Pilot shortage once again....

Unit74

Unit74

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Unit74
As I stated on another thread, nothing will change until the airlines grow some stones and start canceling hundreds of DC Area flights due to "Pilot Shortage". Until the DC staffers, (or more importantly, all of the SJW leeches that make their living off of Government money) start complaining about the canceled flights, will anything get done.
 
Kind of like the nursing occupation. Crappy conditions, crappy pay. Now, good pay, still crappy conditions.
 
As I mentioned in another thread along these lines, there are plenty of pilots out there, it's just a good amount had the door get closed on them when the 1500 hr ATP rule went into effect. The pool is far more limited then it was 5+ years ago. Before, 250+ hours would get you into the right seat of an RJ. Building time as a CFI wasn't as much of a need after graduating from a 4 year aviation college as it now. It's a good change, but it's also a curse. 80k of debt, to get 24k a year job.
 
If I wasn't already in this field, I'd not be pursuing it. I'd go with an engineering or professional medical discipline or just go into business.
 
I'm definitely not saying it's a bad field because it isn't. If it's what you want, you can make a living with it and it's worth it. There is money to be made within aviation, it just takes time to get there.
 
James331 said:
It's not a shortage of pilots, it's a shortage of folks with the required experience who will work in bad conditions and for bad pay.
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Which is ironic, because the regionals that have started to raise their pay to a liveable somewhat fair wage have no problem getting people to show up. Imagine that
 
KSCessnaDriver said:
Which is ironic, because the regionals that have started to raise their pay to a liveable somewhat fair wage have no problem getting people to show up. Imagine that
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Exactly, Trans States and GO Jet offer pretty decent 1st year wages with 5k+ sign on bonuses and also say "No time sitting reserve as a new hire". It's only a matter of time before the rest have to offer this to match their competition. If one can fair living on low wages for a few years, upgrade time is pretty quick with some. My old flight instructor started with PSA back in 2014 and upgraded to captain around the first of this year. It's not as long of a road to the majors as it has been.
 
Ryanb said:
Exactly, Trans States and GO Jet offer pretty decent 1st year wages with 5k+ sign on bonuses and also say "No time sitting reserve as a new hire". It's only a matter of time before the rest have to offer this to match their competition. If one can fair living on low wages for a few years, upgrade time is pretty quick with some. My old flight instructor started with PSA back in 2014 and upgraded to captain around the first of this year. It's not as long of a road to the majors as it has been.
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TSA and (No)GoJet are nowhere near the top in terms of regional first year pay. They're closer to the bottom...

But yes, they've all gone up, some significantly more that others
 
Living wage isn't good enough.

I demand a wage that matches the level of responsibility I'm charged with, pay up, fly the plane yourself, or shut it down.
 
Yes, one of the reasons for the looming pilot shortage is the 1500 hour rule but before blaming the FAA, you need to understand that it was mandated by Congress. The FAA had no choice but to comply. Even so,when military pilots can go 121 with 750 hours and graduates of an aviation program with a BS degree can do so with just 1000 hours; the 1500 hour floor is really less of a factor than many think it is.

As a side note, I personally do not know if the ability or knowledge of a pilot with a BS degree is far superior to that of one without a BS degree but I really doubt it. I have no idea how that came about.

A bigger issue is there are less new pilots entering the pool than ever before. Less pilots overall mean less hitting the magical number of 1500 or 1000 or 750. And when you consider many potential airline pilots (except for the prior military ones) build their hours instructing, well the problem is compounded. After all if there are less students to instruct then it becomes harder to build hours by instructing alone.

To be honest, I like the idea of having a higher standard to become an airline pilot. 250 hours and just a CPL to fly a sophisticated jet aircraft carrying a bunch of people is far too low of an experience level in my opinion. I do think however that 1500 hours to be in the right seat might be too restrictive.

One possible option that I like is lowering the minimum to 750 - 1000 hours but still requiring an ATP written and checkride for the right seat while leaving the 1500 hour ATP for the left seat.

One thing for certain, this issue will not be resolved anytime soon as changing it at this point would require congress to do something.
 
SkyDog58 said:
Yes, one of the reasons for the looming pilot shortage is the 1500 hour rule but before blaming the FAA, you need to understand that it was mandated by Congress. The FAA had no choice but to comply. Even so,when military pilots can go 121 with 750 hours and graduates of an aviation program with a BS degree can do so with just 1000 hours; the 1500 hour floor is really less of a factor than many think it is.

As a side note, I personally do not know if the ability or knowledge of a pilot with a BS degree is far superior to that of one without a BS degree but I really doubt it. I have no idea how that came about.

A bigger issue is there are less new pilots entering the pool than ever before. Less pilots overall mean less hitting the magical number of 1500 or 1000 or 750. And when you consider many potential airline pilots (except for the prior military ones) build their hours instructing, well the problem is compounded. After all if there are less students to instruct then it becomes harder to build hours by instructing alone.

To be honest, I like the idea of having a higher standard to become an airline pilot. 250 hours and just a CPL to fly a sophisticated jet aircraft carrying a bunch of people is far too low of an experience level in my opinion. I do think however that 1500 hours to be in the right seat might be too restrictive.

One possible option that I like is lowering the minimum to 750 - 1000 hours but still requiring an ATP written and checkride for the right seat while leaving the 1500 hour ATP for the left seat.

One thing for certain, this issue will not be resolved anytime soon as changing it at this point would require congress to do something.
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I think they need to just have a ATP, as in full on ATP, no ATP lite, no "frozen" ATP like abroad, ATP means ATP.
 
No one has really talked much about the pilots that have the minimums and are not willing to work at the airlines because of the pay. There are lots of people that could have a job in the regionals that are not willing to go. That has nothing to do with the 1500 hour requirement mandated by congress or any FAA regulatory impact. It's strictly a function of pay and career advancement.
 
Tarheelpilot said:
No one has really talked much about the pilots that have the minimums and are not willing to work at the airlines because of the pay. There are lots of people that could have a job in the regionals that are not willing to go. That has nothing to do with the 1500 hour requirement mandated by congress or any FAA regulatory impact. It's strictly a function of pay and career advancement.
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That is absolutely true as well. If you are already making a decent living and happen to end up with the ratings and hours, that doesn't necessarily make you want to take a dent in QOL just to fly for the airlines. There are other ways to make a living both inside and outside of aviation that pay well and are rewarding.
 
James331 said:
It's not a shortage of pilots, it's a shortage of folks with the required experience who will work in bad conditions and for bad pay.
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Exactly right! If the starting salary for a regional jet pilot was 50,000 like many college educated professions are, you'd not only have no shortage, you'd have stiff competition. It truly is amazing that they can staff even 50% of regional flights when people are asked to spend 10,000's of thousands of dollars to get the ratings and time to even get to make 25,000 dollar starting pay.
 
jspilot said:
Exactly right! If the starting salary for a regional jet pilot was 50,000 like many college educated professions are, you'd not only have no shortage, you'd have stiff competition. It truly is amazing that they can staff even 50% of regional flights when people are asked to spend 10,000's of thousands of dollars to get the ratings and time to even get to make 25,000 dollar starting pay.
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First year pilots at my company make $50K. It's all about thinking long term. First year pay for most regionals suck. Once you get to second and third year pay it's fine.
 
Even without considering the pay, do that many people want to spend their careers flying back and forth between city pairs? I'll probably get flamed here because this is a pilot board but...
 
Tarheelpilot said:
No one has really talked much about the pilots that have the minimums and are not willing to work at the airlines because of the pay. There are lots of people that could have a job in the regionals that are not willing to go. That has nothing to do with the 1500 hour requirement mandated by congress or any FAA regulatory impact. It's strictly a function of pay and career advancement.
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No shortage of pilots here, just a shortage of people that have or can quickly get an ATP. I have suddenly become a hot commodity.

I started flying in my mid 30s, commercially in my later 30s so I had no desire to fly for a major or regional airline. Allergic to ties is one problem. So staying 135 kept me on the low end of the scale for a while. Not so anymore. Lots of opportunities for me now. With my other business investments, I don't need to fly but I do because I like it.
 
Exactly.

Thing is long term you got to look at the company and how long till you make good money, the cut you'll take to switch seats and the likley hood of the company making bad business decisions which will hang you out to dry.

If I went to the 121 world, it'd have to be a major legacy, even with the sign on and slightly improved pay, I wouldn't touch a regional with a 10' stick, it's great, they are feeling it, and the majors are feeling it too

Let em suffer, better for us, out of their expenses pilot pay isn't really even anywhere near a large expense for them big picture, they got comfy knowing they could get guys to work for peanuts, well guess what, gravy train has left the station, things have improved, but they still got a long way to go and their well is already almost dry, not a single tear shall I shed.
 
Tarheelpilot said:
No one has really talked much about the pilots that have the minimums and are not willing to work at the airlines because of the pay. There are lots of people that could have a job in the regionals that are not willing to go. That has nothing to do with the 1500 hour requirement mandated by congress or any FAA regulatory impact. It's strictly a function of pay and career advancement.
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This a good point, actually.

Some of the Fractionals (like NetJets) pay as much, or more than many of the regionals do, for a LOT less headaches. Corporate flying has really exploded since the late 90's, adding to the shortages, as well.
 
SkyDog58 said:
Yes, one of the reasons for the looming pilot shortage is the 1500 hour rule but before blaming the FAA, you need to understand that it was mandated by Congress. The FAA had no choice but to comply. Even so,when military pilots can go 121 with 750 hours and graduates of an aviation program with a BS degree can do so with just 1000 hours; the 1500 hour floor is really less of a factor than many think it is.

As a side note, I personally do not know if the ability or knowledge of a pilot with a BS degree is far superior to that of one without a BS degree but I really doubt it. I have no idea how that came about.

A bigger issue is there are less new pilots entering the pool than ever before. Less pilots overall mean less hitting the magical number of 1500 or 1000 or 750. And when you consider many potential airline pilots (except for the prior military ones) build their hours instructing, well the problem is compounded. After all if there are less students to instruct then it becomes harder to build hours by instructing alone.

To be honest, I like the idea of having a higher standard to become an airline pilot. 250 hours and just a CPL to fly a sophisticated jet aircraft carrying a bunch of people is far too low of an experience level in my opinion. I do think however that 1500 hours to be in the right seat might be too restrictive.

One possible option that I like is lowering the minimum to 750 - 1000 hours but still requiring an ATP written and checkride for the right seat while leaving the 1500 hour ATP for the left seat.

One thing for certain, this issue will not be resolved anytime soon as changing it at this point would require congress to do something.
Click to expand...


" I do think however that 1500 hours to be in the right seat might be too restrictive. " Definitely agree with that. Hours equals experience, which is a great instructor. But a 1500 hr ATP should be able to mentor a less experienced FO- Say 500 hours. That requirement proves the arbitrary (which is redundant when paired with "Congressionally mandated") nature of this discussion.
 
Good riddance to the regionals who go bust having built their whole business model on getting pilots working for a fast food salary and having to pay for their own type ratings. Let them die and give way to the good airlines who treat people correct.
 
Most pilots agree there is a plateau at 500 hours. Then its a matter of overcoming complacency and not bothering to follow the rules. But 1500 hours is the law, so what can you do? Nice to hear there is a shortage, maybe that will bump the pay so pilots can pay off their loans.
 
John Bussard said:
" I do think however that 1500 hours to be in the right seat might be too restrictive. " Definitely agree with that. Hours equals experience, which is a great instructor. But a 1500 hr ATP should be able to mentor a less experienced FO- Say 500 hours. That requirement proves the arbitrary (which is redundant when paired with "Congressionally mandated") nature of this discussion.
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Too restrictive? This ain't a checkout on a PA28, I'd say 1500 is about right.
 
FlyingElvii said:
This a good point, actually.

Some of the Fractionals (like NetJets) pay as much, or more than many of the regionals do, for a LOT less headaches. Corporate flying has really exploded since the late 90's, adding to the shortages, as well.
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Some corporate flying really sucks! Especially a closely held Corp where the jet is half owners toy, half corporate tool. I've seen this up close and personal.

Fractional or a large Corp (think 3M) would be fine.
 
James331 said:
Too restrictive? This ain't a checkout on a PA28, I'd say 1500 is about right.
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Yeah, that quote was from the above post. You're right it isn't a PA-28. But to restrict both crew positions removes a reasonable apprenticeship approach to building time. A good way for suitably prepared, lower time pilots to learn would be to spend quality hours in a similar environment to where they want to end up. By focusing on quantity we potentially sacrifice quality.
 
John Bussard said:
Yeah, that quote was from the above post. You're right it isn't a PA-28. But to restrict both crew positions removes a reasonable apprenticeship approach to building time. A good way for suitably prepared, lower time pilots to learn would be to spend quality hours in a similar environment to where they want to end up. By focusing on quantity we potentially sacrifice quality.
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It's not a class room, it's a airliner with 100s of souls aboard, you need to be ready for the big leagues before you try to show up for the big game.

I don't fly a airliner, our requirements are nearly double that of a ATP.

For a high level pilot, 1500 ain't asking for much, and in my opinion most of that should be PIC single pilot.
 
James331 said:
It's not a class room, it's a airliner with 100s of souls aboard, you need to be ready for the big leagues before you try to show up for the big game.

I don't fly a airliner, our requirements are nearly double that of a ATP.

For a high level pilot, 1500 ain't asking for much, and in my opinion most of that should be PIC single pilot.
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Agreed. But regardless of crew position? PIC needs it, I think that's reasonable. But the right seat too?
 
James331 said:
It's not a class room, it's a airliner with 100s of souls aboard, you need to be ready for the big leagues before you try to show up for the big game.

I don't fly a airliner, our requirements are nearly double that of a ATP.

For a high level pilot, 1500 ain't asking for much, and in my opinion most of that should be PIC single pilot.
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Because flying in the right seat of a 152 totally does that.... What do you propose people do to get to 1500 hours if you want them to have that much single pilot time.
 
KSCessnaDriver said:
Because flying in the right seat of a 152 totally does that.... What do you propose people do to get to 1500 hours if you want them to have that much single pilot time.
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Pipeline

Charter

Fly aboard

DZ

ETC ETC.

It's being the first and last opinion on the cockpit, it's knowing the buck starts and stops with you
 
James331 said:
It's not a class room, it's a airliner with 100s of souls aboard, you need to be ready for the big leagues before you try to show up for the big game.

I don't fly a airliner, our requirements are nearly double that of a ATP.

For a high level pilot, 1500 ain't asking for much, and in my opinion most of that should be PIC single pilot.
Click to expand...


Not sure there were any major accidents (121)before the 1500 rule where a 250-1499hr co-pilot pilot was the main cause. If anything, once you're trained for a type rating and flying with an experienced captain you become safer quicker.
 
I am seriously asking this question because I have heard about the impending pilot shortage so many times. I have heard others talk about these shortages in the past. Some say it never came to fruition. Some say it is just counselor or recruiter talk to get you to commit to an aviation career or major. I am now skeptical every time I hear about it now and don't know what to believe. I am going for the airline career regardless because I don't want to do anything else so it will not make a difference to me or change my decision in the end. I just want to know what kind of setting I will be entering in 3 years when I have the 1500 hours.

Is there really a shortage this time or going to be one, one that actually effects first year pay favorably? Was there ever a pilot shortage in the past and how did the industry (regarding wages) react that time?
 
Mike5250 said:
Not sure there were any major accidents (121)before the 1500 rule where a 250-1499hr co-pilot pilot was the main cause. If anything, once you're trained for a type rating and flying with an experienced captain you become safer quicker.
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Hey, the pilots of the Colgan crash that pretty much precipitated the 1500 hour rule only had 3,379 hours and 2,244 hours. Oh, wait... never mind.
 
Landshark said:
Is there really a shortage this time or going to be one, one that actually effects first year pay favorably? Was there ever a pilot shortage in the past and how did the industry (regarding wages) react that time?
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It is accurate to say that there really is a shortage of qualified applicants right now at the regional level. I'm at 1000 hrs now and have been told to go ahead and apply/interview now by a couple of regionals. They said they'd put me in a class as soon as I hit 1460.

There is no shortage of applicants at the majors, although the majors are hiring right now and you are seeing fewer and fewer pilots at the majors sitting reserve. That said, unless you are coming from the military or previous 121, the majors won't talk to you.

Hard to say what it will be like in a year or three. I don't know that you'll ever see a true shortage at the major level, but things could get interesting at the regionals.

One thing to keep in mind: All it takes is for the economy to tank and then jets get parked in the desert and suddenly there is no shortage and it's back to furloughs.

Right now, with the current state of the global economy, we could be looking at a true worldwide depression in the next couple years regardless of who gets elected in November.

Personally, I think the economy will take care of any shortage problem.
 
Landshark said:
I am seriously asking this question because I have heard about the impending pilot shortage so many times. I have heard others talk about these shortages in the past. Some say it never came to fruition. Some say it is just counselor or recruiter talk to get you to commit to an aviation career or major. I am now skeptical every time I hear about it now and don't know what to believe. I am going for the airline career regardless because I don't want to do anything else so it will not make a difference to me or change my decision in the end. I just want to know what kind of setting I will be entering in 3 years when I have the 1500 hours.

Is there really a shortage this time or going to be one, one that actually effects first year pay favorably? Was there ever a pilot shortage in the past and how did the industry (regarding wages) react that time?
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The regionals are hiring like mad now. Who knows what it's going to be like in a few years?
 
Everskyward said:
Even without considering the pay, do that many people want to spend their careers flying back and forth between city pairs? I'll probably get flamed here because this is a pilot board but...
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This is probably one of my driving factors staying 91. I'll fly to London, Paris and New York. I'll let others fly Dayton, Detroit and Jacksonville
 
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