Tantalum
Final Approach
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San_Diego_Pilot
Yeah, I feel like I'm missing something. How many people die from diabetes, cancer, the flu, freaking car accidents. I. DO NOT. understand this.
To mask or not to mask?
- Thread starter Arnold
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No ordinary dust mask would have saved me from the nuclear farts I was exposed to on my flight from Atlanta last week...
Probably from "those people' who travel in pajama bottoms and flip flops...
Probably from "those people' who travel in pajama bottoms and flip flops...
Kenny Phillips
Final Approach
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Kenny Phillips
When the CDC and WHO make these statements/predictions/recommendations, it's based on what could happen if nothing is done. Things are being done, so it will (hopefully) look as if it was no big deal. Remember the Y2K bug computer software scare? The only reason it didn't happen is because people (and I'm one of them) fixed the code. Otherwise, it would have been a mess (even in the military, where I fixed the code.)
genna
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ТУ-104
What you’re missing is yet unknown potential of this. It may not live up to the hype. And I certainly hope it wouldn’t. And it’s not a pandemic yet. Panic is obviously premature and is never really the answer. But dismissing it based on only 2700 deaths and not being as bad as flu is also silly
if, however, it becomes pandemic with infection rates even 1/100 that of a flu, it will not only cause quite a lot of direct suffering, but massive economic impact on our connected world.
Zeldman
Touchdown! Greaser!
This one should be good for something.......
midwestpa24
Final Approach
You can't just look at the total deaths. You have to look at the ratio of infected vs deaths, and also the rapid spread of the virus. This particular virus outbreak was unheard of two months ago. In that time its infected 80,000+ and killed nearly 3,000. In the big picture, that is very rapid growth, and a high fatality rate. What makes some viruses even more dangerous is a longer incubation period (time between getting infected and showing symptoms) and being infectious without symptoms. That is what made the most recent Ebola scare even worse, you could be exposed to it, and infectious, and not even know it, for days or even weeks. Hard to get and stay in front of a virus like that.
German guy
Cleared for Takeoff
As some already mentioned, the death rate of COVID-19 is at least 100 time higher than that of a flu. As of now, it appears that the average death rate is somewhere around 2%, it is however significantly higher for older people:
- 60 - 69 3.6%
- 70 - 79 8%
- 80 - 89 14.8%
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/
I'm still in a relatively low risk age group, but am concerned that I might spread it to some older persons, e. g. at the next EAA chapter meeting, where the majority of the people is already in their 70s and 80s.
There is also evidence, that in some cases the incubation period is significantly longer than 14 days, one researcher even suggests that it could be as long as 24 days: https://www.businessinsider.com/wuhan-coronavirus-symptoms-24-days-after-infection-2020-2
While people are the most contagious once symptoms become evident, there is a very high chance that they will already spread the virus before then. This means the people could be walking around for several weeks, spreading the virus, without showing any symptoms. Also, in most cases the symptoms are similar to a regular flu, so people might show COVID-19 symptoms without even knowing.
I wonder where this "wash your hands and you're good" thing is coming from. The CDC clearly states that while it is possible to get the virus from touching things and then the face, the virus mainly spreads directly from person to person via droplets. This means the sneezing guy, standing up to 6 feet away from you, might have just infected you and everybody else around him, with COVID-19. Now, think about with how many other persons each of us will be in contact with over the days and weeks and multiply this with a death rate of 2%.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/about/transmission.html
- 60 - 69 3.6%
- 70 - 79 8%
- 80 - 89 14.8%
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/
I'm still in a relatively low risk age group, but am concerned that I might spread it to some older persons, e. g. at the next EAA chapter meeting, where the majority of the people is already in their 70s and 80s.
There is also evidence, that in some cases the incubation period is significantly longer than 14 days, one researcher even suggests that it could be as long as 24 days: https://www.businessinsider.com/wuhan-coronavirus-symptoms-24-days-after-infection-2020-2
While people are the most contagious once symptoms become evident, there is a very high chance that they will already spread the virus before then. This means the people could be walking around for several weeks, spreading the virus, without showing any symptoms. Also, in most cases the symptoms are similar to a regular flu, so people might show COVID-19 symptoms without even knowing.
I wonder where this "wash your hands and you're good" thing is coming from. The CDC clearly states that while it is possible to get the virus from touching things and then the face, the virus mainly spreads directly from person to person via droplets. This means the sneezing guy, standing up to 6 feet away from you, might have just infected you and everybody else around him, with COVID-19. Now, think about with how many other persons each of us will be in contact with over the days and weeks and multiply this with a death rate of 2%.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/about/transmission.html
write-stuff
En-Route
Why would they do that?
MauleSkinner
Touchdown! Greaser!
I don’t know...you’ll have to ask them why they do.
midwestpa24
Final Approach
I've also seen suggested that the virus can live outside of the body on objects for days as well, which adds to spread. Most viruses can't live outside of a host for very long.
Tantalum
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San_Diego_Pilot
This is honestly what it feels like:
But on a serious note, this info graphic puts things in perspective:
So it has a rapid infection rate and if you're elderly you might die.. in comparison, roughly 10,000 to 60,000 people die of he flu each year, with 9 million to 45 million being infected, and around 1.3 MILLION people die in car accidents each year. Figures come straight from the CDC https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html and https://www.asirt.org/safe-travel/road-safety-facts/
Sorry, but I have zero concern for something that kills a small portion of those infected, and seems to infect (and kill) mostly elderly people, who already have weakened immune systems
It's a contagious bug, yes. And sometimes when you get sick you die. That's life.
*The media terrorizing the populace for the last two months provides no productive value. If there is a serious concern, that follow the CDC's recommendation.. at least in a properly developed country like the the United States we've been able to pretty much stay infection free.
midwestpa24
Final Approach
Don't get me wrong, I'm not worked up or worried about it in the least. I agree the media is also blowing it out of proportion at this time, but thats what they do best. But I do see why the disease centers are paying special attention to it. Not something to ignore, but not something to worry about personally either.
write-stuff
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Are you suggesting that the CDC is prone to fear mongering? That's Alex Jones-style conspiracy nonsense.
MauleSkinner
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Yes, but probably through ignorance rather than intention.
German guy
Cleared for Takeoff
@Tantalum
Keep in mind that the number of infected people in Wuhan is only relatively low because the Chinese pretty much shut down the entire city almost immediately. People don't even leave their houses anymore and if the government finds someone with even mild symptoms, the person will be forcefully(!!) admitted to a hospital.
None of this is practical here in the freedom loving States of America.
I bet that there are already thousands of infected people all over the US, unknowingly spreading the virus. I don't see any reason why it should not spread at least as widely as a regular flu. Actually, quite the contrary.
According to the CDC around 34,200 people died from the flu during the 2018 / 19 flu season:
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html
Wouldn't you think that it might be a slight bit of a reason for concern that we will likely soon have a virus spreading like the flu in the US, that is however at least 100 times as deadly?
Keep in mind that the number of infected people in Wuhan is only relatively low because the Chinese pretty much shut down the entire city almost immediately. People don't even leave their houses anymore and if the government finds someone with even mild symptoms, the person will be forcefully(!!) admitted to a hospital.
None of this is practical here in the freedom loving States of America.
I bet that there are already thousands of infected people all over the US, unknowingly spreading the virus. I don't see any reason why it should not spread at least as widely as a regular flu. Actually, quite the contrary.
According to the CDC around 34,200 people died from the flu during the 2018 / 19 flu season:
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html
Wouldn't you think that it might be a slight bit of a reason for concern that we will likely soon have a virus spreading like the flu in the US, that is however at least 100 times as deadly?
midwestpa24
Final Approach
Or as with most government agencies, justifying their continued existence, and ever growing budget.
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chartbundle
Personally, the guys who did my house paint didn't mask, they preferred their skill for not hitting the trim when painting the walls. I, on the other hand, have to mask everything otherwise I end up with paint everywhere.
write-stuff
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So maybe we should just defund the CDC and shut it down? I mean if we aren't getting our money's worth, why keep them around?
MauleSkinner
Touchdown! Greaser!
Unfortunately, like most government agencies, it’s not “we” that decides to fund or defund.
write-stuff
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Well, that kinda skirts the issue. But ok, I'll make it simpler. Would you suggest that the CDC be defunded and shut down?
German guy
Cleared for Takeoff
CDC's warnings appear pretty factual to me.
I wouldn't consider their warnings hysterical, considering that the virus could potentially spread like the flu what means that 35 mio out of 300 million Americans could become infected, resulting in around 700,000 deaths if the death rate stays at around 2%.
I also don't think that the Chinese would have taken such drastic measures if they wouldn't see the virus as a major thread. Their entire economy is suffering badly from this and the population is also getting increasingly frustrated.
genna
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ТУ-104
Chinese certainly taking this thing seriously now. And this is a society that can and has shut down entire province to try to contain it. And is failing to do so. And their economy is already suffering(and our stock market as well). If it comes here in numbers, i'm sure you will fill better about how many people die from car accidents. I'm sure Italians feel that way already.
Nobody is saying that you should freak out and panic, but flu statistics are not much relevant to COVID-19 discussion. It is a virus that has a huge potential to kill millions of people and severely disrupt world's and our economy. If it doesn't go away on its own as at this point we(humans) have no apparent way of stopping it soon. Will it? We don't know.
MauleSkinner
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That skirts the issue as well. Do you consider fear mongering to be part of “getting your money’s worth?
it’s like passing a law that has two unrelated parts...make it a requirement to have $50million in insurance on your airplane, and make it illegal to machine gun children in the streets. If you oppose it, you’re clearly against the safety of our children.
PaulS
Touchdown! Greaser!
If they didn’t try to hide it when it was first discovered we’d probably be further ahead of it. Then comes the question of how did it originate and where did the infection originate. All issues with what is basically a closed autocratic society.
steingar
Taxi to Parking
Very few viruses are actually contagious prior to the onset of symptoms. The only ones that can that comes to mind are HIV and HPV (by the way, if you have young daughters please give them the HPV vaccine). Coronavirus is mainly spread through droplets that come out of your respiratory system. Once cells begin shedding virus into your respiratory tract you will be symptomatic. Even if the virus has a long latency (something of which I am not in any way convinced, since many infections are asymptomatic) doing said latency it is unlikely that you'll shedding much if any viral particles.
write-stuff
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It's a question. Skirting the issue occurs when one replies obliquely, avoiding the question. The rest of your statement is a straw man.
So, I'm not skirting anything, I'm asking. If you don't want to answer, that's fine.
MauleSkinner
Touchdown! Greaser!
If the choice is fear monger it or defund, I’d defund.
write-stuff
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I didn't ask a multiple choice question. I just asked if you thought that the CDC should be defunded. That's a yes or no kind of thing.
genna
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Correct. Expanding on that: Do we trust their current figures? Is it really 80,000/2700?
My point was that at this point they definitely do not think this is nothing and are going to pretty drastic measures to try to contain it. But we in USA should just ignore that and keep showing flu statistics for comparison. /s
By the way, even if you take the facts presented at face value, what you have is 10,000 healed and 2,700 dead. That is a hell of a lot more than 2% mortality rate. The other 70,000 sick cannot be counted against mortality rate as they neither healed nor died... i.e. they can go either way.. in theory
Arnold
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That is what I have children for. Ain't love grand.
MauleSkinner
Touchdown! Greaser!
then your question is irrelevant to the discussion.
Juliet Hotel
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I've always heard that the use of masks by those in surgery is intended to impede the spread of infection from those wearing the mask to the patient, not the other way around. When I went in for a checkup a few weeks back, the doctor was wearing a mask and said he was doing so because he still recovering from a minor bug and did not want to risk infecting others. In a closed in pressurized cabin, I would not expect a cheap mask to be very effective at protecting from any kind of airborne infection.
write-stuff
En-Route
Actually, this is kind of humorous. You make a statement, I ask a question about it, and you decide my question is irrelevant. Not much of a "discussion", huh? You know, all you had to say was that you didn't want to answer.
MauleSkinner
Touchdown! Greaser!
I don’t believe your original implication that “if it’s not perfect you must think it should be shut down” is correct. But I can’t convince you that any form of compromise is acceptable. Clearly you think children should be machine gunned in the streets.
write-stuff
En-Route
Sure you can. I was simply trying to understand your position on the subject.
It sounded as if you believed the CDC was fear mongering to justify their existence. Did I understand that correctly? (Boy, I hope I'm not asking another irrelevant question.)
MauleSkinner
Touchdown! Greaser!
No...I said they’re fear mongering, probably out of ignorance rather than intent.
I also clarified my position on the subject, but you claimed it was a straw man...which is apparently different than irrelevant. And when I answered your question with the conditions of my answer, you rejected that as well. In fact, it exactly demonstrates that my “straw man” argument is what’s happening.
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I understand the previously mentioned fitting issues...and as I understand it these paper masks do little if anything to filter viruses because a virus is so small....
still I'd rather be wearing one if someone sneezes on me at short range!
I probably wouldn't wear one in your case though...but I wouldn't fault you if you did....or if you keep one handy to put on just in case you see some suspicious sick looking folks!
just intuition here.... but seems to me it's a game of numbers.....
similar to the idea that "24 hours" after starting a round of antibiotics = no longer contagious... seems to me that the body is still fighting off the little buggers...there might be fewer in a drop of spit but there are still probably some. transfer 1 little virus.... a healthy recipient can probably fight it off...transfer 20? 100? .... There's bound to be some threshold when they'll multiply faster than I can fight them
so...
just because a person isn't showing symptoms yet...don't they still have the virus multiplying inside them... in their fluids or breath?
Tantalum
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Not really. I don't get the flu hysteria either. It's a disproportionate hysteria, like a when a plane crashes people freak out and are terrified to fly, but they'll still suck down a bic mac and biggie size *diet* coke every day for lunch, be 100 lbs overweight, and probably die early from some kind of heart disease or complication. People are scared of things like the flu, flying, etc., because there's a lack of control. But they'll gladly sit in their car and text message away while driving, smoking a cigarette, and inhaling for lunch a meal that will probably end up killing them eventually. Yet at the same time they hear the the news media screaming at them that WUHAN and CORONA are bad and you have some dude now in the middle of nowhere, with probably 0.000001% chance of contracting it, spreading their gossip on facebook and wearing a surgical mask to WalMart
..but they really didn't.. they're embarrassed now and want to appear half competent in their containment of it:
Exactly. And without a Spin Zone I really can't say more about China.
Checkout_my_Six
Touchdown! Greaser!
so....who was that masked.....man?
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