Interesting times indeed. Egg prices are now at 20 year lows as supply has returned, import commitments are finalized, and demand destruction due to the high prices takes a toll. Farm prices are well below the cost of feed and many producers are having trouble finding a home for their product. We had a small producer call us to ask to take his eggs as long as we paid the freight. Still couldn't make the economics work. About 70% of what we(our company) lost has been repopulated and we will be back full up by the end of September. We were/are fortunate in that we already have a home for this product to our long term customer who has been fantastic through this crisis.
HSUS and other animal rights groups have had an incredible run convincing companies and retailers to make cage-free commitments in the last few months. All of the 20 largest retailers have made public statements of one type or another promising to go cage free. The catalyst for this was the high prices that caused the price delta between conventional and specialty to be essentially zero for 12 months. The public commitments so far will require the conversion of about 160,000,000 hens, or 60% of the flock, to be converted to cage free in the next 8 years. This will require a capital investment of around $1B per year by the industry - which is an order of magnitude beyond historical needs/ability. We probably don't have the equity to pull this off as an industry. The other interesting aspect of this is that many companies that have made the commitment to switch to cage free are unwilling to do so until closer to their 2025 deadline. It takes me years to get a facility designed, permitted, financed, and built - and I can't do that unless I have a market. I have never been less certain as to what things will look like in 10 years as I am sitting here today typing this.
I can build this for $20/bird -
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http://www2.sustainableeggcoalition.org/resources#enrichedvideo
Or this for $45/bird -
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http://www2.sustainableeggcoalition.org/resources#aviaryvideo
Production cost difference between the two is around $0.35/dozen. This study would tell you that the first is better overall for animal welfare.
http://www2.sustainableeggcoalition...download/public/CSESResearchResultsReport.pdf
BWTHDIK