Statistics / Winnng a plane.

SixPapaCharlie

SixPapaCharlie

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So here's the question.

Is it better to buy 6 tickets to the wings of hope raffle or 3 to WOH and 3 to the terminal air museum raffle?

I am in the sporty's one via purchase, and I have sent in my 200 tickets for the EAA fairchild giveaway.

That leaves these 2 172s

WOH sells 3000 tickets and I have bought 3 which gives me 1:1000 chance
TAM sells 2500 if I buy 3, I have 1:833 for that raffle

So is it better to go that route and have 2 drawings each with 1: ~1000 chance or buy 3 more for WOH and have 1 shot at 1:500 chance.


Also if anyone is great at stats, what are the odds of winning all 4?
That would be swell.


 
1:1000 x 2 = 2:2000 = 1:1000 Pretty straightforward.

1:500 is twice as likely to win.

For all four, reduce them to decimals:

1:1000 = .0010
1:833 = .0012
Sporty's odds? Guess 1:25,000 = 0.00004
EAA odd? Guess 200:3,000,000 = 0.00007

Multiply them all out:

0.001 * 0.0012 * 0.00004 * 0.00007 = 3.36 x 10^-14, or 3 chances in ten whatever-comes-after-trillion. Unless my guesses are wrong. Feel free to play with those two, I have no idea at all and am randomly guessing.

Your odds with Sporty's depend on how many purchases you made, and how many the rest of the world made, so it's hard to quantify. I helped your EAA odds by not getting all of my tickets sent back in. [You're welcome!]

And good luck!
 
SixPapaCharlie said:
So here's the question.

Is it better to buy 6 tickets to the wings of hope raffle or 3 to WOH and 3 to the terminal air museum raffle?

I am in the sporty's one via purchase, and I have sent in my 200 tickets for the EAA fairchild giveaway.

That leaves these 2 172s

WOH sells 3000 tickets and I have bought 3 which gives me 1:1000 chance
TAM sells 2500 if I buy 3, I have 1:833 for that raffle
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Not really. for the WOW you now have 1 in(3000-3) chances, or 1 in 2997 (1/2997 or 0.03%) not 1 in 1000. Statistically this is selection/sampling without replacement. There are 3000 unique entries (number them from 1 to 3000). If I pick a single entry, call it number 42, then there are still 2999 unique numbers left to choose. You have 2 chances out of 2999, not 1 in 2000. So for 3 entries, you have at best (3/3000) + (1/2999) + (1/2998) or 0.2%

So is it better to go that route and have 2 drawings each with 1: ~1000 chance or buy 3 more for WOH and have 1 shot at 1:500 chance.


Also if anyone is great at stats, what are the odds of winning all 4?
That would be swell.
Click to expand...
 
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Assume you are going to lose (a good bet) and base your decision on which cause you most support and send your disposable money that way.
 
Jim Logajan said:
Assume you are going to lose (a good bet) and base your decision on which cause you most support and send your disposable money that way.
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+1 better to donate to a cause.
 
Jim Logajan said:
Assume you are going to lose (a good bet) and base your decision on which cause you most support and send your disposable money that way.
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Well of course.

I'm just having fun here.
 
I have never in my life won so much as a door prize. Yet I have a friend that has won a car and a rifle in drawings. Like the old Hee Haw song used to go...If it weren't for bad luck I'de have no luck at all...gloom despair and agony on me.:sigh:
 
DFH65 said:
I have never in my life won so much as a door prize. Yet I have a friend that has won a car and a rifle in drawings. Like the old Hee Haw song used to go...If it weren't for bad luck I'de have no luck at all...gloom despair and agony on me.:sigh:
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I won a TV once at a company event.




We only had 4 employees though ;)
 
Cost per ticket factors in. With sporty's the cost is a purchase of something you needed anyway so the price is free. Ergo Sporty's has the best odds per dollar spent ($0).
 
If you donate to a charity without receiving anything in return, you can deduct it from your taxes, so that you have a 100% chance of " winning" a small amount of about 30%, or whatever your tax bracket is. That seems like the best odds, to me.
 
I get the charity. I donate to St. Jude and I do it because I can, not to get anything in return. So that is covered. I have a clear conscience.

If the wings of hope Raffle was donating the money to artificially inseminate caged pandas I would still be entering. And I f#@king hate pandas.

I bought my tickets for the same reason people gamble, play the lottery, buy stocks, etc. This just also happens to have the benefit of sending money to a decent cause as well.

How does a light-hearted thread turn into a guilt trip? :dunno:
 
Two participants of POA have won aircraft. I'm told the POA membership numbers 15,000 or so. Thus your odds are one in seventy five hundred, or thereabouts.

Of course, you may win the airplane, but you don't win maintenance, or hangar fees, or gas, or...
 
steingar said:
Two participants of POA have won aircraft. I'm told the POA membership numbers 15,000 or so. Thus your odds are one in seventy five hundred, or thereabouts.

Of course, you may win the airplane, but you don't win maintenance, or hangar fees, or gas, or...
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:yeahthat:

My $50 airplane ended up costing me close to $1400 4 months later when, for back of a better term, poor maintenance issues popped up. Doesn't mean I won't turn down another raffle plane if I won, though.
 
JB1842 said:
:yeahthat:

My $50 airplane ended up costing me close to $1400 4 months later when, for back of a better term, poor maintenance issues popped up. Doesn't mean I won't turn down another raffle plane if I won, though.
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Mine cost me north of ten grand out the gate (taxes doncha know?) and another 300 on the way home. But no, I'd not sneeze at winning another sweepstakes or lottery airplane, though doing so would prompt me to purchase lottery tickets more often. While there are numerous recipients of lottery airplanes, I doubt there is even one winner of two.
 
Equate the stock market with Las Vegas? Warren buffet would not agree. On a very small scale neither would I. I've done quite well over the years. If after 1980, deregulation had not occurred, I would be doing even better.
 
Captain said:
Cost per ticket factors in. With sporty's the cost is a purchase of something you needed anyway so the price is free. Ergo Sporty's has the best odds per dollar spent ($0).
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Unless you compare their prices to other retailers. They're almost always the highest. TNSTAAFL.
 
Jimmy cooper said:
Equate the stock market with Las Vegas? Warren buffet would not agree. On a very small scale neither would I. I've done quite well over the years. If after 1980, deregulation had not occurred, I would be doing even better.
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They are both systems that I insert money into and have less money.
 
I am raffling off my PA28-161 with all of its bells and whistles. Buy a ticket for $40k and you will have an awesome chance to win as I am only selling one ticket! The drawing will be right after I deposit the money.
 
murphey said:
Not really. for the WOW you now have 1 in(3000-3) chances, or 1 in 2997 (1/2997 or 0.03%) not 1 in 1000. Statistically this is selection/sampling without replacement. There are 3000 unique entries (number them from 1 to 3000). If I pick a single entry, call it number 42, then there are still 2999 unique numbers left to choose. You have 2 chances out of 2999, not 1 in 2000. So for 3 entries, you have at best (3/3000) + (1/2999) + (1/2998) or 0.2%
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What in the world are you talking about? If they sell 3,000 tickets, 3 of which are his, and they draw one, the probability he will win is 3/3000 or 1/1000. They are not drawing 3 tickets and giving away 3 airplanes.
 
ScottM said:
I am raffling off my PA28-161 with all of its bells and whistles. Buy a ticket for $40k and you will have an awesome chance to win as I am only selling one ticket! The drawing will be right after I deposit the money.
Click to expand...

haha!
 
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