PA28 down near Ann Arbor, Michigan

Origin was Ann Arbor with a stop in Adrian. Looks like it might have been doing ground reference maneuvers prior. It circled once pretty much over 7N4 before heading straight back toward Ann Arbor at around 2500-ish feet.

About 2 minutes later it started descending and entered a left pattern and approach to the ag field it ultimately crashed in. Might be a real, but could very possibly be a simulated engine out, given the ostensibly instructional nature of the flight to that point. The crash happened about 1.6 total after departing Ann Arbor.

Local weather was variable surface winds from the north-northwest, generally a scattered layer from 038-040, temp 17°C. Winds aloft at 030 were forecast to be out of the northwest at 13kts.

Given that, it would have been a quartering tailwind from the left during the final approach. The base to final turn looked tighter than the others (and a steep descent there), but the resolution of the track isn’t high enough to infer much else. The track ends at 1200’, local elevation is about 850-900’.
 
That’s unfortunate. I’m not sure im getting a complete understanding of the options available and the situation, but from what i can see i would have thought that was a survivable situation for all aboard. RIP.
 
Old97 said:
That’s unfortunate. I’m not sure im getting a complete understanding of the options available and the situation, but from what i can see i would have thought that was a survivable situation for all aboard. RIP.
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My initial impression based on the photos of the damage is a spin, which imparts deceleration forces to which humans are very vulnerable, much less all the injury that can come from the wreckage itself. I could be wrong on that assessment and would like to see more data and photos.

The fields they were lined up on have several transverse treelines (shelter belts), as well as a 40-50’ tall set of power lines, all of which could compound an actual engine out approach or a simulated one that got too low.

Again, that’s putting the cart before the horse, but we know there was a pattern and descent made toward that field, so something made them do it. The fact the airplane never made it back up, the twisting of the metal, all kind of points to something happening down low that made the aircraft either unable to climb out of a simulated engine out at a safe airspeed (which might include error) or interfered with an actual engine-out landing attempt.
 
Old97 said:
That’s unfortunate. I’m not sure im getting a complete understanding of the options available and the situation, but from what i can see i would have thought that was a survivable situation for all aboard. RIP.
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From the pictures, I wouldn't expect anyone to survive. Appears to be a stall/spin into the ground.
 
Capt. Geoffrey Thorpe said:
From the pictures, I wouldn't expect anyone to survive. Appears to be a stall/spin into the ground.
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Sure - but I was thinking in terms of engine trouble over a bunch of farmland. The map shows a lot of fairly open fields.
 
I wonder how much of the damage is from the extraction process. It's been opened like a tuna can.
 
Flying Keys said:
Given that, it would have been a quartering tailwind from the left during the final approach. The base to final turn looked tighter than the others (and a steep descent there),
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Which implies the illusion of a skid, and the higher groundspeed would impart the illusion of too much airspeed, prompting the unwary pilot into slowing and banking more and maybe getting an accelerated stall and spin.

Maybe.
 
another thing that hit me from the pictures that supports a stall spin isi see no lateral tracks from the aircraft, other than those made by the emergency responders. it appears that it came straight down with no forward motion.
 
Looking at the little bit of data we have, my wild ass guess: They ran out of fuel. Turned around and tried to make it back to 7N4. Trying to stretch the glide they stalled and spun into the ground. This is just a wild ass guess based on the crash site wreckage and the ADSB data. Very sad! The CFI and I have a couple of mutual friends.
 
AlphaMike said:
Looking at the little bit of data we have, my wild ass guess: They ran out of fuel. Turned around and tried to make it back to 7N4. Trying to stretch the glide they stalled and spun into the ground. This is just a wild ass guess based on the crash site wreckage and the ADSB data. Very sad! The CFI and I have a couple of mutual friends.
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Possibly. To me, the pattern looks as if the base to final turn back to the east (away from 7N4) was intentional, as in the aircraft was still under control at that time. They only had about 2000’ AGL and were less than 2nm from 7N4 when the descent initiated. Maybe they initially thought 7N4 and decided better of it.

But there was quite a descent rate in that base to final, as if it was an attempt to get down quicker, before stabilizing a bit, then dropping off the ADS-B.
 
LiveATC.net recording is labeled "KARB Tower", for 6/10, 17:00 to 17:30Z. Doesn't add much information.
Start listening at 08:40
39X calls up, "14 miles to the SW, inbound with weather, and full stop".
Nothing more heard from 39X, and tower doesn't make any calls for them either.
At about 19:40 in the recording, tower advises of an emergency, 13 miles SW.
 
I’m not going to name the school (and I didn’t know this particular CFI), but my experience with this school was NOT GOOD. And my negative experience with them I wrote off as personality differences, but it entailed a lack of safety. I’m also not saying that has anything to do with this accident, but it makes me think…
 
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