John F Kennedy Jr’s style was sloppy

[dbahn]

JFK Jr. fell into a common trap. I use his accident as a quintessential example of that trap but he didn't do anything particularly egregious. (That's not an excuse for his actions and their result, but rather an explanation.)

And there's a bigger trap at play. People who attribute his accident to stupidity, and who don't feel themselves to be stupid, don't learn much from his accident and don't believe that they could make a similar error.

(It's a "false immunity".)

 

[nauga]

What I found somewhat ironic is that the writer in the fashion magazine would not understand there could be a second, more morbid, meaning of their title.

I find it somewhat ironic that you apparently didn't understand that there could be a second, less complimentary, meaning of your post.

Nauga,
scoped

 

[PeterNSteinmetz]

So I was at the gliderport today and heard the following regarding JFK, Jr. and his piloting skills. This was told to me by a CFI who stated that he knew the CFI-G with whom JFK, Jr. was training to fly gliders. This CFI-G was located in New England. Evidently the CFI knew the other CFI well.

So this is coming third hand so please use appropriate caution in interpreting, noting that no glider training for JFK, Jr. is listed in the NTSB report on the accident. Of course neither is training for other types of aircraft, such as powered parachutes or ultralights.

JFK Jr’s CFI-G apparently found him to be a terrible student. He would fail to pay attention and note risks so badly that after some time trying to train him, the CFI-G told him he would not train him any further, that he should not be a pilot, and that he would no longer be allowed to train in gliders at their facility.

I don’t believe this aspect of this has been reported elsewhere previously.

 

[PeterNSteinmetz]

The reason I ran across this story is that I was asking people what they knew about the JFK Jr crash. In general, younger people knew basically nothing about it. People over 50 generally had a recollection that he was not instrumented rated and was flying at night in marginal weather and crashed, killing several other people.

 

[Doc Holliday]

So I was at the gliderport today and heard the following regarding JFK, Jr. and his piloting skills. This was told to me by a CFI who stated that he knew the CFI-G with whom JFK, Jr. was training to fly gliders. This CFI-G was located in New England. Evidently the CFI knew the other CFI well.

So this is coming third hand so please use appropriate caution in interpreting, noting that no glider training for JFK, Jr. is listed in the NTSB report on the accident. Of course neither is training for other types of aircraft, such as powered parachutes or ultralights.

JFK Jr’s CFI-G apparently found him to be a terrible student. He would fail to pay attention and note risks so badly that after some time trying to train him, the CFI-G told him he would not train him any further, that he should not be a pilot, and that he would no longer be allowed to train in gliders at their facility.

I don’t believe this aspect of this has been reported elsewhere previously.

Probably the reason it hasn't been reported elsewhere is it's hearsay.

 

[dbahn]

Probably the reason it hasn't been reported elsewhere is it's hearsay.

And it conflicts with some of the testimony by other instructors who worked with him. I've seen airline pilots who were not particularly good glider students. I'm not sure how much to infer from the CFI-G's statements.

 

[olasek]

if JFK did not have a macho attitude.

I see nothing "macho" here to decide on a 'solo' flight.
Actually I recall his pilot record was criticized as too much dependence on instructors.
The weather was VFR. I see no "bad" decision here either. Whether he was night current I don't recall, I suspect he was, he was very much a pilot by the "book".

 

[PeterNSteinmetz]

Probably the reason it hasn't been reported elsewhere is it's hearsay.

Definitely 3rd hand so much salt required. I thought it was an interesting report though.

 

[PeterNSteinmetz]

I see nothing "macho" here to decide on a 'solo' flight.
Actually I recall his pilot record was criticized as too much dependence on instructors.
The weather was VFR. I see no "bad" decision here either. Whether he was night current I don't recall, I suspect he was, he was very much a pilot by the "book".

Might be interesting to review the NTSB report and the MZeroA video as linked above.

I don’t believe he was night current for carrying passengers. No flight plan filed or weather briefing obtained, just a check on the METAR at the destination.

A fair amount of poor decision making, including the final decision to continue a night VFR flight with no visual horizon without being an instrument rated pilot.

 

[olasek]

continue a night VFR flight with no visual horizon without being an instrument rated pilot.

VFR-only pilots routinely fly at night and often don't have any horizon (I did a few such flights myself). Nothing illegal about that.
He flew may times between both airports, sometimes at night, some even in IMC (or simulated IMC) with instructor.
If he himself in his gut feeling wasn't capable of such flight - we don't know.
NTSB mentions nothing about his decision to fly that night as a contributing factor.

 

[PeterNSteinmetz]

VFR-only pilots routinely fly at night and often don't have any horizon (I did a few such flights myself). Nothing illegal about that.

I guess I don’t know the exact regulatory language, but doesn’t VFR flight require having a visual horizon, at least to do so safely.

From the NTSB report of probable cause “The National Transportation Safety Board determines the probable cause(s) of this accident to be: The pilot's failure to maintain control of the airplane during a descent over water at night, which was a result of spatial disorientation. Factors in the accident were haze, and the dark night.”

Strikes me as mentioning darkness as a factor, though I suppose it does not explicitly mention the decision explicitly.

I will defer to the opinion of CFIs here as to the safety of flying at night without visual indication of the horizon.

 

[PeterNSteinmetz]

Seems there is an analysis at AOPA about this crash - https://www.aopa.org/news-and-media/all-news/2010/july/pilot/10-mistakes-jfk-jr-made

And a book about it - https://www.amazon.com/JFK-Jr-years-Pilots-Perspective/dp/0966847229/ref=sr_1_3

 

[olasek]

I guess I don’t know the exact regulatory language, but doesn’t VFR flight require having a visual horizon,
.

No. No requirement for visual horizon, you must have 3 mile visibility, that is all. “To do it safely” that may be your own safety factor but it has nothing to do with regulations. By using your own “safety” factors you may refuse to fly at night or fly over mountains with single engine but it has nothing to do with regulations. Are you a pilot licensed by FAA? This is a fairly rudimentary knowledge. I am guessing you might be from Europe, they have completely different approach there to VFR at night from what I heard, stronger regulations.

 

[Palmpilot]

And there's a bigger trap at play. People who attribute his accident to stupidity, and who don't feel themselves to be stupid, don't learn much from his accident and don't believe that they could make a similar error.

(It's a "false immunity".)

I wonder how many of us can think of at least one instance when they survived by luck. (I know I'm one of them. )

 

[Palmpilot]

I guess I don’t know the exact regulatory language, but doesn’t VFR flight require having a visual horizon, at least to do so safely.

Safety depends on the abilities of the pilot, and his or her correctly assessing those abilities in relation to the challenge being taken on. As for VFR flight rules, see below.

 

[Clip4]

If a guy named Mark Smith was the pilot in this accident 20 years ago, none of us would remember it.

 

[timwinters]

Probably the reason it hasn't been reported elsewhere is it's hearsay.

 

[steingar]

The fact that JFK jr. crashed a perfectly good airplane in good VFR weather would in and of itself suggest he wasn’t the best pilot in the world. I described how I fell into the same trap as him, but I’m here to write about it. That would suggest I’m a better pilot than him, and I’m probably the worst pilot on this board.

 

[timwinters]

A fair amount of poor decision making, including the final decision to continue a night VFR flight with no visual horizon without being an instrument rated pilot.

red herring...there's nothing wrong with this if the pilot has received proper training.

I had 20 hours or so of "night IFR" before getting my instrument ticket. Flew from Harrison AR to Hot Springs for dinner many times. Long stretches of nothing along that trip. I'd tell my wife, "you look for traffic...I'm looking at instruments."

AND!!!

OMG!!!

in a '57 C172 with a venturi operated vacuum system. I should be dead!!!

But, I was taught to FLY by my primary instructor. Thanks Colonel Al!

I guess I don’t know the exact regulatory language, but doesn’t VFR flight require having a visual horizon, at least to do so?

wow. I guess you also didn't know that a VFR pilot can legally log IFR flight time on a moonless night.

 

[dbahn]

I will defer to the opinion of CFIs here as to the safety of flying at night without visual indication of the horizon.

The fact is that he HAD a visible horizon for most of the flight, much of which was along the coast with lights visible below. As he got over the water he had a haze layer below his cruising altitude with clear air above. In that situation even just the stars will provide enough of a visible horizon over the haze layer. During the descent, however, that was lost and spatial disorientation ensued. Again, had he anticipated that he could simply have remained at altitude until over the lights of the island and descended visually from there.

 

[PeterNSteinmetz]

red herring...there's nothing wrong with this if the pilot has received proper training.

...

I guess you also didn't know that a VFR pilot can legally log IFR flight time on a moonless night.

Please note the full qualifier I had, “at least to do so SAFELY”. And so please don’t misquote me in order to try and justify an assumption about my knowledge - thanks.

Agreed that more precisely there is no regulatory requirement for a visual horizon for VFR flight at night.

It appears in terms of regs he may have also violated the requirement for night currency carrying passengers (though his most recent logbooks were not available).

 

[PeterNSteinmetz]

I am guessing you might be from Europe, they have completely different approach there to VFR at night from what I heard, stronger regulations.

I actually enjoy night flight a fair amount, but have only have much of it after obtaining my instrument rating, so hadn’t carefully parsed the regulatory issue of VFR night flight without a visual horizon. But now I have - thanks.

 

[timwinters]

One of those things you can do per reg that is probably just not a good idea I guess.

ummmm...no...not even close. The key is training and proficiency. Quit painting with your broad brush.

 

[PeterNSteinmetz]

ummmm...no...not even close. The key is training and proficiency. Quit painting with your broad brush.

I would think we would agree that a non-instrument rated pilot choosing to fly at night without a visible horizon is in general not a good idea, but perhaps you disagree?

I suppose if one has specific training on how to do this by reference to instruments, similar to what is required in other countries for this type of flight, it is safe and reasonable.

But let me ask your opinion another way, would you generally advise VFR only pilots to fly at night without a visible horizon? Or would you suggest additional training?

Please also note that I revised my response while you were responding to note that you misquoted me prior to making an assumption about my knowledge level.

 

[PeterNSteinmetz]

And with regard to this specific accident, do you think it was a reasonable decision for JFK, Jr, given his training level, to continue this flight in these conditions? And he just got unlucky? Or should he perhaps have diverted or not taken off knowing he would be flying at night over water?

 

[dbahn]

But let me ask your opinion another way, would you generally advise VFR only pilots to fly at night without a visible horizon? Or would you suggest additional training?

To answer the question about safety, no it's not safe unless you are instrument competent in that situation. You don't need to be instrument rated, just competent - which may actually exclude some instrument rated pilots.

I think for the VFR-only pilot night flying should be very selective, i.e. clear nights over lighted terrain with no clouds or haze along the route. If you inadvertently fly into moisture there can be a sudden and highly distracting effect of the exterior aircraft lights reflecting from the clouds along with reflections from inside the plane onto the windshield, any of which can create the illusion of a false horizon, which may be worse than no horizon at all.

I'm just guessing that's what happened to JFK, Jr. and it precipitated a series of corrections that were nearly "aerobatic" in nature. It must have been a very frightening flight at that point for him and his passengers.

 

[timwinters]

And so please don’t misquote me in order to try and justify an assumption about my knowledge - thanks.

That was accidental when removing extraneous text on an iPad...sorry.

as far as the rest of your continued blabbering...I've already clearly stated my position. But I'd didn't learn to fly at a puppy mill.

(and the exact opposite is true of my instrument training. My instructor was a short-cut taking loose cannon. Didn't really understand that at the time but came to realize it. I've taken a LOT of follow up training to try to make up for the k-mart style initial I-training.)

And with regard to this specific accident, do you think it was a reasonable decision for JFK, Jr, given his training level, to continue this flight in these conditions? And he just got unlucky? Or should he perhaps have diverted or not taken off knowing he would be flying at night over water?

The point being, YOU don't know what his training level was unless you were sitting in the backseat DURING all his training. Otherwise, it's all speculation on your part.

What I think is most important, is for each pilot to know his/her limitations and to diligently attempt to stay within the confines of them. Period, exclamation point.

 

[PeterNSteinmetz]

That was accidental when removing extraneous text on an iPad...sorry.

... But I'd didn't learn to fly at a puppy mill.

(and the exact opposite is true of my instrument training. My instructor was a short-cut taking loose cannon. Didn't really understand that at the time but came to realize it. I've taken a LOT of follow up training to try to make up for the k-mart style initial I-training.)

Thanks for explaining the error.

Good point about what really matters is the level of actual proficiency, the rating itself doesn’t mean you are proficient. Luckily for me my instructor was pretty good about actually training to a decent standard. By contrast, I am not particularly proficient now and will need some dual, having recently had a longer break.

 

[mryan75]

At the risk of going against the grain, I would contend that JFK, Jr. was an "average" pilot, not a particularly sloppy one (if that's the inference, about "ironic") and I suspect that his manner of dress was more "rebellious" than it was careless. There are a lot of righteous pilots who love to characterize his accident an act of "stupidity" or "wealthy arrogance" or one of many other derogatory terms, but I think it related primarily to his failure to understand how the haze at night, while not IMC, would require IFR skills for the descent. Having flown into KMVY the following day, before the wreckage was even located, it was easy to see how ground reference would have been lost at night.

I'm convinced that had he realized the impending hazard he could have simply remained at altitude until he was actually over the island, then circled down to a safe altitude and landing in the VMC conditions.

I think it was a completely typical GA accident. It was essentially VFR into IMC. Poor decision-making and compounding problems and 3 lives lost. There's really nothing remarkable about his accident whatsoever, save for who it happened to.

 

[PeterNSteinmetz]

The point being, YOU don't know what his training level was unless you were sitting in the backseat DURING all his training. Otherwise, it's all speculation on your part.

There is really no reason to take this personally or make it a set of personal remarks. These type of remarks tend to be interpreted hostilely on public fora so I try and avoid them.

Yes, of course this is speculative. And as noted by others, hindsight is always 20/20.

We do know roughly his level of training and there is no evidence that he had specifically received a high level of training for night instrument flight, though he had done a fair amount of night flying. His CFII had stated he was reasonably proficient at unusual attitude recoveries.

I have not parsed this in as much detail as others here, but my current impression based on the available data would tend to agree with the AOPA assessment that JFK, Jr made a number of errors which could have been avoided. He appeared to have been suffering from anxiety and get there itis and made some bad decisions which cost the life of himself and his passengers.

Seems like a subject which is debated on both sides here on PoA, and there are grounds for reasonable people to have different assessments. So I am interested to hear other opinions, thanks.

 

[timwinters]

There is really no reason to take this personally or make it a set of personal remarks. These type of remarks tend to be interpreted hostilely on public fora so I try and avoid them.

I was responding to what YOU said and the assertions and inferences that YOU were making. If it offends you that I use the term YOU then I'm sorry. No offense intended.

What I'm shaking my head at is your continued walking in circles like a dog that's getting ready to lay down and that you refuse to look outside of, much less consider, anything outside of your little circle.

We do know roughly his level of training and there is no evidence that he had specifically received a high level of training for night instrument flight

"high level of training". Ummm...no...both instrument work and night work are required parts of the PPL curriculum...and it doesn't take much more that the required minimum to become relatively proficient at it. And, moonless night "IFR" is the easiest instrument flying you will ever do. It's almost always dead calm and beautiful...far removed from the conditions of flying in the clouds on a spring/summer day.

As an aside: When I was working across the south about 10-12 years ago, I took many legal VFR trips during the day that were actually IFR. The haze in the summertime down there can get to be like flying thru a bowl of skim milk...no reference to the horizon...no reference to anything...and could only see the ground when looking straight down. Every bit as challenging as moonless night flying, moreso actually.

I think it was a completely typical GA accident. It was essentially VFR into IMC. Poor decision-making and compounding problems and 3 lives lost. There's really nothing remarkable about his accident whatsoever, save for who it happened to.

That's likely as accurate and succinct of an analysis as there will be in this thread.

 

[PeterNSteinmetz]

And, moonless night "IFR" is the easiest instrument flying you will ever do. It's almost always dead calm and beautiful...far removed from the conditions of flying in the clouds on a spring/summer day.

What I am confused about and trying to consider as an alternate point of view is this. Are you contending that flying moonless night VFR without a horizon visible is fairly safe based on the training in the PPL or what JFK, Jr had?

Or are you contending that more training is needed to make that reasonably safe?

 

[timwinters]

First, AGAIN, neither of us knows what training JFK, Jr had...now do we? Or do you have a crystal ball that I don't have? (you're continuing to walk with your head down in that same little circle).

Second, what I'm saying, AGAIN is:

"high level of training". Ummm...no...both instrument work and night work are required parts of the PPL curriculum...and it doesn't take much more that the required minimum to become relatively proficient at it.

jayyyyyzus dude. READ!

I am now exiting your circle (jerk), have fun without me.

 

[dbahn]

I included his crash in several lectures I gave on ADM and had looked through a number of NTSB and other sources. Here's one of the slides from the NTSB's full narrative:



So he was certainly familiar with the route and had a reasonable level of night experience. His total time was 310 hours (with 36 in make and model).

Again, I suspect that he was an average pilot with fairly low time experience but not particularly reckless in his risk management. But the first step in risk management is to identify the hazard, and I think that was his failure. Had he correctly identified the risk he had a number of management alternatives - take the CFI along, cancel the flight, put his fate in the autopilot (not recommended) or simply fly at altitude and descend over the field. His ultimate destination was Hyannis, and he could even have landed there and sent his passenger to MVY on a commercial flight or ferry boat.

 

[Palmpilot]

I would think we would agree that a non-instrument rated pilot choosing to fly at night without a visible horizon is in general not a good idea, but perhaps you disagree?...

I think that would eliminate most night VFR in much of the country.

 

[olasek]

Are you contending that flying moonless night VFR without a horizon visible is fairly safe based on the training in the PPL or what JFK, Jr had?

As we know from countless accidents caused by spatial disorientation at night over water no amount of training may be "enough". Recently Japan lost their first F-35 in exact same manner - pilot flew it at night into water.
This pilot had over 3200 hrs. Japan Air Force say that spatial disorientation is their number #1 killer.

 

[Palmpilot]

What I am confused about and trying to consider as an alternate point of view is this. Are you contending that flying moonless night VFR without a horizon visible is fairly safe based on the training in the PPL or what JFK, Jr had?

Or are you contending that more training is needed to make that reasonably safe?

How do you define "fairly safe" and "reasonably safe"? Those terms by themselves are too subjective to prove anything.

 

[mcdewey]

So why is this relevant to anything aviation or ....? The man's been gone for how many years? Definitely a morbid article for the sole purpose of selling magazines using the very old and now irrelevant "aura" of the Kennedy's.

I get asked about JFK, Jr. all the time by non-pilot relatives when I mention I'm a pilot. My family is mostly long-time Democrats (back to FDR) and still mourn Jr's loss.

But, yeah, someone wanted to sell magazines.

 

[mryan75]

I included his crash in several lectures I gave on ADM and had looked through a number of NTSB and other sources. Here's one of the slides from the NTSB's full narrative:

View attachment 80397

So he was certainly familiar with the route and had a reasonable level of night experience. His total time was 310 hours (with 36 in make and model).

Again, I suspect that he was an average pilot with fairly low time experience but not particularly reckless in his risk management. But the first step in risk management is to identify the hazard, and I think that was his failure. Had he correctly identified the risk he had a number of management alternatives - take the CFI along, cancel the flight, put his fate in the autopilot (not recommended) or simply fly at altitude and descend over the field. His ultimate destination was Hyannis, and he could even have landed there and sent his passenger to MVY on a commercial flight or ferry boat.

The thing I always remember when I think about him (being a very similar pilot in ratings, training, and experience to Jr.) is hat when he situation changes, your plan has to change, too. He had planned on a daylight flight. As soon as dusk/night came into the picture, it's an entirely different flight. You need to reevaluate your plan from scratch.

 

[Zeldman]

The real story on the JFK jr crash.

Reader's Digest version.

The wife discovered that the husband had been having affair with her sister. During the flight she decided to confront her husband about the affair. After much discussion, the wife pulled pistol from her purse and shot the husband, then the sister, but then was unable to fly the plane to a country without extradition to the US.

This also explains why no autopsy, and also explains why the bodies were pretty much pulled from the plane, put into caskets and buried.




Ok, this is a totally made up story by the mind of a sane person that comes up with stories to entertain the masses.... but had you wondering for a second, didn't it.??