Well, I decided to do some more research into this, as it's pretty interesting. I think it verifies my earlier thoughts, as well.
A Microburst is <= 2.5 statute miles in diameter and is normally more like a mile in diameter. Vertical speed can be up to -6,000 fpm. Typical shear is about 60 knots (ie +30 followed by -30) but can be up to 120 knots, and the outflow can be as low as 300 AGL or as high as 1000 AGL.
First of all,
Vx is the wrong speed. As
@35 AoA said, this is all pointless if we hit the ground before we're out of the burst. Vx is the best *angle* of climb and is slower in both airspeed and climb than Vy. That means that we'll be in the burst longer and thus have a higher chance of hitting the ground, AND we'll hit the ground harder if we run out of altitude, AND we'll be closer to the stall when the shear hits. Bad idea all around.
So, for a "typical" microburst - Let's call it 1nm in diameter, -3000 fpm, and 60-knot shear up to 500 AGL, let's look at a couple scenarios.
First, if I hit it at a low IFR cruise altitude, say 3000 AGL. Let's say I see it coming and can adjust my airspeed accordingly before I actually hit it. At cruise power and attitude I'm going to be going down at 3000 fpm, but I'll be through it in 20 seconds. I lose 1000 feet of altitude.
If I instead choose to use Vy, I'll only be going down at maybe 1800 fpm, but it'll take me a bit over 34 seconds to transition and I'll lose 1,029 feet. Not a huge difference, but keep in mind I also have less kinetic energy at that point.
Now, let's say this microburst is centered halfway down a typical ILS (3º glideslope, 5nm/1600 AGL FAF to runway). In my Mooney, I would be flying the approach pretty close to my Vy of 105 KIAS. I would be above the outflow to start with, so let's go with a GS of 105 as well. Everything's hunky-dory until I'm 3nm from the runway, when I encounter the downdraft portion at 960 AGL. With instantaneous reaction time and no engine spool-up, let's say I can maintain Vy, which would normally get me maybe 1200 fpm at gross and average temps. Now I'm going down at 1800 fpm, so in about 15 seconds I'll be low enough to get into the outflow too.
Then, it's going to get mighty interesting - I'll be descending into the outflow, but I'm only going to have about 1/16 of a mile where I'll get the headwind, which might give me a bit of a boost but will also lower my groundspeed. Let's call that a wash for the moment in terms of altitude, putting me at 2.5nm from the runway at 450 AGL. I'm going to get the shift into tailwind territory and probably get right onto the edge of a stall before the airspeed recovers. Since everything is in transition during this period, it's tough to say exactly where I'll end up, but it's pretty safe to say I'm going to lose probably an extra 250 feet or so relative to everything else that was already going on in the process of regaining the lost airspeed, so now I'm at 200 AGL with only about 7 seconds until ground contact. I'm not gonna make it out of the downdraft, and I hit the ground around about 2.2 miles short of the runway. Provided the terrain is relatively flat and obstacle-free, this can be survivable. 1800 fpm is pretty close to the vertical speed of a Cirrus under a chute, and a pull at the end can arrest both vertical and forward speed. Definitely gonna need some luck here.
Now, let's say I shoot the approach at cruise power. That should get me about 180 knots. Since I'm still on the glideslope, nothing changes in the first two miles. , Then, I hit the downdraft, still at 960 AGL, but with a lot more speed. Say I recognize the microburst for what it is, and I've already done this analysis (which is kind of why I'm doing it, actually), and I decide to ride it out, same attitude, same speed as I had on the glideslope. I'll be going down at 3960 fpm (the vertical speed of the ILS at that airspeed plus the microburst speed). In 7 seconds, I'll be entering the outflow at 500 AGL and 2.85 nm from the runway. I'll be slowed down and it'll take another 8.4 seconds to hit the center of the microburst, but I won't make it there - I already will have hit the ground.
So, I'm gonna hit the ground either way... Best thing I can do is to have enough energy to pull into a brief 3000 fpm "climb" relative to the air around me at just the moment I'm about to hit the ground. Yikes.