Rusty pilot relearning weather question

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OU812

Filing Flight Plan
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OU812
Is there a reliable method to determine a few days or more in advance of a planned xc flight how much cloud build ups will be a factor? I have looked at many weather reports that say sunny for a particular day then by the afternoon on that day there will be a sky packed with towering cumulus.

I've been trying to learn the skew-t log p chart but was wondering if I am just missing something glaringly obvious.

Thanks.
 
The NOAA 7 day forecast is as good as anything. You can generally determine if it will be VFR or stormy a 3-4 days out with some amount of confidence. The Windy app is also relatively useful for looking ahead a few days.

I will look at the surface prog charts as well, available on Aviation Weather Center. If there's high pressure forecast and no fronts moving through you can be pretty confident of vfr weather.

If you use Garmin Pilot or Foreflight the "MOS forecast" is pretty good. I'm pretty sure it's the same data used by Windy, but it's organized more like a TAF. I haven't found a good source outside of those apps, but they are pulling it from a government source, so it has to be somewhere.
 
Skew T's are the best for 48 hrs out. My Future Radar and Windy along with the prog charts usually paint a good picture a few days ahead.
 
You're not missing anything. Forecasting hasn't really gotten any measurably better since I started flying.
 
Try the textual forecast discussion that your regional meteorologist writes. I continue to learn about their informed guesses. I read and follow them about 7 days before a planned trip through each region. As the days go by and the trip gets closer, you begin to see a trend and rate/speed at which things will or won’t develop. It helps me know what to expect, even the unexpected.
 
denverpilot said:
You're not missing anything. Forecasting hasn't really gotten any measurably better since I started flying.
Click to expand...

This, I generally won't cancel based on a forecast unless I'm just planning on screwing around and it looks like the weather will happen. That is usually the morning of type decision. My last half dozen flights or so have all been to get somewhere and have all had weather concerns. Had to change the timing or route on a couple but managed to get them in, IFR of course. VFR adds much more difficulty and limits options, most of those flights would have been cancelled.

I like the GFS models for longer range, I rely on observations more heavily before the flight, namely to make sure conditions and timing match the forecast.
 
455 Bravo Uniform said:
Try the textual forecast discussion that your regional meteorologist writes. I continue to learn about their informed guesses. I read and follow them about 7 days before a planned trip through each region. As the days go by and the trip gets closer, you begin to see a trend and rate/speed at which things will or won’t develop. It helps me know what to expect, even the unexpected.
Click to expand...

And even 48 hours out, they are off by 24 hours. Sunny all weekend you say? Oh, you mean except for the widespread overcast...got it. lol
 
In one of his performances he says “and now for the three day forecast, Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday.” Can’t find that one but here...

 
OU812 said:
Is there a reliable method to determine a few days or more in advance of a planned xc flight how much cloud build ups will be a factor? I have looked at many weather reports that say sunny for a particular day then by the afternoon on that day there will be a sky packed with towering cumulus.

I've been trying to learn the skew-t log p chart but was wondering if I am just missing something glaringly obvious.

Thanks.
Click to expand...

All of the information in SkewT will already be contained in TAFs. You won't be able to get an accurate forecast of fair weather cumulus (including TCU) several days in advance.
 
sarangan said:
All of the information in SkewT will already be contained in TAFs.
Click to expand...

Not true. TAF's do not give tops, layers, temps aloft, lapse rate, indications of convection, icing, etc. Skew T is the most valuable tool you can use and most people don't understand them or use them to their full potential.
 
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