New Interesting Planes - Why do they come from Europe?

This is going to get interesting. It's the tax code. The Reagan tax cuts killed GA. Subsequent tax code changes have only made it worse. Why, because incentives to invest in capital goods and capital goods manufacturing went away. I've been thinking about this for 30 years, I've never said it publicly. Let's see if my hypothesis withstands scrutiny. Have at it.
 
I suppose liability exposure had nothing to do with it...
 
I suppose liability exposure had nothing to do with it...

Only because the lower production caused by the lower demand caused by the changes in the tax laws they had fewer airframes to spread the liability over. Why do I think this? Because if liability risks were the real concern they would have just bought up all the old airframes and scrapped them.

Before Reagan sales pitch to a guy in the 50% tax bracket: If you buy this airplane I'll lease it back from you. This will make the airplane a business. The owner (you through an S-corp) can take 10% Investment tax credit. You can also take accelerated depreciation. Let's see how this works with some real numbers. $100k airplane you put 20% down and finance the rest for 20 years. So that is $20K out of pocket and your monthly payment on the remaining $80K is about $700. The first year you get 30% back. 10% ITC and 20% depreciation. The ITC comes off your tax liability so that is a 100% return. The 20% only passes through 10% because you still need to pay some taxes. So you've netted $20K on the purchase and your down payment was financed by Uncle Sam. It's not a free airplane, but he ended up with no actual down payment and a monthly payment that will presumably be offset somewhat by the lease back revenue. Even my dad, a cautious Sc.D. engineer thought it made sense and bought an airplane before I taught him to fly.

After Reagan: You love to fly don't you. I've got nothing.
 
Core question no one is really asking. Why do you think there should be a thriving GA aircraft market with new aircraft? Put it another way, why should there be a thriving XXXXX market with new XXXX products? Want to have some fun? Insert anything into XXXX. Kelp, men's hats, etc.

If there is demand, in a free and open market there will be products produced to meet that demand and make profit from it.

Diamond, Cirrus are not what Cessna and Piper were in the 70's. To be honest, from a financial POV, it's a legitimate question to ask whether or not Cirrus was ever a good investment / should have been started vs what else you could have done with that capital.

I have a hunch that a person could make a decent living with GA aircraft if someone was clever enough to use modern materials and manufacturing to offer something that didn't require a few thousand hours and billions of rivets just like in 1945. But that is just a hunch. Or maybe rather more of a wish.
 
The Reagan tax cuts killed GA.
FYI: If that was the case why didn't congress pass a law to make GA tax friendly instead of passing GARA which reduced civil liability on products over 18 years old? Shortly there after the GA production lines reopened.

If there is demand, in a free and open market there will be products produced to meet that demand and make profit from it.
^^^^ This... which trumps even liability issues.
 
The liability issue is of importance but it is just one piece of the puzzle. GAMA would have one believe that it was the only piece. I think if liability really was the issue then demand would have returned closer to earlier levels. It had to be something structural in addition to liability. So my money is on tax policy (no pun intended).
 
Pretty simple. If people want to spend $X they have many choices. A new $X airplane apparently isn’t at the top of the list for most people so why would anybody spend the money to produce one?

Cheers
 
GARA - General Aviation Revitalization Act. While the tax credit loss has been discussed along with other economic issues like finance rates, large used market, etc. the main driver was product liability and the trickle down effect of increased insurance premiums and restrictions. This scenario has been hashed out in a number of reports and papers which became the foundation behind GARA. The same can be said for your comment above "if liability risks were the real concern they would have just bought up all the old airframes and scrapped them" as this is moot due to GARA since the majority of those old airframes are over 18 years old.
I think if liability really was the issue then demand would have returned closer to earlier levels.
Unfortunately, no. Even with GARA the price point had been set on the costs of GA. So if you can find a way to get that price point back to those earlier levels and adjust it for normal inflation you might have a chance to increase demand. However they tried with LSA and couldn't do it either. Having watched aviation, to include my personal business, get decimated by over the top liability processes and the subsequent trickle down effects, I can tell you with certainty no one mentioned the loss of their investment tax credit as the reason they got out of GA.
 
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It ain't taxes, it's income. In the 70s there was a middle class with disposable income. In the 90s the middle class existed by having both parents working. Today? You're lucky if you aren't classed as an independent contractor with limited/no benefits, low hours and poor pay.

The have nots are growing way faster than the haves, meaning less money that can towards elective hobbies such as GA.
 
Only because the lower production caused by the lower demand caused by the changes in the tax laws they had fewer airframes to spread the liability over. Why do I think this? Because if liability risks were the real concern they would have just bought up all the old airframes and scrapped them.

Before Reagan sales pitch to a guy in the 50% tax bracket: If you buy this airplane I'll lease it back from you. This will make the airplane a business. The owner (you through an S-corp) can take 10% Investment tax credit. You can also take accelerated depreciation. Let's see how this works with some real numbers. $100k airplane you put 20% down and finance the rest for 20 years. So that is $20K out of pocket and your monthly payment on the remaining $80K is about $700. The first year you get 30% back. 10% ITC and 20% depreciation. The ITC comes off your tax liability so that is a 100% return. The 20% only passes through 10% because you still need to pay some taxes. So you've netted $20K on the purchase and your down payment was financed by Uncle Sam. It's not a free airplane, but he ended up with no actual down payment and a monthly payment that will presumably be offset somewhat by the lease back revenue. Even my dad, a cautious Sc.D. engineer thought it made sense and bought an airplane before I taught him to fly.

After Reagan: You love to fly don't you. I've got nothing.

So, it would seem that you are saying before "Reagan" we needed a tax lawyer and tax accountant to decide if we want to buy an airplane and after "Reagan" we just decide if we want to fly or not.
 
...Diamond, Cirrus are not what Cessna and Piper were in the 70's. To be honest, from a financial POV, it's a legitimate question to ask whether or not Cirrus was ever a good investment / should have been started vs what else you could have done with that capital.

I have a hunch that a person could make a decent living with GA aircraft if someone was clever enough to use modern materials and manufacturing to offer something that didn't require a few thousand hours and billions of rivets just like in 1945. But that is just a hunch. Or maybe rather more of a wish.

o_O

Isn't this exactly what Diamond and Cirrus have already done?
 
I have a hunch that a person could make a decent living with GA aircraft if someone was clever enough to use modern materials and manufacturing to offer something that didn't require a few thousand hours and billions of rivets just like in 1945. But that is just a hunch. Or maybe rather more of a wish.
It sounds so simple, but development and certification are not free. A clean-sheet design that takes advantage of modern materials and construction still needs to bring enough business to cover development at some point, even if the manufacturing costs are lower.

Nauga,
who is neither new nor novel
 
It sounds so simple, but development and certification are not free. A clean-sheet design that takes advantage of modern materials and construction still needs to bring enough business to cover development at some point, even if the manufacturing costs are lower.

Nauga,
who is neither new nor novel
What do you mean? The Raptor program seems to be going well...
 
The liability issue is of importance but it is just one piece of the puzzle. GAMA would have one believe that it was the only piece. I think if liability really was the issue then demand would have returned closer to earlier levels. It had to be something structural in addition to liability. So my money is on tax policy (no pun intended).

It's never just one thing. Liability and tax policy may be part of it, but there's lots more.

Some other factors that probably contributed to the decline of light GA.
- rising real fuel prices after the 1973 oil embargo;
- urbanization as populations moved from spread out farms in rural areas to the cities (there's a reason States such as Kansas and Wisconsin become known for GA and it's not because of high population density living in downtown condominiums ;) );
- better highway/interstate road systems and much more capable, more comfortable and safer automobiles;
- low cost discount airlines, and mass air travel (the Southwest influence);
- greater competition from new alternatives for the discretionary, recreational $ spend;
- flat or falling real incomes over at least 3 decades now.
 
So, it would seem that you are saying before "Reagan" we needed a tax lawyer and tax accountant to decide if we want to buy an airplane and after "Reagan" we just decide if we want to fly or not.

Chuckle. You can look at that way but you always needed to decide to fly.
 
It ain't taxes, it's income. In the 70s there was a middle class with disposable income. In the 90s the middle class existed by having both parents working. Today? You're lucky if you aren't classed as an independent contractor with limited/no benefits, low hours and poor pay.

The have nots are growing way faster than the haves, meaning less money that can towards elective hobbies such as GA.

Excellent point.
 
It sounds so simple, but development and certification are not free. A clean-sheet design that takes advantage of modern materials and construction still needs to bring enough business to cover development at some point, even if the manufacturing costs are lower.

Nauga,
who is neither new nor novel

This was the issue companies such as Bellanca and Mooney faced...not enough resources to support and maintain a sufficient product development program. Mooney couldn't even fund its share of the JV that eventually produced the TBM.

Anybody contemplating being in the GA business today is faced with two realities. The low price end of the market is well served by the current used inventory and the high end of the market has a very limited number of potential annual customers seeking the "best of breed".

I would speculate the former is the reason the LSA market hasn't grown faster; one can still buy a more capable used airplane for the price of a new LSA.

And the apparently most successful current personal GA airplane manufacturers figured out the latter quite some time ago - Piper with its Meridian, Daher/SOCATA with the discontinuance of piston production and the shift to the TBM, Cirrus with its relentless march up-market in its product line, Cessna with its Citation Mustang, Embraer with the light Phenom jets...
 
- urbanization as populations moved from spread out farms in rural areas to the cities (there's a reason States such as Kansas and Wisconsin become known for GA and it's not because of high population density living in downtown condominiums ;) );
I have observed the exact opposite. It seems as if GA airports in rural areas are dying while it is thriving more in areas near populations centers. I know this is true around Denver and the San Francisco Bay Area. I think a lot of that is driven by more people with money for play.

When I did charter, I flew into many deserted airports in small towns. The fortunate ones were near recreation or oil & gas areas.
 
How much of it is because airline travel became so commonplace that flying oneself isn’t as big an adventure and certainly not as advantageous as it used to be?

GA built the airlines and the airlines killed GA
 
What did an airline flight 500 miles away cost in the “hey day” of GA compared to now?
 
I will suggest another factor... aviation has failed to develop interest in youth and young people and when they grow up and could be potential customers of GA, they have other interests. When was the has time you saw a kid building/flying a model airplane?
 
Why are the vast majority of great new certified aircraft coming from Europe, with a small number from USA, and almost none from Asia?
I mean.. most "great" pieces of tech come from Europe.. without getting into human nature, politics, and all that "jazz" the European "mindset" (for the most part) has seemed less profit driven and more intellect driven (if that makes sense). A lot of our own great US tech after all was a result of Operation Paperclip. US motivation on the other hand seems more profit maximization driven. Without stating which is better, we'll leave that up to the eye of the beholder, I'm not entirely surprised that the same people who gave us Airbus FBW, brought us the Concorde, give us BMW, Audi, Merc, and a host of other tech, are also the same ones pushing the envelope with GA aircraft design. To that point though, how many European ventures have failed (Concorde, Airbus (wouldn't survive without huge EU backing, to Boeing's chagrin), several aircraft makers, car makers, etc.). You need a balance in there.

The best boats, I would argue (aside from Hinkley) come from Europe too.. the US has Catalina and Hunter.. comfortable, but fairly cheaply and simply built (much like our cars :D).. from the other side of the pond you have Oyster, Swan, Boreal, Hallberg Rassy, etc. Granted.. Oyster's quality was recently drawn into question and I believe they're now in bankruptcy, but if given the choice of an Atlantic crossing on a Catalina/Hunter vs Boreal/Hallberg Rassy I wouldn't even think twice about choosing the non US variants

I think building GA airplanes is a horrid way to try and make money.
Yes! Which is why Cessna and Piper only really exist as a flight school vehicle. Cirrus got lucky and had a perfect storm of good marketing, the whole chute thing, two doors, bigger cabin, etc., but I'm really not sure how long they can sustain their piston sales as the used market for Cirrus grows each day.. why would you spend $1M for something if you can buy virtually the same plane for half the cost? You can buy a very nice turbo G3/G5 SR22 for around $500K.. it will effectively be no different than a new G6 except the wingtips look different. Hell, some of the TN G3 are actually faster. To your point though, you really need either strong financial backing, or lots of capital, or just passion (or some comination). For all the grief we give Peter at Raptor he certainly has the passion part nailed down! The Mooney guys have passion, Piper's got it.. Cessna's passion died when they first killed the piston line. What exists now is just a flightschool vehicle.

and the fine line between compliant and complaint
..unfortunately my default is the latter!
 
the European "mindset" (for the most part) has seemed less profit driven and more intellect driven (if that makes sense).
FYI: that's because a number of industries are subsidized in the EU from R&D up to the manufacture level in some cases. So their priority is less driven to profits than as similar industries in the States.
 
I will suggest another factor... aviation has failed to develop interest in youth and young people and when they grow up and could be potential customers of GA, they have other interests. When was the has time you saw a kid building/flying a model airplane?
I think the interest in "seeing the world from above" is still there.. FS2020 made a big splash, just about everyone has some type of RC "drone" and the airshows (that I've been to) still see good attendance.

What's different is while the rest of the world has defaulted to "any hardship is bad, instant gratification, can I get it through an app?" mentality the idea of dedicating yourself to, and pursuing aviation just seems too daunting to many. Plus, with many people graduating school riddled with debt and barely making ends meet people just don't have the capital to dedicate to it

While telling people I'm a pilot hasn't been the top gun chic magnet I thought it would be, everyone I tell seems interested and I've never had an issue finding non pilot friends for flying trips. My 19 year old nephew, for what it's worth, is super passionate about aviation and already has his multi, instrument, and commercial

PS, regarding the cost.. I think that's the biggest thing though:

$80K salary (good if you graduated in the last 3 years)
=$60K realistically after tax, 401K deduction, etc.

that works out to $5K each month

+$5,000
-$1,200 rent (that's assuming you have a room-mate, ew)
-$700 student loan payments (that's optimistic, many are closer to the $1K mark)
-$500 to savings (aren't you supposed to put at least 10% straight to savings?)
-$150 for car insurance (we assume you already have a car that's paid off.. many do not)
-$1,500 for food and basic living expenses, going out, gas, etc.
-$200 for internet, electricity, etc.
=$750 left at the end of the month

$750/mo won't be enough to realistically get your pilot license.. and the costs above are optimistic. In the San Diego area I don't know anyone who pays less than $1,500 for for rent.. this workup above also doesn't include costs of medical copays, unexpected bills, etc.

It's not a cheap world out there.

Anyway, queue the "millennials suck and are lazy" comments, to which I have a preemptive satirical retort already lined up:
 
I will suggest another factor... aviation has failed to develop interest in youth and young people and when they grow up and could be potential customers of GA, they have other interests. When was the has time you saw a kid building/flying a model airplane?
IMO that's because flying is so commonplace now due to cheap, accessible airline flights. Kids are taken on flights at a rate exponentially higher than during the hey-day of GA, and all their friends have done it too, so the glamour isn't there for them.
 
I will suggest another factor... aviation has failed to develop interest in youth and young people and when they grow up and could be potential customers of GA, they have other interests. When was the has time you saw a kid building/flying a model airplane?
This exactly. Same thing with motorcycles. Interest is just not there like it was
 
I think the interest in "seeing the world from above" is still there.. FS2020 made a big splash, just about everyone has some type of RC "drone" and the airshows (that I've been to) still see good attendance.

What's different is while the rest of the world has defaulted to "any hardship is bad, instant gratification, can I get it through an app?" mentality the idea of dedicating yourself to, and pursuing aviation just seems too daunting to many. Plus, with many people graduating school riddled with debt and barely making ends meet people just don't have the capital to dedicate to it

While telling people I'm a pilot hasn't been the top gun chic magnet I thought it would be, everyone I tell seems interested and I've never had an issue finding non pilot friends for flying trips. My 19 year old nephew, for what it's worth, is super passionate about aviation and already has his multi, instrument, and commercial

PS, regarding the cost.. I think that's the biggest thing though:

$80K salary (good if you graduated in the last 3 years)
=$60K realistically after tax, 401K deduction, etc.

that works out to $5K each month

+$5,000
-$1,200 rent (that's assuming you have a room-mate, ew)
-$700 student loan payments (that's optimistic, many are closer to the $1K mark)
-$500 to savings (aren't you supposed to put at least 10% straight to savings?)
-$150 for car insurance (we assume you already have a car that's paid off.. many do not)
-$1,500 for food and basic living expenses, going out, gas, etc.
-$200 for internet, electricity, etc.
=$750 left at the end of the month

$750/mo won't be enough to realistically get your pilot license.. and the costs above are optimistic. In the San Diego area I don't know anyone who pays less than $1,500 for for rent.. this workup above also doesn't include costs of medical copays, unexpected bills, etc.

It's not a cheap world out there.

Anyway, queue the "millennials suck and are lazy" comments, to which I have a preemptive satirical retort already lined up:
Add up those costs and divide by the cost of a typical commercial flight and you can do quite a bit of flying around and not have to pass any tests other than the tickle test at the gate.

I'm too lazy to do the research and math, but I'd bet you couldn't get more than two, maybe three commercial flights out of the total cost of getting your PPL in 1970.
 
IMO that's because flying is so commonplace now due to cheap, accessible airline flights. Kids are taken on flights at a rate exponentially higher than during the hey-day of GA, and all their friends have done it too, so the glamour isn't there for them.
In my attempts to get kids interested, I found I couldn't compete with their virtual gaming worlds and as of late their drone worlds. I guess it was too analog for them.:rolleyes:
 
Some things never change... these were all new, interesting certified aircraft concepts intended for commercial sale by European manufacturers.

Beagle - Airedale, Terrier, Husky, Pup and 206 twin (vastly over engineered, spent a whole lot of government money, not commercially viable)
Aviamilano - Falco, Nibbio (Falco eventually saved by becoming a Sequoia (US) homebuilt)
Italair - Pegaso and Condor (twin engined answers to a question nobody asked)
General Avia - F.22 Pinguino (an single engined answer to a question nobody asked)
SIAI-Marchetti - S.205 and 208 (slow and not commercially viable)
MBB - Bölkow 207, 208 and 209 (which were at least built in the hundreds)
Mylius - My-102 Tornado and My-103 Mistral (bigger Bo 209, not commercially viable)
ARV - Super2 (innovative UK "world beating" trainer, poorly engineered and unreliable)
Gyroflug - Speed Canard (based on Rutan concept, not commercially viable)
OMF - Symphony (based on Glastar concept, but not commercially viable)
Partenavia - P.66 etc (based on Cessna concept, sponsored by government for their aero clubs, not commercially successful)
Ruschmeyer - R 90 (all composite structures, nobody bought them)
Britten Norman - AKA NAC-1 Freelance (half baked business plan)

Certified light aircraft manufacture is a tough field, and half-baked business plans plus (in many cases) government R&D money has not often worked. Tecnam and Socata might be the two certified European light GA designs that have been the most commercially successful over the last 70 years, although its hard to say with the French because their industry is so intermingled with government. Robin limps along. Diamond has like Socata gone up a bit and back down, and is now like Cirrus Chinese owned.

The US focus on profit driven private companies designing planes that can actually find a market is not an entirely bad thing. :D
 
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I will suggest another factor... aviation has failed to develop interest in youth and young people and when they grow up and could be potential customers of GA, they have other interests. When was the has time you saw a kid building/flying a model airplane?

I never did as a kid. Didn't stop me. The 'pop culture' canard is frankly too reductionist. It's the money Lebowski.

GA has long gentrified, there's not much in the way of velocity of money in the small --s demographic that made it above the water line of the last 40 years of rank Neoliberalism. So much writing material I could share on this dynamic and the myth of American meritocracy, but not on this forum. So I'll stop here.

It's the hollowing out my friend. Like a sink hole, just because the upper middle class street doesn't see a deficit in their immediate material condition, doesn't mean one doesn't exist. Post #49 all day.
 
I never did as a kid. Didn't stop me. The 'pop culture' canard is frankly too reductionist. It's the money Lebowski.

GA has long gentrified, there's not much in the way of velocity of money in the small --s demographic that made it above the water line of the last 40 years of rank Neoliberalism. So much writing material I could share on this dynamic and the myth of American meritocracy, but not on this forum. So I'll stop here.

It's the hollowing out my friend. Like a sink hole, just because the upper middle class street doesn't see a deficit in their immediate material condition, doesn't mean one doesn't exist. Post #49 all day.

martin%20hart-lanndsberg2.gif
 
The 21st century gentry flying their thousands of RVs seem to fake being part of the proletariat with remarkable skill.
 
You forgot Horten.
I want the new Horten.

"When flown at the long-range cruise speed of 87 mph, the HX-2’s 100-hp Rotax 912is engine demonstrated a fuel burn of 2.64 gallons per hour. With 64.4 gallons of fuel capacity, this translates into a preliminary range of 2,123 miles and an endurance of more than 24 hours. Horten predicts a maximum cruise speed of approximately 170 mph." - https://www.flyingmag.com/story/aircraft/horten-hx-2-takes-flight-in-germany/

:eek:
 
I will suggest another factor... aviation has failed to develop interest in youth and young people and when they grow up and could be potential customers of GA, they have other interests. When was the has time you saw a kid building/flying a model airplane?

One of the reasons I am an Aviation Merit Badge Counselor.
 
I will suggest another factor... aviation has failed to develop interest in youth and young people and when they grow up and could be potential customers of GA, they have other interests. When was the has time you saw a kid building/flying a model airplane?

And a lot of that is because there aren't many cool new designs for the kids to get excited about and build. Sure, we've got Cirrus and Diamond - Those designs are already 20 years old!

So, no new airplanes, no new models, no new kids, no new pilots, no new airplanes... And around and around, we circle the drain. :(

There aren't enough aviator heroes getting into the mass media for people to look up to. If anything, it's going to be the YouTubers who inspire the next generation of pilots.
 
I think the interest in "seeing the world from above" is still there.. FS2020 made a big splash, just about everyone has some type of RC "drone" and the airshows (that I've been to) still see good attendance.

What's different is while the rest of the world has defaulted to "any hardship is bad, instant gratification, can I get it through an app?" mentality the idea of dedicating yourself to, and pursuing aviation just seems too daunting to many. Plus, with many people graduating school riddled with debt and barely making ends meet people just don't have the capital to dedicate to it

While telling people I'm a pilot hasn't been the top gun chic magnet I thought it would be, everyone I tell seems interested and I've never had an issue finding non pilot friends for flying trips. My 19 year old nephew, for what it's worth, is super passionate about aviation and already has his multi, instrument, and commercial

PS, regarding the cost.. I think that's the biggest thing though:

$80K salary (good if you graduated in the last 3 years)
=$60K realistically after tax, 401K deduction, etc.

that works out to $5K each month

+$5,000
-$1,200 rent (that's assuming you have a room-mate, ew)
-$700 student loan payments (that's optimistic, many are closer to the $1K mark)
-$500 to savings (aren't you supposed to put at least 10% straight to savings?)
-$150 for car insurance (we assume you already have a car that's paid off.. many do not)
-$1,500 for food and basic living expenses, going out, gas, etc.
-$200 for internet, electricity, etc.
=$750 left at the end of the month

$750/mo won't be enough to realistically get your pilot license.. and the costs above are optimistic. In the San Diego area I don't know anyone who pays less than $1,500 for for rent.. this workup above also doesn't include costs of medical copays, unexpected bills, etc.

It's not a cheap world out there.

Anyway, queue the "millennials suck and are lazy" comments, to which I have a preemptive satirical retort already lined up:

Don't live on the coast and get that 80k-100k job where the costs are 1/3 of what you quoted (the internet cost remains the same though) and rerun the numbers. The numbers you put out there are ridiculous.

I live on a salary of around $45k and get by just fine.

(I do take a yearly bonus but all of my living expenses including the plane are based on me getting 0 bonus.)

$1500 a monty for going out and basics? GtFO.
 
Don't live on the coast and get that 80k-100k job where the costs are 1/3 of what you quoted (the internet cost remains the same though) and rerun the numbers. The numbers you put out there are ridiculous.

I live on a salary of around $45k and get by just fine.

(I do take a yearly bonus but all of my living expenses including the plane are based on me getting 0 bonus.)

$1500 a monty for going out and basics? GtFO.

Even on the east coast (in Taxachusetts) I was able to fly with that 80k-100k job (and buy a small aircraft).
 
Don't live on the coast
Different strokes for different folks I guess. I can't imagine living somewhere without coastal access. Florida is a cheaper option than many coastal areas, but I'm not ready to give up mountains, the desert, skiing.

I'm not complaining, just stating that for many people the cost of flying, even if they can swing it:
I was able to fly with that 80k-100k job (and buy a small aircraft).
(as was I, hell I found a way to do it on the west coast at $75K for a long time)
..is generally not super appealing, add on top of that the big time commitment, intellectual commitment, medical "issues" with more and more people (it seems) having to contend with an ADHD or drug issue.. the headwinds add up

My point was in response to the other poster up thread though, I think people have a general interest in things that fly, but once you add up all the requirements to actually become a pilot it loses its luster.. easier to just buy that drone with the gopro on it and call it a day (for many)
 
Different strokes for different folks I guess. I can't imagine living somewhere without coastal access. Florida is a cheaper option than many coastal areas, but I'm not ready to give up mountains, the desert, skiing.

I'm not complaining, just stating that for many people the cost of flying, even if they can swing it:
(as was I, hell I found a way to do it on the west coast at $75K for a long time)
..is generally not super appealing, add on top of that the big time commitment, intellectual commitment, medical "issues" with more and more people (it seems) having to contend with an ADHD or drug issue.. the headwinds add up

My point was in response to the other poster up thread though, I think people have a general interest in things that fly, but once you add up all the requirements to actually become a pilot it loses its luster.. easier to just buy that drone with the gopro on it and call it a day (for many)

So basically you are saying people don't want to spend money? :D
 
This is going to get interesting. It's the tax code. The Reagan tax cuts killed GA. Subsequent tax code changes have only made it worse. Why, because incentives to invest in capital goods and capital goods manufacturing went away. I've been thinking about this for 30 years, I've never said it publicly. Let's see if my hypothesis withstands scrutiny. Have at it.

From this comment, my take away is the loss of deductions for aircraft for non-business W2 paycheck people. A lot of loopholes in the tax code were closed in 1986 for deductions for W2 in exchange for an overall lower tax rate. The top federal rate at the time was 28% and in California was 6% - if memory serves. Cessna also exited the GA piston business that year due to stupid tort litigation outcomes like $10M's in judgements for worn seat rails; something that was an unaddressed maintenance item in my opinion.

A person could buy a nice used 5-10 year old used Cessna or Piper and deduct the purchase price from their adjusted gross tax from a paycheck. Certainly a factor in affordability. Buying a newer plane also meant less maintenance contributing to affordability. The avionics were simpler. A used Cessna restart plane frequently means dealing with an old G1000 and it's much higher maintenance costs should something fail.
 
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