OPEN THE SCHOOLS?

[Everskyward]

You know that's not what he meant by his reply just as much as I do. Glad you know the guy personally and now it's becoming clearer why you've all decided to gang up on me. Again, shows a lot about what this site is actually about. If I was not stuck inside with little to do I would have given up on this thread and this nonsense a long time ago.

Please step away from the keyboard until your emotional level has gone down. This goes for others too.

 

[jspilot]

Please step away from the keyboard until your emotional level has gone down. This goes for others too.

No worries here. We are in emotionally challenging times and my passion I believe to be well directed. I've made my point-- not much more for me to add.

 

[Salty]

You know that's not what he meant by his reply just as much as I do. Glad you know the guy personally and now it's becoming clearer why you've all decided to gang up on me. Again, shows a lot about what this site is actually about. If I was not stuck inside with little to do I would have given up on this thread and this nonsense a long time ago.

Yeah, I flew about 200 miles. Closest I got to anybody was about 30 feet. I did touch the gas pump and the kiosk though, so we’re all going to die. Sorry, the demise of the human race is all on me. My bad.

 

[azure]

This^^^. On several levels. 1st, pure math as in 80% of population are asymptomatic or mild symptoms, i.e., require no advance medical treatment. 2nd, if those who are susceptible decide to break self-isolation then it falls onto them for that decision. And 3rd, it would advance the herd-immunity concept dramatically. This option has been discussed at the national level per reports. In my opinion, it's a much better approach to have the 80% support and aid the 20% than the 20% locking up the 80%.

Well, you snipped my post in such a way as to distort what I was saying. So I can't agree entirely with this.

Before the snip, I was talking about isolating those who carry the virus. That's the best solution, but you have to know who they are first, and that's where we dropped the ball. After the snip, I said we can RECOMMEND that the susceptible people self-isolate and let everyone else go back to work. First, of course, you have to know whether you are susceptible or not. But what if nearly everyone who was not dx'd with the disease is susceptible, i.e. if the proportion of asymptomatic but infected people is much lower than has been speculated? Maybe not likely, but we don't know. If it is, then this strategy doesn't really improve the situation much. And if people disregarded the recommendation, it WOULD advance us toward herd immunity... but also precipitate the worst-case scenario for the health system.

We don't know enough yet about this virus and the current state of herd immunity to lower the restrictions to the level of a "recommendation". There is a strategy forming, though, that allows for a gradual return to normalcy once certain conditions are met. It's been formulated by a team at the American Enterprise Institute led by the current administration's former FDA director, Scott Gottlieb. It was posted on Brian's board this morning. I've only skimmed it so far, but it seems like a reasonable start.

 

[GrummanBear]

Yeah, I flew about 200 miles. Closest I got to anybody was about 30 feet. I did touch the gas pump and the kiosk though, so we’re all going to die. Sorry, the demise of the human race is all on me. My bad.

You disgust me. I’m going flying tonight and might have to use the same pump. Nevermind, different state.

Stay safe, happy flying.

 

[Bell206]

There is a strategy forming,

FYI: snip of your words not meant to distort, only save typing.

The discussions on the 80/20 strategies I've read are pointing not to a pre-screening for anti-bodies, etc. but based on location and general health of the "herd." It's more based on people self-isolating who know or believe they are one of the 20% at risk. It's an offshoot of the current stay-at-home orders which is not working as we see with road blocks in FL, NG door to door searches in RI, and guns out in Maine. It's the current 80/20 figures that are being broadcast, even today by Cuomo, that are undermining the stay-at-home orders. Some have stated if it was the reverse, 80% get sick and die then more people would in fact stay home. So the push in some circles is to release the 80% and protect the 20%.

 

[jspilot]

Yeah, I flew about 200 miles. Closest I got to anybody was about 30 feet. I did touch the gas pump and the kiosk though, so we’re all going to die. Sorry, the demise of the human race is all on me. My bad.

Cool- glad you did not actually interact with anyone— in more ways than one. Sorry that was just too easy.

 

[azure]

FYI: snip of your words not meant to distort, only save typing.

The discussions on the 80/20 strategies I've read are pointing not to a pre-screening for anti-bodies, etc. but based on location and general health of the "herd." It's more based on people self-isolating who know or believe they are one of the 20% at risk. It's an offshoot of the current stay-at-home orders which is not working as we see with road blocks in FL, NG door to door searches in RI, and guns out in Maine. It's the current 80/20 figures that are being broadcast, even today by Cuomo, that are undermining the stay-at-home orders. Some have stated if it was the reverse, 80% get sick and die then more people would in fact stay home. So the push in some circles is to release the 80% and protect the 20%.

The problem is that we do not really know who is at risk and who isn't. The criteria that are being quoted are over 60, and with underlying health conditions puts you at risk. But there have many a number of recent cases of people under 60, even under 50, with no known underlying health problems, who have fallen seriously ill with the virus, to the point of needing to go on ventilators. And a few older folks have tested positive, yet seem to be doing okay (e.g. Tom Hanks).

I maintain that antibody testing is the only reliable way to gauge susceptibility in people who are not known to have been infected.

 

[GrummanBear]

The problem is that we do not really know who is at risk and who isn't. The criteria that are being quoted are over 60, and with underlying health conditions puts you at risk. But there have many a number of recent cases of people under 60, even under 50, with no known underlying health problems, who have fallen seriously ill with the virus, to the point of needing to go on ventilators. And a few older folks have tested positive, yet seem to be doing okay (e.g. Tom Hanks).

I maintain that antibody testing is the only reliable way to gauge susceptibility in people who are not known to have been infected.

Not a disagreement, but sharing this as more of a reflection of what my wife and the providers she is networking with in NY and WA are seeing.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.thenewsstar.com/amp/2928137001

 

[jspilot]

Not a disagreement, but sharing this as more of a reflection of what my wife and the providers she is networking with in NY and WA are seeing.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.thenewsstar.com/amp/2928137001

This articles conclusion has been widely reported all over every major media outlet. Of course people with underlying medical conditions are more at risk— that’s what every single person in the know has been reporting and exactly why the “stop the spread” campaign is underway. It’s not to save the people who have relatively healthy bodies— it’s to help those most at risk.

 

[Bell206]

The problem is that we do not really know who is at risk and who isn't.

with no known underlying health problems, who have fallen seriously ill with the virus,

FYI: The figures being used in the 80/20 discussions include those who get sick requiring hospitalization in the 20% category. 15% of that 20% are people of various ages and health. The 80% is all inclusive of everyone who does not require any hospitalization or advanced care. The d-group consensus is that if a person even thinks they are a risk, i.e., obese, etc. then stay home. If a person thinks they are not at risk then they can rejoin society. For those from the 80% group that will aid and interact with at-risk 20%, only this group (est. to be around 10-15% of the group) will be screened/tested for SARS. This allows a concentration of available test kits/resources to the at-risk 20% plus those who will aid/support them (10-15%). The discussions further go on that once widespread testing becomes available then they test the remaining 65% of the population. This version is being looked at due to ongoing "enforcement" issues of the current systems.

 

[GrummanBear]

This articles conclusion has been widely reported all over every major media outlet. Of course people with underlying medical conditions are more at risk— that’s what every single person in the know has been reporting and exactly why the “stop the spread” campaign is underway. It’s not to save the people who have relatively healthy bodies— it’s to help those most at risk.

“I've made my point-- not much more for me to add.“

 

[azure]

FYI: The figures being used in the 80/20 discussions include those who get sick requiring hospitalization in the 20% category. 15% of that 20% are people of various ages and health. The 80% is all inclusive of everyone who does not require any hospitalization or advanced care. The d-group consensus is that if a person even thinks they are a risk, i.e., obese, etc. then stay home. If a person thinks they are not at risk then they can rejoin society. For those from the 80% group that will aid and interact with at-risk 20%, only this group (est. to be around 10-15% of the group) will be screened/tested for SARS. This allows a concentration of available test kits/resources to the at-risk 20% plus those who will aid/support them (10-15%). The discussions further go on that once widespread testing becomes available then they test the remaining 65% of the population. This version is being looked at due to ongoing "enforcement" issues of the current systems.

15% of the 20% would be 3% of the population. And what does "various ages and health" mean?

I'm sorry, but I am totally unable to figure out what the point of this information is. There is no way of knowing who is at risk and who is not without testing for antibodies. The 20% who will require hospitalization is an unknown - you can't confidently predict for an individual whether they will end up in this category based on age or health. Anyone who contracts the virus can end up on a ventilator regardless of their "risk" status. Or they can be in the asymptomatic group and pass it on to someone else who mistakenly believes they are "low risk", who then ends up on a ventilator. You just don't know.

 

[Doc Holliday]

There is no way of knowing who is at risk and who is not without testing for antibodies. The 20% who will require hospitalization is an unknown - you can't confidently predict for an individual whether they will end up in this category based on age or health. Anyone who contracts the virus can end up on a ventilator regardless of their "risk" status. Or they can be in the asymptomatic group and pass it on to someone else who mistakenly believes they are "low risk", who then ends up on a ventilator. You just don't know.

Couldn't this be said about the flu? Also, during H1N1 (2009) weren't we faced with the exact same problem?

 

[Bell206]

And what does "various ages and health" mean?

1 year of age to 55 which is the CDC break in SARS infection rates. Any health condition outside the norm: obesity, heart issues, etc.

The 20% who will require hospitalization is an unknown - you can't confidently predict for an individual whether they will end up in this category based on age or health.

Yet the WHO and CDC confidently do this with every briefing. Do they have names and addresses? No. But they have demographics of who it affects. Is it perfect? No. But since no one, to include any governor, wants a mandatory, enforced quarantine, what other options do you suggest? Current data shows over 50% of the population is not following local/regional stay-at-home orders. Why? Because the general public figures since the WHO and CDC state daily that 80% of the population will be asymptomatic or have mild symptoms...all of which do not require advanced care...why should they comply? So why not use that mind set to an advantage and work toward protecting those who the WHO and CDC state will be develop severe or critical symptoms. You want a perfect solution in an imperfect situation. So short of arresting/shooting those individuals who venture out in violation to all the stay-at-home orders, what is your solution to the current problem?

Anyone who contracts the virus can end up on a ventilator regardless of their "risk" status.

Statistically, it's not very high, at least from the WHO/CDC reports being circulated. While media reports may show certain people in "perfect" health that have died, the facts behind it lean more toward undiagnosed issues that never are included in the headline. Can SARS still kill a perfectly healthy individual? Sure. Show one disease/illness that does not. However, it's been stated, if this SARS could seriously affect "anybody" (i.e, require a ventilator), as you state, then the death toll would have already been in the millions and not the thousands.

 

[azure]

Couldn't this be said about the flu? Also, during H1N1 (2009) weren't we faced with the exact same problem?

The three big differences for influenza are 1) we have vaccines against most strains that are at least somewhat effective; 2) we have effective antivirals against most strains; 3) the case fatality rate for nearly all strains is at least an order of magnitude lower than for SARS-CoV-2. This was also true of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic, except that it took several months for a vaccine to be developed. But the CFR was on the order of 0.03%, two orders of magnitude lower than SARS-CoV-2.

Sure, you can say the same thing about any infection. Whether it's a significant argument depends on the magnitude of the threat.

 

[azure]

1 year of age to 55 which is the CDC break in SARS infection rates. Any health condition outside the norm: obesity, heart issues, etc.

Yet the WHO and CDC confidently do this with every briefing. Do they have names and addresses? No. But they have demographics of who it affects. Is it perfect? No. But since no one, to include any governor, wants a mandatory, enforced quarantine, what other options do you suggest? Current data shows over 50% of the population is not following local/regional stay-at-home orders. Why? Because the general public figures since the WHO and CDC state daily that 80% of the population will be asymptomatic or have mild symptoms...all of which do not require advanced care...why should they comply? So why not use that mind set to an advantage and work toward protecting those who the WHO and CDC state will be develop severe or critical symptoms. You want a perfect solution in an imperfect situation. So short of arresting/shooting those individuals who venture out in violation to all the stay-at-home orders, what is your solution to the current problem?

Because of where we are now, there is no easy solution that I know of. I think we are doing the best we can under the circumstances, having failed to make widespread testing availability a priority early on. I've said before that I think we should prioritize: widespread testing availability for the virus; fast tracking development of a vaccine and an effective antiviral; widespread availability of antibody testing. Not necessarily in that order.

Statistically, it's not very high, at least from the WHO/CDC reports being circulated. While media reports may show certain people in "perfect" health that have died, the facts behind it lean more toward undiagnosed issues that never are included in the headline. Can SARS still kill a perfectly healthy individual? Sure. Show one disease/illness that does not. However, it's been stated, if this SARS could seriously affect "anybody" (i.e, require a ventilator), as you state, then the death toll would have already been in the millions and not the thousands.

The degree of danger is sort of a product of the chances of getting a severe case times the consequences of that happening. You have here a relatively low chance of someone in good health getting a severe case, but if they do, the result can be disastrous. It's sort of like flying over open water during the winter. I think by any measure, this is a more dangerous pathogen than any of the other common viruses circulating in the US in modern times.

I don't follow your reasoning in your last sentence. The fact that anybody can have a severe case doesn't necessarily mean that millions already would have.

 

[Doc Holliday]

The three big differences for influenza are 1) we have vaccines against most strains that are at least somewhat effective; 2) we have effective antivirals against most strains; 3) the case fatality rate for nearly all strains is at least an order of magnitude lower than for SARS-CoV-2. This was also true of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic, except that it took several months for a vaccine to be developed. But the CFR was on the order of 0.03%, two orders of magnitude lower than SARS-CoV-2.

Sure, you can say the same thing about any infection. Whether it's a significant argument depends on the magnitude of the threat.

So the magnitude of the 2018-2019 Influenza season included an estimated 35.5 million people getting sick with influenza, 16.5 million people going to a health care provider for their illness, 490,600 hospitalizations, and 34,200 deaths from influenza. That's some large numbers wouldn't you agree?

 

[azure]

So the magnitude of the 2018-2019 Influenza season included an estimated 35.5 million people getting sick with influenza, 16.5 million people going to a health care provider for their illness, 490,600 hospitalizations, and 34,200 deaths from influenza. That's some large numbers wouldn't you agree?

I certainly wouldn't argue that influenza isn't a serious disease! But your numbers come down to a 0.2% CFR... still an order of magnitude lower than what we think the CFR for COVID-19 is.

 

[flyingcheesehead]

What rubs me the wrong way is your belief that you know better than anyone else what is dangerous and what is not. You’ve decided where the line is all by yourself, and anyone that crosses it should be controlled to meet your standard. THAT is dangerous.

You have decided where the line is for yourself as well. The difference is, if @jspilot is wrong and we're locked down too much... Well, nobody dies. If you're wrong and we're not locked down enough... A LOT of people die.

Here in Wisconsin, we're doing pretty well. Been locked down for a week already, and we're now seeing 18% daily growth - Out of the 50 states, DC and Puerto Rico that's the 5th-lowest. It looks like our peak is currently projected to be in about the 3rd week of May.

Even so, here's the situation from a local nurse (emphasis mine):

"Picked up an extra shift last night to help because my friends needed it. Something like 55 hours worked this week and it’s just the beginning. My ICU is the COVID ICU. Every single bed is full... we move one out and there’s immediately another one there. These people are so, so, so sick. As we say in the ICU, every one of them is trying to die constantly... all night long. It’s not predictable either. Your patient seems to be just chugging along and then suddenly without warning their heart rate, blood pressure and oxygen saturation’s tank for literally no explainable reason. Problem is, you can’t go running into the room to fix it... you have to take your time to properly don your PPE equipment to protect yourself and others. The crashing patient has to wait. It’s a sometimes overwhelming feeling to know you’re just “lettting” them crash while you’re carefully and painstakingly getting on your protective gear, but it’s what we HAVE to do. With out our gear we are risking our safety, our families safety, our colleagues safety and our other patient’s safety. Most importantly, if we rush in and get sick, as our intensivist said before, every patient in that ICU will die with no one to care for them. Nurses are crying from feeling overwhelmed and everyone is walking around looking stressed, bewildered and concerned. Everyone has grooves on their noses and cheeks from masks- some already have skin breakdown on their faces and noses... and it’s just the beginning. Every shift we are swamped... it will never feel like you have enough help no matter how many nurses you have working because everyone is just so,so,so sick. It’s hard to not feel defeated and we haven’t even had any deaths yet. But our ICU is full already and these patients aren’t going anywhere anytime soon... we are hearing 10-14 days on a ventilator on average. Where will all the other patients that are going to get sick going to go? We have another ICU but they have all the other patients that would generally be in our ICUs... cardiac patients, traumas,strokes,etc. People don’t stop having other medical emergencies because of COVID. We have a 3rd ICU but not enough staff to man it... at least not with ICU trained nurses. We have critically ill positive COVID patients in all age groups young to old- some without any medical histories. He have patients that have tested negative but have all the hallmark symptoms and labs. It doesn’t discriminate and it’s not going away anytime soon... it’s picking up steam here in WI and it’s going to get much worse before it gets better. It already feels like it’s too much, but every single one of us keeps marching on, one foot in front of the other, extinguishing one fire before the next crops up. What other choice do we have? We won’t be defeated and we will give it our all with every single patient we care for, but it’s daunting. Updated a family member before I left this morning via phone and they were sobbing because they could not visit. It’s excruciating and I’ll carry that with me until I work my next shift. They already asked me to work again tonight because there’s just not enough nurses. I think I need a mental health break, but there will come a time where that won’t be an option. Say a prayer or whatever it is you do, because it’s getting very difficult on everyone- especially your front line healthcare workers. Thank you!"

Even if you take the stance of “The world is on fire” with this, one can do it without panicking. As Doc pointed out, if the plane is actually on fire, do you want the pilot screaming his head off and panicking or the one who calmly (but appropriately) reacts to get us on the ground? Panicking never does any good, but I’m seeing a lot of people panicking over the beer flu who are getting very upset if others aren’t panicking.

What's your definition of "panicking" in this context? Staying at home?

I hope you and everyone you've had contact with gets through the beer flu unscathed.

...they will fight this war, and these draconian measures simply delay the day that many Americans will go to meet them at the hospitals. No way around it.

And in doing so, give us the best chance of having the least preventable deaths. If these "draconian measures" are lifted, everyone's gonna be hitting the hospital at about the same time and it's going to be a lot more hellish and those health care workers we're all applauding right now are going to be faced with the additional pressure of deciding who gets to live (on a ventilator) and who has to die. Let's not do that.

Most Americans seem pretty willing to sacrifice: Autonomy, freedom of public worship, freedom of the press, freedom from the press, freedom to obtain arms, freedom from state controlling industry, freedom from mass compulsory social welfare...

I haven't sacrificed any autonomy. I can go out and do whatever I want, and I'm not likely to be punished for it. However, it puts my family and anyone I come into contact with at an increased risk of dying. Sorry, that takes a real @$$hole to not care whether you kill someone.

Nobody has sacrificed "freedom of public worship". You can go to the great outdoors (public) and worship all you want. Please just don't do it in groups of 1,000.

Freedom of the press? Are you kidding me? They're on every essential business list I've seen. Every last one. Freedom of the press is important and everyone knows that. I wish they'd do better fact-checking sometimes, but that's what you get when nearly all of your "free press" is free because it's driven by advertising, and in turn mindshare.

Freedom "from" the press? No such thing... Though I don't know why the power button suddenly stopped working on your TV.

I won't bother continuing here.

So to clarify, the governments response is to keep people seperated to stop the spread and this will somehow make the war go on longer??

Yes... If you "flatten the curve" it becomes much longer in the time axis. The area under the curve stays the same, the peak is much lower, but the time is much longer. It also means we have a lot less dead people.

 

[Ted]

What's your definition of "panicking" in this context? Staying at home?

I hope you and everyone you've had contact with gets through the beer flu unscathed.

One can follow the social distancing requirements without panicking. I do not believe that the person I was responding to was doing that.

Seeing as we've been staying at home and will be continuing to for the foreseeable future, there hasn't been contact. As I've said plenty of times already, this whole quarantine is benefitting me personally.

 

[455 Bravo Uniform]

So now “the guidelines” are extend out to April 30.

I’m a facts-guy, and distinguish when I have opinions.

Facts:
-330MM US population
-895k tested to date or roughly 0.03% of the population (likely those that needed testing)
-136k positive or roughly 15% if those tested
-2400 deceased or roughly 15% mortality of those tested

You guys figure out the math stretched out of 330MM, based on your OPINIONS beyond the numbers above.

We can argue all we want. No one really knows. If you do, I’m sure you can find a big bookie and lay dollars down. The guy with the most conviction or biggest balls will bet the most. The right guy will win.

This is all funny and sad at the same time. Grow up. All y’all.

I wish this and all COVID threads were banned.

 

[Salty]

You have decided where the line is for yourself as well. The difference is, if @jspilot is wrong and we're locked down too much... Well, nobody dies

Wrong. Huge unemployment causes death also. Possibly more than this disease will. If you don’t think crime is going to skyrocket, you’re ignoring human nature.

 

[flyingcheesehead]

Wrong. Huge unemployment causes death also. Possibly more than this disease will. If you don’t think crime is going to skyrocket, you’re ignoring human nature.

That depends on our reaction to the situation. I absolutely agree that we need to avoid having people get desperate to the point of violent crime. If we keep telling everyone to "pull themselves up by their bootstraps" rather than providing enough aid to keep them sheltered and fed, and keep as many businesses running as we can, that is not an effect of the disease, that is an effect of our society.

 

[GrummanBear]

You have decided where the line is for yourself as well. The difference is, if @jspilot is wrong and we're locked down too much... Well, nobody dies. If you're wrong and we're not locked down enough... A LOT of people die.

Here in Wisconsin, we're doing pretty well. Been locked down for a week already, and we're now seeing 18% daily growth - Out of the 50 states, DC and Puerto Rico that's the 5th-lowest. It looks like our peak is currently projected to be in about the 3rd week of May.

Even so, here's the situation from a local nurse (emphasis mine):

"Picked up an extra shift last night to help because my friends needed it. Something like 55 hours worked this week and it’s just the beginning. My ICU is the COVID ICU. Every single bed is full... we move one out and there’s immediately another one there. These people are so, so, so sick. As we say in the ICU, every one of them is trying to die constantly... all night long. It’s not predictable either. Your patient seems to be just chugging along and then suddenly without warning their heart rate, blood pressure and oxygen saturation’s tank for literally no explainable reason. Problem is, you can’t go running into the room to fix it... you have to take your time to properly don your PPE equipment to protect yourself and others. The crashing patient has to wait. It’s a sometimes overwhelming feeling to know you’re just “lettting” them crash while you’re carefully and painstakingly getting on your protective gear, but it’s what we HAVE to do. With out our gear we are risking our safety, our families safety, our colleagues safety and our other patient’s safety. Most importantly, if we rush in and get sick, as our intensivist said before, every patient in that ICU will die with no one to care for them. Nurses are crying from feeling overwhelmed and everyone is walking around looking stressed, bewildered and concerned. Everyone has grooves on their noses and cheeks from masks- some already have skin breakdown on their faces and noses... and it’s just the beginning. Every shift we are swamped... it will never feel like you have enough help no matter how many nurses you have working because everyone is just so,so,so sick. It’s hard to not feel defeated and we haven’t even had any deaths yet. But our ICU is full already and these patients aren’t going anywhere anytime soon... we are hearing 10-14 days on a ventilator on average. Where will all the other patients that are going to get sick going to go? We have another ICU but they have all the other patients that would generally be in our ICUs... cardiac patients, traumas,strokes,etc. People don’t stop having other medical emergencies because of COVID. We have a 3rd ICU but not enough staff to man it... at least not with ICU trained nurses. We have critically ill positive COVID patients in all age groups young to old- some without any medical histories. He have patients that have tested negative but have all the hallmark symptoms and labs. It doesn’t discriminate and it’s not going away anytime soon... it’s picking up steam here in WI and it’s going to get much worse before it gets better. It already feels like it’s too much, but every single one of us keeps marching on, one foot in front of the other, extinguishing one fire before the next crops up. What other choice do we have? We won’t be defeated and we will give it our all with every single patient we care for, but it’s daunting. Updated a family member before I left this morning via phone and they were sobbing because they could not visit. It’s excruciating and I’ll carry that with me until I work my next shift. They already asked me to work again tonight because there’s just not enough nurses. I think I need a mental health break, but there will come a time where that won’t be an option. Say a prayer or whatever it is you do, because it’s getting very difficult on everyone- especially your front line healthcare workers. Thank you!"



What's your definition of "panicking" in this context? Staying at home?

I hope you and everyone you've had contact with gets through the beer flu unscathed.



And in doing so, give us the best chance of having the least preventable deaths. If these "draconian measures" are lifted, everyone's gonna be hitting the hospital at about the same time and it's going to be a lot more hellish and those health care workers we're all applauding right now are going to be faced with the additional pressure of deciding who gets to live (on a ventilator) and who has to die. Let's not do that.



I haven't sacrificed any autonomy. I can go out and do whatever I want, and I'm not likely to be punished for it. However, it puts my family and anyone I come into contact with at an increased risk of dying. Sorry, that takes a real @$$hole to not care whether you kill someone.

Nobody has sacrificed "freedom of public worship". You can go to the great outdoors (public) and worship all you want. Please just don't do it in groups of 1,000.

Freedom of the press? Are you kidding me? They're on every essential business list I've seen. Every last one. Freedom of the press is important and everyone knows that. I wish they'd do better fact-checking sometimes, but that's what you get when nearly all of your "free press" is free because it's driven by advertising, and in turn mindshare.

Freedom "from" the press? No such thing... Though I don't know why the power button suddenly stopped working on your TV.

I won't bother continuing here.



Yes... If you "flatten the curve" it becomes much longer in the time axis. The area under the curve stays the same, the peak is much lower, but the time is much longer. It also means we have a lot less dead people.

I appreciate the sentiment driving where you’re coming from, but the only lives-possibly-that will be saved is in the projected context of heavy patient load requiring triage. My wife has been treating covid pts since January. Her biggest stressor has been the overload of people with minor symptoms coming to get tested out of fear. They are no longer testing anyone not presenting symptoms already requiring admittance. ...The projections of deaths from the feds are as low as 100,000 and as high as 1.7 million. Regardless of the states’ rules. Because it WILL RUN ITS COURSE THROUGH THE AMERICAN POPULATION. Maybe every season to come, like the cold and flu. ...I was just being facetious about freedom “from” the press. Freedom OF the press is being challenged by various governors, the president, Facebook... I care about others’ lives. I have been a volunteer firefighter and former cop. I have cleared houses on fire. I have placed myself between the barrel of a gun and a stranger. However, in this context, of a virus that spreads in a relentless manner, it is simply a matter of inevitability. I take it seriously. 100%. My wife has severe asthma, which could be a death sentence coupled with this virus and her almost daily exposure to it. And I love my wife more than anything in the world. This virus may kill me. It may do the same to you. Or hopefully not, truly. But we will both know...maybe sooner than later. The truth is, whether js is right or not, a lot of people are going to die. Regardless, I will live or die a free man.

 

[Palmpilot]

And I feel it's important to call out someone who is fear mongering and acting out in hysteria. Hysteria is wreckless and dangerous.

Remember?

Have a great weekend.

Different circumstances. I bet FDR wouldn't have said that about the 1918 flu pandemic.

 

[Palmpilot]

As Doc pointed out, if the plane is actually on fire, do you want the pilot screaming his head off and panicking or the one who calmly (but appropriately) reacts to get us on the ground?

At this point, I'm not clear on whether Doc recognizes that the fire exists.

 

[Palmpilot]

And in other media sources they aren't showing what you are claiming....

What are those sources? It would be helpful to see and/or read them for ourselves.

 

[jspilot]

You have decided where the line is for yourself as well. The difference is, if @jspilot is wrong and we're locked down too much... Well, nobody dies. If you're wrong and we're not locked down enough... A LOT of people die.

Here in Wisconsin, we're doing pretty well. Been locked down for a week already, and we're now seeing 18% daily growth - Out of the 50 states, DC and Puerto Rico that's the 5th-lowest. It looks like our peak is currently projected to be in about the 3rd week of May.

Even so, here's the situation from a local nurse (emphasis mine):

"Picked up an extra shift last night to help because my friends needed it. Something like 55 hours worked this week and it’s just the beginning. My ICU is the COVID ICU. Every single bed is full... we move one out and there’s immediately another one there. These people are so, so, so sick. As we say in the ICU, every one of them is trying to die constantly... all night long. It’s not predictable either. Your patient seems to be just chugging along and then suddenly without warning their heart rate, blood pressure and oxygen saturation’s tank for literally no explainable reason. Problem is, you can’t go running into the room to fix it... you have to take your time to properly don your PPE equipment to protect yourself and others. The crashing patient has to wait. It’s a sometimes overwhelming feeling to know you’re just “lettting” them crash while you’re carefully and painstakingly getting on your protective gear, but it’s what we HAVE to do. With out our gear we are risking our safety, our families safety, our colleagues safety and our other patient’s safety. Most importantly, if we rush in and get sick, as our intensivist said before, every patient in that ICU will die with no one to care for them. Nurses are crying from feeling overwhelmed and everyone is walking around looking stressed, bewildered and concerned. Everyone has grooves on their noses and cheeks from masks- some already have skin breakdown on their faces and noses... and it’s just the beginning. Every shift we are swamped... it will never feel like you have enough help no matter how many nurses you have working because everyone is just so,so,so sick. It’s hard to not feel defeated and we haven’t even had any deaths yet. But our ICU is full already and these patients aren’t going anywhere anytime soon... we are hearing 10-14 days on a ventilator on average. Where will all the other patients that are going to get sick going to go? We have another ICU but they have all the other patients that would generally be in our ICUs... cardiac patients, traumas,strokes,etc. People don’t stop having other medical emergencies because of COVID. We have a 3rd ICU but not enough staff to man it... at least not with ICU trained nurses. We have critically ill positive COVID patients in all age groups young to old- some without any medical histories. He have patients that have tested negative but have all the hallmark symptoms and labs. It doesn’t discriminate and it’s not going away anytime soon... it’s picking up steam here in WI and it’s going to get much worse before it gets better. It already feels like it’s too much, but every single one of us keeps marching on, one foot in front of the other, extinguishing one fire before the next crops up. What other choice do we have? We won’t be defeated and we will give it our all with every single patient we care for, but it’s daunting. Updated a family member before I left this morning via phone and they were sobbing because they could not visit. It’s excruciating and I’ll carry that with me until I work my next shift. They already asked me to work again tonight because there’s just not enough nurses. I think I need a mental health break, but there will come a time where that won’t be an option. Say a prayer or whatever it is you do, because it’s getting very difficult on everyone- especially your front line healthcare workers. Thank you!"



What's your definition of "panicking" in this context? Staying at home?

I hope you and everyone you've had contact with gets through the beer flu unscathed.



And in doing so, give us the best chance of having the least preventable deaths. If these "draconian measures" are lifted, everyone's gonna be hitting the hospital at about the same time and it's going to be a lot more hellish and those health care workers we're all applauding right now are going to be faced with the additional pressure of deciding who gets to live (on a ventilator) and who has to die. Let's not do that.



I haven't sacrificed any autonomy. I can go out and do whatever I want, and I'm not likely to be punished for it. However, it puts my family and anyone I come into contact with at an increased risk of dying. Sorry, that takes a real @$$hole to not care whether you kill someone.

Nobody has sacrificed "freedom of public worship". You can go to the great outdoors (public) and worship all you want. Please just don't do it in groups of 1,000.

Freedom of the press? Are you kidding me? They're on every essential business list I've seen. Every last one. Freedom of the press is important and everyone knows that. I wish they'd do better fact-checking sometimes, but that's what you get when nearly all of your "free press" is free because it's driven by advertising, and in turn mindshare.

Freedom "from" the press? No such thing... Though I don't know why the power button suddenly stopped working on your TV.

I won't bother continuing here.



Yes... If you "flatten the curve" it becomes much longer in the time axis. The area under the curve stays the same, the peak is much lower, but the time is much longer. It also means we have a lot less dead people.

Thank you for what you are doing- both here and in the real world!!

 

[jspilot]

Wrong. Huge unemployment causes death also. Possibly more than this disease will. If you don’t think crime is going to skyrocket, you’re ignoring human nature.

The government just handed out checks to people to stay home and is providing holdover loans so people keep their business open and paying employees. Stats in New York City show the crime rate during this pandemic is actually going way down. I’m concerned because in both cases( the impacts of the quarantine on stopping the spread and the impact on the economy,) you’ve taken the extreme position on how this impacts people and you are posting info here that is just wrong.

I’ll give you this though— of course if people feel the government is working against them they will take matters into their own hands but that’s probably not here right now and might never get to be reality.

Source showing crime rates have gone down so far-
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/coronavirus-new-york-city-crime/2020/03/26/6a408e94-6f9a-11ea-a3ec-70d7479d83f0_story.html?outputType=amp

 

[timwinters]

You all need to get laid and chill...

 

[tspear]

You all need to get laid and chill...

Lmao. So true...
But that violates social distancing....

Sent from my HD1907 using Tapatalk

 

[Fiveslide]

Source showing crime rates have gone down so far-
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/coronavirus-new-york-city-crime/2020/03/26/6a408e94-6f9a-11ea-a3ec-70d7479d83f0_story.html?outputType=amp

People haven't begun to get desperate, beyond buying too much toilet paper.

 

[Salty]

The government just handed out checks to people to stay home and is providing holdover loans so people keep their business open and paying employees. Stats in New York City show the crime rate during this pandemic is actually going way down. I’m concerned because in both cases( the impacts of the quarantine on stopping the spread and the impact on the economy,) you’ve taken the extreme position on how this impacts people and you are posting info here that is just wrong.

I’ll give you this though— of course if people feel the government is working against them they will take matters into their own hands but that’s probably not here right now and might never get to be reality.

Source showing crime rates have gone down so far-
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/coronavirus-new-york-city-crime/2020/03/26/6a408e94-6f9a-11ea-a3ec-70d7479d83f0_story.html?outputType=amp

I’m just plain dangerous dude, fear me. I’m one of those nuts that is unwilling to stick their head in the sand about the fact that when a lot of people have no work, are making no money, and have nothing to do, they are more likely to commit crimes. I should just listen to my masters like a good boy.
Holy crap, it’s a miracle I’m allowed to use the internet. They really should do something about people like me. I mean, with radical opinions like mine out there, nobody is safe.