Launching at ILS mins?

lprellwitz

lprellwitz

Pre-takeoff checklist
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Grant and I are planning a trip from Chicago to Ft. Lauderdale tomorrow, launching at 8 am. TAF for ORD is reading as follows:

KORD 300123Z 3001/3106 17012KT 3SM BR OVC005
TEMPO 3001/3003 1SM -DZ BR OVC002
FM300300 17012KT 1SM -RA BR OVC002 WS017/21040KT
TEMPO 3003/3005 1/2SM -DZ FG VV001
FM300500 16012KT 1/2SM -DZ FG OVC002 WS019/21045KT
TEMPO 3005/3009 1/4SM -DZ FG VV001
This is typical of the forecast weather down to Tennessee. A warm front will aid in providing a layer that won't be as prone to icing, but the clouds are forecast to top out at a minimum of 10K feet, up to FL 240 in some places. No convective is forecast along the route, although there will be rain in some places.

So, the question is... debate the pros and cons of launching in the conditions above, with no VFR close by, and at least 3 hours of solid IFR in front of you (assume you have 7 hrs fuel on board, and 2 instrument-current pilots). How does the 'what if (engine problems, etc.)' factor play into your decision? And, if you say not to go, does that mean that flights over expanses of IFR/LIFR territory (but not at your planned destination) make a flight a no-go decision?

Please note that we don't want you to make the decision for us (that's our job, and we do have steel tube tix as backup if necessary :) ), but it's an interesting discussion topic.

Looking forward to posts, Leslie & Grant
 
Leslie, I can't begin to tell you how happy I am that I don't have to make those decisions any longer. Good luck, fly safe!

lprellwitz said:
Grant and I are planning a trip from Chicago to Ft. Lauderdale tomorrow, launching at 8 am. TAF for ORD is reading as follows:

KORD 300123Z 3001/3106 17012KT 3SM BR OVC005
TEMPO 3001/3003 1SM -DZ BR OVC002
FM300300 17012KT 1SM -RA BR OVC002 WS017/21040KT
TEMPO 3003/3005 1/2SM -DZ FG VV001
FM300500 16012KT 1/2SM -DZ FG OVC002 WS019/21045KT
TEMPO 3005/3009 1/4SM -DZ FG VV001
This is typical of the forecast weather down to Tennessee. A warm front will aid in providing a layer that won't be as prone to icing, but the clouds are forecast to top out at a minimum of 10K feet, up to FL 240 in some places. No convective is forecast along the route, although there will be rain in some places.

So, the question is... debate the pros and cons of launching in the conditions above, with no VFR close by, and at least 3 hours of solid IFR in front of you (assume you have 7 hrs fuel on board, and 2 instrument-current pilots). How does the 'what if (engine problems, etc.)' factor play into your decision? And, if you say not to go, does that mean that flights over expanses of IFR/LIFR territory (but not at your planned destination) make a flight a no-go decision?

Please note that we don't want you to make the decision for us (that's our job, and we do have steel tube tix as backup if necessary :) ), but it's an interesting discussion topic.

Looking forward to posts, Leslie & Grant
Click to expand...
 
Ive lauched before minimums before but VFR was pretty close and the layer was only a thousand feet thick. My biggest concern would be ice - if you start taking it on you have very few options.

No question about it - you're taking on excess risk. If a single thing goes bad you have very few options.

The biggest concern would be the ice. If I had no FIKI abilities and there were a chance of icing with no guaranteed way out I would stay on the ground.
 
Even with tops forecast to 10,000, some up to FL240, my concern is definitely ice whether or not the warm front keeps the temperature aloft warm enough. I'm not sure what your equipment is but without FIKI capability, it is definitely a concern since there are very few outs given a thick layer and quite a large area of IFR conditions.

I am not as concerned launching at mins knowing that the weather is indeed at/above mins at the departure airport or at a nearby field. I need to have somewhere to get in as an out if something goes bad. The TAF between 0500z and 0900z calls for 1/4 mile, indefinite 100 which could really end up being better than forecast (ie. 400-1) or worse (ie. indefinite 100 and RVR less than 1800). I would really hate to launch into the soup, have an issue (engine, fuel, avionics, etc), start building ice while being vectored to the ILS, and then shoot the approach to weather below mins (ie. RVR 1200) as my only choice. It reminds me too much of the guy who iced up like a popsicle going into Pontiac, MI a number of years ago (he landed successfully after a rather startling experience which easily could have turned deadly).

Knowing the actual conditions tomorrow morning may make my decision easier WRT launching at mins, but icing is still a big concern. With regard to flying over large areas of IFR/LIFR conditions, I definitely want to make sure there are appropriate options along my route of flight that will offer some sort of out. If every airport is below mins and something bad happens, I might end up in a bad situation which I could have prevented with some quick preflight planning.

Without multiple "outs" it's a no-go for me.

Now the fun part...you get to make the decision. I'll be traveling to Ft. Lauderdale tomorrow as well only it's the JetBlue A320 captain's call, not mine. I'll be in seat 19C.

Best,
Jason
 
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Winter flying in the Great Lakes region means having outs. Your description of the weather suggests you have none.
 
jesse said:
Ive lauched before minimums before but VFR was pretty close and the layer was only a thousand feet thick. My biggest concern would be ice - if you start taking it on you have very few options.

No question about it - you're taking on excess risk. If a single thing goes bad you have very few options.

The biggest concern would be the ice. If I had no FIKI abilities and there were a chance of icing with no guaranteed way out I would stay on the ground.
Click to expand...
I'm with Jesse. If you know absolutely for certain that ice won't be an issue I'd launch if I was comfortable overflying anything worse that MFVR (e.g. ceilings below 1000 AGL and/or vis below 3nm) in the airplane being used. You might also consider getting ready to go and launching only if the wx is still at or above landing mins. In an emergency you can always "cheat" a little, especially considering the approach/runway lights are muy bien and the runways are very big. Just know that if you lose your one and only engine down low the odds of an injury free outcome aren't great.
 
I'm with Wayne this looks like a tough decision.

The area forecast suggests pretty solid ifr for the beginning of the trip.

Code: 
IL
NWRN-WCNTRL...OVC010-015 TOP 040. VIS 3SM BR. OTLK...IFR CIG BR.
NERN-ECNTRL...OVC010-015 TOP FL200. VIS 3SM -RA BR. BECMG 0406
TOP 040. VIS 3SM -DZ BR. OTLK...IFR CIG BR.
SRN...BKN010-015 OVC040 LYRD FL200. VIS 3-5SM -RA BR. BECMG 0507
TOP 040. VIS 3SM -DZ BR. OTLK...IFR CIG BR. 18Z MVFR CIG.

.The freezing level and the icing potential forecast don't look too scary:
attachment.php
attachment.php

The icing airmets along your route (as predicted now) don't look too bad. see http://aviationweather.gov/products/gairmet/ (I couldn't grab that image easily)

I guess bottom line for me would be I don't see anything bad enough to tell you not to go, but I'm glad I am not doing it.

Joe
 

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I agree with Jesse on this. Also the Appalachians is an ice factory in PA not sure about the southern appalachains. I'm staying on the ground but thats me.
 
We won't make a final decision until tomorrow morning, but at this point it looks like we're going to do the steel tube. We definitely don't want get-there-itis making the decision for us. Unfortunately, this means we won't be able to take her Mom to Key West. :(
 
All across the Appalachians, there is a warm "nose" up to about 6,000. However terrain becomes a problem....look at the soundings in the AM for BWG and for TYS in the AM, they'll tell the story.....
 
Based on the information at the time of your posting - I wouldn't go. As Ron notes, you have no "outs".

If the forecast in the morning looks different, that may be another story. But don't let a slight improvement in conditions encourage you to take a large amount of risk. Hope kills GA pilots.
 
No icing? No problem. What's the TAFs at destination?
 
I see two different issues here from a decision perspective.

First, the conditions at the point of departure - I'd want at least minimums for the approach with which you are most comfortable.

Second, and more troubling: low IFR for a long way on your route. I won't launch into this kind of conditions - I always like to have a rock-solid VFR or easy-approach out.

BTW: I once launched into conditions lower than approach mins at the point of departure (vis was poor enough that I had to give position reports while taxiing). I had a loooong runway, and a parallel I could have bailed-out to, was on top within three minutes and had great VFR not far away. All that said, I don't think I'd do it again - I just did not like what went through my mind during that initial climb.

Best of luck on your decision - let us know!
 
I would require a takeoff alternate within a reasonable distance in the event of a problem. I have learned the hard way on that .
 
lprellwitz said:
Grant and I are planning a trip from Chicago to Ft. Lauderdale tomorrow, launching at 8 am. TAF for ORD is reading as follows:

KORD 300123Z 3001/3106 17012KT 3SM BR OVC005
TEMPO 3001/3003 1SM -DZ BR OVC002
FM300300 17012KT 1SM -RA BR OVC002 WS017/21040KT
TEMPO 3003/3005 1/2SM -DZ FG VV001
FM300500 16012KT 1/2SM -DZ FG OVC002 WS019/21045KT
TEMPO 3005/3009 1/4SM -DZ FG VV001
This is typical of the forecast weather down to Tennessee. A warm front will aid in providing a layer that won't be as prone to icing, but the clouds are forecast to top out at a minimum of 10K feet, up to FL 240 in some places. No convective is forecast along the route, although there will be rain in some places.

So, the question is... debate the pros and cons of launching in the conditions above, with no VFR close by, and at least 3 hours of solid IFR in front of you (assume you have 7 hrs fuel on board, and 2 instrument-current pilots). How does the 'what if (engine problems, etc.)' factor play into your decision? And, if you say not to go, does that mean that flights over expanses of IFR/LIFR territory (but not at your planned destination) make a flight a no-go decision?

Please note that we don't want you to make the decision for us (that's our job, and we do have steel tube tix as backup if necessary :) ), but it's an interesting discussion topic.

Looking forward to posts, Leslie & Grant
Click to expand...
Assuming you're not flying a de-ice twin. Anything less would be an easy decision for me: NO go. Why? With the above description, if you're fine, you're fine; if you're not, you're dead. Sorry to be so blunt.
 
EdFred said:
No icing? No problem. What's the TAFs at destination?
Click to expand...
The issue is the first half or so.

Currently:
----------------------------------------
METAR KORD 04:51Z 12/30/10
KORD 300451Z 17011KT 2 1/2SM -RA BR OVC004
01/01 A2979 RMK AO2 SLP096 P0000 T00110011

TAF CHICAGO O'HARE , IL
KORD 300355Z 3004/3106 17012KT 1SM -RA BR OVC004 WS017/21040KT
TEMPO 3004/3005 1/2SM -DZ FG VV002
FM300500 16012KT 1SM -DZ BR OVC002 WS019/21045KT
TEMPO 3005/3009 1/2SM -DZ FG VV001=


----------------------------------------
TAF CHICAGO/DUPAGE , IL
KDPA 300355Z 3004/3024 15012KT 1SM -RA BR OVC002 WS017/21040KT
TEMPO 3004/3005 1/2SM -DZ FG VV001
FM300500 15012KT 1/2SM -DZ FG OVC002 WS019/21045KT
TEMPO 3005/3009 1/4SM -DZ FG VV001=
Click to expand...
And, seeing as it's ORD, they're not going to be pessimistic with the forecast, since that would adversely affect the airlines.

Destination's not a problem. And the AF doesn't seem in line with the TAFs we've seen around the departure point. OVC010-015 is a big difference from "FM300500 15012KT 1/2SM -DZ FG OVC002 WS019/21045KT"

Refueling midpoint around here (KCEU tentatively):
----------------------------------------
TAF ATHENS , GA
KAHN 292330Z 3000/3024 09003KT P6SM SCT200
FM301200 09005KT P6SM OVC100
FM301800 12008KT P6SM BKN070
FM302300 10005KT P6SM BKN040=


----------------------------------------
TAF COLUMBIA , SC
KCAE 300230Z 3003/3024 VRB03KT P6SM SCT250
FM301400 VRB03KT P6SM BKN150=
Click to expand...
And final destination:
----------------------------------------
TAF FT LAUDERD/EXEC , FL
KFXE 292329Z 3000/3024 15003KT P6SM SCT045
FM300700 11004KT P6SM BKN050
FM300800 12005KT P6SM SCT050
FM301900 11009KT P6SM BKN050=
Click to expand...
And the latest AF is actually not looking too bad. Looks as if we would likely be on top for at least some of the way.
000
FAUS43 KKCI 300245
FA3W
CHIC FA 300245
SYNOPSIS AND VFR CLDS/WX
SYNOPSIS VALID UNTIL 302100
CLDS/WX VALID UNTIL 301500...OTLK VALID 301500-302100

IL
NERN-ECNTRL...OVC010-015 TOP FL200. VIS 3SM -RA BR. BECMG 0406
TOP 040. VIS 3SM -DZ BR. OTLK...IFR CIG BR.
.
IN
OVC010-015 TOP FL200. VIS 3-5SM -RA BR. TIL 06Z OCNL -FZRA NRN
1/4. BECMG 1013 TOP 040 THRUT. VIS 3SM -DZ BR. OTLK...IFR CIG BR.
18Z MVFR CIG SRN 1/4.
.
KY
CNTRL...OVC010-020 TOP FL200 NRN SXNS. BKN040 OVC070 TOP FL230
SRN SXNS. OCNL -RA THRUT. BECMG 0508 OVC010-020 THRUT. VIS 3SM -
RA BR. OTLK...MVFR CIG RA BR.

------------
NC
MTNS...SCT120 BKN CI. BECMG 1012 BKN120 LYRD FL240. OTLK...VFR.
PIEDMONT...SCT150 BKN CI. OTLK...VFR.
CSTL PLAINS...BKN CI. BECMG 0609 SCT150 BKN CI. OTLK...VFR.
.
SC
MTNS...SCT-BKN CI. BECMG 0608 SCT150 BKN CI. OTLK...VFR.
PIEDMONT...SCT-BKN CI. BECMG 0810 SCT150 BKN CI. OTLK...VFR.
.
GA
NRN...SCT035 BKN CI. BECMG 0609 SCT-BKN130-150 LYRD FL250.
OTLK...VFR..17Z RA.
CNTRL...FEW040 SCT-BKN CI. BECMG 0608 SCT150 BKN CI. OTLK...VFR.
SRN...SCT-BKN CI. BECMG 0710 SCT130-150 BKN CI. OTLK...VFR.
.
FL
NRN PEN...SCT-BKN CI. BECMG 0709 SCT150 BKN CI. OTLK...VFR.
CNTRL PEN...SCT-BKN CI. BECMG 0608 SCT025-030 SCT150 BKN CI.
OTLK...VFR.
SRN PEN...SCT-BKN040 TOPS 060. BECMG 0609 BKN035. OTLK...VFR.
Click to expand...
A few red flags in there, but not for the times we'll be flying. It's IL, IN, and to a lesser extent KY that are concerns. And the temps look alright:
DATA BASED ON 300000Z REQUESTED
VALID 310000Z FOR USE 1800-0600Z. TEMPS NEG ABV 24000 ALTITUDE
FT 3000 6000 9000 12000 18000 24000 30000 34000 39000 7000
JOT 2150 2240+08 2340+03 2343-04 2358-16 2472-26 237341 237551 237360 2240+06
IND 2051 2138+06 2332+02 2435-02 2544-14 2556-26 245342 254851 266561 2136+04
LOU 2045 2232+05 2328+00 2528-01 2737-13 2642-26 263942 273652 275560 2230+03
TYS 2029 2221+05 2524+00 2626-02 2931-13 2934-25 293242 303352 293961 2322+03
GSP 2213 2220+05 2622+01 2820-04 3035-13 3140-25 313342 323252 314360 2320+03
Click to expand...
If I believed the AF instead of the TAFs and METARS, I'd be good to go! I think we would probably be able to do it with no problems. But probably isn't a word I'm comfortable with in this context, and I think I've already pulled the trigger in my mind that we'll go the AL Tube route. Southwest isn't too bad.

We'll re-evaluate in a few hours, by which point I'll probably decide that I'm too tired from watching the weather all night to actually launch in this! :yinyang:
 
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The fact that the WX even raises concerns for you, if it were me, and YMMV, I'm gonna fly the tube and enjoy the rays in FLA! But that's just me...enjoy the sunshine
 
Mornin', all. We made the decision to go the steel tube - the weather was on the edge for me last night, and this morning I saw more than a few 'reindeer games' being played out with:

- Inconsistent TAFs: I can have this
TAF CHICAGO O'HARE , IL
KORD 301133Z 3012/3118 17012KT 3SM -DZ BR OVC004 WS020/20045KT
TEMPO 3012/3015 1SM -DZ BR OVC003
FM301500 17015KT 3SM -DZ BR OVC005 WS020/20045KT
FM301800 17016KT 4SM -DZ BR OVC005 WS020/20050KT
FM310600 19010KT 2SM -RA BR OVC004 WS020/20050KT=


or this

TAF CHICAGO/DUPAGE , IL
KDPA 301133Z 3012/3112 15012KT 1/2SM -DZ FG VV001 WS020/20040KT
TEMPO 3012/3015 2SM BR OVC003
FM301500 16014KT 2SM -DZ BR OVC003 WS015/20045KT
FM301800 17016KT 3SM -DZ BR OVC005 WS020/20050KT=

Where is the inconsistency, you ask? about 5 minutes ago, when the TAF for DPA that was amended at 10Z went out, that temporary line read '1/2SM FG'. Interesting how that one snapped back up.....



- TAFs and AFs making no sense together. both TAFs were originally amended at 10Z. The AF, also written at 10Z, reads as follows:

IL
N HLF...OVC015 TOPS 060. VIS 3SM -DZ BR. OTLK...IFR CIG BR
THRUT...DZ NRN SXNS.


So, lessee here.... OVC015 vs. OVC004 / VV001 - hmmm..... yeah, ok, they're close enough I guess :rolleyes2:


Too much inconsistency here; while I'd love to fly there (got a new flight gear bag for Christmas and everything), that weather '6th sense' is sending out a few too many blips for me; hellooo, Southwest Airlines....

I will say that, while I appreciate the discussion on this thread, the discussion in the house has been interesting as well - one ready to cut the losses and pack the bag, the other looking at TAFs and voicing "it should be up to 500 foot ceilings by 10 am - what information is there on icing?" a little longer.....
 
Based on METARS and PIREPS this morning. Tops near Chicago 046, negative icing, and VFR as close as Danville. Have fun on the cattle car.
 
lprellwitz said:
Great - thanks Ed, for making me feel bad about being conservative.
Click to expand...

You also have to remember, I have done 0 vis take-offs, flown night IMC over Lake Michigan, also crossed it at <1500 AWL and landed at Gaston's and 6Y9 at night. The only two things I don't mess with are ice and thunderstorms. When I saw Joe's freezing level chart and icing possibility at 7,000 I said that I would launch if it were my flight.

I look at it like this, if something happens that I have to return to the airport, even if the mins are below publish mins. I don't give a crap, I am landing if there is an ILS nearby.
 
CHIC FA 301045
SYNOPSIS AND VFR CLDS/WX
SYNOPSIS VALID UNTIL 310500
CLDS/WX VALID UNTIL 302300...OTLK VALID 302300-310500
ND SD NE KS MN IA MO WI LM LS MI LH IL IN KY


IL
N HLF...OVC015 TOPS 060. VIS 3SM -DZ BR. OTLK...IFR CIG BR
THRUT...DZ NRN SXNS.
S HLF...OVC015-020 TOPS 045. OCNL VIS 3-5SM BR. OTLK...MVFR CIG
THRUT EXC IFR CIG NRN SXNS.
.
IN
S QTR...OVC040 TOPS 060. 18Z OVC030. OTLK...MVFR CIG.
RMNDR...OVC015-020 TOPS 060. VIS 3SM BR. OTLK...IFR CIG BR.
.
KY
WRN...OVC030 TOPS 050. OTLK...MVFR CIG.
CNTRL...BKN030 LYRD 150. SCT -SHRA. BECMG 1316 OVC040 TOPS 060.
OTLK...VFR.
ERN...BKN050-060 LYRD FL250. OCNL -RA. 16Z BKN060 OVC110 TOPS
130. OTLK...VFR.
 
EdFred said:
IL
N HLF...OVC015 TOPS 060. VIS 3SM -DZ BR. OTLK...IFR CIG BR
THRUT...DZ NRN SXNS.
S HLF...OVC015-020 TOPS 045. OCNL VIS 3-5SM BR. OTLK...MVFR CIG
THRUT EXC IFR CIG NRN SXNS.
.
IN
S QTR...OVC040 TOPS 060. 18Z OVC030. OTLK...MVFR CIG.
RMNDR...OVC015-020 TOPS 060. VIS 3SM BR. OTLK...IFR CIG BR.
.
KY
WRN...OVC030 TOPS 050. OTLK...MVFR CIG.
CNTRL...BKN030 LYRD 150. SCT -SHRA. BECMG 1316 OVC040 TOPS 060.
OTLK...VFR.
ERN...BKN050-060 LYRD FL250. OCNL -RA. 16Z BKN060 OVC110 TOPS
130. OTLK...VFR.
Click to expand...
And most importantly, it's above freezing up to at least 7000 MSL, and in most places 8000, over the entire route per the rucsoundings site. Departure is well above minimums at the moment (all MVFR through the area) and it's even VFR as close as Joliet.

It looks like a climb through a pretty thick layer, then could be on top at 7000 part of the way, or in and out of the clouds. But, if someone is not comfortable with that much IMC or doesn't trust the forecasts (probably crossing the Appalachians is where it gets most critical), then no-go is the right decision.
 
lprellwitz said:
Great - thanks Ed, for making me feel bad about being conservative.
Click to expand...
Leslie,

I have yet to feel bad about scrubbing a flight to be safe.

For every time the real weather turns out to be a bit better than forecast and I could have done the flight, there is another time the weather is a bit worse and it would have been a real adventure of the kind I like to avoid.


Joe
 
Listen to Chicago Approach to see what the traffic is reporting. That info may make the difference and it will not be in the AWS or FSS briefings or pireps in a timely manner, if at all.
 
lprellwitz said:
Great - thanks Ed, for making me feel bad about being conservative.
Click to expand...
I suspect that Ed will be the only one pulling your chain for taking the conservative option, but we all know he's still young enough to be immortal.
 
A moot point now, as we're in the terminal, waiting for the pilot seat to be replaced. With the information we had 5 hours ago, I think we made the right decision for us.
 
The decision to not fly is never wrong. It can't kill you. And those ceilings for quite a ways left little in the way of options if something goes wrong with the plane. Electrical problems in the 182 last night caused us to land early. Clear and a million, so it didn't much matter, but I wouldn't have wanted to be depending on the ILS for long. We were shedding loads as it was, keeping one radio turned on. VMC - no problem. Low IMC and the pucker factor would have been a bit more than we would have wanted.

Enjoy your time in FL.
 
lprellwitz said:
Great - thanks Ed, for making me feel bad about being conservative.
Click to expand...
Don't feel bad! :nono:

To paraprhrase the old adage: "Better to be in an aisle seat getting jostled every time someone goes to the lav, wishing you were flying yourself, than to be flying yourself, wishing you were in an aisle seat getting jostled every time someone goes to the lav!" :D

Fight the wx and you are almost guaranteed to lose, but of course if you choose not to fight, Nature will probably mock you with fair conditions. This is just how it is. :dunno:
 
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