Toilet Paper

Matthew said:
Opening the floodgates on May 1 isn't realistically going to happen, literally or figuratively. Some states or some counties (especially rural areas) may give the go-ahead to reopen business as usual, and nobody may see a difference other than the barbershop will have a line.

Other places may give the go-ahead, too, but people will still be hesitant to go out into crowds so even if a bar or restaurant re-opens they may see reduced numbers.

Schools are already done for the year, so that's a non-factor.

The big businesses (sports and large concert venues) will have to figure out a way they can re-start, get people to actually come to the events, and figure out how to handle the bad publicity they will get when there is a rise in COVID cases because of it.

Since this is the TP thread: I have been checking local supplies and using that as sign of how people are beginning to get used to being out of work, at home, or both. And I'm seeing more and more stock on shelves. I suppose that's a good thing, it's kind of important, but if it's also a sign that people are showing an attitude of resignation then that's probably not good at all. When people lose hope of getting back to work, especially after a long period of unemployment followed by "finally!!" followed by "how am I going to pay the bills now that I'm unemployed again?", that's not a good thing.
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Absolutely agreed that we will not see the floodgates open May 1! Just even with that "best case scenario now, it still won't save many businesses.
 
We are rationing it at one sheet per day, per person. Of course, we've converted to metric, so that sheet is A1 sized.
 
jsstevens said:
Absolutely agreed that we will not see the floodgates open May 1! Just even with that "best case scenario now, it still won't save many businesses.
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Harsh thought, but many were headed there anyway.

Some businesses are “compatible with current events” and some aren’t.

It’s a race for the ones that can adapt and make themselves compatible to pivot and do it first now.

Going to be a lot of people re-evaluating what they spent money and time on, too — even if you opened them all up magically tomorrow.

Some folks also got wake up calls on their debt load and may reprioritize along those lines. Many businesses included. The risk attached to all debt was always there but they got a margin call the backward way on the income side.

“I’ll always be able to make that payment. That’s cheap!” Ya know?
 
denverpilot said:
Harsh thought, but many were headed there anyway.

Some businesses are “compatible with current events” and some aren’t.

It’s a race for the ones that can adapt and make themselves compatible to pivot and do it first now.

Going to be a lot of people re-evaluating what they spent money and time on, too — even if you opened them all up magically tomorrow.

Some folks also got wake up calls on their debt load and may reprioritize along those lines. Many businesses included. The risk attached to all debt was always there but they got a margin call the backward way on the income side.

“I’ll always be able to make that payment. That’s cheap!” Ya know?
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People are finding out what really wasn't essential. Maybe that's a good thing.
 
Scored a twelve pack today. Not our normal brand, but it's what was on the shelves. At this store there is a limit of two packages per customer, people were still buying two of the largest packages in stock, months, maybe a year's worth, of TP. So some people are still over-buying/hoarding.

I bought the one twelve pack like a considerate, reasonable human. So we're stocked well enough for a while.
 
Fiveslide said:
Scored a twelve-pack today. Not our normal brand, but it's what was on the shelves. At this store there is a limit of two packages per customer, people were still buying two of the largest packages in stock, months, maybe a year's worth, of TP. So some people are still over-buying/hoarding.

I bought the one twelve-pack like a considerate, reasonable human. So we're stocked well enough for a while.
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Saw a gal walk out of the Smart and Final with a pack of TP and paper towels when I was walking in... a good sign. while I was in there she came back and got another set and checked out, and then when I was checking out she was behind me again with another set. For the darndest reason, she looked very familiar... and then it dawned on me, she made the front page of the Pople of Walmart website. Some people o_O
 
denverpilot said:
Probably why Apple announced they have a $400 iPhone again today? :)
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Haha, but let's face it... it's just an iPhone 8 with a chip swap. I'm guessing the real reason is that they're trying to phase out the A11 chip.
 
asicer said:
Haha, but let's face it, it's just an iPhone 8 with a chip swap. I'm guessing the real reason is that they're trying to phase out the A11 chip.
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Not a bad value for what it is, though. That chip is identical to iPhone 11.

It’s a mid-range phone killer for anybody who wants that but was thinking about leaving iOS.

Quite a challenge to Google and Motorola.

And OnePlus went full $1000+ device yesterday or the day before so they’re out of the mid-high price point market now.

But I think a lot of folks who want iOS without the premium price will snag this SE if they’ve been looking for an upgrade. Also have a friend who hates the giant phones, and this one stays “pocket sized”. He’s been holding back at iPhone 7.

Maybe the real value here is snagging one used from a piddler who has to try everything new. It’ll be a $200-$250 iOS device with a modern chip, on Craigslist.

Apple will jam 5G into the flagships however, if that’s someone’s interest and they live under a tower.

Anybody who got used to facial unlock or needs the ridiculous cameras won’t want it, though. Touch sensor and a real home button still has value to others though. Haptics are great but they do have limitations.

Has all the other stuff also, dual SIM via eSIM and dual speaker output, fast charge in 30 min with bigger 18W charger (shameful they don’t include those), and wireless charging ... basically all their flagship features in a physically smaller device.

Priced to whack the mid-price switchers tempted by Android stuff
 
denverpilot said:
Not a bad value for what it is, though. That chip is identical to iPhone 11.
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It's a smart move on Apple's part. With the COVID-19 slowdown, shipments of the A13 chips in the iPhone 11 would probably be down, which wrecks margins. With the chip-swap, they get to eke out more mileage from the iPhone 7/8 NRE and improve their A13 margins through volume. And they get to narrow their supply chain by phasing out the A11 chip. Meanwhile, they whack the market in the ways that you outlined.

It's a win-win-win situation.
 
We got approached today to buy hatching eggs from a broiler company to break into liquid egg. Eggs from 2 million layers for 8 weeks.

That is roughly 80,000,000 meat chickens that won’t get to the food supply later this year. My company is on a path to produce 40,000,000 fewer pounds of liquid egg in the Q2 2020 than what we had forecast in January.


No joke kids, big food is having big problems.
 
One of the nicest things about HEB is that they are only in Texas and Mexico.

The TP I bought today (only a four roll pack!) was from Mexico. No Inglés on the package at all...
 
I always stock up big on things like TP, where you know you'll use it eventually, and you can get it in bulk for a little cheaper, and I hate going to the store, so I buy whatever I can in amounts to avoid going back as long as possible. So when this hit, I had a good solid supply and I wasn't worried. And then I started looking around to restock, and it wasn't happening. Still today you can't put it on your "pick up" or "delivery" orders for Wal-Mart, Meijer, or Kroger. You have to go into a store, and your best bet is a Dollar General, or a CVS or Walgreens, a small nowhere store that people forget about, and you might get a pack or two. Even those all ran out for about a month. Now I've started finding it again, thankfully, but it's sure not back to normal yet.

I drink a lot of water and stuff. I'm not using and washing my washcloths every time I go to the bathroom (gross), for every situation a lady gets into in the bathroom, and I'm not hopping into the shower every time it's 'needed' either. Can't do that out at the airport, or at the FBO you're hanging out at waiting for people to come back, or the restaurant where you face an emergency. If I wanted to live in a country where they do that as the norm, and the smell of urine and feces is often wafting around in buildings and when people walk by, I would. But I don't. I like toilet paper. They even have disposable wet wipes for those who don't just like dry paper for every situation. But going without any TP? No thanks.

Meanwhile, if anyone needs any, Target seems to restock pretty fast. ;)
 
James_Dean said:
We got approached today to buy hatching eggs from a broiler company to break into liquid egg. Eggs from 2 million layers for 8 weeks.

That is roughly 80,000,000 meat chickens that won’t get to the food supply later this year. My company is on a path to produce 40,000,000 fewer pounds of liquid egg in the Q2 2020 than what we had forecast in January.


No joke kids, big food is having big problems.
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I imagine you didn't buy them because of your reduced production. I imagine no company will buy them for the same reasons.

I've seen a lot of people getting their own chickens for the first time because they're a great food source. A lot of hobby farm style chicken coops are sold out. Looks like you can still get coops on Amazon, but in-store purchases, like at tractor supply, are hard to find.

That company's best bet is probably go ahead and hatch them and try to sell the chicks to individuals even though that is something that particular company has likely never had to do before.
 
Fiveslide said:
I imagine you didn't buy them because of your reduced production. I imagine no company will buy them for the same reasons.

I've seen a lot of people getting their own chickens for the first time because they're a great food source. A lot of hobby farm style chicken coops are sold out. Looks like you can still get coops on Amazon, but in-store purchases, like at tractor supply, are hard to find.

That company's best bet is probably go ahead and hatch them and try to sell the chicks to individuals even though that is something that particular company has likely never had to do before.
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I’m sorry, but there are so many things wrong with this. Just...no.
 
Fiveslide said:
I've seen a lot of people getting their own chickens for the first time because they're a great food source. A lot of hobby farm style chicken coops are sold out. Looks like you can still get coops on Amazon, but in-store purchases, like at tractor supply, are hard to find.
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Wait until these people need to go back to work, want to travel, or decide their hobby farm is too much work...

Unfortunately I can also see this happening with Covid pets people are acquiring.
 
Everskyward said:
Wait until these people need to go back to work, want to travel, or decide their hobby farm is too much work...

Unfortunately I can also see this happening with Covid pets people are acquiring.
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Whether that's a good thing or a bad thing depends on how well the food supply chain holds up.

Rich
 
James_Dean said:
We got approached today to buy hatching eggs from a broiler company to break into liquid egg. Eggs from 2 million layers for 8 weeks.

That is roughly 80,000,000 meat chickens that won’t get to the food supply later this year. My company is on a path to produce 40,000,000 fewer pounds of liquid egg in the Q2 2020 than what we had forecast in January.


No joke kids, big food is having big problems.
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From your perspective, is the challenge that the middle of the supply chain can't package eggs into consumer-level packaging or is there just an overall decline in demand? I haven't been to the store in over a month so I don't even know if the store shelves are stocked in dozen-sized packaging. I would think that we're still consuming eggs, but maybe commercial food retailers (restaurants, etc.) are more wasteful than home cooks which has decayed the demand? Of course I'm sure there is a drop of some amount of demand because so many Americans don't even know how to boil an egg...
 
Everskyward said:
Wait until these people need to go back to work, want to travel, or decide their hobby farm is too much work...

Unfortunately I can also see this happening with Covid pets people are acquiring.
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I had that exact conversation with my wife earlier this week. I said there will be a spike in folks showing up at the farmers market this summer trying to sell their 5 tomatoes and two bushels of green beans.. then they'll realize how much work it is and they'll disappear quickly.
 
CJones said:
From your perspective, is the challenge that the middle of the supply chain can't package eggs into consumer-level packaging or is there just an overall decline in demand? I haven't been to the store in over a month so I don't even know if the store shelves are stocked in dozen-sized packaging. I would think that we're still consuming eggs, but maybe commercial food retailers (restaurants, etc.) are more wasteful than home cooks which has decayed the demand? Of course I'm sure there is a drop of some amount of demand because so many Americans don't even know how to boil an egg...
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It is both.

There is no separate middle supply chain in eggs. I buy the baby chick and I deliver finished product to the retail store. There are 320,000,000 egg laying hens in the US. 55% goes to retail, 12% goes to food service, and 33% gets turned into liquid egg for ingredients, patties, restaurant, QSR etc. Of those 320,000,000 about 86mm are cage free.

If you assume that retail demand is up 20%(to 66% of the total supply) that would require an 2,300,000 million egg cartons per day. The machine capacity to wash, inspect, and sort all those eggs is stretched to the limit.

The demand for the 45% of eggs that went to liquid and food service is down by 40% - 90% depending upon segment. Some of those eggs can shift over, but the barriers are significant.
 
Has anyone ordered anything on amazon lately? I ordered a gift for my brother’s birthday on March 25 and the estimated date of arrival is April 26.
 
@James_Dean

My wife bought liquid eggs for the first time today. Two gallons worth... She is doing her part to help!

Tim
 
jordane93 said:
Has anyone ordered anything on amazon lately? I ordered a gift for my brother’s birthday on March 25 and the estimated date of arrival is April 26.
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Yes. "non-essential" stuff is getting delayed.

Tim
 
Everskyward said:
Wait until these people need to go back to work, want to travel, or decide their hobby farm is too much work...
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Best case, people continue to care for them. Middle ground, turn them loose and the circle of life continues, a predator gets them. Worst case, I hope people don't starve them to death when they have to go back to real life.

For a lot of people, that are trying this for the first time, predators may take out their chickens before they lay the first egg. We had chickens before this started, wife and I have both had them on and off throughout our lives. Kinda glad now that we picked it up again a year ago.
 
Fiveslide said:
Best case, people continue to care for them. Middle ground, turn them loose and the circle of life continues, a predator gets them. Worst case, I hope people don't starve them to death when they have to go back to real life.

For a lot of people, that are trying this for the first time, predators may take out their chickens before they lay the first egg. We had chickens before this started, wife and I have both had them on and off throughout our lives. Kinda glad now that we picked it up again a year ago.
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JOOC, have you ever done the math on the all-in cost for you to produce a dozen eggs? I find this a fascinating case study, as I've raised my own cattle and hogs and am always looking at the cost vs. quality. I've never been able to have a backyard flock due to bio-security concerns with my business obviously.
 
James_Dean said:
JOOC, have you ever done the math on the all-in cost for you to produce a dozen eggs? I find this a fascinating case study, as I've raised my own cattle and hogs and am always looking at the cost vs. quality. I've never been able to have a backyard flock due to bio-security concerns with my business obviously.
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done both cattle and chickens....production meat (grocery store) is always cheaper. However, I know what I gots in my freezer....and have the scars with the blood and sweat. lol ;)

We didn't do it to "save" money....it's more expensive. However, next go around I will just buy one from my local butcher. I'll pay extra for a local kid to raise my beef....it's not worth the hassle.
 

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James_Dean said:
JOOC, have you ever done the math on the all-in cost for you to produce a dozen eggs? I find this a fascinating case study, as I've raised my own cattle and hogs and am always looking at the cost vs. quality. I've never been able to have a backyard flock due to bio-security concerns with my business obviously.
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Oh, Lord no! It's not cheaper to raise chickens for the eggs. It may pay off in the long run, but short-term it's more expensive. Didn't really know why we did it until this happened and we're the only people in the neighborhood with eggs.
 
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