OSH 2020 - don't see it happening

Juliet Hotel said:
Unless everyone in the office has been tested, best you can say is no other symptoms happened.
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I can agree with that, but we are a group of 15 people and I'm the youngest at 42 and our oldest is upper 60's. It so contagious that one of us would have shown symptoms...no? Not to mention we are a training environment and interact with many many people daily. I just looked back to when we were notified...March 23 so a month now.

Our local Lowes had a case and the person kept coming(sick, and the manager knew..supposedly) to work and interacted with a good bit of patrons and coworkers. They finally got tested and yep positive. Lowes shut down for 24 hours and cleaned. No other cases as of yet...well nobody showing symptoms that the person worked with. That was all over our local news.
 
simtech said:
I can agree with that, but we are a group of 15 people and I'm the youngest at 42 and our oldest is upper 60's. It so contagious that one of us would have shown symptoms...no?
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Impossible to know. Age is a comorbidity for developing serious illness among those who display symptoms. To my knowledge we still have no idea what factors are involved in determining who will show symptoms vs who will not.
 
simtech said:
I can agree with that, but we are a group of 15 people and I'm the youngest at 42 and our oldest is upper 60's. It so contagious that one of us would have shown symptoms...no? Not to mention we are a training environment and interact with many many people daily. I just looked back to when we were notified...March 23 so a month now.

Our local Lowes had a case and the person kept coming(sick, and the manager knew..supposedly) to work and interacted with a good bit of patrons and coworkers. They finally got tested and yep positive. Lowes shut down for 24 hours and cleaned. No other cases as of yet...well nobody showing symptoms that the person worked with. That was all over our local news.
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Don’t assume the guy that got sick was the first original infection. Maybe out of those 15 folks, one of them started as an asymptotic carrier, infected 7-8 others, only one of which got symptomatic. Total guess.
 
Nope, all you need to do is be in close proximity of someone who has it. You being in "perfect health" is not going to stave off infection. In fact, recent analysis doesn't show that this even improves your chances of survival if you get it.
 
It's an old word... from the Latin meaning "crown." And as Larry says, not an uncommon eastern European surname, though why his ancestors adopted it isn't uniformly clear. It might ascribe some connection to royalty, but "crowns" and "coronas" were also used as a word for money, historically. It's the same origin as Krone, Kron, Korda, Korhonen, etc...
 
kyleb said:
Herd immunity may be a thing by then.
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Doubtful. Herd immunity requires ~70% of people to become infected and recover. Figure we have maybe 54 weeks from today to make the decision for OSH 2021 to happen. We're at 10-15% now, and the health care system isn't overwhelmed yet... But we're going to need to contain the growth to not much more than today's for that to remain the case. It looks like we're at maybe 10% today, so we need to infect 60% of the population, or 192 million people, in the next year. That's little over 1/2 million new cases per day, which is over 10 times our current rate.

Also, we're not completely sure yet that getting it makes you immune from getting it again.
 
For the record, that anecdote about Columbus AFB is not representative of the protocols currently being followed at Laughlin and Randolph. Ours are a lot less nonchalant about reporting and self-isolation, and of course that follows considering we still have active cases in Val Verde and Bexar Counties respectively. I don't interact with the sim backshops but the station cleaning protocols per box time are generally pretty disciplined.
 
Doubtful. Herd immunity requires ~70% of people to become infected and recover.
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Latest theories are that just because you had COVID doesn't mean you've developed sufficient antibodies to serve as long term immunity. Some people who recovered from COVID appear to have gotten it again.
 
flyingron said:
Latest theories are that just because you had COVID doesn't mean you've developed sufficient antibodies to serve as long term immunity. Some people who recovered from COVID appear to have gotten it again.
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I am very dubious of this. How many people have:
  1. Had a confirmed case of COVID19. Given the dearth of testing reagents that could narrow the pool right there.
  2. Recovered to the point where there was no active virus in their bloodstream.
  3. Been reinfected with the same illness.
COVID19 is a nasty bug, to be certain. But it's still a virus. Once the immune system knocks out a virus memory B cells are maintained that can quickly make antibodies against it. That's the basis of vaccination. COVID19 can do some pretty amazing things, but I have strong doubts it can beat the mammalian immune system. I'd be quicker to believe they got infected with a cold or the flu but still had some inactive viral RNA floating around their system. PCR is very, very sensitive.
 
steingar said:
I am very dubious of this. How many people have:
  1. Had a confirmed case of COVID19. Given the dearth of testing reagents that could narrow the pool right there.
  2. Recovered to the point where there was no active virus in their bloodstream.
  3. Been reinfected with the same illness.
COVID19 is a nasty bug, to be certain. But it's still a virus. Once the immune system knocks out a virus memory B cells are maintained that can quickly make antibodies against it. That's the basis of vaccination. COVID19 can do some pretty amazing things, but I have strong doubts it can beat the mammalian immune system. I'd be quicker to believe they got infected with a cold or the flu but still had some inactive viral RNA floating around their system. PCR is very, very sensitive.
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I’m not sure what to believe at this point. Mostly because it’s “early”, which I would have thought by now we’d be certain. And partly because of politics, which I’m not sure this is involved in this news.

https://news.un.org/en/story/2020/04/1062612
 
flyingron said:
It's an old word... from the Latin meaning "crown." And as Larry says, not an uncommon eastern European surname, though why his ancestors adopted it isn't uniformly clear. It might ascribe some connection to royalty, but "crowns" and "coronas" were also used as a word for money, historically. It's the same origin as Krone, Kron, Korda, Korhonen, etc...
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Nope no royalty in the family tree that I'm aware of. I've done some family history research and found very humble roots in various small towns in Central Poland and northern Hungary, so no family estates to claim!
 
steingar said:
COVID19 is a nasty bug, to be certain. But it's still a virus.
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It's possible it's bad testing (either before or after), but the other theory is that you can recover with a low antibody load which allows you to get it again. It's not unheard of for viruses.
 
gacoon said:
I cant imagine it happening. Vendor exhibits would be a pita
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There are all sorts of issues. Oshkosh runs on volunteers. From having a few random discussions with the rather large volunteer group I work with, we're expecting a lot of no shows even if they do hold it. We're not sure how we would enforce social distancing (we pretty much handle all crowd control from the speaker platform south) during the airshows. We even point out our volunteer camping area is packed a little closer than 6 feet.
 
As we all know, EAA has made the choice for us all. A wise choice, but with few practical options available not to do so. On a personal note my furlough has been extended to early June, with no certainty that this new date will not be pushed further back. Assuming that my experiences are typical of others, loss of income is really going to hit GA, I don't see any light at the end of this tunnel at this time.
 
flyingron said:
Nope, all you need to do is be in close proximity of someone who has it. You being in "perfect health" is not going to stave off infection. In fact, recent analysis doesn't show that this even improves your chances of survival if you get it.
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Datadriver said:
75% of NYC deaths as of April 14 had pre-existing conditions. Seems like good health helped there...

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/
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The Pennsylvania data shows only 11% with no underlying conditions. That data also shows 12% with 4 underlying conditions.



Wayne
 
I had a dream last night that I was at OSH with my two boys and we had a tornado warning in the middle of the night. I'm calling it a good thing that OSH was cancelled. :)
 
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