There's a lot of speculation in this thread, even about things that are easy to Google... whatever. Maybe no one wants to see the actual answers, but just in case, here you go.
It's been a few years, what is going on with no lead aviation gas, thought it was down to one or two. With the new administration on fossil fuel they will probably do more than a nudge from the EPA, to force a transition to an unleaded fuel.
[First the disclaimer, I was an engineer at Chevron for 38 years. The last decade plus, I was involved in unleaded avgas development, until Chevron became so frustrated at the FAA's inability to understand science that they walked away (as did many of the majors). I've provided some small consulting to Swift and GAMI since then, but am not privy to their confidential stuff, and am not representing either of them in expressing my observations on the passing scene.
While the FAA's PAFI (Piston Aviation Fuels Initiative) is stuck, because ignoring science is a bad approach, there are four companies working the issue. In diminishing order of successful probability, IMHO: GAMI, Phillips, Swift, and Shell. Let's look at each approach.
GAMI has been working on this issue since 2010, and they do observe the science. Their formulation and additives have evolved impressively. The FAA has streamlined (!) the approval process, and GAMI is about ready to begin the final testing, which will hopefully lead to limited approval next year. That will probably result in fleet trials, maybe at a flight school or two, leading to a subsequent AML (approved model list) approval for all 100LL consuming aircraft.
Phillips came to this game late, announcing at Oshkosh last year and giving a technical seminar. They plan to replace the lead with Methylcyclopentadienyl Manganese Tricarbonyl (MMT). Manganese is much less toxic than lead, although when MMT was used in mogas, principally in Canada, there were issues with spark plug fouling. Phillips thinks they know how to devise a scavenger for the aviation application that will spare our expensive plugs... I'm guessing a molecule that was considered too expensive to be competitive in mogas, but avgas' higher margins make it feasible. Based on last year's update, they're likely a year or two away from fleet trials.
Swift seems to be struggling a bit, but the underlying science should be workable. I'm not sure they have the resources to get there. Swift is selling an interim 94UL fuel that they plan to discontinue when the 100UL is available. Folks are concerned that the supply logistics on that fuel seems sketchy, and what that might imply about Swift's viability. It may only be a learning curve experience for them. I wish them well.
Shell was the primary contender in the FAA's PAFI, and that effort was not successful, even after the FAA changed the rules to accommodate them, versus being left with no players after Swift withdrew from PAFI. It's important to note that it's NOT the Shell refining company that's pushing this effort. Instead, it's kind of a speculative effort by their Global Solutions company, which was spun off a few years back. They're hoping to develop a salable solution, rather than developing a solution for the Shell corporation. Don't know if they'll persevere, or succeed, with their heavy-alcohol approach. Paul]
>> It's not the politics that has held up this change, it's that pesky physics thing. It's got to support the high compression engines which burn most of the 100LL
[It's a combination of factors... The FAA has to follow the scientific method, but as a federal agency is an inherently political animal. So it tends to be a combination of confounding factors. Paul]
>> Maybe they need to reduce the compression in those engines. Not a big deal to change pistons. Otherwise unleaded mogas can offer a real solution.
[The certification burden is enormous for the fleet... each engine/airframe combination would have to be recertified, with new performance tables compiled from flight testing. This is a very expensive effort... and not one popular with aircraft owners, as it will result in reduced gross weight and performance. No one is excited about spending the money to make that happen.]
>> It's been 25 years since EPA ban on lead in fuel, just how long do you think Kerry and the new administration are going to wait.
[You overlook that the EPA and FAA duked this one out in Federal Court during the W administration (the White House didn't want to take the heat, I guess). The SCOTUS decided that the FAA is in charge of avgas regulation, so the EPA sits by waiting for the FAA to do their thing. The EPA could make a finding of endangerment, that might adversely motivate the current producers of leaded avgas. But, that didn't happen under 44, and I think Biden et al might be more interested in observing Supreme Court rulings in letter and spirit than running roughshod over them. Paul]
>> will this lower the price for avgas
[It's hard to say. The unleaded fuel will probably cost slightly more to make, say another 25 cents per gallon. On the optimistic side, since high-liability lead facilities aren't required, any number of additional blenders might choose to enter the marketplace, introducing more competition than currently exists. My guess is avgas prices will be roughly the same: at wholesale, avgas sells at 80 cents to $1/gallon more than premium unleaded. Paul]
>> Mogas isn't really a replacement. The vapor pressure is too high. A good chunk of the fleet would have to be retrofitted with in tank boost pumps to keep airframe fuel lines from forming vapors.
[There's a number of issues with mogas, although in the summertime mogas vapor pressure and avgas vapor pressure are nowadays about the same. Ethanol content and octane are the big show stoppers. Paul]
>> The mogas you buy at the Texaco station doesn't have the QC/QA that aviation fuels do.
[That's true.]
>> Probably would also need to go to electronic ignition with knock sensors and variable timing... more money.
[There are technical problems with knock sensors in aviation engines; lots of the aerodynamic noise looks like knock to conventional sensors, which is why GAMI tried developing fiberoptic based sensors. But none of that is certified and ready for prime time. And you're right about more money. Paul]
>> Unleaded avgas can be made to equal the current 100LL... I do not know what the holdup is.
[There were subtleties when one starts looking at the entire fleet, and then there's the certification process itself. The FAA has very limited experience in certifying fuels, and has made missteps. Paul]
>> Environmental benefit? The amount of aviation fuel used is microscopic
[Perhaps, but there's no safe lead exposure... from molecule one the best we understand it, lead exposure to children reduces IQ. Today, 1/3 of the lead entering the ecosystem is from our microscopic avgas use, so it needs to go away as a matter of social policy. There are studies implicating the one remaining tetra-ethyl lead plant in Liverpool, England in adverse impact on children down wind. How does one stand tall about that? Paul]
>> leaded gas supposedly helps lubricates the valves, but I think that can be addressed in other ways.
[Leaded gas is actually bad for the valves. There's scholarship and industry papers explaining that the valve problems we saw when lead was phased out of mogas came from the drop in octane, not the lack of lead; and the FAA has done at least one validating study on aircraft. Paul]
>> Ethanol contamination is a ridiculously easy check. Just add 10% water, shake, & see if the apparent water volume increases.
[So, what do you do if your airport tank is full of mogas-derived avgas that flunks that test? It's not pretty. It needs to be controlled for upstream, not remedied after the fact. Paul]
>> high temperature and high humidity reduce horsepower now, yet we accept it. Maybe just reduce the max gross weight?
[But the impact of temperature and humidity can be calculated in an FAA-approved manner, per the POH and the AIM. To reduce horsepower will require a similar certification effort with flight testing, and that's expensive. Paul]
>> Not interested in paying for expensive engine modifications to burn lower octane fuel and thereby get less horsepower, less gross weight, less climb performance, less speed?
[Don't forget, less range too, as fuel efficiency declines when you reduce compression ratio. The lower compression turbo Cirrus burn a gallon an hour more than the more efficient turbonormalized Cirrus with higher compression ratio. Paul]
>> Kwik Trip has 91, no ethanol.
[Don't forget the plethora of different octane scales. That Kwik Trip 91 is actually about 86 octane on the aviation octane scale... Paul]
>> Many of the QuikTrip locations have pure-87.
[OK, that's about 82 octane on the aviation octane scale. Paul]
>> You're overestimating the impact of a reduction in compression ratio. It would likely result in less than 5% decrease in peak HP.
[I don't think that's the issue as much as the certification and modification expense. Paul]
>> There are more turbo-charged engines in autos today than ever before, and most are running 87 to 91 octane
[They're accomplishing that today with scheduled direct injection which doesn't seem to work well with very large diameter pistons, say like in aviation engines. And the certification burden would be significant. Paul]