The weather countdown thread

cgrab

cgrab

Pattern Altitude
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cgrab
Day O-10
Even though the show starts on the 28th, I'm making my plans to fly in early. I'll pick the best day between Friday and Sunday but right now none of them look great.
 
Too far out to determine anything. I'll make more solid plans as the date approaches.
 
10 day forecast shows 60% chance of rain on the 26th and 80% chance of t-storms on the 27th. Might suck for those who fly in those days. But it probably will change in the next week.
 
I have zero confidence in any forecast this far out. If weather allows I plan to fly in Monday the 28th. Depending on who is with, it may be just for the day. My backup plan is to drive the 2 hours.
 
Day O-9
It looks like the best day to travel now is Friday with overcast predicted everywhere on Saturday. I'm sure it will change but everyone planning a cross country flight should be checking the weather as far out as possible.
 
Too far out to make a rational decision,the way the fronts are running.
 
O-8
Well with 5 or 6 days to go before things start picking up at Oshkosh the weather seems to be settling out to good on Friday and bad on Saturday.
 
O-7
The Friday weather seems to be holding. Looks like the Cessnas-2-Oshkosh might get a little wet on Saturday.
 
Trending damp on Saturday right now. Hopefully if it does rain it gets it over with then moves on. In most cases, at least part of the day is flyable VFR.
 
O-6
Not only does it look like Friday is the day to travel but light rain may persist throughout the weekend. Don't forget to bring boards for under your wheels so you don't get stuck.
 
O-5
The stagnant weather system bringing the rain on Saturday may move a little quicker than thought before and brign some rian late Friday. Looks like the whole weekend will be wet.
 
From here the weather looks great! Pleasant temps all week in OSH! Lows in the 60's highs in the 70's and low 80's. Perfect!
 
Looks like the possibility of T-storms next Wednesday. The day I am planning on flying in. Hopefully I'll get there early and settled in before it happens, and that the ground gets dried out from the weekend rains.
 
A few years ago I was one of the lucky ones to have a hard surface to park on at Sloshgosh. My RV-12 was on display at the Rotax tent. There were kids floating on air mattresses in the ditches with running water. The ground was muddy, but dried out in a day. That was a challenging year.
 
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We're not forecast to be clear of storms until Tuesday. Probably wind up picking my way between them. Oh well, why should this year be different than any other?
 
Can't convince the wife that north 40 camping won't be miserable all weekend so it looks like I'm out.:dunno:
 
JB1842 said:
Looks like the possibility of T-storms next Wednesday. The day I am planning on flying in. Hopefully I'll get there early and settled in before it happens, and that the ground gets dried out from the weekend rains.
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If its anything like their forecast yesterday of 70% chance of Thunderstorms but nobody in the area even got a drop of rain.. you should be good to go. :D
 
FredFenster said:
If its anything like their forecast yesterday of 70% chance of Thunderstorms but nobody in the area even got a drop of rain.. you should be good to go. :D
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My softball game was cut short last night due to rain in Milwaukee. But it was far from a thunderstorm. If it wasn't for a dr appointment Tuesday afternoon, I would fly up earlier.
 
I try not to leave myself with a one day window ever. Too hard to get a VFR day any time of the year, and I'm almost always disappointed. Two days works well in summer, if one day is bad often the next will be fine. Often, though not always.
 
steingar said:
I try not to leave myself with a one day window ever. Too hard to get a VFR day any time of the year, and I'm almost always disappointed. Two days works well in summer, if one day is bad often the next will be fine. Often, though not always.
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One of the benefits of having my homefield 40 miles south of OSH. I can pick and choose days or just drive there if I have to.
 
JB1842 said:
My softball game was cut short last night due to rain in Milwaukee. But it was far from a thunderstorm. If it wasn't for a dr appointment Tuesday afternoon, I would fly up earlier.
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And at the same time, in Pewaukee (work), then Milwaukee (airport), then Germantown (home), I never saw a drop. I did see one upwardly mobile cloud that looked like it might let go of some electrons and/or some raindrops, but it was a ways away.

As far as the show... Man, do you people always look for ways to cancel flights? :rofl: The only forecast I trust is the GFS MOS that goes for about 3 days out... Until Saturday 7 AM right now. Friday looks good with increasing T-storm chances at night. Saturday and after... Who the heck knows?!? The weather guessers often don't even get the next 24 hours right, much less a longer forecast! Sure, we have 10-day forecasts on the news at night too, but I'd say that if they get things right beyond 4 days it's purely luck and probably happens less than 50% of the time.

Welcome to Wisconsin. Don't like the weather? Wait 5 minutes. Yesterday was steamy and hot with widely scattered storms (we went over 90 degrees for the first time this year, high humidity too) and today's high will be 72 and it's freakin' beautiful. (Hope for more of that next week.)
 
flyingcheesehead said:
And at the same time, in Pewaukee (work), then Milwaukee (airport), then Germantown (home), I never saw a drop. I did see one upwardly mobile cloud that looked like it might let go of some electrons and/or some raindrops, but it was a ways away.

As far as the show... Man, do you people always look for ways to cancel flights? :rofl: The only forecast I trust is the GFS MOS that goes for about 3 days out... Until Saturday 7 AM right now. Friday looks good with increasing T-storm chances at night. Saturday and after... Who the heck knows?!? The weather guessers often don't even get the next 24 hours right, much less a longer forecast! Sure, we have 10-day forecasts on the news at night too, but I'd say that if they get things right beyond 4 days it's purely luck and probably happens less than 50% of the time.

Welcome to Wisconsin. Don't like the weather? Wait 5 minutes. Yesterday was steamy and hot with widely scattered storms (we went over 90 degrees for the first time this year, high humidity too) and today's high will be 72 and it's freakin' beautiful. (Hope for more of that next week.)
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I'm not looking for ways to cancel flights. I'll get there! Todays weather would be perfect for next week. The rain last night wasn't long, but it came down pretty good. I play at 88th and Burleigh.
 
Ya'll know airplanes are waterproof right?! :lol:

Just don't fly in the red or worse radar returns, try to avoid em by 20nm, and stay below the freezing level unless equipped. :dunno:
 
Thursday looks to be a promising day to fly to Osh. I might have to leave a day early so avoid all the T storms and rains.
 
How's the drainage in the north 40? If we get a lot of rain, would there be standing water?
 
steingar said:
We're not forecast to be clear of storms until Tuesday. Probably wind up picking my way between them. Oh well, why should this year be different than any other?
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Well, here's my opportunity to put pressure on you and tell you that She Who Must Be Obeyed expects us to be at Camp Bacon to help her prepare Jambalaya, Chili, and Margaritas by 3:30 PM Tuesday! The airshow is over by what, 6:00PM? You asked for an ETA!

Really, fly safe, whenever you come!
 
O-4
So it looks like there will be rain for the next few days in Oshkosh. I depart at dawn tomorrrow and plan to get in before the rain but may have to get my plane wet in the air and on the ground.
Y'all fly safe now and I'll see you there.
 
dans2992 said:
How's the drainage in the north 40? If we get a lot of rain, would there be standing water?
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It's normally pretty good. Sloshkosh was the result of repeated heavy rains that had much of the state flooded. Hell, Gen. Mitchell International was closed at the beginning of that week due to flooding!

So, I wouldn't worry about it too much. Weather's been pretty mild this year, with what I believe is a pretty normal amount of rainfall, so the ground isn't saturated and the show should be just fine. :thumbsup:
 
gprellwitz said:
Well, here's my opportunity to put pressure on you and tell you that She Who Must Be Obeyed expects us to be at Camp Bacon to help her prepare Jambalaya, Chili, and Margaritas by 3:30 PM Tuesday! The airshow is over by what, 6:00PM? You asked for an ETA!

Really, fly safe, whenever you come!
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I shall endeavor to be prompt.
 
Looks like T-storms tomorrow, clear and 80's for Saturday, and back to T-storms for Sunday.
 
Geico266 said:
I'm betting Sunday is doable early in the am. Looks good so far....


http://www.usairnet.com/cgi-bin/launch/code.cgi?Submit=Go&sta=KOSH&state=WI
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Most of the weather websites are predicting 30-60% chance of isolated / scattered showers on Sunday, mostly afternoon, but weather.gov says all day 60%. If I can manage to get off the ground early enough and don't have too much headwind component, I'd like to be touching down at KOSH somewhere around noon-ish on Sunday and hopefully get my tent set up in HBC before getting rained on too badly.
 
cgrab said:
the weather seems to be settling out to good on Friday and bad on Saturday.
Click to expand...

cgrab said:
The Friday weather seems to be holding. Looks like the Cessnas-2-Oshkosh might get a little wet on Saturday.
Click to expand...

sourdough44 said:
Trending damp on Saturday right now.
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cgrab said:
The stagnant weather system bringing the rain on Saturday may move a little quicker than thought before and brign some rian late Friday. Looks like the whole weekend will be wet.
Click to expand...

cgrab said:
It looks like the best day to travel now is Friday with overcast predicted everywhere on Saturday.
Click to expand...

And after all that...

JB1842 said:
Looks like T-storms tomorrow, clear and 80's for Saturday, and back to T-storms for Sunday.
Click to expand...

The only correct thing in this entire thread so far has been "I'm sure it'll change." :rofl: Thou shalt not start weather guessing threads greater than 72 hours prior to launch! :nono:

http://usairnet.com/cgi-bin/launch/code.cgi?sta=KOSH&model=avn&state=WI&Submit=Get+Forecast

:popcorn:
 
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