Spoke to Joby Aviation

[NordicDave]

FYI... I'm also a weekend talk radio host and Saturday interviewed Joby's head of operations Bonny Simi. We are a 10,000 watt radio station in Santa Cruz, Ca. Also right in Joby's backyard.

I asked her about navigating the regulatory structure as a designer, manufacturer, airline service, and maintainer. Also spoke with her about the crash. We delved into the regs portion as far as possible without losing the non-aviation listening audience.

Some of the company's plans were eye opening, like only flying VFR for Uber for the first few years. Also asked her about the recent crash.

Here's the replay if interested: http://shows.zbsradio.com/20220416/7632776fae117ba.mp3

 

[Salty]

I don’t understand option 2. The plane has already flown. I guess you mean will it fly actual revenue flights?

my choice is option 4. Dunno about 1,2,3, but regardless, it will never make a profit unless subsidized.

 

[Brad Z]

Interesting interview. One thing that wasn't followed up on was that Joby is obtaining their part 135 using a conventional aircraft. Do they plan to actually operate under 135 with that aircraft, and if so, will the 2024 launch be with the conventional aircraft or the new Joby electric aircraft? From my standpoint, the keystone of electric aircraft is battery life, and Joby is in the same boat as everyone else in the field of waiting for battery technology to catch up with aspirations of the organization.

They also need to deliver something to keep the SPAC investors happy too.

 

[Racerx]

There's no possible way they can ever turn a profit. Look at Uber. They made their first ever profit last quarter last year. 12 years and how many hundreds of millions? For a market that I'm not sure exists.

 

[NordicDave]

Interesting interview. One thing that wasn't followed up on was that Joby is obtaining their part 135 using a conventional aircraft. Do they plan to actually operate under 135 with that aircraft, and if so, will the 2024 launch be with the conventional aircraft or the new Joby electric aircraft? From my standpoint, the keystone of electric aircraft is battery life, and Joby is in the same boat as everyone else in the field of waiting for battery technology to catch up with aspirations of the organization.

They also need to deliver something to keep the SPAC investors happy too.

Really great observation about finding milestones forward to satisfy SAPC investors. Your POV helps make more sense of her comment that they will fly passengers VFR first. They will be training their own pilots and 500hrs is minimum for 135 VFR if memory serves correctly. She was pretty clear when pressed that 2024 will be a demonstration flight. It's almost like they are fabricating achievable milestones.

There's no possible way they can ever turn a profit. Look at Uber. They made their first ever profit last quarter last year. 12 years and how many hundreds of millions? For a market that I'm not sure exists.

I pushed her on this point too and the answers were pretty squishy. Essentially she said 50% more than uber by car, but that was vague too.

 

[NordicDave]

I don’t understand option 2. The plane has already flown. I guess you mean will it fly actual revenue flights?

my choice is option 4. Dunno about 1,2,3, but regardless, it will never make a profit unless subsidized.

Joby had 2 prototypes and one has crashed in flight testing. The thought behind option 2 was they get a sustainable hardware platform and achieve type certification, but never achieve the business plan.

I hope they win and the aircraft is successful and Joby achieves Part 23 certification they are seeking. I would bet money they will. Just personally not sure if air-taxi business plan is viable. The caution of flying VFR first is prudent, but expect the public who's used to 737's flying in zero viz on a planned schedule my not understand last minute replan on their part due to fog or other challenges.

 

[Brad Z]

Really great observation about finding milestones forward to satisfy SAPC investors. Your POV helps make more sense of her comment that they will fly passengers VFR first. They will be training their own pilots and 500hrs is minimum for 135 VFR if memory serves correctly. She was pretty clear when pressed that 2024 will be a demonstration flight. It's almost like they are fabricating achievable milestones.



I pushed her on this point too and the answers were pretty squishy. Essentially she said 50% more than uber by car, but that was vague too.

Most Helicopter 135 operations are VFR. Did she say what type of aircraft they were starting with? In the interview I recall she said conventional, but I don't recall her saying airplane versus helicopter.

 

[Rgbeard]

Standard recipe:

Get great idea on the surface
Obtain Venture Capital
Start work
More VC
Party like coked-up Rock Stars
Make claims to be on-track
More VC
Watch it all bust!!
Party like Bryan

 

[NordicDave]

Most Helicopter 135 operations are VFR. Did she say what type of aircraft they were starting with? In the interview I recall she said conventional, but I don't recall her saying airplane versus helicopter.

Their 135 plan is initially designed around conventional aircraft and later augmented for the 135 operating plan to include their eVTOL when it's approved. The Joby eVTOL is similar to the V22 Ospray in that it transitions to horizontal flight after take-off. She said Joby will seek approval for IFR operations, and VFR was just a step in the plan.

 

[Ozone]

As one of the people who bought into their SPAC, i have to agree with all of the above. One thing that I noticed , however, is that joby-branded electric engines seem to be appearing on other vehicles (there was an experimental desert car with a prop on a mast that the engine nacelle said "joby" on it, for example).

My hope: much like tesla having battery packs sold to other manufacturers, that Joby ends up being a supplier for electric engines and this will be the real way that they end up making money.

 

[Brad Z]

Their 135 plan is initially designed around conventional aircraft and later augmented for the 135 operating plan to include their eVTOL when it's approved. The Joby eVTOL is similar to the V22 Ospray in that it transitions to horizontal flight after take-off. She said Joby will seek approval for IFR operations, and VFR was just a step in the plan.

Agreed. I went back and listened again. Aat 21:40 in the recording she stated that they are submitting their part 135 operating certificate application with a "regular" certified aircraft, and will add the Joby aircraft in when it is certified. So my question is what is this "regular" aircraft, and will Joby launch operations using that regular aircraft or will they wait until the Joby aircraft is certified?

 

[Brad Z]

As one of the people who bought into their SPAC, i have to agree with all of the above. One thing that I noticed , however, is that joby-branded electric engines seem to be appearing on other vehicles (there was an experimental desert car with a prop on a mast that the engine nacelle said "joby" on it, for example).

My hope: much like tesla having battery packs sold to other manufacturers, that Joby ends up being a supplier for electric engines and this will be the real way that they end up making money.

I don't think for one moment that their long-term business goal is to be completely vertical, owning R&D, manufacturing, operation and service delivery of the service to the end user. There's a reason why Boeing doesn't want to own an airline, and there's a reason United doesn't want to build airplanes.

Ultimately, whatever their "Secret sauce" is will be the product that eventually becomes marketable. It's hard (or at least incredibly lucky) to have the best power source, propulsion system, airframe, and control system in the industry.

 

[SoCal 182 Driver]

As one of the people who bought into their SPAC...

Are you holding it long-term, or did you bail as the stock plummeted?

 

[Ozone]

Are you holding it long-term, or did you bail as the stock plummeted?

I'm holding.

Bought at 10, now worth 5-ish (I only bought about 30 shares....so no matter what happens it'll be an interesting lesson in buying based on SPAC hype for me). It's also my only aerospace investment (unless you count my vanguard total stock index funds).

 

[Kenny Phillips]

There's no possible way they can ever turn a profit. Look at Uber. They made their first ever profit last quarter last year. 12 years and how many hundreds of millions? For a market that I'm not sure exists.

In the jet engine biz, making a profit on an engine in five or six years after cert is considered a spectacular result, and some take twice that. The cashflow in the meantime pays the bills.

 

[Racerx]

In the jet engine biz, making a profit on an engine in five or six years after cert is considered a spectacular result, and some take twice that. The cashflow in the meantime pays the bills.

But Joby is approaching 1 billion in investment and still by their own admission at least a few years away. I'm just not very bullish on the whole concept in general.

 

[Albany Tom]

Do these guys have anything proprietary at all? Asking because at the beginning of the aircraft industry, as I understand it, a lot of the early companies were able to hang on or become profitable because they owned patents around some of the key bits of technology. So they could use and trade those as part of their business plan. Electric airplanes seem to me just like a combination of some pretty basic things - aircraft, motors, gyros - that were all invented 60+ years ago.

 

[NordicDave]

Do these guys have anything proprietary at all? Asking because at the beginning of the aircraft industry, as I understand it, a lot of the early companies were able to hang on or become profitable because they owned patents around some of the key bits of technology. So they could use and trade those as part of their business plan. Electric airplanes seem to me just like a combination of some pretty basic things - aircraft, motors, gyros - that were all invented 60+ years ago.

I'd bet they have a number of patients given the pioneering research and engineering Joby has completed to date. They have two motors per blade and 5 blades, and each motor has it's own battery supply. They need 4 of 5 for vertical flight and 2 for cruise configuration. Lots of redundancy built-in.

 

[RyanShort1]

Even if it's a pipe dream, I think we should be grateful that like the car racing industry, there are people willing to dream and others willing to throw money at dreams.

 

[Albany Tom]

100% agree. Interest and investment in aviation is a great thing. Motor controllers and batteries aren't there yet, but well designed AC motors are incredibly reliable.

 

[clear_prop]

Of all the eVTOL companies, I think Joby has the best chance since they don't have "and then the magic happens" as a step on their business plan. They seem to be going at it logically, with Part 23 and Part 135 certification instead of YOLO "what are rules?" like some of the others.

I still think the tech is going to take a lot longer than they all claim.

 

[Brad Z]

Of all the eVTOL companies, I think Joby has the best chance since they don't have "and then the magic happens" as a step on their business plan. They seem to be going at it logically, with Part 23 and Part 135 certification instead of YOLO "what are rules?" like some of the others.

I still think the tech is going to take a lot longer than they all claim.

It doesn’t hurt that they’ve tapped into the military-industrial complex by gaining the interest and support of the USAF in R&D.