Stock market thoughts?

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35 and 30% of my net has always gone into some retirement account. Carry no debt but a house. Folio dipped a little last few months but it was nothing compared to the gains. I have another 20-25 years before I need to worry about the market.
 
My money is in real estate. I haven't placed much value on the idea of stocks, pieces of paper with no inherent value. Worst that could happen to me is fire or tornado, for which there is insurance. I also don't live in a part of the country with a volatile housing market, slow and steady gains. Rentals are a great means of passive income.
 
midwestpa24 said:
My money is in real estate. I haven't placed much value on the idea of stocks, pieces of paper with no inherent value. Worst that could happen to me is fire or tornado, for which there is insurance. I also don't live in a part of the country with a volatile housing market, slow and steady gains. Rentals are a great means of passive income.
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I’m in Southern California, sold all my rentals late last year early this year. Just before the slowdown and all sold within 24 hours over asking. Doubled my money on all of them since I bought them in the last bubble burst. I’ll sit on the money till the market corrects then buy more.
 
ja_user said:
Anyone giving you a prediction with a time table is either a fool or trying to sell you something. Much of the financial services industry is based upon the notion that investing is complicated and requires extensive research, it isn't and it doesn't.

The market will go up, and it will go down. We know that as a fact. 60% of the time it is up. You do the math.

IF you knew when to get out (you don't), you'd also need know when you get back in? But if you did like most people you'd just sit on the sideline with a pile of cash and lose out on years of return, cash eaten away by inflation and worry about when to get back in...

Rebalance to your (preferably written down) Asset Allocation only if necessary, and check back in a year.
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Is this the global climate change thread or the stock market thread?
 
Jamie Kirk said:
I’m in Southern California, sold all my rentals late last year early this year. Just before the slowdown and all sold within 24 hours over asking. Doubled my money on all of them since I bought them in the last bubble burst. I’ll sit on the money till the market corrects then buy more.
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I did the same. No rush to get back into the market. The DOW may dive to 21,XXX sooner than I thought!

FastEddieB said:
With inflation hovering right around 2%, that maybe “safe and steady”, but still pretty pitiful. Not to mention taxes on interest income.
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That depends somewhat on the amount of principal you have, and how much you need to live comfortably. Market's too risky right now, and I'm prepared to jump back in after it truly tanks. As for taxes, pay the man now, or pay the man later. The gub'ment is really good at extracting its share.
 
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PaulS said:
I hope this brings down airplane prices so I can buy one.
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Interesting comment. May temporarily bring down the price of “higher end” like bonanzas, but training/entry-level airplanes will remain high due to demand from flight schools and people trying to fill the pilot shortage.
 
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I got lucky in 2008/2009. In Aug 2008 I got hold of a book about supercharging your portfolio with a computerized portfolio planner. According to it, I wasn't going to make my retirement goals with the portfolio I had then. The last weekend of Aug 2008 I put in limit orders to sell everything, as my new portfolio wouldn't have any of what was in my then current portfolio.

The market crashed that weekend, and all of my limit orders executed. I was in cash, and bonds until April, when my market indicator said to buy, so I loaded up my portfolio. I didn't lose half my money between Aug and April, I bought on the second of a double bottom, and have stayed fully invested since. I got lucky twice. I'm trying not to push my luck again.

My indicators no longer work, and I completely changed my strategy. I'm not good at picking individual stocks, so the only individual stocks I own I acquired as part of my employee compensation when I worked at a company. Now, my 401K money, and IRA dividends and capital gains go into the worst performing index mutual fund or ETF for the last 30 days.

I don't sell to rebalance. I used to try to do that, but I always seemed to chase the fund up when buying, and down when selling. I saw some data that showed the longer between rebalancing, the better the return. The limit, of course, is never rebalancing. I only buy when I have new money to invest.

For now, I see this as a buying opportunity. I just hope I don't lose my shirt before the buying opportunity ends.
 
dans2992 said:
I hope you’re kidding.
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Me, too. Gold, historically, has just kept pace with inflation. It isn't correlated with any other asset class, so small amounts in your portfolio help dampen its volatility.

These gold retailers sell you marked up gold, and buy it back at a discount. That's how they make their money.

If you want to own gold, there are gold Exchange Traded Notes. The problem is, as far as I can tell. The ETN gold notes circulating have a total value of more gold than exists in the world, and you have to pay a maintenance fee to own the gold notes.

Instead of gold ETNs, I own a gold explorer ETF. It holds shares of gold mining companies, and pays a dividend.

Rich Man, Poor Man author says an investment puts money in your pocket. So, according to him, GLD is not an investment, because it costs you money to own it, and a gold miner ETF is because it pays you to own it.
 
I buy gold direct from miners, most in button form, and I bought a lot of it when it was 36 dollars per oz.
 
dans2992 said:
I hope you’re kidding.
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Nope,, gold has been a good investment for us, because we bought most of it long time ago. and we don't buy from the market and pay for the ability to do it.
You never buy paper. You buy what you can hold in your hand.
When I sell I sell to our dentist, because you are correct the gold market is a ripoff.
 
Well as of 1:46p EST. The DOW just fell 450pts to a 14 month low and the Nasdaq is now in a bear market, down 20% from the highs. A close today below 23,000 on the Dow and 2500 for the S&P is a bearish signal.
 
A readjustment would seem to be in order. The fed seems to want to help that happen.
 
Crashnburn said:
I got lucky in 2008/2009...
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Any scheme to predict market moves will produce winners and losers. And luck is probably the biggest factor.

I again recommend this book:

41B8XA7P--L.jpg


On gold, it can be a rational choice as part of a portfolio, as protection against hyperinflation. 10% of one’s investment portfolio is a number often touted.
 
As far as chart reading and technical analysis goes, it seems obvious that any scheme or program to predict stock moves is fundamentally self-defeating. At the moment it becomes obvious that a “double bottom” or any chart shape predicts something, as soon as everyone knows that it does, they’ll move to act sooner on that information, canceling out any predictive ability that shape might have had.

And technical analysis “predictions” are often meaningless drivel. “Apple is meeting resistance at the $170 level. If it breaks through that resistance level, expect further downward momentum. If it holds, we could see significant upside potential. But don’t be surprised if it continues to test that resistance level short term as it seeks direction.”

Translation: Apple could go down, or it could go up, or it might stay about the same. Brilliant!
 
FastEddieB said:
Any scheme to predict market moves will produce winners and losers. And luck is probably the biggest factor.

I again recommend this book:

41B8XA7P--L.jpg


On gold, it can be a rational choice as part of a portfolio, as protection against hyperinflation. 10% of one’s investment portfolio is a number often touted.
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Skin in the game from Taleb is great too.
 
We are overdue for a recession. We are overdue for a major market correction. And all that is politics aside (I remarked to several people before the last election that I couldn't understand why anyone would want to be president with a market overdue for correction/bear.

A lot that goes into it, and a lot of it is sentiment and momentum. Fed rates have an impact up and down. Trade trade barriers has a big impact. So does oil demand. And now the threat of government shutdown. Employment numbers show pretty darn close to "full" employment (as defined by the government, which uses unemployment claims), yet personal income has not gone up as much.

But sentiment is the big thing, boosted by research data that shows slowdowns in certain sectors (like fewer iPhones being made...). Increased prices cannot continue forever - folks get tapped out. There is great fear that we're near a breaking point as to what the consumer can buy.
 
I saw this last night.

Dunno if it applies to this thread but I think it's interesting:

 
I invest in 100LL and Beechcrafts. They seem to have a very reliable, consistent RoR. But a better investments strat for me seem to be letting some guy manage it all for me. So far, since 1999, I haven't "lost" anything yet. I even "made money" on bitcoin. Like $20 or so. My biggest worry, is that the media outlets on both sides, will capitalize on this and make their money on the backs of Joe Pilot's fears and irrationalities.

Anyone trying out ADR's or direct EU tech stocks? Not like buying blue-chips that invest over there, but like a OTC EDR? Or does that even exist? Kinda wanna look into that before I get Beechcraft 100LL returns.
 
Lachlan said:
Is this the global climate change thread or the stock market thread?
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Oh please then, Please forecast the next 2 -10 years accurately.

That would be awesome. Lets check back and compare notes.
 
Here's what I base my investment strategy on...

Tesla.

Hear me out.

Short sellers have been betting against Tesla since day one. When Tesla was at ~340 and Musk posted his now infamous $420 tweet, and the price dropped after the SEC picked up on it, the shortsellers looked like geniuses. They could say "See! Tesla was destined for lower prices! And it's going lower still!

Then prices bottom out in October and subsequently skyrocket to $380 bucks a week or two ago and makes those guys look like IDIOTS for continuing to short Tesla.

Now prices cratered as of last close to $310, making the short sellers look like geniuses again.

So, all that being said... it is clear to me that nobody knows WTF they're talking about, and can look like morons one day and geniuses the next. A broken clock is right twice a day. So my money stays where it's at. When the market is climbing, I view it somewhat negatively, as it means any further investment is going to cost me more. When the market is down, I look at it somewhat positively, as it is an opportunity to buy more stuff at prices I can afford. The long term trend is always UP, which means the downs get smoothed out over time. Trying to time the market is the only sure way to bankrupt yourself when you miss the timing once or twice.
 
Animal spirits mostly ruled the market and drove it higher from 2016 until earlier this year. Now reality has set in and the market is reacting accordingly with a long drawn out correction that could last for awhile.
 
ircphoenix said:
Here's what I base my investment strategy on...

Tesla.

Hear me out.
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My Tesla story...

A while back we gradually amassed 100 shares of TSLA for an average of $220 a share. It was an admitted gamble - in the back of our minds we were hoping it would appreciate enough to someday pay for a Tesla.

Appreciate it did, but the low-cost, $35k Tesla is not yet here. We were in a position this year to actually take full advantage of the $7,500 tax credit, going forward not so much.

Long story short, when TSLA hit about $356, I put in a stop-loss sell order at $350, which executed a couple days later. The proceeds went to a 2018 Honda Clarity plug-in hybrid, which we’ve been loving, with some left over, even after taxes and tags. It’s our first new car since 2005. Expect a report on it soon.

This in NOT my normal investment strategy, but more a game we play sometimes. TSLA is down quite a bit since our sale, currently around $318, so I’m glad we got out when we did. I still think TSLA as a lot of upside potential and will start slowly acquiring some.
 
wsuffa said:
We are overdue for a recession. We are overdue for a major market correction. And all that is politics aside (I remarked to several people before the last election that I couldn't understand why anyone would want to be president with a market overdue for correction/bear.

A lot that goes into it, and a lot of it is sentiment and momentum. Fed rates have an impact up and down. Trade trade barriers has a big impact. So does oil demand. And now the threat of government shutdown. Employment numbers show pretty darn close to "full" employment (as defined by the government, which uses unemployment claims), yet personal income has not gone up as much.

But sentiment is the big thing, boosted by research data that shows slowdowns in certain sectors (like fewer iPhones being made...). Increased prices cannot continue forever - folks get tapped out. There is great fear that we're near a breaking point as to what the consumer can buy.
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Reduction of consumers' collective discretionary income transforms the issue of income inequality from one dominated by philosophical and political ideologies, to a very real and practical demand factor. I consider it one of the better arguments in favor of graduated taxation. In an economy that's still overwhelmingly driven by consumption, increasing the buying power of the people residing on the lower parts of the economic spectrum would give an immediate boost to the economy by increasing their collective buying power.

It's one of those areas in which my pragmatism overrides my philosophical ideology. A consumer-driven economy can't thrive without consumers.

Rich
 
RJM62 said:
Reduction of consumers' collective discretionary income transforms the issue of income inequality from one dominated by philosophical and political ideologies, to a very real and practical demand factor. I consider it one of the better arguments in favor of graduated taxation. In an economy that's still overwhelmingly driven by consumption, increasing the buying power of the people residing on the lower parts of the economic spectrum would give an immediate boost to the economy by increasing their collective buying power.

It's one of those areas in which my pragmatism overrides my philosophical ideology. A consumer-driven economy can't thrive without consumers.

Rich
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Yup, and I've noticed the biggest changes in durable goods over the past decade. My loaded-to-the-gills '08 Ford F-150 Lariat had a sticker price of $42K back in '08 (bought at $30K during the recession). Same truck exists today (10-yrs later) as a Platinum which has a base sticker price of $54K and can go higher. A $12K increase in price over 10 years for a truck that, outside of a few tech features and newer engine/transmission platform, is almost identical. I wouldn't likely balk too much if the increase was $5K-$6K. So, as a consumer, I can't stomach paying such an exorbitant amount for a truck (could barely stomach the original $30K, but it's proven to be a great truck). So, instead of buying a truck and contributing to the economy I keep my old truck which is nearing the 150K mark. Similar things have happened with other durable goods (washer/dryer/fridge/etc.) Prices have gone up quite a bit, so people have started to keep their sets longer or buy used.
 
Ryanb said:
Not necessarily. When the S&P breaks through low after low and various moving averages without finding support, it’s typically not done yet. A double bottom bounce is pretty definite on a chart and is usually a bullish signal. Does it always work? No of course not, but it’s usually safe to nibble.

For now, my bets are that if the S&P can’t hold 2500 , we’ll be in for many more bloody days. When the market acts like this, it’s safer to be short than long.
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Although logic says a person can see these trends and be effective, math and history show that this is very difficult to do and not able to be done by the "professionals" consistently over the years. What makes you better than them?
 
ja_user said:
Although logic says a person can see these trends and be effective, math and history show that this is very difficult to do and not able to be done by the "professionals" consistently over the years. What makes you better than them?
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Certainly no better at all. A double bottom bounce is a commonly known indicator that a bullish trend is forming. Two re-tests of key support levels with a move higher is a positive sign. As I said in the first post, it doesn’t always work, as does any other market indicator, but it’s a fairly safe time to atleast dip your toe in the water.
 
Will a bear stock market cause used aircraft prices to fall? :)
 
eman1200 said:
I can predict the market with 100% accuracy. when eman buys, the market tanks, every effing time.
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This is the first year I've lost money overall in stocks. Not a lot, but some. My losses used to be limited to individual stocks that I knew were risky, but that I took a chance on anyway. A few of those I bought, sat on for years, and sold at or near basis, only for them to skyrocket after I sold them. Others became worthless while I held them. But this is the first year that even my "safe" stocks lost money.

I'm actually pretty bearish on equities right now. I think the early bumps immediately after the 2016 elections were anticipatory of promised tax cuts and regulatory load-lightening, and the later bumps due to those changes being implemented. But they were exaggerated. Inflation-adjusted real income for most Americans is still pretty stagnant, while costs keep climbing (especially in the areas of health care and education).

Speaking of education, Millennials also face very tough challenges due to heavy student loan burdens, which I tend to blame more on the Higher Education Industry than anything else. Lenders don't set the tuition rates. Schools do: and those costs have spiraled exponentially and way out of proportion to the overall inflation rate over the past two generations. (The fact that the Higher Education Industry is doing its best to make Bachelors degrees worthless for anything other than attending grad school doesn't help matters, either.)

The market consequence is that young adults who in previous generations would be buying all kinds of stuff to set up housekeeping on their own are instead living in their parents' basements and buying nothing. That student loans can take decades to pay off doesn't bode well for consumer spending.

I've set limit orders on most of my stocks and have already sold some. I'm looking at bonds and metals more than equities right now. I also have moved some money to my Money Market account at Sallie Mae. It's presently paying 2.2 percent, which isn't great, but is unquestionably safe and fully liquid.

Rich
 
RJM62 said:
. . . Speaking of education, Millennials also face very tough challenges due to heavy student loan burdens, which I tend to blame more on the Higher Education Industry than anything else. Lenders don't set the tuition rates. Schools do: and those costs have spiraled exponentially and way out of proportion to the overall inflation rate over the past two generations. (The fact that the Higher Education Industry is doing its best to make Bachelors degrees worthless for anything other than attending grad school doesn't help matters, either.) . . .
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That will happen when student loans are handed out with little regard to value of the degree and aren't able to defaulted on even in bankruptcy. Sets up a guaranteed payback for the loan companies, largely backed by US gov't. Universities know that and realized that they can raise tuition/room&board/etc. and the students will just get loans to cover it no matter what, especially once they have a year or two invested in a degree. You remove the gov't subsidizing of the student loan industry and make them default-able just like any other loan, I bet those tuition rate increases come to a screeching halt. That, and stop making every entry-level janitor position require a bachelor's to apply.
 
FastEddieB said:
My Tesla story...

A while back we gradually amassed 100 shares of TSLA for an average of $220 a share. It was an admitted gamble - in the back of our minds we were hoping it would appreciate enough to someday pay for a Tesla.

Appreciate it did, but the low-cost, $35k Tesla is not yet here. We were in a position this year to actually take full advantage of the $7,500 tax credit, going forward not so much.

Long story short, when TSLA hit about $356, I put in a stop-loss sell order at $350, which executed a couple days later. The proceeds went to a 2018 Honda Clarity plug-in hybrid, which we’ve been loving, with some left over, even after taxes and tags. It’s our first new car since 2005. Expect a report on it soon.

This in NOT my normal investment strategy, but more a game we play sometimes. TSLA is down quite a bit since our sale, currently around $318, so I’m glad we got out when we did. I still think TSLA as a lot of upside potential and will start slowly acquiring some.
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My Tesla story...

A while back, my son was starting to show some interest in the stock market. At the same time, he thought the Tesla roadster looked kind of cool. So, putting the two together, I bought him 5 shares of Tesla...at $20 a share. Too bad I'm such a cheap dad!
 
RJM62 said:
Reduction of consumers' collective discretionary income transforms the issue of income inequality from one dominated by philosophical and political ideologies, to a very real and practical demand factor. I consider it one of the better arguments in favor of graduated taxation. In an economy that's still overwhelmingly driven by consumption, increasing the buying power of the people residing on the lower parts of the economic spectrum would give an immediate boost to the economy by increasing their collective buying power.

It's one of those areas in which my pragmatism overrides my philosophical ideology. A consumer-driven economy can't thrive without consumers.

Rich
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Already, less than half the population isn't paying any federal income tax; so how are you going to boost their buying power by cutting their taxes?
 
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