Oshkosh 2020

flyingron said:
I'm on the committee of another event that's scheduled for late October. We're not sure we're going to make that. Not only is the fact we may still be under restrictions at that point, we also fear that many people would opt like Steingar to forgo being cooped up with 600 other people in hotel conference rooms for five days or so.
Click to expand...
I can just about guarantee there will be no public events in person classes or seminars for my wife or myself the rest of this year. I would not be surprised if its year or more before we dine out again.
 
My thought is this... I need something to look forward to and my attitude is going to be optimistic. Eventually, the world will right itself and I will be right. A broken clock is right twice a day...; )
In all seriousness, the distancing works, it worked in Wuhan and it will work here. If OSH isn't in July, then it will be a bit later, but one day we will all be there celebrating the coolest air show on earth. And that is what we need to focus on as a country. Chins up.
 
The theme parks in Fla are already discussing the precautions they are going to put in place,along with social distancing,when they reopen.they are sounding like this will be sooner than later.
 
AGLyme said:
In all seriousness, the distancing works, it worked in Wuhan and it will work here.p.
Click to expand...

A number of academic papers suggest that actually distancing will likely not be sufficient and may even hurt things in the fall if SARS-Cov2 is at all seasonal. I know that is not what the talking heads say, but that is what the serious modeling says.

While the rate of exponential growth of confirmed cases has halved, starting around March 25, it remains unclear exactly what that is due to. In any case, that amounts to a 3 week delay in the peak to mid May if an exponential growth model holds.

Just saw this article today about how Dr. Burry is also now noting that this distancing recommendation may do more harm than good, both to people’s health and the economy - https://apple.news/AK6h2s7ISSJGExb62-4GIfg
 
The key would be to have real-time testing - say a swab test that can be done on a near immediate basis. Get that test (and be clear) the day or so before you leave for the show, and you would minimize the risk (assuming everyone did it). Mandate it for all attendees, and you have a safe show.

Sadly, I don't see that happening for a number of reasons.
 
There is also the new pin prick blood test which may be able to demonstrate immunity. One could have some sort of certificated or proven immune status required for attendees and workers. A bit Orwellian perhaps, but if done privately and voluntarily, then it would be up to individuals.
 
There was a discussion yesterday on my local sports radio program that’s relevant. The discussion about the college football season and sports in general. There are a couple things to consider: when will seasons start, and when will fans decide to return? Both are important.
 
If they do have it, and attendance will suffer because of it, I’ll buy some tickets and go. Was not planning to do it but I would love to attend. If this isn’t under control by then, the country will be ready to say f it and just get back to normal.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Pro
 
Can’t take credit for this — it was another member here offline which said...

“There’s nothing about that event that is compatible with the current situation.”

I think folks are pipe dreaming if they even think FAA can send the controllers, let alone the public backlash against such a large gathering.

Just my opinion. Won’t be up to EAA.
 
My employer just cancelled all in person events (happy hours, client events, trainings, etc) through September 1. I’m not sure if that was due to the virus or just to cut costs. Very depressing though if Oshkosh doesn’t happen in July.
 
I'm starting to wonder the long term implications.... even if things are 100% clear say next year for sun n fun, how many folks are going to always have a suspicious eye towards large gatherings, porta potties, and the like.... for years to come? ditto things like cruise ships....
 
Brad W said:
I'm starting to wonder the long term implications.... even if things are 100% clear say next year for sun n fun, how many folks are going to always have a suspicious eye towards large gatherings, porta potties, and the like.... for years to come? ditto things like cruise ships....
Click to expand...
I can see the older population, the ones most at risk, avoiding large crowds for a while or until there is a vaccine. Unfortunately for aviation gatherings, way too many pilots are in that age group.
 
As much as we are hoping that this will all be over in a few weeks and we carry on with life as before, in reality organizations and individuals will have to think about doing things quite differently for quite a while. How much an organization is able to reinvent themselves may determine whether they survive this time or not. Sun 'n Fun and AirVenture probably have more options in that regard - think back to the small, humble beginnings of these events - than Disneyworld or the NFL.
 
Brad W said:
I'm starting to wonder the long term implications.... even if things are 100% clear say next year for sun n fun, how many folks are going to always have a suspicious eye towards large gatherings, porta potties, and the like.... for years to come? ditto things like cruise ships....
Click to expand...

Wife and I cruise and she is a member on some cruise facebook pages. It might make the cruise curious, first timer hesitant, but the people who are cruisers won't bat an eye to get back on a ship as soon as they can. There are those that are booking future cruises right now.
 
The real worry to me is if thew warm wx really does this virus in. The social distancing and everything else could get mighty old by fall. Thanksgiving rolls around and everyone wants to see their loved ones. And Christmas. In the mean time the wx has cooled and the virus makes a comeback. A big comeback.

It's what happened in 1918 exactly. Spanish flu killed more people than WWI. And we're talking about a bug that's potentially worse.

I love Oshkosh, but I love breathing better, and I love Mrs. Steingar better still. I'm staying home. Won't stop flying, but I'm not going to any giant gatherings of any kind any time soon.
 
There's also just the simple (very complex) logistics of Airventure - the vendors and everyone else that has to make decisions months in advance in order to make it work.

I've been there once, when does the NOTAM normally come out? Doesn't it usually get published early May?
 
steingar said:
The real worry to me is if thew warm wx really does this virus in. The social distancing and everything else could get mighty old by fall. Thanksgiving rolls around and everyone wants to see their loved ones. And Christmas. In the mean time the wx has cooled and the virus makes a comeback. A big comeback.

It's what happened in 1918 exactly. Spanish flu killed more people than WWI. And we're talking about a bug that's potentially worse.

I love Oshkosh, but I love breathing better, and I love Mrs. Steingar better still. I'm staying home. Won't stop flying, but I'm not going to any giant gatherings of any kind any time soon.
Click to expand...
Think of all the money and property we'll inherit when we kill off the old ones! Oh, wait. I'm one of those. Never mind.
I work from home, and rarely go out, so I'm just living my normal life. I see my friends once a month; that's the only bit I'm missing.
 
Matthew said:
I've been there once, when does the NOTAM normally come out? Doesn't it usually get published early May?
Click to expand...

Yes. Last year it was May 8th.

I expect we'll have a definitive answer in the first half of May... And I don't think the show will go on. :(

If restrictions are lifted beforehand, I'm gonna gather with some friends in Camp Scholler anyway, and make a few margaritas.
 
We will adapt. The Asian countries are back to work and crowding onto the metro in Shanghai.....while wearing masks. It will become common place around the world to be wearing masks in public until there is a vaccine
 
flyingcheesehead said:
Yes. Last year it was May 8th.

I expect we'll have a definitive answer in the first half of May... And I don't think the show will go on. :(

If restrictions are lifted beforehand, I'm gonna gather with some friends in Camp Scholler anyway, and make a few margaritas.
Click to expand...
Is there any camping or other camping facilities at OSH outside of Airventure?
 
Matthew said:
Is there any camping or other camping facilities at OSH outside of Airventure?
Click to expand...

Well, the site is used for quite a few other things. I think there's some sort of Boy Scout gathering there, and a CAP encampment, and other such things. Camp Scholler officially opens for the show a month before the show starts, when the show happens.

I'm not expecting anything to be there. We'll just pull up to the bare spot of ground where our usual campsite is at 42nd and Lindbergh, set up some chairs, and go from there.

Or, if EAA somehow prevents that, we'll adjourn to my back yard about an hour south of OSH.
 
The major point of the half-assed social distancing that we were currently under was to slow the onslaught so that the healthcare system didn't get overwhelmed. We failed to put forth a COHESIVE full up plan that would (like in New Zealand) allow the virus to be isolated and die out. So yes, you can expect this to trail on for a long time and unless something magic happens either with regard to treatment or a vaccine (testing is by and large a pointless exercise for the Populus at large), the thing is likely to resurge. If the pessimistic view that you can get it a second time even if you've had it is true, we're in for a real mess.
 
flyingron said:
The major point of the half-assed social distancing that we were currently under was to slow the onslaught so that the healthcare system didn't get overwhelmed.
Click to expand...
I don't really want to single you out, but this keeps getting repeated so its probably worth mentioning that the vast majority of people at this point clearly understand the whole not overwhelming the healthcare system concept. We all well understand it. Mentioning it in a post is akin to saying you've got to understand chairs are devices that are designed for people to sit on.
 
Matthew said:
avoiding large crowds for a while or until there is a vaccine
Click to expand...
I was actually thinking a bit beyond this particular virus even....

Martin Pauly said:
How much an organization is able to reinvent themselves may determine whether they survive this time or not.
Click to expand...
great point Martin...

I've always been a bit of a germaphobe, but this thing will probably change ho I look at things for quite some time beyond this virus if I survive it.
 
Juliet Hotel said:
I don't really want to single you out, but this keeps getting repeated so its probably worth mentioning that the vast majority of people at this point clearly understand the whole not overwhelming the healthcare system concept. We all well understand it. Mentioning it in a post is akin to saying you've got to understand chairs are devices that are designed for people to sit on.
Click to expand...

Wish that were true. I still know at least two people who don’t get the math. They’re in the “lost cause” category now, but they really don’t get it.
 
denverpilot said:
Wish that were true. I still know at least two people who don’t get the math. They’re in the “lost cause” category now, but they really don’t get it.
Click to expand...
I think the longer it goes on more people really are forgetting the "flatten the curve" idea and now have moved on to the "stop the spread" mode.
 
denverpilot said:
Wish that were true. I still know at least two people who don’t get the math. They’re in the “lost cause” category now, but they really don’t get it.
Click to expand...
Well in that case allow me to revise my comment. People now fall into one of only two categories. Those who know about and understand the concept of taking action in order to prevent our healthcare system from becoming overwhelmed, and those who do not and never will. In either case, explaining it yet again is just wasting bandwidth at this point.
 
We all need something to look forward to...we will have to wait and see. I don't really expect to see Airventure go on as planned, but my crystal ball is in the shop for repairs. I enjoy the flight to and from large events as much as I do the show itself...several airplanes going up in a group...making funny comments air to air....going out to eat and telling the waitress it is someones birthday and embarrassing them...all in good fun. I suppose we can bring a grill to the airport and have a local cookout if all else fails.
 
Matthew said:
There's also just the simple (very complex) logistics of Airventure - the vendors and everyone else that has to make decisions months in advance in order to make it work. [...]
Click to expand...

Some mom & pop vendors might take the chances but I don't see any of the bigger companies accepting the risk of being sued by their associates if some of them contract COVID-19 at the show. Also, exhibiting at the show is pretty expensive, particularly if the costs for logistics and exhibits are also factored in. Even if the show takes place, it will most likely have much less visitors, what makes the return on investment for the vendors even more questionable.

I'm sure the EAA will have the same concerns for themselves - it would be an absolute disaster if dozens if not hundreds of people would sue the EAA because they didn't keep them save.
Simply making visitors and exhibitors wear masks will certainly not do the trick, particularly not if everybody is only wearing these basic masks with huge gaps all around their edges.

I'm sure that an army of lawyer is already smelling blood!

I think the EAA would be very ill advised if they would have an AirVenture 2020.
 
@German guy nailed it. That's why I don't see OSH happening this year. The EAA can decide to move forward all they want. But some of the big vendors are going to bail just to be on the safe side and because they will fear low turnout and therefore no ROI. Once a couple vendors pull out, more vendors will become concerned about their own ROI and will pull out. Like the virus itself, when the list of vendors who have cancelled hits double digits, the cancellations will escalate quickly. At that point EAA won't have much choice in the matter. A show with no vendors and therefore a fraction of their normal attendees won't be much of a show.
 
all the talk of vendors displaying...makes me think how in that regard it could be a good thing in one way....

much like I'm seeing families around here turning inward. Spending time together, going for family walks or bike rides around the neighborhood, etc... Parents are working form home as are the kids, so we are even if only just a little bit more aware and involved in their education. Staying home more, out and about less....

I think someone pointed this out here earlier, but in a similar way maybe a dial back of airventure could help it to reground itself to its roots of enthusiasts getting together.
Not saying that will or even should happen, but just a thought....
 
Wouldn’t lawyers have to prove that EAA or a vendor is the direct cause of a disease? How many people got sued after a cold or flu outbreak at a large event? How many employers get sued because their employee catches the flu at work? Wouldn’t the employee have to be able to prove they didn’t get it somewhere else? I think concerns about legal action are a bit far fetched. PR risks and low attendance risks are definitely something to consider, but I’m not sure tort liability should be that high on the list.
 
Juliet Hotel said:
@German guy nailed it. That's why I don't see OSH happening this year. The EAA can decide to move forward all they want. But some of the big vendors are going to bail just to be on the safe side and because they will fear low turnout and therefore no ROI. Once a couple vendors pull out, more vendors will become concerned about their own ROI and will pull out. Like the virus itself, when the list of vendors who have cancelled hits double digits, the cancellations will escalate quickly. At that point EAA won't have much choice in the matter. A show with no vendors and therefore a fraction of their normal attendees won't be much of a show.
Click to expand...

You carry on as though EAA is some amateur organization with their wishful heads in the clouds.
Pulling off Oshkosh in a normal year takes a massive amount of leadership and organization.
I seriously doubt EAA is just "sitting around" waiting for vendors to make a decision.
I would expect the communications and coordination between EAA headquarters, sponsors and major vendors is pretty intense, as everyone is trying to plan ahead as best they can in what is probably the most uncertain environment since EAA was founded.
When a decision is made it won't be a surprise to any of them.
 
aggie06 said:
Wouldn’t lawyers have to prove that EAA or a vendor is the direct cause of a disease? How many people got sued after a cold or flu outbreak at a large event? How many employers get sued because their employee catches the flu at work? Wouldn’t the employee have to be able to prove they didn’t get it somewhere else? I think concerns about legal action are a bit far fetched. PR risks and low attendance risks are definitely something to consider, but I’m not sure tort liability should be that high on the list.
Click to expand...

Not at all. Imagine the following:

You're a healthy dude working for a company exhibiting at AirVenture. Even though all the shelter in place orders have been lifted, the CDC however still recommends social distancing and to avoid mass events. The population is also far from reaching herd immunity.
Even though you feel uncomfortable about being trapped in a room with thousands of people stopping by, you don't want to be the party pooper and 'volunteer' to man the booth at Airventure because your boss tells you that there is nothing to worry about.

Now, at the end of the the show you as well as several of your co-workers and other exhibitors are getting sick. Some end up in ICU, one guy even dies. Numerous visitors also get sick, their infections can be traced back to AirVenture.

Particularly since we are in the lawsuit-happy USA, what of the following do you thing will be the most likely to happen:

( ) Nothing, everybody happily accepts this to be a normal risk of life.
( ) Associates will sue their employers for exposing them to an elevated risk environment. Associates, companies and visitor will sue the EAA for hosting a mass event while failing to keep them safe.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top