<rant> Weather</rant> Update <rant Adulting /rant>

Shepherd

Shepherd

Final Approach
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Nov 24, 2012
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Hopewell Jct, NY
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Shepherd
Do you want to know what's far and away worse than weather?
Adulting.
Responsible adulting.

First good day in 3 weeks.
Clear, visibility infinity, zero wind. OK it's -1, but I built a salamander to pre-heat the engine and it works great.
Finally, my adult responsibilities, meshed with the weather.
I'm going flying!
I was putting my flight bag in the car, the car was running. I went back in to get my travel mug and my sunglasses. The phone rings.
The plumber, who I have been waiting for for 2 weeks, is on his way to my house.
Right. Now.
waaaaa!
The rest of the week is supposed to be crap.

Another flight cancelled due to an incorrect weather prediction. Again.
It was supposed to be partly cloudy, 38 degrees and 3-5 wind.
I was planning on hopping over to Sullivan County, (MSV), then Cherry Ridge (N30) then back home.
Woke up to low ceiling, mist and ice fog. Also it snowed again last night. About an inch, but it means going to the hanger and pushing it out of the way.
Maybe Thursday. Supposed to be sunny and 4 degrees. I can really test my home built salamander\pre-heater.
The wind will probably blow 30 MPH. During the blizzard. And thunder storm.
sigh.....
 
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Winter weather seems to be the hardest to predict. We have literally had days that was forecast to be severe clear, and by the end of the day we are under a blizzard warning due to snow "flurries" and wind.
 
Shepherd said:
Another flight cancelled due to an incorrect weather prediction. Again.
It was supposed to be partly cloudy, 38 degrees and 3-5 wind.
I was planning on hopping over to Sullivan County, (MSV), then Cherry Ridge (N30) then back home.
Woke up to low ceiling, mist and ice fog. Also it snowed again last night. About an inch, but it means going to the hanger and pushing it out of the way.
Maybe Thursday. Supposed to be sunny and 4 degrees. I can really test my home built salamander\pre-heater.
The wind will probably blow 30 MPH. During the blizzard. And thunder storm.
sigh.....
Click to expand...

This, severe clear at my house, 2,300 foot ceilings and ice about 10 miles away yesterday. Chose not to fly. Today, inch of snow on the ground.
 
Yeah, I’m planning a trip to GKT on Saturday, but some of the forecasts are contradictory. I’m waiting until about 48hrs out before reserving the rental car.
 
I've often wondered how meteorologists keep their jobs. I can't think of a single profession where you can screw up that regularly with no repercussions. The forecasts were so bad during training that the SOP for my instructor and I would be to check the forecast right before I left for my drive to the airport, and it still would be wrong sometimes even though it was just an hour and a half later.
 
midwestpa24 said:
Winter weather seems to be the hardest to predict. We have literally had days that was forecast to be severe clear, and by the end of the day we are under a blizzard warning due to snow "flurries" and wind.
Click to expand...

The challenge with winter weather is that a 5 degree temperature swing can be a game changer. Not so much the remainder of the year.
 
Another typical winter day in the high desert.....clear and a million.

15 degrees after the sun came up bringing the density altitude down to about 4700 or so... looking for a high of 50 today.
 
Last year I did a bucket list flight from central California to the east coast and back. Prior to that I had flown only in California, for 30 years. I wasn't too far into my flight when I began to realize my concept of weather was severely misguided. Weather predictions in CA are very reliable. Probably because the weather is sunny and clear 90% of the time (coastal regions excepted).

My bucket list flight turned into a very long ordeal due to real weather. It sucked, day after day, and the aviation forecasts seemed to be nothing more than "one possible outcome".

I was VFR only in a light sport aircraft, which limited my options.

I don't envy the folks that live in real weather areas.
 
Shepherd said:
Another flight cancelled due to an incorrect weather prediction. Again.
It was supposed to be partly cloudy, 38 degrees and 3-5 wind.
I was planning on hopping over to Sullivan County, (MSV), then Cherry Ridge (N30) then back home.
Woke up to low ceiling, mist and ice fog. Also it snowed again last night. About an inch, but it means going to the hanger and pushing it out of the way.
Maybe Thursday. Supposed to be sunny and 4 degrees. I can really test my home built salamander\pre-heater.
The wind will probably blow 30 MPH. During the blizzard. And thunder storm.
sigh.....
Click to expand...
Mark Twain covered this about 150 years ago. “Everybody talks about the weather, but nobody does anything about it.”
 
I fly 3-5 days a week in the winter. I usually don't go anywhere and just have fun. If the weather is iffy I stay nearby and sometimes only fly the pattern but I am flying.
Last Friday afternoon my buddy and I flew both of our planes 1.5 hrs away and it was 10°f out. It was a cold ride inside my plane. Got to where we were going and the FBO closed minutes before we got there. Doors were locked, no drivers for the fuel trucks and was freezing near 0 degrees at dark. I needed fuel. We both only could take refuge in our planes. We flew to another airport so I could get fuel. Went down to -6°f that night. 3.2 hrs flying that night, we love to fly no matter what the temps are. It was clear and calm though, beautiful night to fly.
Zanesville Ohio at dusk.
IMG_1381.JPG

ZZV at dark. No one home, we were on our own.

IMG_1383.JPG
 
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Zeldman said:
Another typical winter day in the high desert.....clear and a million.

15 degrees after the sun came up bringing the density altitude down to about 4700 or so... looking for a high of 50 today.
Click to expand...
Ha ha, DA at my home field was minus 4700 the other day!
 
Move to Florida and stop whining.
 
If the aircraft weren't in the shop I'd have plenty of opportunities. This winter hasn't been so bad as some.
 
Joe_B1 said:
Ha ha, DA at my home field was minus 4700 the other day!
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Where I used to fly it was not unusual to see -6000 DA. Any lower and we stopped flying because the cold temps were too hard on the airplane. (no one cared if the pilot froze and broke...)
 
Our weather here in eastern Arkansas gets pretty cold, but normally the really cold days will be maybe a week, then we get something in the 50F range for a few days, then back cool. I try to fly on the warmer days. One good thing about winter is the visibility is usually superb. I normally try to fly once a week, and usually make it.

I often tell my wife that how can we think the forecast for 10 or 12 years out is accurate (to promote doing something about climate change), but the forecast for the next two days is often way off. Computer models are only as good as the computer model operator. :)
 
For the past 6 years I've been flying a Cub, no heat, all winter, in sub-zero temperatures. Years of lovely CAVU, with an occasional bad, gusty day because of a front moving through.
I finally bought a plane with working cabin heat, and the problem is fog, ice, and wind, day after day after day. It just doesn't stop.
I normally fly 8 to 12 hours a month. I've only managed 20 since September.
 
Shepherd said:
Another flight cancelled due to an incorrect weather prediction. …..sigh.....
Click to expand...

I share your frustration too. I am based in Northern Jersey, and I have said the same thing to my wife for last few years. It is getting worse every year. I never considered flying my plane in a sub freezing temperature day like yesterday, but I just couldn’t waste a clear day…
 
I’m fortunate living in Georgia with generally good flying weather year round. We have had a couple of winter storm blasts recently that have impacted my flying, but that is not the norm. Typically during the winter here, the morning fog is the biggest problem. Some mornings it can be between 10 to 11 am before the fog clears. In the summer it is typically afternoon thunderstorms we have to watch out for. If I plan afternoon flights in the winter and morning flights in the summer I usually fare pretty well. We also have our fair share of severe clear days.
 
Fog fog fog for days round these parts. Then the heavens opened up today and it was beautiful blue sky and whispy clouds and golden sunbeams.

Of course, I was working.
 
I started flying in California and weather aside from some fog rarely stopped me. Once I spent time in Kansas and Maryland things were a bit different, especially in winter! Here’s hoping for plenty of sunny flying days at my new home in Savannah.
 
Zeldman said:
And here in NM we only get approximately 342.8 sunny days a year.... :lol::lol:
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Up here in Ottawa, ON we get about that many days that it's possible to go more than an hour without air conditioning, and 365 days/year without water rationing. Chaqu'un à son gout.
 
Weather here was beautiful on Sunday, CAVU with maybe a 10-15 mph wind. Went to the airport and the 2" or so of snow we got the day before was still everywhere, usually they'll at least plow the runways but they didn't this time. I cleared enough to push myself out of the hangar and had a really fun slip sliding crosswind taxi to get to the runway, but after that it was great! According to my tracks in the snow I was the only one who used the airport all weekend.
 
I was hoping to make a trip from MN to AK and back this weekend but ... weather gods don't seem to approve.
 
MickYoumans said:
I’m fortunate living in Georgia with generally good flying weather year round. We have had a couple of winter storm blasts recently that have impacted my flying, but that is not the norm. Typically during the winter here, the morning fog is the biggest problem. Some mornings it can be between 10 to 11 am before the fog clears. In the summer it is typically afternoon thunderstorms we have to watch out for. If I plan afternoon flights in the winter and morning flights in the summer I usually fare pretty well. We also have our fair share of severe clear days.
Click to expand...
+1 for the flying weather in the Southeast. Just checked BXG is only 70 miles away from RBW... Hey neighbor:)
 
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