N6483B missing near Aberdeen, SD

ApacheBob

ApacheBob

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On Thursday, October 10, N6483B went missing near Aberdeen, SD. The aircraft departed Aberdeen enroute to 2D5 at 10 pm. The aircraft remains missing as of October 16. Any thoughts?
 
Fly the route?

Not sure what to tell you, you didn’t even mention the type or how many peeps onboard or weather or anything
 
@James331 I was curious also, and according to the FAA Registry, it's a 1956 model Cessna 172, owned by an individual with a SD address. I'd be interested in the weather as well.

David

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk
 
No a very far flight but one large lake along the way. It's just coming off full moon now so maybe some moon light. I hate to say it but if he had had ADSB we'd probably know the answer to within 5 miles or so.

Looks like Aberdeeen and Sioux Falls CAP started looking around Sunday so Thursday night and all day Friday and Saturday before they spooled up. There was a CRJ that landed there at 11pm the night he left, maybe they heard something closer to arrival.
 
Sinistar said:
No a very far flight but one large lake along the way. It's just coming off full moon now so maybe some moon light. I hate to say it but if he had had ADSB we'd probably know the answer to within 5 miles or so.

Looks like Aberdeeen and Sioux Falls CAP started looking around Sunday so Thursday night and all day Friday and Saturday before they spooled up. There was a CRJ that landed there at 11pm the night he left, maybe they heard something closer to arrival.
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Looks like he was in the middle of a area with few ground based ADSB towers.

DD65-F130-39-E5-41-BB-97-E6-7-DFCF25-E885-B.jpg



This also reminds me of a experience documented about CAP on another forum

These are some of the things that apparently went wrong with the notifications & procedures. They are listed chronologically whenever possible. Note: The aircraft apparently crashed shortly after **********.


1) There was an unconfirmed report in **** on Sunday of smoke on the ridge between *******. Because there was no report of an aircraft emergency, it is unknown what procedures were implemented.
2) Although the FAA reportedly issued an ALNOT Report at ***** -- lots of counties and agencies were NOT notified for several days.
3) **** CAP (usually *******) regularly briefed the extended family on the search area & number of planes assigned. At the time, we did not know that they kept refusing other SAR resources (****** and other volunteers). It is still unclear who they did & did not notify. It is still unclear if they truly had the authority for all command decisions and had the right to refuse competent SAR resources. There seems to be conflicting guidance on this and even the counties didn't seem to know who was in charge.
4) Tuesday evening, I was flabbergasted that the ****** Sheriff's Office dispatcher told me that they were NOT aware of any missing plane even though they were located in ****** -- where the plane was last seen. ****** had briefed me that he was in touch with their acting Sheriff and he knew about it -- but the dispatcher claimed no knowledge of it and wasn't interested in the information.
5) In subsequent days, family & friends were contacting lots of county sheriff's offices to verify that they had been notified. We are still gathering times, dates, names, etc., but several counties including adjoining counties told us on Wednesday & even Thursday that they had received NO notifications on a missing plane in the area. Some counties said that they were quite upset because they had highly trained & equipped SAR resources that would gladly have begun searching days earlier.
6) Wednesday, we were assured that several counties including ******** had lots of ground SAR teams searching the local area. We were contacted on the Facebook page "*****" by private folks in that area who had volunteered their services with horses, ATVs & sleds, etc., but they told us that they were told by the county that they were NOT needed because they already had LOTS of search teams. Later, we received unconfirmed reports that SAR teams were not really deployed in that area after all. We really don't know!
7) When family members were contacting the governors & senators of **** requesting National Guard resources such as Black Hawks and ground search teams, they were repeatedly told that it was impractical because the search area was 2400 sq. miles. This was an invalid reason for rejecting those resources, because there was NO evidence that they ever got out of the valley from the ****** Airport. Shortly after takeoff, there was one single ping received near ****** -- with NO further contact. On Wednesday, a group of us including off duty pilots and an air traffic controller went over every scrap of evidence or absence there of. We went through EVERY conceivable scenario and our group agreed unanimously that there was NO evidence they ever got out of the valley area. On Wednesday night, I contacted CAP ***** and he verbally agreed with our findings. I insisted that because a severe winter storm was forecast, the governors & National Guard must be contacted immediately to mobilize all appropriate resources for Thursday morning. Black Hawk helicopters would be absolutely critical in searching the local ridges, canyons & ledges before they would be buried by snow! One ****** National Guard Black Hawk made one sortie late Thursday afternoon and reportedly were joined by 2 more on Friday. We are unaware of any National Guard ground search resources being deployed.
Because of our connections with the USAF, Wing Commanders or Command Posts at several bases in the region were contacted. Significant resources such as photo reconnaissance aircraft, rescue helicopters and even unmanned drones were reportedly available but had to be officially requested through channels. We had a friend who works with classified satellite imagery that said they could have helped, but we couldn't get anyone in authority to make the request. That imagery and/or unmanned drones could have focused around the ***** area, the mountains just north and east of there, and a few lakes in the area.
9) **** Search & Rescue was contacted by family members and they indicated they could provide technical expertise or deploy teams & equipment if officially requested through channels. That option was not chosen.


End Result: The missing plane was found by a ***** DPS helicopter at approx. 8:00 am, ****** -- 11.2 miles east of the ***** Airport. The pilot, 2 passengers and 2 dogs did not survive.


The **** State Medical Examiner in *** states that the pilot died almost immediately, but his 34 year old girlfriend probably lived 3-4 days. Both of her lower legs were broken, but she eventually died from exposure. He also stated that her 9 year old daughter probably lived for 4-5 days before lying down next to her mother and dying of exposure. Grrrrr! She was relatively uninjured and her tracks were all over the hillside apparently trying to get help. The NTSB Lead Investigator stated a cell phone was found showing that the young girl had been trying to send text messages to her Daddy for help. Grrrr!


I'm sure that there are plenty of officials that feel terrible about this tragedy. But I highly doubt that any one of them would have any idea how horribly the system failed us all in this case. Some of these counties spend a lot of time, effort, and money preparing for SAR missions. We cheapen their dedicated efforts if we don't find the resolve to overcome these critical problems. In honor of our young friends -- we MUST do better and save lives in the future!!!


We will appreciate your efforts to help with this matter. Thank you!
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If someone I cared about didn’t report in I’d get everyone I know to fly the route, hike the route etc, also a good reason for a spot or spidertracks and having a responsible person known to you to have access to the link.
 
I lost a relative who was swept off the beach by a rogue wave. We didn't know she was taken by a wave, only that she disappeared and it was heartbreaking that we couldn't get anything in the air (OVC 50 ft) and 2 miles. Even the coasties couldn't fly, despite being only 20 miles from one of their stations. I had wanted to charter a couple of helicopters out of Olympia to come help, but no one could get in the air and the ceiling never got better than 100-200 feet. Probably best I didn't have access to a plane or I'd have scud run the son of a ***** down there and skimmed the ocean as long as we had any clearance above the water, but I couldn't.

we beat every bush on the whole peninsula just in case she wasn't swept to sea (no one saw her get swept, as it was night).

per James' idea, about 40 of us converged from across the state and spent the whole day looking over every square yard of sand and scrub brush on the beach within a mile of the water and didn't find her. S&R showed up (all 2 of them) and joined us, but without friends and family we'd not have felt like we really tried. I saw 75 year olds walking two yards to my side who weren't going to quit until we'd walked the whole god damned thing and made SURE she wasn't in the brush, possibly disabled by an injury.

If you ever lose someone, get whoever in your family is good at riding people's ass and put them on the authorities, and then burn up your whole contact list getting your own people out searching. Don't rely on the government. Demand their help, but realize you're going to have to do a substantial part of it.
 
The weather was terrible that night with rain showers, temps in the 30s and a snow storm moving in.
 
What do yall guess the range of a adsb transponder signal is at 3-5k feet for a short hop like that?
 
Line-of-sight is affected by a multitude of factors, especially at those frequencies (1090 MHz), including atmospheric conditions and weather, but . . . at an altitude between three and five thousand feet, the range would be between seventy and ninety nautical miles.

However . . . on the FAA's ADS-B FAQ page, they say this about the ground stations:

"In general, the range would depend on your aircraft's altitude and any terrain that might block your line of site with the radio station. However, there are also practical limits due to transmitter power and receiver sensitivity. Line-of-sight range to a radio is typically 150 nautical miles or greater."

https://www.faa.gov/nextgen/programs/adsb/faq/

As some like to say, "Your Mileage May Vary."

David

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk
 
70-90nm LOS sounds about right, 150 maybe in ideal lab conditions.

At least thats been my experience experimenting with ADSB air to air and also with all the tracker sites
 
I am guessing a GBT or a flightaware home station would have got a few squits. But I am also guessing the plane wasn't equipped since flightaware doesn't show any other flights with that tail number.
 
We live in such flat land I always figured a plane would be found the next day. This one sure sucks. Mud Lake is on his route and pretty decent sized, sure hope he didn't go in there.

I will admit, it's cool seeing the CAP activity on flight aware looking for him.
 
Sinistar said:
We live in such flat land I always figured a plane would be found the next day. This one sure sucks. Mud Lake is on his route and pretty decent sized, sure hope he didn't go in there.

I will admit, it's cool seeing the CAP activity on flight aware looking for him.
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Looks like something caught their interest?

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2.jpg
 
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I’m in an area with no ground stations. Basically in a basin.
ADSB picks us up as soon as we get off the runway. We still don’t have ground station receiving at this point. But something is picking up the signal and reporting it.
 
GRG55 said:
Maybe this is one reason the rest of the world is going satellite for ADS-B.
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it'd be nice to have either satellite or diversity, eh? I almost always have coverage, but our planes have 345's so if I'm not getting ground, i'm almost always getting from an airliner over me. I don't know if I see UAT targets via my 1090es if it's coming from the airliners above me. I haven't studied it enough, but do find it incredibly valuable for traffic and weather, and some feeling that maybe I could be located faster if we had a forced landing
 
According to personal experience with ForeFlight, ADS-B signal in that area is none to moderate at 5-7000ft (roughly 4-6000 AGL)
 
KaiGywer said:
According to personal experience with ForeFlight, ADS-B signal in that area is none to moderate at 5-7000ft (roughly 4-6000 AGL)
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But that doesn't mean there isn't a home based stratux like receiver for flightaware running somewhere nearby.

Looking at later CAP flights on flightaware. If you view their track log they indicate being recorded by FlightAware. Perhaps that's taken from a GBT right at Aberdeen or a flightaware standalone station. But this is where the missing plane departed so obviously its initial track would have shown up.

Of course, if this plane was not equipped it would be of no help.

Or even more yucky, what if it was equipped but a privacy block was requested by the pilot for flightaware tracks. His departure track could have been captured and no one would see it.

In my area my flights always show up on flightaware once above 700agl or so.
 
Actually there are 2 piaware receivers and a feeder right in Aberdeen and another piaware just a bit east of his track about 30 miles NE of aberdeen. Those should have picked up a lower altitude flight. But probably not if scud running down below 1000agl.
 
GRG55 said:
Maybe this is one reason the rest of the world is going satellite for ADS-B.
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I was more thinking why lots of pilots in places like Alaska and backcountry folks have a spot or spider tracks

Someone vested in you > person who looks for you because that’s how they get paid.
 
When I first decided to get my PPL I bought 2 things, a nice headset and a PLB.
 
MIFlyer said:
I almost always have coverage, but our planes have 345's so if I'm not getting ground, i'm almost always getting from an airliner over me. I don't know if I see UAT targets via my 1090es if it's coming from the airliners above me.
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The GTX 345 is dual-band, so you're getting UAT targets directly. The airliners aren't giving you anything but their own position.
 
flyingcheesehead said:
The GTX 345 is dual-band, so you're getting UAT targets directly. The airliners aren't giving you anything but their own position.
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sorry, but am I getting them from the targets or through a ground station? ie, if a target is flying 2 miles from me, and has 978 only and there are no ground stations, should he show up on my screen?
 
MIFlyer said:
sorry, but am I getting them from the targets or through a ground station? ie, if a target is flying 2 miles from me, and has 978 only and there are no ground stations, should he show up on my screen?
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Yes. The GTX345/GNX375 GDL39/Gdl5x, Stratus, etc will all receive both transmits directly from aircraft even without going thru the ADSB ground based towers. That's how the FlightAware raspberry pi stations can pick up even more than the govts ADSB towers.

I am guessing the 1090 transmits (airlines, GTX3X5,etc) are the more powerful 200watt. I figured the 978 units (Skybeacon) send with less power so maybe you won't receive them as far away (line of site).
 
MIFlyer said:
sorry, but am I getting them from the targets or through a ground station? ie, if a target is flying 2 miles from me, and has 978 only and there are no ground stations, should he show up on my screen?
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Yes.

If you had a transponder that was 1090-only, you would only get the 978/UAT traffic if you were in range of a tower. Because the 345 is dual band, it can receive everyone's signals directly, so you'll show all ADS-B Out equipped traffic on screen, even when you're out of radar coverage and/or out of ADS-B coverage.

What you won't get without the towers is weather.
 
So what about this theory:

With (3) piaware receivers located somewhat near his path there might be another possibility.

Let's say this plane did not have ADSB-OUT (99% sure) but let's say it did have a mode C transponder and it was on and working. Then there is the possibility that 3 piaware receivers also received the 1090 XPDR replies. Now it may just chuck them since they are not ADSB-OUT data. But if the mode c data was retained you would have some pressure altitude info and even more importantly, some signal strength derivative. Knowing when they stopped being received along with typical 172 speed might define a radius. Yes, he might have flown too low for a ATC radar to sweep his plane, but then again just 5 to 10 replies between those 3 stations could help confirm general direction, etc.
 
MIFlyer said:
If you ever lose someone, get whoever in your family is good at riding people's ass and put them on the authorities, and then burn up your whole contact list getting your own people out searching. Don't rely on the government. Demand their help, but realize you're going to have to do a substantial part of it.
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With all due respect, government agencies have limited SAR assets, and they almost always deploy those assets for as long it's practical to do so. Many times searches are called off when elapsed time precludes the possibility of survival.

KaiGywer said:
The weather was terrible that night with rain showers, temps in the 30s and a snow storm moving in.
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A tale told many times before, always with the same outcome.
 
Sinistar said:
Or even more yucky, what if it was equipped but a privacy block was requested by the pilot for flightaware tracks. His departure track could have been captured and no one would see it
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As someone who’s blocked all his tail numbers at the source, that’s not true, anyone with a ADSB would still see it and the FAA and .gov still sees it. Also when you entered his tail number into flightaware it would tell you no tracking as it’s a blocked N number.


3393RP said:
With all due respect, government agencies have limited SAR assets, and they almost always deploy those assets for as long it's practical to do so. Many times searches are called off when elapsed time precludes the possibility of survival.
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Except when they don’t, or when they deploy too late. As evidenced in the write up I quoted.

Spot or spider tracks FTW.
Loved ones and friend don’t look for a reason to turn down a flight if it pops up right before end of shift, after a steak was tossed on the grill, after they broke up with their chick, etc.
Its messed up, but it happens, end of the day you’re just part of the job to those people, well at least to the ones who are paid, lots of trust in unpaid volunteers who don’t even know you (CAP) too.
 
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Also just found this on my iPad about CAP searches.
 

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Wow, the 3rd stat regarding VFR with or without Flight Following is pretty humbling. I am surprised the Flight Following number is so high and makes me want to question it. Why would it take at least 18hrs to notification when on Flight Following? Seems like it should be no different than when on a instrument flight plan since you are talking to ATC and being tracked with radar???
 
3393RP said:
With all due respect, government agencies have limited SAR assets, and they almost always deploy those assets for as long it's practical to do so. Many times searches are called off when elapsed time precludes the possibility of survival.



A tale told many times before, always with the same outcome.
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That’s what I said. Both sar people came out, but that’s not enough to find the missing person on a timely manner, so ask for sar help but it’s probably not enough to find your loved one


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Sinistar said:
Wow, the 3rd stat regarding VFR with or without Flight Following is pretty humbling. I am surprised the Flight Following number is so high and makes me want to question it. Why would it take at least 18hrs to notification when on Flight Following? Seems like it should be no different than when on a instrument flight plan since you are talking to ATC and being tracked with radar???
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Flight following is an "as able" service, and there is no tracking requirement on ATC's part whatsoever. They may have VFR traffic filtered off their scope, and since you can theoretically squawk VFR and go on your merry way at any time, they may just assume you did so, especially if they're at all busy.

Unless you manage to get an emergency call out on their frequency before you descend below radio coverage, they may just not even know what happened, or care if they're busy. It is VERY different than being on an IFR flight plan.
 
‘3 miles from the departure airport’? Nighttime, possibly bad weather.

I see it mentioned he just shows a ‘student pilot’ certificate? Could be wrong, often is. If not, there may be a handful of problems before this flight left the ground.

Sorry for family & friends.
 
sourdough44 said:
‘3 miles from the departure airport’? Nighttime, possibly bad weather.
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How far does a 172 get in 178 seconds ?

I see it mentioned he just shows a ‘student pilot’ certificate? Could be wrong, often is. If not, there may be a handful of problems before this flight left the ground.
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That's a local cultural thing. If you want to fly, you buy the plane first and then take just enough lessons to solo. After that, you just keep flying on 90 day solo endorsements until you either bump into an FAA inspector while >50nm from your base or you get around to do the additional requirements for the checkride.
 
Wow.

I know I wouldn't have started looking that close to the airport. Its still hard to fathom taking 2 and half weeks to find a plane out here on the flatlands. Now thinking more about a Spot or Reslink(sp?).
 
Sinistar said:
Wow.

I know I wouldn't have started looking that close to the airport. Its still hard to fathom taking 2 and half weeks to find a plane out here on the flatlands. Now thinking more about a Spot or Reslink(sp?).
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Our Civil Air Patrol wing was involved in some of the search operations. Heavy snow hindered the search at the start. And WX has been crap most of the last week.

Most crashes happen within 5 miles of arrival/destination airport.

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