Is the Hiring Boom Over?

Bonchie

Bonchie

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Bonchie
Had a friend of mine just go to Ameriflight because the regionals have such a Captain shortage they won’t hire FOs. He couldn’t even get an interview despite a super solid record.

Another friend got hired by Envoy a year ago and is just now starting training after three training class delays. He said they told the class they aren’t really needed and to not expect to catch any breaks.

Elevated insurance is also making it tougher to get into the corporate/charter side, even as an SIC. Lot of operations that used to be 1000TT for the right seat now needing hundreds of hours ME turbine. Noticing a slowing in job postings on that side of the industry too except “need Captain with type ratings and 50000 hours.”

I’m coming up on airline minimums, though I really want to do corporate. Kind of feels like I missed the last flight out of ‘Nam.
 
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There’s always the potential for an economic slowdown, I just don’t feel like the music is stopping yet. It wasn’t to long ago & we had references to ‘fogging a mirror’ & you’re hired.

Get hours, ratings, keep the peripherals of your qualifications clean, should be fine. It’s always good doing the ‘shotgun approach’, apply everywhere you ‘may’ want to work. You can decide later.
 
What is your goal? Is it to "work as a pilot" or is it "work as a pilot for <x company>"? That makes a difference.

If it is to work as a pilot, put in for any and all reasonable jobs posted. You may have to take a less than ideal job to start off with, but now you're building professional time. Later, when you decide to post for your dream company you'll have professional time, plus maybe some type ratings.

If your goal is to work for a specific company as pilot, you're going to have a lot smaller opportunity pool and probably higher competition. If it is your dream company it probably is for many others as well.

While not in your shoes, I have had to do job searches so I know how it goes. There will be a lot of applications you'll never hear back from. You'll probably never know the reason they passed you over. However, you only need one to respond to start building the time, which will certainly help you the next time you apply anywhere.

Let us know how it goes.
 
Yes, pilots at regionals are reporting a shortage of captains, and surplus of FOs. Keep your nose to the grind stone, unless we have a major event there should be room for one more.

Good news is that the majors are causing the regionals CA shortage by hiring them. When they are sucking up pilots, there will be a flow to refill the voids left. Current FO moves to CA, then all a sudden the Reeg needs more FOs.

Corporate is still booming and some pilots are leaving to go to majors. They need FOs too.
 
Yes, the job market and economy is slowing down. It happens. It will happen again. It's not crashing, and no reason to think you need to change careers before you even start LOL! I've seen much worse and people survived.

upload_2023-3-17_9-28-47.png
 
The boom is not over. Hundreds of regional jets are parked, in the US, because the airline's can't crew them and many of those that are flying are flying have reduced utilization.

Those qualified to be direct-entry Captains can get hired immediately. Otherwise, the existing F/Os must gain their 1,000 hours of part 121 time to be able to upgrade. When they do, the hiring for F/Os will return.
 
Larry in TN said:
… direct-entry Captains….
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That’s kind of a small pool of folks, no? I mean that as if you’re DEC qualified, you’re also likely to be competitive at a major, correct?

Seems like it would be as easy for a major to expand to cover regional flying as it would be for regionals to ramp back up, but I’m just guessing here.
 
Surplus of regional FOs. Still short on regional CAs and major/legacy FOs. Last captain I flew with does hiring at DL and said 2026 is going to the cut off for the front end of our hiring wave. After that, guys won’t have a good of seniority progression as those hired previously.
 
Don't worry, I'm not changing careers based on worries about the market, quite the opposite.

I'm mid-30s, have the ratings, other sources of income, and have been CFIing a ton for the last year. I'm just getting close to 1500 (have about 50 hours of ME turbine in an BE90 + more regular ME flying a Baron) and was curious what others are seeing/thinking as far as timelines.

The Captain shortage has to end eventually, I'd imagine, but I'm thinking end of the year at the earliest.

I'm more worried about the corporate market. The majors are sucking up people with 950+ ME turbine and paying them tons of money. Who is going to replace those guys when insurance is now wanting hundreds of hours ME turbine just to ride right-seat in a Citation? That's the market that's going to be in big trouble soon enough because of a lack of qualified pilots. I'm not sure how that gets solved.
 
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Good luck on getting a corporate gig with min ATP times. Was at GYY a couple weeks ago, and there was an ad for a corporate pilot. They wanted 5000 turbine and 1500 (maybe even 2500) time in type. Probably pretty typical, and insurance driven.
 
EdFred said:
Good luck on getting a corporate gig with min ATP times. Was at GYY a couple weeks ago, and there was an ad for a corporate pilot. They wanted 5000 turbine and 1500 (maybe even 2500) time in type. Probably pretty typical, and insurance driven.
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It's all insurance driven. Most smaller jet jobs I've seen want 3,000 TT, 1000 ME, 500 turbine, and the type rating. Right-seat, 1500 and 300 ME turbine.

Good luck to the corporate world finding enough of those guys over the next few decades with the airlines paying so much more. Insurance is going to cripple the Part 91 world unless something changes. 90% of CFIs I know are still going airlines or going cargo first in order to get to the airlines.

Most Part 135 outfits seem to still have realistic right-seat totals (1200 TT, 50 ME or something similar), but it's also the worst paying, worst quality of life in the industry.
 
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Macro economic conditions favor a slow down. The Fed is still in inflation fighting mode, which means raising interest rates. Most economists expect a recession this year or next. Nobody wants to get caught over-extended in a slow down, so many corporations are being conservative on hiring and spending budgets this year. However, many corporations are also sitting on piles of cash, and once the expected recession hits for a quarter or two, businesses will be back in growth mode.
 
Ed Haywood said:
Macro economic conditions favor a slow down. The Fed is still in inflation fighting mode, which means raising interest rates. Most economists expect a recession this year or next. Nobody wants to get caught over-extended in a slow down, so many corporations are being conservative on hiring and spending budgets this year. However, many corporations are also sitting on piles of cash, and once the expected recession hits for a quarter or two, businesses will be back in growth mode.
Click to expand...

While I agree with you at the macro level, that is not the issue in the airline world at the moment. There are not enough qualified captains to fly with all the new FOs recently hired. The regionals are losing their captains to the legacy carriers faster than they can upgrade FOs to Captain. That is why the regionals have slowed their FO hiring. The airline industry is still way behind in flight crew staffing, although for how long is anyone's guess. Even in my lifetime I've seen several cycles in pilot hiring.
 
The only thing that I can promise you is that the sun will come up tomorrow. :D
 
You can go straight to frontier or spirit niw days. Just need your ATP-CTP completed and you're pretty much all set. Your ameriflight friend will be at a major carrier faster than ever before. The path doesn't necessarily go through the regionals anymore like it used to.
 
well, they can meddle with the issue [(a)(3)(i)] everybody is talking around of and whamo, the shadow inventory fixes this pretty quick. It's a queueing problem. It's only a pilot shortage as much as calling a clogged pipe with an overflowing tub a shortage of water.....
 
NJP_MAN said:
You can go straight to frontier or spirit niw days. Just need your ATP-CTP completed and you're pretty much all set. Your ameriflight friend will be at a major carrier faster than ever before. The path doesn't necessarily go through the regionals anymore like it used to.
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No doubt he made the right choice. The earliest I'm seeing regional classes is June/July now, and that's for people hired in the last year. He'd have been sitting around probably until December just to get the chance at an interview. Now, he'll get a bunch of ME turbine time and have a shot of going straight to a major. At worst, he's a shoe-in for a regional if he wants to leave after his 6-month contract.
 
hindsight2020 said:
well, they can meddle with the issue [(a)(3)(i)] everybody is talking around of and whamo, the shadow inventory fixes this pretty quick.
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In terms of
121.436 Pilot Qualification: Certificates and experience requirements.
https://www.law.cornell.edu/cfr/text/14/121.436

I am not understanding what is meant by:
121.436(a)(3)(ii)

I was aware of (i) but not (ii) below.
Does that mean that to be PIC under 121, simply having 1000 hrs PIC under typical Part 91 flights counts (legally per FAA) just as well as 1000 hrs SIC flying Part 121 operations?
I realize the FAA does not always make sense but I think it more likely I am misunderstanding this. I also realize that company policy and insurance requirements may easily be more stringent than FAA regulations in various areas.

============
§ 121.436 Pilot Qualification: Certificates and experience requirements.
(a) No certificate holder may use nor may any pilot act as pilot in command of an aircraft (or as second in command of an aircraft in a flag or supplemental operation that requires three or more pilots) unless the pilot:
(1) Holds an airline transport pilot certificate not subject to the limitations in § 61.167 of this chapter;
(2) Holds an appropriate aircraft type rating for the aircraft being flown; and
(3) If serving as pilot in command in part 121 operations, has 1,000 hours as:
(i) Second in command in operations under this part;
(ii) Pilot in command in operations under § 91.1053(a)(2)(i) of this chapter;
(iii) Pilot in command in operations under § 135.243(a)(1) of this chapter;
(iv) Pilot in command in eligible on-demand operations that require the pilot to satisfy § 135.4(a)(2)(ii)(A) of this chapter; or
(v) Any combination thereof.
============

EDIT:
Does 121.436(a)(3)(ii) which then refers to 91.1053(a)(2)(i) mean 1000 hrs of PIC time under Part 91 with that time being Multi-engine turbine-powered while having ATP certification.

Which makes more sense. But still wasn't sure if I was following that properly.

============
§ 91.1053 Crewmember experience.
(a) No program manager or owner may use any person, nor may any person serve, as a pilot in command or second in command of a program aircraft, or as a flight attendant on a program aircraft, in program operations under this subpart unless that person has met the applicable requirements of part 61 of this chapter and has the following experience and ratings:
(1) Total flight time for all pilots:
(i) Pilot in command - A minimum of 1,500 hours.
(ii) Second in command - A minimum of 500 hours.
(2) For multi-engine turbine-powered fixed-wing and powered-lift aircraft, the following FAA certification and ratings requirements:
(i) Pilot in command - Airline transport pilot and applicable type ratings.
(ii) Second in command - Commercial pilot and instrument ratings.
(iii) Flight attendant (if required or used) - Appropriately trained personnel.
(3) For all other aircraft, the following FAA certification and rating requirements:
(i) Pilot in command - Commercial pilot and instrument ratings.
(ii) Second in command - Commercial pilot and instrument ratings.
(iii) Flight attendant (if required or used) - Appropriately trained personnel.
============
 
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I wouldn't even bother applying to a regional these days if you have your ATP. Apply directly to the ULCC's, JetBlue, and SWA. If not already, they'll be hiring people with those quals. I heard the legacies are worried about the supply of the candidates they are targeting to dry up by the end of this year. I've had a few friends in the corporate world jump from small cabin jets into large cabin with companies that would never have done that in the past. It's a great time to be a pilot.
 
Mongoose Aviator said:
In terms of
121.436 Pilot Qualification: Certificates and experience requirements.
https://www.law.cornell.edu/cfr/text/14/121.436

I am not understanding what is meant by:
121.436(a)(3)(ii)

I was aware of (i) but not (ii) below.
Does that mean that to be PIC under 121, simply having 1000 hrs PIC under typical Part 91 flights counts (legally per FAA) just as well as 1000 hrs SIC flying Part 121 operations?
I realize the FAA does not always make sense but I think it more likely I am misunderstanding this. I also realize that company policy and insurance requirements may easily be more stringent than FAA regulations in various areas.

============
§ 121.436 Pilot Qualification: Certificates and experience requirements.
(a) No certificate holder may use nor may any pilot act as pilot in command of an aircraft (or as second in command of an aircraft in a flag or supplemental operation that requires three or more pilots) unless the pilot:
(1) Holds an airline transport pilot certificate not subject to the limitations in § 61.167 of this chapter;
(2) Holds an appropriate aircraft type rating for the aircraft being flown; and
(3) If serving as pilot in command in part 121 operations, has 1,000 hours as:
(i) Second in command in operations under this part;
(ii) Pilot in command in operations under § 91.1053(a)(2)(i) of this chapter;
(iii) Pilot in command in operations under § 135.243(a)(1) of this chapter;
(iv) Pilot in command in eligible on-demand operations that require the pilot to satisfy § 135.4(a)(2)(ii)(A) of this chapter; or
(v) Any combination thereof.
============

EDIT:
Does 121.436(a)(3)(ii) which then refers to 91.1053(a)(2)(i) mean 1000 hrs of PIC time under Part 91 with that time being Multi-engine turbine-powered while having ATP certification.

Which makes more sense. But still wasn't sure if I was following that properly.

============
§ 91.1053 Crewmember experience.
(a) No program manager or owner may use any person, nor may any person serve, as a pilot in command or second in command of a program aircraft, or as a flight attendant on a program aircraft, in program operations under this subpart unless that person has met the applicable requirements of part 61 of this chapter and has the following experience and ratings:
(1) Total flight time for all pilots:
(i) Pilot in command - A minimum of 1,500 hours.
(ii) Second in command - A minimum of 500 hours.
(2) For multi-engine turbine-powered fixed-wing and powered-lift aircraft, the following FAA certification and ratings requirements:
(i) Pilot in command - Airline transport pilot and applicable type ratings.
(ii) Second in command - Commercial pilot and instrument ratings.
(iii) Flight attendant (if required or used) - Appropriately trained personnel.
(3) For all other aircraft, the following FAA certification and rating requirements:
(i) Pilot in command - Commercial pilot and instrument ratings.
(ii) Second in command - Commercial pilot and instrument ratings.
(iii) Flight attendant (if required or used) - Appropriately trained personnel.
============
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Yeah, you're misreading the reg, but that has nothing to do with the point of my post. My quip didn't deal with the (3)(ii) rabbit hole you went down. Mine dealt solely on the macro premise I was making regarding the regionals' CA upgrade choke point being mislabeled a shortage, whilst highly-experienced military and civilian shadow inventory alike goes dafuq, as we/they don't qualify for DEC under the rusty spoon the apparently cut (a)(3)(i) with.

Anyways, to help you out with your confusion... The reason you're getting tripped on the reg read is because you're quoting a subpart of 91K, which is where the hyperlink in 121.xxx (a)(3)(ii) took you. IOW, you're quoting a fractionals chapter, not straight 91. As such, they're dual crew by definition, which is why part 121 gives them credit. Hope that helps you wrt a.3.ii.

--break break--

Second the comments above, go direct to ULCC at this point if you can. I suppose mainline will still keep their WO in life support (still cheaper for mainline, believe it or not) and poach from each other as they need to or can. Things will invariably change here as the demand dumps with the increasing inability of the plebes to keep up this inflationary household cost of living (largely indebted, even with 2% mortgages in the bag) structure going for the rest of the year. Until then, get in while the going's good, cuz it'll change. Good luck!
 
hindsight2020 said:
Hope that helps you wrt a.3.ii.
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Ok. Really not trying to sound like an idiot. Probably failing at that also. But no? It didn't really help?
Perhaps I do not understand what it means for "fractionals chapter, not straight 91"
But even without understanding that, "As such, they're dual crew by definition, which is why part 121 gives them credit" makes sense to me.

Groundpounder said:
I wouldn't even bother applying to a regional these days if you have your ATP. Apply directly to the ULCC's, JetBlue, and SWA.
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That helps. I am close to hours requirement for ATP and I have the option to get ATP myself. I was wondering if it would be beneficial to get it myself and then apply to an airline after having it. Among other things, I thought not having to deal with taking the ATP during initial training would be beneficial and allow me to focus more on the training for the airline itself? I am older and reality is everything is going to take me longer to learn than somebody who is 25 years old. I did miss the recent hiring boom of the regionals but it sounds like there are still options open going forward.
 
Mongoose Aviator said:
I was wondering if it would be beneficial to get it myself and then apply to an airline after having it. Among other things, I thought not having to deal with taking the ATP during initial training would be beneficial and allow me to focus more on the training for the airline itself?
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The airline training and checkride/type ride IS the ATP training and checkride.

The difference is the CTP course which, if needed, comes before the start of the airline traning.
 
Larry in TN said:
The difference is the CTP course which, if needed, comes before the start of the airline traning.
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True. Flight Safety. Or there might be alternatives but Flight Safety is the one I heard the most.

Larry in TN said:
The airline training and checkride/type ride IS the ATP training and checkride.
Click to expand...
I can also get the ATP checkride in my Multi prior to the airline training with my local DPE.
 
Mongoose Aviator said:
True. Flight Safety. Or there might be alternatives but Flight Safety is the one I heard the most.

I can also get the ATP checkride in my Multi prior to the airline training with my local DPE.
Click to expand...

Aren't the regional airlines still offering the CTP course, to new-hires who need it, prior to them starting new-hire training?
 
Larry in TN said:
Aren't the regional airlines still offering the CTP course, to new-hires who need it, prior to them starting new-hire training?
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My friend recently went through regional training. He is now flying as First Officer and completed his 100 hrs post IOE so going good for him so far.
He told me in his training class, only himself and 1 other already had their ATP prior to starting training with the airline. Everybody else in his class has to do the ATP and the regular training at the same time. Certainly different airlines may have different training approaches but at least in this one, they did not break the ATP up into a "pre" training activity but rather merged it into the regular training for the majority of those who needed it.
 
Mongoose Aviator said:
My friend recently went through regional training. He is now flying as First Officer and completed his 100 hrs post IOE so going good for him so far.
He told me in his training class, only himself and 1 other already had their ATP prior to starting training with the airline. Everybody else in his class has to do the ATP and the regular training at the same time. Certainly different airlines may have different training approaches but at least in this one, they did not break the ATP up into a "pre" training activity but rather merged it into the regular training for the majority of those who needed it.
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Then I don't know what you mean by "ATP training". Every airline checkride is an ATP checkride. The only additional requirement, that I'm aware of, is the relatively new (10 years?) CTP course and simulator time.
 
Larry in TN said:
Then I don't know what you mean by "ATP training". Every airline checkride is an ATP checkride. The only additional requirement, that I'm aware of, is the relatively new (10 years?) CTP course and simulator time.
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An initial Multi ATP oral now includes 5 additional tasks beyond what the ATP/Type PTS always had. The CTP course is supposed to train those tasks, among other things.
 
MauleSkinner said:
An initial Multi ATP oral now includes 5 additional tasks beyond what the ATP/Type PTS always had. The CTP course is supposed to train those tasks, among other things.
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I do not know what the PTS had.
I am talking about the ATP ACS dated June 2019 for Multi ATP.
 
According to the boobs at APC, Spirit will interview you with ATP written complete, provided you are ATP practical-eligible on the hours. If I were a .civ airline aspirant, I'd cough up the CTP money and get the written knocked out and go straight to ULCC. Ymmv, offer not valid where prohibited, see local dealer for details :D
 
Take a deep breath and relax. Why is there a captain shortage at the regionals? FOs didn’t fly during Covid but the captains were still advancing their careers. So there’s a gap in the progression ladder. By the end of this year, things will be back to normal again.
 
Larry in TN said:
Then I don't know what you mean by "ATP training". Every airline checkride is an ATP checkride. The only additional requirement, that I'm aware of, is the relatively new (10 years?) CTP course and simulator time.
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Not entirely responding just to your post, but more the entire thread.

The ATP/CTP class doesn’t get you an ATP certificate. Therefore, most regional FOs will get their initial ATP issued at the same time as they get their type rating and company qualification.
 
If I were a low time pilot looking to go to a regional today, I’d apply for a cadet position with that regional. You’ll be slotted in for a future class when you get your R-ATP minimums.

This won’t work if you’re at or near those minimums.
 
jonnyjetprop said:
Take a deep breath and relax. Why is there a captain shortage at the regionals? FOs didn’t fly during Covid but the captains were still advancing their careers. So there’s a gap in the progression ladder. By the end of this year, things will be back to normal again.
Click to expand...

Without available captains, how are the FOs going to fly in order to get things back to normal?
 
There is a problem with getting FO’s part 121 time so they can upgrade. The bigger issue however is the current regional cost structure is too high to operate many of their traditional markets. Most of those markets and the jobs they are supporting will and are going away. Regional fleets will be significantly smaller in 5 years. There will however still be plenty of pilots needed going forward. A chunk of the lost regional time will migrate up and demand continues to surge. I suspect in 5 years hiring standards will be tougher than today but the jobs will be there. The larger airlines are getting fed up with the quality of the applicants they are hiring. Extra sims, extra OE and terminations are expensive and trending up rapidly.
 
jonnyjetprop said:
Take a deep breath and relax. Why is there a captain shortage at the regionals? FOs didn’t fly during Covid but the captains were still advancing their careers. So there’s a gap in the progression ladder. By the end of this year, things will be back to normal again.
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Uh FOs didn't fly during COVID? Did we switch to single pilot cockpits without anyone knowing?

That's not really why. FOs need 1,000 hours to be a captain. Captains only need a few hours to be attractive to a major carrier. That's why the balance is off. It's not really COVID related.
 
and now FOs who are smart enough to count with their fingers are bailing for ULCC direct (since having passed regional training is pretty much all the LCCs need to know about trainability) or arbitraging their position by getting hired by the WO opposite of the major/legacy they actually want to end up at, since the word is out the WOs are getting metered heavily by their own parents. As has been highlighted three times already, it's 121.436.a.3.i that's the snag right now.

As to majors complaining about the increase in training events and shenanigans on the line, yeah that checks with the water cooler talk at the squadron. And I get it from all of them, since we have a pretty wide representation of airlines and seniority numbers at work (10+ years to sub 6 month hires). Y'all stay safe and keep us safe up there; as a passenger aware of the inside baseball due to workplace proxy, it's upsetting to realize my historic reservations about patronizing regional flights in the winter and at night are starting to bleed into my evaluation of major airline city pairs. As an industry, we've gotten lucky this year on the close calls front, but they are happening with greater frequency.
 
I won’t be surprised to see the cadet programs become the primary pathway to 121 over the next decade. I will be surprised to see much non-wholly owned regional opportunities out there.
 
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