What does exponential gain tell us about how quickly a phenomenon such as COVID-19 can spread in the USA? Assumptions: 1-the number of cases doubles every 7 days, 2-no cure is available for 1 year, 3-25 of those infected require hospitalization, 4-deaths occur starting at 4th week of hospitalization, and 5-we have 1,000,000 hospital beds available.
Week # person is infected on last day / Total infected to date / # of beds required
1 128 / 254 / 64
2 16,384 / 32,800 / 8,200
3 2,097,152 / 4,194,000 / 1,490,000
So late in the third week we will need EVERY hospital bed in the USA!
Keep in mind there are a number of things that can and will influence what happens in real life plus the assumptions upon which this is based may not be accurate. This is a worse case scenario intended to encourage thought and discussion. What are your thoughts?
Week # person is infected on last day / Total infected to date / # of beds required
1 128 / 254 / 64
2 16,384 / 32,800 / 8,200
3 2,097,152 / 4,194,000 / 1,490,000
So late in the third week we will need EVERY hospital bed in the USA!
Keep in mind there are a number of things that can and will influence what happens in real life plus the assumptions upon which this is based may not be accurate. This is a worse case scenario intended to encourage thought and discussion. What are your thoughts?
