Over/Under Covid 19 deaths in US

[DFH65]

Apparently the doctors in New York don't thing they have enough ventilators, as they are starting to share them among patients.

You may think the current precautions are too drastic, but I have yet to hear an epidemiologist say that. Most of what I've read is that we need to increase the number of mandatory shelter in place orders.

I can't read the article due to pay wall. Not saying it isn't a problem but does they article say they ARE putting two people on a vent or they MAY have to? The reason I ask is I am a data guy I am very frustrated with the, "we may run out of PPE" or "we may run out of vents". How many do you have? How many short are you? How many people are sharing one? Otherwise it is just noise. I am sure they are being stretched. Most hospitals are not operating with a bunch of empty rooms and ICU beds it isn't profitable.

 

[deonb]

I can't read the article due to pay wall. Not saying it isn't a problem but does they article say they ARE putting two people on a vent or they MAY have to? The reason I ask is I am a data guy I am very frustrated with the, "we may run out of PPE" or "we may run out of vents". How many do you have? How many short are you? How many people are sharing one? Otherwise it is just noise. I am sure they are being stretched. Most hospitals are not operating with a bunch of empty rooms and ICU beds it isn't profitable.

They are testing the sharing at this point. They haven't run out yet.

 

[DFH65]

They are testing the sharing at this point. They haven't run out yet.

Sounds like from today's WH press briefing there were a lot more vents sent there and they didn't know where they were. Hopefully that is sorted out.

 

[deonb]

Sounds like from today's WH press briefing there were a lot more vents sent there and they didn't know where they were. Hopefully that is sorted out.

We need to start involving the Defense Logistics Agency for this.

 

[AlleyCat67]

Do you suppose there’s an epidemiological forum someplace online where the members are vigorously arguing about flying airplanes?

 

[FormerHangie]

Dr. Anthony Fauci has weighed in , and he's solidly in the over 25,000 camp: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news...llions-trump-considers-guidelines/2935804001/

 

[JamesA320]

I understand you are just presenting the data and not necessarily arguing. However, there is new data about the Diamond Princess on the CDC’s website. https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6912e3.htm

3711 total people
2999 not infected (80.8%)
712 infected (19.2%)
9 deaths (50% higher than the previous data!)
(1.3%)


So if we do the 330 million US pop x 19.2% x 1.3% you get 823,000 US deaths

The Diamond Princess cruise ship was almost the perfect lab experiment. With zero social distancing they had:
- 3700 total people
- 3081 not infected (84%)
- 619 infected (16%)
- 6 deaths (just under 1%)

If we are going to cause another great depression that will last 10 years and cost $100 trillion dollars in lost GDP we might want to look at multiple datapoints.

We probably should also discount public officials who said 2 weeks ago their state CURRENTLY had 100,000 cases of covid-19
https://thehill.com/policy/healthca...mates-100000-people-in-state-have-coronavirus

when 2 weeks LATER the actual number is...704

 

[Salty]

I understand you are just presenting the data and not necessarily arguing. However, there is new data about the Diamond Princess on the CDC’s website. https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6912e3.htm

3711 total people
2999 not infected (80.8%)
712 infected (19.2%)
9 deaths (50% higher than the previous data!)
(1.3%)


So if we do the 330 million US pop x 19.2% x 1.3% you get 823,000 US deaths

So, your assumption is all 330 million Americans live on a cruise ship. Okay then.

 

[PPC1052]

(Italy’s life expectancy is 3 1/2 years longer than the US; they’re ranked 5th, to our 35th. Yes, they have an older population, so they’re hit harder - but it’s because they live longer, due to things which include a good healthcare system).

Not taking away from your other points, which I think are spot on, but I am not sure how reflective of reality these statistics are. Is their life expectancy 3.5 more years because they actually live longer, or are the U.S. numbers skewed lower by higher infant mortality? And, do they define their infant mortality rates the same? I know a lot of European nations discount the number of live births by reducing from that tally those born with various life threatening conditions, such as extreme pre-term births. I'm not sure if Italy does that, too. Also, do they really have an older average population because they live longer, or because their birth rates per adult are so much lower than the U.S.? Sorry, I guess I am picking nits. Carry on.

 

[deonb]

Sad milestone reached today:

US Deaths from COVID-19: 3146
US Deaths from 9/11 attacks: 2977

 

[tspear]

Not taking away from your other points, which I think are spot on, but I am not sure how reflective of reality these statistics are. Is their life expectancy 3.5 more years because they actually live longer, or are the U.S. numbers skewed lower by higher infant mortality? And, do they define their infant mortality rates the same? I know a lot of European nations discount the number of live births by reducing from that tally those born with various life threatening conditions, such as extreme pre-term births. I'm not sure if Italy does that, too. Also, do they really have an older average population because they live longer, or because their birth rates per adult are so much lower than the U.S.? Sorry, I guess I am picking nits. Carry on.

All the references I have seen deal with percentage of population in age groups. Never discuss longevity or other factors. Just that Italy has a lot of older people, so does Japan, especially compared to South Korea or even the USA>

Tim

 

[tspear]

Sad milestone reached today:

US Deaths from COVID-19: 3146
US Deaths from 9/11 attacks: 2977

That is depressing. What will be the financial comparison numbers?

Tim

 

[JamesA320]

Hey Salty. This is not my assumption. I replied to the person who was using the stats from the cruise ship. The point was if you are going to use those stats, then use the correct stats.

To be absolutely clear, I do not think that the USA is a cruise ship.

So, your assumption is all 330 million Americans live on a cruise ship. Okay then.

 

[weilke]

Sad milestone reached today:

US Deaths from COVID-19: 3146
US Deaths from 9/11 attacks: 2977

I am afraid this event will similar lasting effects on our way of life.

 

[FormerHangie]

Hey Salty. This is not my assumption. I replied to the person who was using the stats from the cruise ship. The point was if you are going to use those stats, then use the correct stats.

To be absolutely clear, I do not think that the USA is a cruise ship.

My wife had the TV news on last night. There was a story of a church choir group in Washington state that did a rehearsal on March 10th, which was after meeting restrictions had begun there. Of the 60 attendees, 45 have since tested positive for Covid-19.

Here in Georgia, the city of Albany/Dougherty county has had at least 24 deaths, which is the most in the state despite a relatively low population. There's an article here describing how it stems from one funeral.

 

[WannFly]

And if this continues (large gatherings in places - beach. Church, funerals) it will continue to be like this. Louisiana is next, my guess due to large gatherings that’s in the news.

PS: I have nothing against any religion or beach goers (ok, may be against beach goers since I live ... well here in the middle of corn fields) , but some common sense needs to prevail

 

[FormerHangie]

So the projections I'm seeing suggest 100,000 to 240,000 deaths, if we do a good job of flattening the curve. Even Trump has now decided this is serious, reversing his position of a few weeks ago.

 

[MooneyDriver78]

Should be pretty easy to keep your distance on a beach. Plus sunlight should kill the virus.

 

[asicer]

Plus sunlight should kill the virus.

It doesn't.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news...ght-does-not-kill-new-coronavirus/2931170001/

 

[RyanB]

Should be pretty easy to keep your distance on a beach. Plus sunlight should kill the virus.

It doesn't.

Yup, sunlight isn’t going to do it. Viruses and bacteria are killed by UVC light and that’s almost completely filtered out before reaching Earth’s surface (fortunately for the sake of human life). UVA & B aren’t antimicrobial as they’re not ionizing.

 

[MooneyDriver78]

It doesn't.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news...ght-does-not-kill-new-coronavirus/2931170001/

I thought that’s why cold/flu die off in the summer, which they are also predicting for this? Since it thrives in the body at 98.6°, it’s not the temperature.

 

[Groundpounder]

Sad milestone reached today:

US Deaths from COVID-19: 3146
US Deaths from 9/11 attacks: 2977

So as of now, about 53,000 less than died from the flu last year.

 

[azure]

I thought that’s why cold/flu die off in the summer, which they are also predicting for this? Since it thrives in the body at 98.6°, it’s not the temperature.

My understanding is it's because people spend less time during warmer months indoors, in close contact. But because this virus is apparently more contagious than influenza or most rhinoviruses, and is thriving in places like Florida, that pattern may not hold in this case. Then again, there are other reasons for seasonality of different pathogens, and we don't yet know what this virus's seasonal pattern will be, if any.

Science magazine had an interesting article about this recently.

 

[tspear]

So as of now, about 53,000 less than died from the flu last year.

Hold onto that thought for a few weeks.

Tim

 

[asicer]

I thought that’s why cold/flu die off in the summer, which they are also predicting for this? Since it thrives in the body at 98.6°, it’s not the temperature.

My understanding is that they don't die off in the summer, they just spread less. As @azure points out, it could be due to more social distance in the summer. Plus, kids are out of school. School kids are like Amazon Prime for germs.

 

[MooneyDriver78]

I found this article:

http://sitn.hms.harvard.edu/flash/2014/the-reason-for-the-season-why-flu-strikes-in-winter/

Surprisingly, it also appears humidity is a major factor...so Florida should see a dramatic drop off come May/June.

 

[Groundpounder]

Hold onto that thought for a few weeks.

Tim

I fully expect it to go beyond 53000, but for now it hasn't.

 

[Matthew Rogers]

Edit: I got the wrong quote, some member posted that it would hit 25000 on exactly April 15th as will be the case.

You were spot on. Deaths over 24000 at 19 days. Certain to hit 25000 at exactly 20 days as you predicted. You sir should get a spot on the daily press briefings.

 

[Velocity173]

Well, there goes the under crowd.

 

[Datadriver]

We get there faster when NYC decides to "juice" their COVID-19 deaths by adding over 3500 "probable" deaths for deceased they never tested.

 

[lowtimer]

With the information available now what number of US deaths (covid 19) in 2020 do the forum participants expect?

 

[deonb]

With the information available now what number of US deaths (covid 19) in 2020 do the forum participants expect?

At least 60'000 just based on current infection count. That's assuming no more spread (an invalid assumption of course).

Deaths trails infections by about 2 weeks.

The gray area is the 28'000 we have today.
The purple area is people already infected but hasn't resolved one way or the other yet.

 

[MauleSkinner]

Something I saw that I have been thinking about- As the economy crashes, what is the rise in suicides, domestic abuse, alcohol deaths and drug overdoses? And the increase in crime as people run out of money?
Someone said the AA type meetings are all cancelled, so people more likely to abuse substances are now bored and stressed at home.

My understanding is that the increase in arrests for domestic abuse and alcohol-related crimes in my county exceeds the number of COVID cases, so apparently what we’re doing is working.

 

[Juliet Hotel]

My understanding is that the increase in arrests for domestic abuse and alcohol-related crimes in my county exceeds the number of COVID cases, so apparently what we’re doing is working.

How many of those who were arrested died?

 

[cgrab]

At least 60'000 just based on current infection count. That's assuming no more spread (an invalid assumption of course).

Deaths trails infections by about 2 weeks.

The gray area is the 28'000 we have today.
The purple area is people already infected but hasn't resolved one way or the other yet.

View attachment 84774

The graph does not take into account the number of lives not lost due to the quarantine (auto/boating/outdoor accidents) the 25000 over/under is the net loss not the gross loss.

 

[MauleSkinner]

How many of those who were arrested died?

I don’t know, but I did have an acquaintance who apparently had a sudden, fatal attack of COVID symptoms very shortly after being hit by a car

 

[deonb]

The graph does not take into account the number of lives not lost due to the quarantine (auto/boating/outdoor accidents) the 25000 over/under is the net loss not the gross loss.

It also doesn't account for people not wanting to risk going to the hospital and dying at home from heart disease etc. It's probably a wash between the two since accidents are not a very common cause of death, compared to everything else.

 

[denverpilot]

It also doesn't account for people not wanting to risk going to the hospital and dying at home from heart disease etc. It's probably a wash between the two since accidents are not a very common cause of death, compared to everything else.

Wife works with an ER doc. He said he an colleagues honestly have no idea where all the heart attack and stroke patients went, but they have almost none right now.

 

[weilke]

I take the 'more' side. What do I win ?

 

[midwestpa24]

I can't validate it, but I have seen it reported that overall deaths in the country have decreased compared to the same time last year, even including COVID victims. I saw numbers along the lines of March 2019 - 60,000+ deaths, March 2020 - 44,000 deaths. It was attributed to the reduction in travel and accidents.