Low time pilot learning about personal limits

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VictorValencia

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VictorValencia
I had an experience today with strong winds at my destination
and writing about it helps clarify the important lessons to be
learned from this.

I received my Sport Pilot Certificate a couple of months ago but
have not flown much since then due to weather, holidaze, etc.
I have a commercial glider rating as well but had not flown for
25+ years prior to starting my SP training. My personal limits
given my experience and the aircraft are 20 kts max headwind
and 12 knots max crosswind.

My plan for today was a short jaunt from KPAO to KCVH and
back (@ 50nm each way) in a C162 Skycatcher. KSFO
(16 nm north) TAF predicted winds 02020G25. KPAO winds
at departure time were VRB03. Winds were calm at destination.
The flight down was uneventful except for a bit more turbulence
than usual at 4000. After landing at KCVH and shutting down
I realized the wind had picked up so I added some fuel to make
sure I had plenty of reserves in case I needed to land somewhere
else upon return if the wind was worse back at KPAO. On the way
back ATIS for KPAO was 35024G30. Crap. The wind picked up
much faster than I expected. My plan was go to ahead and give
it a shot and if I could not land after 2 tries I would go somewhere
else. Amazingly enough the landing went fairly well. Certainly not
a work of art but good enough. Post-landing calculations revealed the
headwind was 15.5 kts and the crosswind was 18.5 kts. Yikes.
Probably not a huge deal for something heavier but with just
me and 1/2 tank of fuel in the C162 SkyFeather I was only at 1100 lbs.

So....problem #1 was that I willingly pushed way beyond my limits
although in my head I figured I could just give it a try and had an "out"
if things did not go well. In retrospect the "out" was only available
during the approach and not after losing control on the roll-out and
balling the plane up on the runway.

Problem #2 was that I took off in the first place. Even though I have lived
in the SF Bay area for 28 years I have not really started to understand
the local weather patterns until I started my training. Experience would
have told me that winds can pick up quickly. If winds are strong to the
north and the wind is _coming_ from the north I should have expected
them to be strong eventually in the south part of the bay as well. Duh.

Problem #3 was that after landing and packing up I thought "Hey, that
was not too shabby in a 162." I should never let a successful save from
a deteriorating weather situation let me believe I can do it again. Cockiness
can get me and/or my passengers killed.

So there are several immediate take-aways from this experience:

1) Stick to your personal limits.

2) When in doubt and out of radio range, use a cell phone before taking off
to call destination ATIS (in this case I was at an uncontrolled field). There
are also a myriad of other resources for checking destination weather
conditions before it is too late.

3) If you find early-on that conditions are not great at your destination
don't hesitate to just turn around and call it a day. I had that
chance when I was 30 nm south of KPAO and Norcal wanted to make
sure I had the latest ATIS from KPAO. I could have and should have
turned around at that point.

4) Watch out for get-there-itis. I had an appt soon after landing and
was feeling a bit stressed about making it.

I am glad everything came out OK but getting more and more annoyed
with myself that I had so many opportunities to make better decisions
but chose to ignore them.

Hopefully other low-time pilots out there will learn something from
this as I did.

Thanks for listening :)

Victor
 
Sounds like you did a good job, and I also liked your takeaways. I will say that the best way to learn and push your limits is to go out and do it (with an instructor being very preferable). It sounds like you did everything right besides putting yourself in that situation in the first place. You gave yourself lots of outs, and even decided that if you couldn't make it in two tries you would go somewhere else. I also commend you on your landing in 24g30 - that is a challenging scenario no matter the direction, or aircraft (but especially a sky catcher) and when you start getting into the 20s/30s crosswind correction becomes even more important.


Yes, it's probably not a good idea to launch in those conditions, but I do think it's important for pilots to be competent enough to NOT ball up an airplane should they find themselves in an uncomfortable situation. Obviously you can handle the aircraft well.


All things said you did a real fine job. Kudos, and remember that having an instructor on board who is comfortable with the weather should you decide to be a really brave pilot in the future isn't a bad idea.
 
Good takeaways Victor.
So many people imagine because they survived something it was safe and a good aviation decision.
I fly into Hollister a lot.
I call Lockheed Martin on my cell phone for the weather before I leave.
They provide me with winds, winds aloft, pilot reports, NOTAMs, TFRs and the big weather picture.
If I am flying round trip I also ask for an outlook briefing.
(800)992-7433
 
Crawl before you walk, walk before you run. Pushing personal limits is how we grow.
 
Your take always are good,did you feel comfortable during the flight/ landing? It's good to check and change your personal limits,but do it on your terms,without outside pressure.
 
If you felt that the plane was out of your control, or just barely in control, then I'd agree that you got lucky and that at your present skill level, you shouldn't try it again without an instructor.

But if you felt comfortably in control throughout the landing and rollout, if you always knew what to do next and the plane was responding as you expected and intended, then I'd say you're ready to increase your personal limits.
 
We do debriefs like this within our partnership in our plane as emails. It is somewhat cathartic and somewhat like a confessional. With the extent of your take aways, you either scared yourself (and learned from it) or are ready to start your CFI training. Keep safe.
 
One other error you made was ignoring the SIGMET for occasional severe turbulence below 18000. Those are not common here at all, and it's a sign something is awry.

And the storm yesterday afternoon had been predicted for some time. That's why I flew Monday instead at PAO.

Did you get a weather briefing? Do so for EVERY flight, even if just putting around the pattern. Not just ATIS/AWOS. The forecasts tend to overpredict, but SIGMETs of any flavor get my attention.
 
Victor: my experience has been that, if you're doing the analysis and asking the questions, you're probably an inherently safe decision-maker, and that your skills will develop (safely) as you gain experience.

Other than scrubbing the mission in the first place (which, with the knowledge you've gained just now, you might now do), I see nothing else you might have done differently. Taking on fuel so you had diversion options was a good indicator, too.

Fly safe! So many great destinations out there...
 
The Area Forecast Discussion is a good read before aviating...

DISCUSSION...AS OF 09:00 AM PST TUESDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
A COLD AIR AIR MASS HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA AND SNOW LEVELS HAVE
FALLEN TO AROUND 2500 FEET HOWEVER THERE IS ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF PRECIP IN THE FAR SOUTHERN POTION OF THE CWA. WINDS ARE
BEGINNING TO PICK UP THIS MORNING. SFO REPORTED A PEAK WIND OF 30
MPH IN THE LAST HOUR AND MT TAM IS REPORTING GUSTS TO 50 MPH.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY BEFORE DECREASING OVERNIGHT
INTO TOMORROW LEADING TO FREEZING TEMPERATURES. FORECAST IS ON
TRACK AT THIS TIME AND NO MAJOR UPDATES ARE ANTICIPATED THIS
MORNING.
 
You did good. Every time I find myself in a similar situation like that I feel lucky to have done it rather than confident, yet time and time again we will prove we are pilots I guess and we can handle such things until we cant. Knowing what is forecast will help the most.

btw. I like to use this web page on weather.gov for a good idea on the forecast winds on the ground. To get there go to weather.gov, enter your zipcode, then its a small graph on the bottom right hand side of the page. http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClic...122.4194&unit=0&lg=english&FcstType=graphical
 
Vance Breese said:
So many people imagine because they survived something it was safe and a good aviation decision.
Click to expand...

Good point that I've been aware of during my 38 years of flying. As I gained experience I survived a lot. Some things went into the category of "Never do that again" and some into the category of "Yes I can handle this". As I get older some things from the "Yes I can handle this" are moving to "I'd rather not". ;)
 
Stewartb said:
I learned about this link on this website. Touch any point on the planet for that point's conditions. Click on the settings and check the wind at altitude or surface. Look forward for desired forecasts. It's been very accurate for me.

https://www.windyty.com/?surface,wind,now,38.000,-97.000,4
Click to expand...

It's a real pet peeve when people pick something pretty over something right.

I clicked 0h UTC today -- the height of the windstorm -- and it said winds around the Bay were 12-16 knots. Not gusting to 30 like they really were. Over the mountains, it said 20 knots. They were actually gusting well over 50, enough to close four of the local roads with ripped up trees. It's even worse at 0300, as the site indicates the winds were subsiding, and they weren't.

This strongly suggests the site uses old data. Forecasts are updated four times a day, and are corrected for current observations each time.

The NWS forecast got it pretty good last night.

And if you click on the surface, it gives you winds NOW, not when you requested. So, if I was using that site yesterday morning for a go/no-go for an afternoon flight, it would have given me a terrible answer.
 
Last edited:
I fly a CTSW and my aircraft weight is similar to yours. In that circumstance I probably would not have taken off, but once in the air you do have to land at some point. :)

I probably would have done as you did, and tried the landing. But I would also have been spring-loaded for a go-around at any point in the approach. You clearly did well landing in that crosswind; I would not want to land my CT in 18+ crosswind component unless I really had to. I generally like 10 knots or less direct crosswind component, but have landed in 15kt.
 
MAKG1 said:
It's a real pet peeve when people pick something pretty over something right.
Click to expand...

Peeve? You have zero knowledge of my choices and why I make them. I offered an alternative that I've come to trust based on my own use. No criticism of any other sites or other folk's choices. If you want to take a condescending tone do it with somebody else. You have no basis to take your cheap shots at me.
 
Good analysis, good learning points. Thanks for the discussion. I personally find this post useful.

Cheers
 
Sounds like you handled it well. I have sometimes set out to expand my personal minimums by flying LSAs in gusty winds and turbulence, but come back with lessons in what not to do.
 
Stewartb said:
Peeve? You have zero knowledge of my choices and why I make them. I offered an alternative that I've come to trust based on my own use. No criticism of any other sites or other folk's choices. If you want to take a condescending tone do it with somebody else. You have no basis to take your cheap shots at me.
Click to expand...

Umm, you don't need to know WHY you made a choice to spot check it for reasonableness.

That's what I did, and your recommendation came up short enough to have caused an incorrect "go" decision. That's VERY serious.

Sorry you don't like the tone, but I absolutely will not pussyfoot around wrong safety-related recommendations.

Be careful about this. You can hurt a new pilot rather easily. And it's no longer your choice when you give it to someone else in a public place.
 
FAR 91.103

"Each pilot in command shall, before beginning a flight, become familiar with all
available information concerning that flight."

The best we can do is gather what we can find and make an informed decision.
Since I landed at my destination I should have taken that opportunity to gather
info about my return flight prior to takeoff. I think it's a good idea to use every
opportunity to update the state of the weather.

<sliding that one in my back pocket for future use>
 
The worst part about this story is that even though you are annoyed with yourself, you were able to land. You didn't die, you didn't bend tin, you didn't scare yourself S-less, and it feels really good to prove that you were able to handle it. Completely natural reaction, but one that is tough to prevent from snow balling. Choose wisely going forward and I'm glad nothing bad happened.
 
VictorValencia said:
FAR 91.103

"Each pilot in command shall, before beginning a flight, become familiar with all
available information concerning that flight."

The best we can do is gather what we can find and make an informed decision.
Since I landed at my destination I should have taken that opportunity to gather
info about my return flight prior to takeoff. I think it's a good idea to use every
opportunity to update the state of the weather.

<sliding that one in my back pocket for future use>
Click to expand...

If the FBO (Gavilan Aviation) is open at Hollister they have a very nice pilots lounge with a computer you can use.
Smart phones have all kinds of great apps for weather.
I have a dumb phone and call Lockheed Martin.
I like having a knowledgeable briefer fill me in because I am not that good at weather.
Sometimes the briefer is a pilot with local experience, sometimes not.
I like having the pertinent NOTAMS and TFRs.
Lockheed Martin will have a record of your call in case there is a question later.
 
Yeah, LockMart works, often even from places you wouldn't expect (ever been to Lee Vining?). They are physically located in Phoenix, so sometimes their local weather knowledge is off (but I've had few problems with that).

I prefer DUAT, but it piles on the BS with a lot of irrelevant data. For a VFR flight as a VFR-only pilot, I really don't care that some instrument transition has a new minimum altitude, or that an airport 40 miles off track has an unlit tower in the daytime. They have a decent app if you want to go that route, and Foreflight and Garmin Pilot can be configured to use it.

For AIRMETs/SIGMETs, ADDS seems to be the best source, though it doesn't log your access (so, it's in addition to DUAT, not instead).

While you are already underway, don't overlook contacting FSS or Flight Watch for an update. FSS can usually be reached at 122.2 (or check the nearest VOR), and Flight Watch at 122.0. Flight Watch is specifically for weather, FSS is more general. Ask for and give PIREPs.
 
SCCutler said:
Victor: my experience has been that, if you're doing the analysis and asking the questions, you're probably an inherently safe decision-maker, and that your skills will develop (safely) as you gain experience.

Other than scrubbing the mission in the first place (which, with the knowledge you've gained just now, you might now do), I see nothing else you might have done differently. Taking on fuel so you had diversion options was a good indicator, too.

Fly safe! So many great destinations out there...
Click to expand...

As usual Spike sums it up well.
 
VictorValencia said:
ATIS for KPAO was 35024G30.
Click to expand...

Post-landing calculations revealed the
headwind was 15.5 kts and the crosswind was 18.5 kts.
Click to expand...

I think you got these backwards.

I appreciate the challenge of a good xwind landing but I think the most I've actually faced was 25020G25 for 30 at SQL. It is my habit to make at least three landings any time I go up (sometimes I need that 90 day currency window), but on that day I was satisfied to prang it on once and go home :D
 
I was hoping to go out on Tuesday out at CCR for the specific reason of wanting to learn more about high wind situations but my old CFI was quick to point out the SIGMETs/AIRMETs/PIREPs that were all indicating that you'd have to be out of your mind to be flying in a small aircraft in that stuff. He was pretty darn clear over the phone: "If I was a single guy, I'd be up there in a heart beat, but now with a wife and kids, it just doesn't make any sense." Low level wind shear advisories were in effect from Oakland Center in the afternoon.

I think the best thing is to always get a thorough weather briefing (taking the aviation forecast description into serious consideration) and pay attention to how things are developing leading to your flight. Thanks for sharing your experience with us.
 
To be fair, there was an LLWS AIRMET on Monday, too, and it got my attention. I couldn't find significant reported winds (above 10 knots) at the surface anywhere in the region, and PAO was fairly busy. So I solicited a few PIREPs and they were all clean. So I went. No windshear, and what wind there was slowly died off.

I doubt I would have gone without the confirmation.

But I wouldn't mess with the SIGMET the next day, especially with the urgent PIREPs from 737s accompanying it.
 
VictorValencia said:
On the way
back ATIS for KPAO was 35024G30. Crap. The wind picked up
much faster than I expected. My plan was go to ahead and give
it a shot and if I could not land after 2 tries I would go somewhere
else. Amazingly enough the landing went fairly well. Certainly not
a work of art but good enough. Post-landing calculations revealed the
headwind was 15.5 kts and the crosswind was 18.5 kts. Yikes.
Probably not a huge deal for something heavier but with just
me and 1/2 tank of fuel in the C162 SkyFeather I was only at 1100 lbs.
Click to expand...

Don't mean to pile on, but I should point out that the C162 POH says max demo'd crosswind is 12kts and recommends against >22kts total wind. While these aren't technically limitations I'd be much more wary about exceeding them, which it looks like you are going to be doing in the future.

That said, one of the things I wonder about on the C162 in high winds are the flaps. Since there only exists a downward control cable and not an upward one, I wonder if a strong breeze on the tail (e.g. after turning and stopping onto the parallel and performing the after landing checklist) would cause the flaps to flap uncontrollably?
 
Cubs have flown for 60 years with only a down cable on the flaps. Not an issue.

If crosswinds are blowing on runways as wide as you guys use, land diagonally to reduce the Xwind component.
 
asicer said:
Don't mean to pile on, but I should point out that the C162 POH says max demo'd crosswind is 12kts and recommends against >22kts total wind. While these aren't technically limitations I'd be much more wary about exceeding them, which it looks like you are going to be doing in the future.

That said, one of the things I wonder about on the C162 in high winds are the flaps. Since there only exists a downward control cable and not an upward one, I wonder if a strong breeze on the tail (e.g. after turning and stopping onto the parallel and performing the after landing checklist) would cause the flaps to flap uncontrollably?
Click to expand...

I am fully aware of the POH "recommendations". During my training I
landed in a 12 kt crosswind and my instructor was surprised at how well I
handled it. I did not let that get to my head though. I knew it would be
a challenge and was ready to bail if things were not better closer to the
ground which fortunately they were.

Regarding the flaps you are absolutely correct. It did not happen
on the parallel taxiway but once I stopped to shut down the darn things
were flopping all over the place. It sounded terrible. It stopped
once I pushed the plane into it's parking slot since it's 90 degrees
to the prevailing wind.

I'm definitely going to be modifying my pre-flight planning to be more
thorough and learn how to better predict these situations. I don't plan
on flying in these sorts of conditions willingly in the future.

Victor
 
I'm surprised a little. I'd think a guy with glider experience would be the most qualified guy around to fly a lightweight airplane in the wind. I'm not belittling your story, I appreciate your honesty. FWIW there are days where I'll make 4/5/6 approaches and go-arounds hoping to catch the gusts right and put the plane on the ground. Sometimes it isn't warranted and I just go elsewhere. As long as the throttle's responsive a pilot has options. A long time ago an instructor gave me a bit of advice about flying in the wind. He told me I needed to be competent, not comfortable. There are times when I remind myself of that now. We all have our moments.

Happy 2015.
 
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