New Interesting Planes - Why do they come from Europe?

[NordicDave]

Open question or debate.

Why are the vast majority of great new certified aircraft coming from Europe, with a small number from USA, and almost none from Asia?

Before people launch off on tort lawyers or the FAA, these are certified or will be certified planes coming to the USA under part 23 or EASA rules under trade treaty.

Companies recently getting an A/C certified or in certification process, or already certified that look interesting:
Europe:

• Risen: http://www.flyrisen.com/indexEn.html
• Panthera: https://www.pipistrel-aircraft.com/aircraft/cruising/panthera/
• Diamond DA50 & DA62: https://www.diamondaircraft.com/en/
• Technam P2010 & P2012 https://www.tecnam.com/us/aircraft/

USA:

• Glasair Sportsman: https://glasairaviation.com/sportsman/
• Carbon Cub: http://cubcrafters.com/carboncub

From Asia all I can think of is the Honda Jet from recent new A/C announcements.

All the action in the USA seems to be very high-end or experimental's. Cessna has new Turbo props and jets - stuff out of reach for mortal POA'ers

Almost added the Raptor as click bait but decided to keep it clean.

 

[Capt. Geoffrey Thorpe]

Because the U.S. and Europe are where the markets are?

 

[NordicDave]

Just interesting we don't see any GA aircraft from Asia, and a trickle of new designs from the USA, with most of the clean-sheet designs from Europe.

 

[jrcox19]

Just an FYI, a lot of manufacturers don't put out anything about their "in certification process" aircraft until they're nearly complete. So it's hard to have enough data to prove a point.

If you look, there are hundreds of LSA manufacturers in europe that are "about to certify" for the US -- odd how none of those seem to materialize.

 

[NordicDave]

Just an FYI, a lot of manufacturers don't put out anything about their "in certification process" aircraft until they're nearly complete. So it's hard to have enough data to prove a point.

If you look, there are hundreds of LSA manufacturers in europe that are "about to certify" for the US -- odd how none of those seem to materialize.

Hard to disagree, so tried to stick with part 23 type planes. Amazing we don't have a Diamond or Tecnam type company here in this country.

 

[jrcox19]

Hard to disagree, so tried to stick with part 23 type planes. Amazing we don't have a Diamond or Tecnam type company here in this country.

While not LSA, I would lump the Risen and the Pipistrel into the same category (vaporware) -- They are nowhere near FAA certified.

And I would certainly consider Cirrus to be the US equivalent of Diamond, just because they haven't come out with a whole new type design recently doesn't mean there's a problem

 

[flyingcheesehead]

Open question or debate.

Why are the vast majority of great new certified aircraft coming from Europe, with a small number from USA, and almost none from Asia?

Before people launch off on tort lawyers or the FAA, these are certified or will be certified planes coming to the USA under part 23 or EASA rules under trade treaty.

Companies recently getting an A/C certified or in certification process, or already certified that look interesting:
Europe:

• Risen: http://www.flyrisen.com/indexEn.html
• Panthera: https://www.pipistrel-aircraft.com/aircraft/cruising/panthera/
• Diamond DA50 & DA62: https://www.diamondaircraft.com/en/
• Technam P2010 & P2012 https://www.tecnam.com/us/aircraft/

USA:

• Glasair Sportsman: https://glasairaviation.com/sportsman/
• Carbon Cub: http://cubcrafters.com/carboncub

From Asia all I can think of is the Honda Jet from recent new A/C announcements.

All the action in the USA seems to be very high-end or experimental's. Cessna has new Turbo props and jets - stuff out of reach for mortal POA'ers

HondaJet isn't Asia. Honda mothership is, but the HondaJet group is based in the US.

I would venture to guess that our underfunded, disrespected education system is not cranking out enough people with the proper knowledge and abilities to go into aeronautical engineering, among other things in America that are not Great and haven't really ever been. This is just the first sign that we're being left behind by the rest of the world.

 

[Doc Holliday]

I would venture to guess that our underfunded, disrespected education system is not cranking out enough people with the proper knowledge and abilities to go into aeronautical engineering, among other things in America that are not Great and haven't really ever been. This is just the first sign that we're being left behind by the rest of the world.

 

[Bell206]

Amazing we don't have a Diamond or Tecnam type company here in this country

We do/did in Cirrus and Columbia. But you have to keep in mind aviation manufacture in the EU is heavily subsidized vs here. And just like in EU both Cirrus and Columbia got their start via a government program. So the reason is mainly no market in US for a start up Part 23 aircraft company with the secondary issue of legal concerns. Economics 101.

 

[nauga]

I would venture to guess that our underfunded, disrespected education system is not cranking out enough people with the proper knowledge and abilities to go into aeronautical engineering...

I think we run with very different crowds. I would say the GA market does not have a lot of attraction for new engineers, not that there are not talented new engineers. There is research and development going on in the US, leading to advances in aerospace, just not in the nearly-dead GA market. At least that's been my observation.

Nauga,
pooled

 

[Bob Noel]

HondaJet isn't Asia. Honda mothership is, but the HondaJet group is based in the US.

I would venture to guess that our underfunded, disrespected education system is not cranking out enough people with the proper knowledge and abilities to go into aeronautical engineering, among other things in America that are not Great and haven't really ever been. This is just the first sign that we're being left behind by the rest of the world.

Apollo 11, 12, 13 (yes 13), 14, 15, 16, and 17

the shuttle

unmanned probes all over the solar system

Weather satellites that make flying much safer

and let's not forget GPS.

yup - America isn't Great and never was.

good grief.

 

[flyingcheesehead]

I think we run with very different crowds. I would say the GA market does not have a lot of attraction for new engineers, not that there are not talented new engineers. There is research and development going on in the US, leading to advances in aerospace, just not in the nearly-dead GA market. At least that's been my observation.

Yeah, I'd buy that too... Still sad. Want. More. Airplanes.

 

[flyingcheesehead]

Apollo 11, 12, 13 (yes 13), 14, 15, 16, and 17

the shuttle

Which were very inspiring, but Apollo was designed before I was born and I ain't no spring chicken... And they started on the Shuttle before I was born too, though all of the shuttle launches were during my lifetime.

Seriously, that stuff is from 40-50+ years ago. Not exactly inspiring the next generation today.

unmanned probes all over the solar system

Weather satellites that make flying much safer

and let's not forget GPS.

yup - America isn't Great and never was.

I never said that.

 

[jrcox19]

Which were very inspiring, but Apollo was designed before I was born and I ain't no spring chicken... And they started on the Shuttle before I was born too, though all of the shuttle launches were during my lifetime.

Seriously, that stuff is from 40-50+ years ago. Not exactly inspiring the next generation today.

SpaceX, Blue Origin, ULA... They're all doing inspiring stuff too, and in the US.

 

[AGLyme]

Husky is a great American aero company.

And, in my opinion, this American group in Florida is beating the Europeans in the gyro category... seems to be an improvement over what the Euros invented about 7-12 years ago... and still pushing.

https://silverlightaviation.com/

 

[Bell206]

Not exactly inspiring the next generation today

I guess you haven't been by SpaceX lately.

 

[NordicDave]

HondaJet isn't Asia. Honda mothership is, but the HondaJet group is based in the US.

Learned something new, did not realize that.

 

[NordicDave]

Apollo 11, 12, 13 (yes 13), 14, 15, 16, and 17

the shuttle

unmanned probes all over the solar system

Weather satellites that make flying much safer

and let's not forget GPS.

yup - America isn't Great and never was.

good grief.

SpaceX, Blue Origin, ULA... They're all doing inspiring stuff too, and in the US.

Agree, but hardly part 23 GA aircraft...

 

[nauga]

Yeah, I'd buy that too... Still sad. Want. More. Airplanes.

There *are* more airplanes...POA joked about Otto, but that didn't look like a bunch of old guys. Lots of small-scope 'startup' projects happening,many may not survive but it's still new aircraft and new technology...and started and run by 'youngsters'. Boeing Phantom Works. Scaled Composites. The past two companies I've worked for, I've been the oldest or darn near it with a wiiiiide gap between me and the mean, and I sure as heck ain't the smartest. There are sharp young engineers out there and they are designing and building airplanes. They are either working a business case that closes or creating entirely new ones. One might turn your post around and say the GA market isn't failing because we don't have smart young engineers, it's because our young engineers are smart enough to avoid a dying market.

Nauga,
and rah rah and all that

 

[Dana]

I think we run with very different crowds. I would say the GA market does not have a lot of attraction for new engineers, not that there are not talented new engineers. There is research and development going on in the US, leading to advances in aerospace, just not in the nearly-dead GA market. At least that's been my observation.

I dunno, GA had a lot of attraction for me, but the job prospects are bleak and have been for a long time... when I graduated with a degree in aerospace engineering (granted it was 40 years ago) I sent resumes to Cessna, Beech, Piper, etc. Nobody was hiring, though I got a nice note from Bellanca informing me they'd just filed Chapter 11 (I didn't even know that that was). Lockheed California was hiring, but I didn't want to move to Burbank, so I ended up taking a mechanical engineering job designing gound support equipment for the Navy at Lakehurst. That turned out to be a good move, the job prospects are a lot better outside the aerospace industry, which a short stint at Sikorsky proved to me a couple of years later when they laid me off after only 9 months on the job.

The other problem is that most of the real aerospace action is in places where I really wouldn't want to live and raise a family.

 

[Bob Noel]

Which were very inspiring, but Apollo was designed before I was born and I ain't no spring chicken... And they started on the Shuttle before I was born too, though all of the shuttle launches were during my lifetime.

Seriously, that stuff is from 40-50+ years ago. Not exactly inspiring the next generation today.

well, you said "among other things in America that are not Great and haven't really ever been."

40+ years ago, it still disproves your claim.

"though all of the shuttle launches were during my lifetime." - snot-nosed kid. (>-{

 

[nauga]

...the job prospects are a lot better outside the aerospace industry...
The other problem is that most of the real aerospace action is in places where I really wouldn't want to live and raise a family.

Lower standards and willingness to compromise have provided me with excellent job opportunities.

Nauga,
who has put up with a lot to be able to work on some cool stuff in some gawd-awful places

 

[Doc Holliday]

One might turn your post around and say the GA market isn't failing because we don't have smart young engineers, it's because our young engineers are smart enough to avoid a dying market.

Nauga,
and rah rah and all that

That in a nutshell. GA is a dying market, and will continue to do so.

 

[Tusayan]

1) Check Diamond and Tecnam new aircraft sales in the US market, not a big number and not increasing. The US has a huge number of good used aircraft, available at a fraction of the price of new ones offered by any company, from anywhere. Cirrus and Cessna have most of the profitable new factory built aircraft market in the US sewn up. LSA Cubs etc have much of the the rest. So not much market available at home.

2) Homebuilts in the US compete very well against factory built aircraft, and new RVs are being built and flown instead of factory built sport planes. So not much market available at home.

(3) While neither (1) nor (2) is true in Europe (which is the main non-US market), startup American aircraft companies are not super interested in doing business in Europe, either under EASA regs or national UL regs, because of ridiculous regulatory complexity and instability. That leaves Australia and New Zealand, not much volume there, plus the rest of the world where GA as we know it is mostly illegal and/or impractical.

 

[Bill Watson]

The real question is why do most high performance sailplanes come from Europe?


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Pro

 

[Tusayan]

Avgas in Europe is $9/gallon plus, auto fuel is about $6/gallon and wages are less. Clubs and sailplanes (which benefit in operation from lots of free manpower) are the traditional answer.

 

[Shepherd]

You forgot Horten.
I want the new Horten.

 

[NordicDave]

You forgot Horten.
I want the new Horten.

Dang that's cool and exactly the point. Another innovation from Europe.

 

[jrcox19]

Dang that's cool and exactly the point. Another innovation from Europe.

See my earlier post about vaporware.. That, the Risen, and the Panthera are a VERY long way from being certified in the US. If all you want a prototypes and homebuilt, there are plenty of US companies that are well known/respected as EAB designers.

 

[flyingcheesehead]

SpaceX, Blue Origin, ULA... They're all doing inspiring stuff too, and in the US.

SpaceX? Sure, but they're not airplanes.

Blue Origin? Meh. Trying to do what SpaceX is doing, but poorly.

ULA? Likewise, but doing it with a crap-ton more government funding.

And none of them are airplanes.

There *are* more airplanes...POA joked about Otto, but that didn't look like a bunch of old guys.

That one IS exciting... And I sincerely hope they achieve their goals. I love a good industry disruptor.

I'm probably never gonna be buying one for myself, though.

One might turn your post around and say the GA market isn't failing because we don't have smart young engineers, it's because our young engineers are smart enough to avoid a dying market.

And that right there is the sad truth.

well, you said "among other things in America that are not Great and haven't really ever been."

40+ years ago, it still disproves your claim.

I wasn't talking about the space program when I said that, and I never said that we haven't done great things. I'm trying not to get too political as this is an interesting topic I'd rather not see locked.

 

[jrollf]

No market... new part 23 aircraft are so stupid expensive that even most high income upper class people can't afford a new one.

When a ancient design REBUILT engine can easily cost $20-$60k, the market is broke. You can buy some really nice adult toys for the price of one old rebuilt airplane engine.

Just think what kind of fun things you can buy for the best price of a new 172.

 

[steingar]

I think building GA airplanes is a horrid way to try and make money. I don't think anyone has done it since the 80's. Most aircraft manufacturers stumble from investor to investor. Hard to tell if they break any profit at all. And it takes a crapload of money to launch one of those things and get it past certification. Most airplane people don't have the money, and most money people are insufficiently invested in aviation to be willing to stomach the loss.

 

[Doc Holliday]

I'm trying not to get too political as this is an interesting topic I'd rather not see locked.

But you, and you alone, took this thread in that direction.

 

[NordicDave]

See my earlier post about vaporware.. That, the Risen, and the Panthera are a VERY long way from being certified in the US. If all you want a prototypes and homebuilt, there are plenty of US companies that are well known/respected as EAB designers.

At least there are planes in the pipeline, a whole lot more than the in the US pipeline we know of anyway.

Seems like the current route to certified market is experimental to build time in the fleet and use the customer base as the test pilots for needed certified data.

 

[nauga]

Seems like the current route to certified market is experimental to build time in the fleet and use the customer base as the test pilots for needed certified data.

Starting with experimentals can help refine a design and give one the ability to modify a design quickly to meet goals before cert testing starts but no experimental-built aircraft data can be used to show cert compliance unless it can be proven that it conforms to the manufacturing design, which ain't gonna happen in customer-built airplane.

Nauga,
and the fine line between compliant and complaint

 

[flyingcheesehead]

But you, and you alone, took this thread in that direction.

I ran right to the edge, but I did not jump off the cliff.

 

[Doc Holliday]

I ran right to the edge, but I did not jump off the cliff.

You went over the cliff long ago..............

 

[GRG55]

Which were very inspiring, but Apollo was designed before I was born and I ain't no spring chicken... And they started on the Shuttle before I was born too...

I was assembling the Revell plastic model of the Gemini capsule on my parents coffee table in front of the television while they allowed me to stay up late watching the coverage of Gemini VIII.

You may not be a "spring chicken", but you're still just a young pup.

And some day I have to make a pilgrimage to Wapakoneta, to see the real thing.

 

[Fracpilot]

Yeah, I'd buy that too... Still sad. Want. More. Airplanes.

I’m certain this country has the talent. But the used market is plentiful. Its ridiculous that it’s $800k for a new Cirrus, Corvallis, Mooney or Piper. There’s no difference in performance in a new vs used SR22. Lancair Columbia/Cessna Corvallis and most new vs used airplanes.

They’re just putting out enough to keep the assembly lines open (except Mooney) and it’s still a pretty flooded market at that very high price point.

There’s no reason a single engine airplane that’s mass produced should cost more than $300k.

I’d love to have more planes too but the price point for a US certified airplane is out of control. Over a million for a Baron? No way in hell I’d ever buy that.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[GRG55]

I think building GA airplanes is a horrid way to try and make money. I don't think anyone has done it since the 80's. Most aircraft manufacturers stumble from investor to investor. Hard to tell if they break any profit at all. And it takes a crapload of money to launch one of those things and get it past certification. Most airplane people don't have the money, and most money people are insufficiently invested in aviation to be willing to stomach the loss.

Bingo! ^^^This.

The history of Cirrus is instructive. The apparent epitome of modern new design, high performance light aircraft. Well appointed working class SR20, lower middle-class SR22, upper middle class SR22 Turbo and the upper class SF50 jet - something for everyone.

In 2001, less than a year after Cirrus received the type certificate for the SR-22, it sold 58% of the company to an Arab Islamic Bank, Arcapita, for $100 million. Just about 10 years later, 2011, the entire company was sold to Chinese government owned China Aviation Industry General Aircraft for $210 million. Arcapita's value in that disposition transaction was $121.8 million - a little over 2% average annual return on investment.

And during that time Cirrus added what should have reflected considerable corporate value as it:

• developed the production facility and raised production of the SR-20 and SR-22,
• invested in product improvements and announced subsequent "generation" models,
• delivered the first all-glass panel light piston aircraft,
• secured type certification in Europe,
• introduced the SF50 Vision jet.

I found out Arcapita was controlling shareholder of Cirrus in 2006 when I walked into the reception area of their office down the street from mine in the Diplomatic Area of Manama, Bahrain and saw a Cirrus airplane model on display. At the time Arcapita was still enthusiastic about the investment, and Cirrus was close to having delivered 3000 airplanes in total. At the end of the following year, 2007, apparently less enthusiastic, as it announced it would like to sell the interest. Still took them more 3 years to find a buyer, and as the above calculation shows, not much to show its investors for a return over the decade long holding period.

@steingar is correct. The only way anybody invests in certificated light GA aircraft development is if they are the type of investor where the opportunity cost of capital employed is unimportant...the Arab and Chinese mentality (note, both societies have a predilection to invest in property and leave it empty, for years if necessary, waiting for a capital gain).