Post Oshkosh COVID anyone?

[steingar]

A vaccine isn't a guarantee against catching the disease. A vaccine makes it more difficult for the virus to get a foothold and allows your body to fight it far more effectively. Most breakthrough infections are milder and of shorter duration than those of the unvaccinated. Over 99% of those hospitalized for COVID right now are unvaccinated. Get the bloody vaccine. It's safe and highly effective.

 

[TommyG]

Even last year when everyone was afraid of Covid, only a handful,of cases were linked to people attending sturgis. That is a lot more people attending with people hanging out in the bars. There was no vaccine, and they did not enforce masks.

 

[EdFred]

A vaccine isn't a guarantee against catching the disease. A vaccine makes it more difficult for the virus to get a foothold and allows your body to fight it far more effectively. Most breakthrough infections are milder and of shorter duration than those of the unvaccinated. Over 99% of those hospitalized for COVID right now are unvaccinated. Get the bloody vaccine. It's safe and highly effective.

Still seeing ads on TV for getting the vaccine that don't put it in those words. The ads are selling the "guarantee."

Without getting too political, I'm guessing most people who haven't got the vax vs those that did *probably* falls along party lines. I mean, wouldn't you just want the other party to lose voters?

 

[steingar]

Still seeing ads on TV for getting the vaccine that don't put it in those words. The ads are selling the "guarantee."

All I can do is give you the straight poop as far as I know it. Problem is ads sell things. Easier to sell a guarantee that something with more shading. I'd still rather see people get vaccinated, even under false pretenses. Sadly I think we all have to be more careful than we really want to be for a while longer. And I am very very happy your Old Man is on the mend. He's a good guy.

 

[wanttaja]

The problem was there were people (I don't know if it was politicians, or newscasters, whether it was deliberate or uninformed) who were saying that getting the vaccine would prevent those vaccinated from 1) getting it, and 2) passing it on.

The way I remember is that the Pfizer and Moderna were announced to have 94% efficacy... which, to me in my poor knuckle-dragger medical knowledge, meant that it wouldn't work in 6% of the cases. I also remember that the J&J was initially announced to have 88% efficacy, and Detroit initially refused to use it because "it wasn't as effective."

So, certainly, the discussion at the beginning acknowledged that none of them were effective 100% of the time, and that was a factor in the initial discussion over vaccination. Yes, discussion since then seems to have forgotten that. Still, it seems to reduce the rate of hospitalization and death among the breakthrough cases.

Ron Wanttaja

 

[Rushie]

if you can say, was he also tested for influenza? If not, how does anyone know his flu-like symptoms weren't actually caused by the flu?

think about it...

This.^^^^ Nevermind influenza. What if you test positive but the vaccine kept you completely asymptomatic, but you caught an ordinary common cold at OSH. Those still exist. You can simultaneously have more than one virus in you. But there is no standard test for the common cold.

What you know for sure is you have coryza (the sniffles). That’s the only fact you have. Any positive test for a pathogen is only presumed to be the cause. I’m not a doctor but I’m pretty sure that’s how it works (any doctor here care to correct me?) A case is diagnosed presumptively based on history, signs, and symptoms. Tests provide laboratory confirmation. But there is such thing as false positives so laboratory confirmation still isn’t incontrovertible proof. In most cases it is sufficient preponderance of evidence. However, even if it’s not a false positive, that still isn’t 100% proof positive that was the virus that caused the symptoms, unless you can absolutely rule out all other causes. Which you can’t do if you don’t have tests for all the other coronaviruses, adenoviruses, etc. out there.

You could say, “That just doesn’t happen. We know from experience that if a test is positive then that is 99% likely the cause of the symptoms.” But isn’t that circular logic? The only way you “know” this from experience is you made the assumption in all the past cases.

In this scenario we have a public gathering of many people. One may presume many common cold viruses are present, as well as covid. I can see people picking up more than one.

 

[weilke]

Correct me if I am wrong. You don't test positive for COVID. You test for the SARS2 Corona Virus. COVID is the disease you get from it. You can get the Corona Virus and feel pretty much nothing. Or you can get sick, real sick or die. The Vaccine doesn't put up some kinda force field around you killing the Virus before it gets into you. It attacks the Virus when it does. You might feel a little poorly for awhile while the attack is going on. And you can test positive for the Virus while this is happening.

Correct. It's not a force field. The virus may still land on the cells that line your airways. The only way for us to tell whether virus replication happens in a individual is by detecting
- an antigen on the surface of the virus using a antigen test
- the virus genetic material using RT-PCR
- the virus by its effect in a cell culture
- in a previously seronegative patient, the creation of antibodies in that patient (seroconversion)
All these tests have a lower detection limit. So even with RT-PCR, a person may have fought off the virus on the cells that cover their airways but we just happen to not catch that phase or we are below the detection limit of the test.
The estimate is that with the delta variant, the number of individuals in a group who test positive is decreased by 60%. The effect of the vaccine on infectivity is less well documented. It was doing that extremely well for the variant prevalent in Israel during their vaccine campaign, it appears to be much less effective for the delta variant.
What we do know is that the vaccine, even for the delta variant, drastically reduces the number of individuals who get covid pneumonia, pulmonary embolism, stroke and multiorgan failure. Almost all of the younger breakthrough cases have mild disease and don't require hospitalization (in between it kills a few, but that's just math at work). The breakthrough cases that result in hospitalization tend to be in older individuals who got the vaccine early.

 

[EdFred]

The way I remember is that the Pfizer and Moderna were announced to have 94% efficacy... which, to me in my poor knuckle-dragger medical knowledge, meant that it wouldn't work in 6% of the cases. I also remember that the J&J was initially announced to have 88% efficacy, and Detroit initially refused to use it because "it wasn't as effective."

So, certainly, the discussion at the beginning acknowledged that none of them were effective 100% of the time, and that was a factor in the initial discussion over vaccination. Yes, discussion since then seems to have forgotten that. Still, it seems to reduce the rate of hospitalization and death among the breakthrough cases.

Ron Wanttaja

Which then leads to the question of, is it the 6% that are contracting and passing it along, or are those in the 94% also contracting and passing along?

 

[Tarheelpilot]

The problem was there were people (I don't know if it was politicians, or newscasters, whether it was deliberate or uninformed) who were saying that getting the vaccine would prevent those vaccinated from 1) getting it, and 2) passing it on.

It appears (and I may be wrong) the vaccine only protects the person who gets it from developing (bad) symptoms but you can still send it on it's way to others, and there is no such thing as herd immunity for eliminating the virus.

Also, it appears to jump species to species. Deer are carriers.

There will never be a time without COVID-19. It is forever. The restrictions can not be forever. Some where in there the politics needs to be separated from this so it’s dealt with correctly. So far that has been a bar to high for our leadership since this **** happened last year.

 

[Rushie]

The breakthrough cases that result in hospitalization tend to be in older individuals who got the vaccine early.

Do you think that’s because their immunity is wearing off, or are they tweaking the vaccine to account for new variants?

 

[weilke]

The way I remember is that the Pfizer and Moderna were announced to have 94% efficacy... which, to me in my poor knuckle-dragger medical knowledge, meant that it wouldn't work in 6% of the cases. I also remember that the J&J was initially announced to have 88% efficacy,

The approval studies were based on a study subject developing clinical symptoms of covid. As such, they did not include asymptomatic cases picked up through surveillance testing. The studies did collect serum samples to test for antibodies (zero inversion), but I haven't seen the data on that yet. The seroconversion rate would give us a better idea how well the vaccine works at reducing asymptomatic infection. However, that data is based on the virus cirvulating in TX and South Africa last August/September, it doesn't appear to have much bearing on what we are seeing right now.

 

[Tarheelpilot]

Still seeing ads on TV for getting the vaccine that don't put it in those words. The ads are selling the "guarantee."

Without getting too political, I'm guessing most people who haven't got the vax vs those that did *probably* falls along party lines. I mean, wouldn't you just want the other party to lose voters?

That is a bad assumption. Within my close circle of friends there are two non vaccinated. Both are crazy extremists politically and they can not be in the same room. The debate just never ends between them….

 

[weilke]

Do you think that’s because their immunity is wearing off, or are they tweaking the vaccine to account for new variants?

Probably a combination of:
- weaker immune response to the vaccine in older adults
- weaker immune response to the virus in older adults
- longer elapsed time as they were in group1 that got vaccinated in Dec/Jan.

 

[eman1200]

...Also, it appears to jump species to species. Deer are carriers.

were deer at OSH? asking for a friend. no that's not true, I'm the one asking. I tried to fib a little bit.

 

[SoonerAviator]

I just wonder where the point is where it gets "accepted" by the populace and we just deal with it like the cold/flu? What I mean is, at a certain point we will have reached the maximum amount of public being vaccinated (we may already be close to that point). A not-insignificant amount of the remaining unvaccinated individuals will contract Covid and get through it (or die). So then we are left with a population of vaccinated (and those who have already had it and their bodies learned to fight it off). When is that point when it is deemed "safe to continue" as the population is as prepared as it will ever be?

 

[Clip4]

It is rather well document Sturgis spread the virus. With Delta variant Oshkosh would be no different.

 

[EdFred]

I just wonder where the point is where it gets "accepted" by the populace and we just deal with it like the cold/flu? What I mean is, at a certain point we will have reached the maximum amount of public being vaccinated (we may already be close to that point). A not-insignificant amount of the remaining unvaccinated individuals will contract Covid and get through it (or die). So then we are left with a population of vaccinated (and those who have already had it and their bodies learned to fight it off). When is that point when it is deemed "safe to continue" as the population is as prepared as it will ever be?

There will be a significant part of the population that will never accept it.

 

[pilotrick]

if you can say, was he also tested for influenza? If not, how does anyone know his flu-like symptoms weren't actually caused by the flu?

think about it...

I thought about it! I did mention that he tested positive for covid-19! Perhaps he had both but it's safe to say he got covid at oshkosh and was fully vaxed. He is better now (thanks for asking) and had a mild case. He is 75 years old and is in great health. He was vaxed very early on. Everyone in our group of 20 were vaccinated and there were no other positive tests after oshkosh. I think only 4 or 5 of us got tested after oshkosh.

 

[kmacht]

It is rather well document Sturgis spread the virus. With Delta variant Oshkosh would be no different.

Can you cite the studies showing that sturgis spread the virus? The only documentation I have seen has been news stories saying how it could be a spreader event up to and during the week of sturgis. I never saw any evidence after it was over that it actually was.

 

[GaryM]

Can you cite the studies showing that sturgis spread the virus? The only documentation I have seen has been news stories saying how it could be a spreader event up to and during the week of sturgis. I never saw any evidence after it was over that it actually was.

Here is one study. https://www.keloland.com/keloland-c...w-sturgis-rally-triggered-spread-of-covid-19/

The link is to a news story, but the study it references--tracking cases in Minnesota that were linked to last year's Sturgis rally--is at the bottom of the article.

 

[write-stuff]

Can you cite the studies showing that sturgis spread the virus? The only documentation I have seen has been news stories saying how it could be a spreader event up to and during the week of sturgis. I never saw any evidence after it was over that it actually was.

Here ya go:

https://academic.oup.com/cid/article/73/Supplement_1/S106/6257584

 

[Katamarino]

"Without getting too political, I'm guessing most people who haven't got the vax vs those that did *probably* falls along party lines. I mean, wouldn't you just want the other party to lose voters?

The problem is that the virus circulates within the large unvaccinated pool, mutates, and likely shifts to a variant which can defeat the virus; thus becoming a problem for everyone again.

Unvaccinated also expect medical care, subsidized by everyone else, when they catch COVID - and take up medical resources that could be used to help people who deserve it.

Foreign countries also tend to keep travel restrictions against places that have large pools of unvaccinated, with disease circulating; maybe not a problem for Bubba from Buttcrack, Arkansas but an issue for the rest of us who like to have wider horizons.

 

[EdFred]

Unvaccinated also expect medical care, subsidized by everyone else, when they catch COVID - and take up medical resources that could be used to help people who deserve it.

There is an absolutely simple solution to this issue.

 

[eman1200]

The problem is that the virus circulates within the large unvaccinated pool, mutates, and likely shifts to a variant which can defeat the virus; thus becoming a problem for everyone again.

except that it's also circulating within the vaccinated pool. you just choose not to represent that.

Unvaccinated also expect medical care, subsidized by everyone else, when they catch COVID - and take up medical resources that could be used to help people who deserve it...

are you saying the unvax'd are also uninsured?

 

[EdFred]

except that it's also circulating within the vaccinated pool. you just choose not to represent that.
are you saying the unvax'd are also uninsured?

Even if insured, they are being subsidized by others in their insurance pool. But that's also exactly how insurance is supposed to work. I'm guessing many of the hospitalized are on MC, though.

 

[Checkout_my_Six]

....and all that is true for folks who have already had it and are now "naturally immune". But that's against the narrative so the media will say nothing.(see the Cleveland Clinc Study of thousands of medical workers)

Recall a plane load of vaccinated defectors from Texas takes off for DC and lands with a dozen or more infected....need I say any more?

A vaccine isn't a guarantee against catching the disease. A vaccine makes it more difficult for the virus to get a foothold and allows your body to fight it far more effectively. Most breakthrough infections are milder and of shorter duration than those of the unvaccinated. Over 99% of those hospitalized for COVID right now are unvaccinated. Get the bloody vaccine. It's safe and highly effective.

 

[steingar]

I think a huge problem vis a vis COVID is it is rampant all over the world. People move from place to place all the time. The longer it has us for an ecosystem, the more opportunity for it to evolve. Sooner or later the vaccines will just be an obstacle for a rapidly expanding and evolving virus, and it will adapt to get around the first generation vaccines. We may be playing vaccine catch up for a long time to come. This may not be the last Oshkosh where we have this discussion. But yes, sooner or later we'll have declare everything normal and just get on with it.

 

[steingar]

....and all that is true for folks who have already had it and are now "naturally immune". But that's against the narrative so the media will say nothing.

Interestingly, the vaccines seem more protective than actually having the illness. I have some theories about that, but no hard evidence. That said eventually we'll reach a level where folks have either had it or been vaccinated. At that point things should be back to normal, assuming we don't get hit with an immunologically distinct strain to which our vaccines don't work...

 

[Checkout_my_Six]

It is rather well document Sturgis spread the virus. With Delta variant Oshkosh would be no different.

Maybe even the recent Martha's Vineyard outbreak of sophisticated vaxr's.....?

 

[Clip4]

http://ftp.iza.org/dp13670.pdf


Page 23. We find that over the full post-treatment period, the Sturgis Rally was associated with a 1.63 to 2.09 increase in COVID-19 cases per 1,000 people in Meade County (Panel I). This corresponds to a 76.8 to 98.5 percent increase in cumulative COVID-19 cases relative to its estimated synthetic counterfactual.

 

[bflynn]

Vaccinated, there for a week. I felt bad for a few days after coming home…sore throat and a runny nose but a test said it wasn’t COVID.

 

[Checkout_my_Six]

so now they're seeing 40-50 per day vs the 10-20 per day?

http://ftp.iza.org/dp13670.pdf


Page 23. We find that over the full post-treatment period, the Sturgis Rally was associated with a 1.63 to 2.09 increase in COVID-19 cases per 1,000 people in Meade County (Panel I). This corresponds to a 76.8 to 98.5 percent increase in cumulative COVID-19 cases relative to its estimated synthetic counterfactual.

 

[PeterNSteinmetz]

The problem is that the virus circulates within the large unvaccinated pool, mutates, and likely shifts to a variant which can defeat the virus; thus becoming a problem for everyone again.

Unvaccinated also expect medical care, subsidized by everyone else, when they catch COVID - and take up medical resources that could be used to help people who deserve it.

Foreign countries also tend to keep travel restrictions against places that have large pools of unvaccinated, with disease circulating; maybe not a problem for Bubba from Buttcrack, Arkansas but an issue for the rest of us who like to have wider horizons.

So I guess that was about 2 hours after re-opening of the thread.

IBTL

 

[bflynn]

The problem is that the virus circulates within the large unvaccinated pool, mutates, and likely shifts to a variant which can defeat the virus; thus becoming a problem for everyone again.

In the interest of correctness - the virus mutates when it replicates and it can only replicate when it is inside a living cell. The vaccine prevents replication and do not increase the likelihood of a replication being a mutation. It is orders of magnitude more likely that mutations happen in unvaccinated people.

now that this argument has started…IBTL

 

[EdFred]

In the interest of correctness - the virus mutates when it replicates and it can only replicate when it is inside a living cell. The vaccine prevents replication and do not increase the likelihood of a replication being a mutation. It is orders of magnitude more likely that mutations happen in unvaccinated people.

now that this argument has started…IBTL

I am not entirely sure that the vaccine prevents replication as they are now saying it is being passed on by those that are vaccinated.

 

[Checkout_my_Six]

not according to the doctors and scientist at the Cleveland Clinic.... https://www.news-medical.net/news/2...ID-19-Findings-of-Cleveland-Clinic-study.aspx

"Scientists from the Cleveland Clinic, USA, have recently evaluated the effectiveness of coronavirus disease 2019 COVID-19) vaccination among individuals with or without a history of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection.

The study findings reveal that individuals with previous SARS-CoV-2 infection do not get additional benefits from vaccination, indicating that COVID-19 vaccines should be prioritized to individuals without prior infection"

Interestingly, the vaccines seem more protective than actually having the illness. I have some theories about that, but no hard evidence. That said eventually we'll reach a level where folks have either had it or been vaccinated. At that point things should be back to normal, assuming we don't get hit with an immunologically distinct strain to which our vaccines don't work...

 

[Katamarino]

So I guess that was about 2 hours after re-opening of the thread.

IBTL

True, maybe I should have posted links to anti-mask "studies" with misleading excerpts instead.

 

[Katamarino]

except that it's also circulating within the vaccinated pool. you just choose not to represent that.



are you saying the unvax'd are also uninsured?

It circulates hundreds of times less within the vaccinated, and likely wouldn't circulate at all if enough were vaccinated. I represented things perfectly accurately.

As to your second point, do you understand how insurance works? Do you think the money to pay for treatment of the unvaccinated is magically only taken from the premiums of other unvaccinated people?

 

[PeterNSteinmetz]

In the interest of correctness - the virus mutates when it replicates and it can only replicate when it is inside a living cell. The vaccine prevents replication and do not increase the likelihood of a replication being a mutation. It is orders of magnitude more likely that mutations happen in unvaccinated people.

now that this argument has started…IBTL

I don’t know that there is hard data out there on the likelihood of mutant forms of the virus arising in vaccinated versus unvaccinated people and then spreading.

One can make theoretical arguments either way. I would suspect that at most the difference would be 1 order of magnitude since many of the vaccines in use were about 90% effective in preventing infection in the original studies, not 10% or 99%.

This pandemic involves a lot of percentages like that and does not well conform to the usual qualitative descriptions of being “completely effective” or “worthless”. Thus many of the overheated arguments which are the equivalent of “it’s black”, “no it’s white” when the real answer is it is about a 70% shade of gray.

Returning now to the normal arguments over qualitative distinctions …

 

[eman1200]

It circulates hundreds of times less within the vaccinated, and likely wouldn't circulate at all if enough were vaccinated. I represented things perfectly accurately.

As to your second point, do you understand how insurance works? Do you think the money to pay for treatment of the unvaccinated is magically only taken from the premiums of other unvaccinated people?

How is the pool for an infected unvaccinated person different from the pool for an infected vaccinated person?