Prices are coming down

H

Hector Parra

Pre-takeoff checklist
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Feb 20, 2022
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Display name:
Hector Parra
Seems like we have some good news.

Either people ran out of cash or a lot of folks decided to jump in the high prices wagon and put their planes in the market

https://www.sandhills.com/news/article/250037989

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yeah, sure, "good news"

until you dig into the why....
 
Bob Noel said:
yeah, sure, "good news"

until you dig into the why....
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Well, it depends on how you look at it. Good, because prices are now coming back to reality and more reflective of where they should have been. Bad, because of the financial/political catastrophe that caused a lot of the inflation and high interest rates we are seeing today.
 
SoonerAviator said:
Well, it depends on how you look at it. Good, because prices are now coming back to reality and more reflective of where they should have been. Bad, because of the financial/political catastrophe that caused a lot of the inflation and high interest rates we are seeing today.
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If you have saved cash and positioned yourself to have limited exposure to the financial/political catastrophe, I see it as a good thing, personally. Shorter lines for things. More realistic pricing. I would be happy to be able to get some spur of the moment trips in. Tired of having to make reservations 12 months out.
 
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Good news, asking prices down 0.5% from last month. Bad news. These lower asking prices are still 11.5% than they were a year ago.
 
Good news if your a buyer ,not so good if your a seller who has been upgrading their aircraft.
 
Sometimes I feel like the market is starting a correction and then I stumble upon a Trade-A-Plane post like THIS ONE and I'm reminded that we still have a long way to go...
 
Tom Wells said:
Sometimes I feel like the market is starting a correction and then I stumble upon a Trade-A-Plane post like THIS ONE and I'm reminded that we still have a long way to go...
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huh - gray leather interior. blah
 
Bob Noel said:
huh - gray leather interior. blah
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Hey -- I have gray in my arrow! :eek:
But I was more concerned with the, you know... $175k price tag for a 1974 ARROW with a midtime engine. It's like they took the GPS/audio-panel avionics investment $, tripled it, and added it to a reasonable asking price.
Just another piece of evidence that the market is still inhaling a bit too much hopium in their prices ;)
 
Tom Wells said:
Sometimes I feel like the market is starting a correction and then I stumble upon a Trade-A-Plane post like THIS ONE and I'm reminded that we still have a long way to go...
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That is insane! What would it take for someone to buy this? For me, an Arrow at that price should be all glass and have a fresh RR 250 bolted on the front.
 
kaiser said:
That is insane! What would it take for someone to buy this? For me, an Arrow at that price should be all glass and have a fresh RR 250 bolted on the front.
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I don't think there's a snowballs chance in hell someone pays that. You would need to give me garmin glass, a modern GPS and AP and a very low <250h SFRM engine. And hey, I'm a PA28R owner and I like em as much as the next guy...
Even so, I'm only going to give this price a 6/10 insanity rating. For true insanity you need to look at 182s. Routinely see ones from the 1960s asking 200+ with minimal updates. Insane-o.
 
Tom Wells said:
I don't think there's a snowballs chance in hell someone pays that. You would need to give me garmin glass, a modern GPS and AP and a very low <250h SFRM engine. And hey, I'm a PA28R owner and I like em as much as the next guy...
Even so, I'm only going to give this price a 6/10 insanity rating. For true insanity you need to look at 182s. Routinely see ones from the 1960s asking 200+ with minimal updates. Insane-o.
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How about one of these? Although it might be a museum piece with those hours...
https://www.trade-a-plane.com/searc...l=CLASSIC&listing_id=2383300&s-type=aircraft#
 
TCABM said:
Which hopefully allows wages to catch up without continuing to stoke inflation.
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Can't see a way it doesn't stoke inflation. Even in the aviation community, hearing about Spirit first-officers pay going up 43% over 2 years? Captain pay going up like 30%? Even lawmakers voted to give themselves a 29% increase. And a crappy clothing company is giving 40% raises. Really hard for me to imagine a scenario where that money is paid out and people don't adjust their spending dramatically to the upside (unless it coincides with massive layoffs). Doesn't help that salaries are much stickier than bonuses...
 
Tom Wells said:
Sometimes I feel like the market is starting a correction and then I stumble upon a Trade-A-Plane post like THIS ONE and I'm reminded that we still have a long way to go...
Click to expand...
Wow. It's a beautiful airplane, fairly low time engine - and old. I'm fine with the six-pack being steam, but no A/P at at that price? Not that my budget reaches that far anyway. . .
 
Tom Wells said:
Hey -- I have gray in my arrow! :eek:
But I was more concerned with the, you know... $175k price tag for a 1974 ARROW with a midtime engine. It's like they took the GPS/audio-panel avionics investment $, tripled it, and added it to a reasonable asking price.
Just another piece of evidence that the market is still inhaling a bit too much hopium in their prices ;)
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sorry. I'm just not a fan of leather or the "color" gray. I might not rip it out of my airplane (if I had it), but definitely wouldn't give value points for it. Definitely doesn't justify their appraisal as a 9+ interior.

And, yes, I agree that $175,000 is quite a bit above fair market value. Maybe twice?
 
Bob Noel said:
sorry. I'm just not a fan of leather or the "color" gray. I might not rip it out of my airplane (if I had it), but definitely wouldn't give value points for it. Definitely doesn't justify their appraisal as a 9+ interior.

And, yes, I agree that $175,000 is quite a bit above fair market value. Maybe twice?
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I don’t think rating of paint or interior depends on colors, just its condition.

To each his own, I hate earth tones (browns, greens, red, etc).

The important thing is that it’s not offensive, colors like hot pink or nose art should be avoided.
 
It's really tough looking at these 60 and 70K C150s when I've bought a passel of them for 12 grand not too long ago.

I think prices may correct a bit, but I think part of the run-up is "new normal" and here to stay.

There's a really interesting tension between the agonizing costs, ever-increasing, to remain in GA, versus the ever-suckening terribleness of the airlines. Like the worst possible staring contest between two of my inner masochists. :D
 
frfly172 said:
Good news if your a buyer ,not so good if your a seller who has been upgrading their aircraft.
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Meh. Doesn't bother me. Maybe I'd care if I was wanting to sell, but all the gains were on paper and a little downward adjustment of hull value should help with insurance. Even if I wound up selling her for a loss I wouldn't regret any of the money I've spent on her.
 
Tom Wells said:
Sometimes I feel like the market is starting a correction and then I stumble upon a Trade-A-Plane post like THIS ONE and I'm reminded that we still have a long way to go...
Click to expand...
Maybe it comes with the sunset from the first picture. The guy probably sold his house at a high price and wants to do the same with his plane
 
"Whats it worth?"

.....what someones willing to pay for it.....
 
Tom Wells said:
Can't see a way it doesn't stoke inflation. Really hard for me to imagine a scenario where that money is paid out and people don't adjust their spending dramatically to the upside (unless it coincides with massive layoffs).
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That wage growth is just following the price of housing/rent and groceries. It ain't going to stoke inflation if there's no more to spend on anything else. That said, GA prices may soften but they're here to dtay.
 
I don't think the prices will come down much if at all, unless there become way fewer pilots interested in owning. The 60's and 70's fleet is rotting and crashing away sadly, and I don't think the price for new planes will come down.
 
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