 6 months and have noticed the same thing.
Prices really seem to be higher than a year ago.
 
FormerHangie said:
I just looked at a few Skylanes in Trade-a-Plane, and what you get for $100,000 is depressing. Ugh.
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Maybe that's the reason the official PoA airplane of choice is a Bo?
Just sayin' :D

There's the possibility airplane prices get hammered again in the next recession. Although prices for certain popular models have been rising recently the overall recovery of used prices and new production volume since the '08/'09 financial crisis has been poor.

Maybe attrition will take its toll on the remaining used fleet and put a floor under prices for well maintained examples. I am appalled at the number of airplanes I see languishing, unflown for years in some cases. Given the cost to rehabilitate I think a lot of these neglected planes will never fly again.
 
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Basic med has given new life into GA. Unless the market crashes, expect these prices to stick around for quit a while.
 
Is it so much that things are peaking, or just getting back to where they were prior to the '08 recession? IMO it seems that plane values sunk and stayed flat for years. It seems that only in recent years have values gone up much. With airplanes being discretionary spending for most people, it probably fluctuates with the economy.
 
SoonerAviator said:
There could potentially be some sell-offs as the baby boomers start dying off here soon, as morbid as that sounds. Could be a lot of aircraft sitting in a hangar that are being held onto despite not being used or known about until the estate is liquidated. Now, that could come with it's own costs to get a bird back in annual, but there could still be deals to be had.
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If you look at the airmen statistics, there is a bulge in the number of private pilots in the 55-75 age range, but it's maybe 20,000 or 25,000. Assuming the entire next generation doesn't forsake flying, that would mean that the number of pilots in those age ranges would decrease by 1000 - 1500 per year. What percentage of them are aircraft owners, I have no idea, but I wouldn't expect a flood on the market.
 
FormerHangie said:
If you look at the airmen statistics, there is a bulge in the number of private pilots in the 55-75 age range, but it's maybe 20,000 or 25,000. Assuming the entire next generation doesn't forsake flying, that would mean that the number of pilots in those age ranges would decrease by 1000 - 1500 per year. What percentage of them are aircraft owners, I have no idea, but I wouldn't expect a flood on the market.
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Agreed, that's why I said there could be potential for some sell-offs, but I wouldn't expect it to make much of a material impact on aircraft pricing. Just that some deals might come up in the next decade or so if one has the cash ready for it. You could pretty much make that claim for anyone who has the cash waiting for a deal to spring up.
 
More pilots, fewer aircraft.
I just raised the insurance hull value to keep up with inflation.
It took me a year of constant looking. Plus I had to compromise a little.

Buy your last plane first.
 
Depends how long you plan to keep the aircraft,airplane sales are like any other market ,we have highs and lows.
 
I am 56. There are alot of airplanes owned by my age and up that are underused - 60+ year old pilots do alot of hanger flying as they get older.

Be patient - as we die off our widows will flood the market with our airplanes.
 
Stephen Shore said:
I am 56. There are alot of airplanes owned by my age and up that are underused - 60+ year old pilots do alot of hanger flying as they get older.

Be patient - as we die off our widows will flood the market with our airplanes.
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I hope they'll be able to keep their airplanes airworthy, it would be a shame to see them decay until they're not flyable.
 
There's never a good time to buy an airplane. If the economy is down, so, too, is your confidence that you'll continue to earn a good wage so you wouldn't want to buy then, either. Buy what you can afford when you're ready and be glad you're part of a small group of people who get to own and fly an airplane! Just my two cents.
 
The used LSA market doesnt seem to be behaving the same way. Lots of depreciated low time LSA sitting around. Because LSA?

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