Improved outlook for airline pilots?

tonycondon said:
yea, but we don't believe USA Today
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C'mon. Try to be an optimist. I do not see the Air Force being able to produce anywhere near enough pilots to keep up with the demand. This means a bigger role for GA in the training of pilots and hopefully more sales for GA manufacturers such as Diamond. Nice video of a DA42 used for flight training in the USA Today story.
 
Ppppffft. They've been saying it for years. I dunno, maybe kids have finally wised up to the fact that after all that debt, they only get paid $18K for starters. I don't give anyone that much credit for forward thinking, though.
 
I was talking to someone about this the other day. His 15-year-old daughter wants to become a pilot. He has mixed feelings, although he did bring up the point that she might hit the hiring cycle at the right time if not many other people are going into it. Full disclosure is that her mother is an airline pilot and her father is a corporate pilot so I'm sure she has heard about the various problems related to the career.
 
I would not advise any of my kids to pursue a career in aviation (or medicine either) but remain hopeful that the situation for professional pilots will improve. I think there may be some truth in these:

The hiring surge is being fueled by several factors:
•The rapid growth of travel in Asia, which is on track to surpass North America as the largest air travel market in the world;
•A looming wave of pilot retirements in the USA;
•Proposed changes to rules that could increase the time pilots must train, rest and work;
•And increasing demand for air travel within the USA as the economy improves.
 
Yes, it will improve at many of the major carriers, but don't kid yourself there are thousands of perfectly qualified pilots to fill those jobs...lots of folks have been very patient for a decade or so.. The likes of SWA will not be begging EMBRY grads to come work for them. I just hope the majors can get their mojo back and kick the regional carriers back into their place.
 
Gary F said:
C'mon. Try to be an optimist.
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I wanted to be a professional pilot, preferably an airline pilot, since before I can reliably remember. I began closely watching when I went to college in an aviation program. The pilot shortage has been predicted continuously since then. This was the late 70's. In the last 33 years, there has been one time, ONE TIME, that those predictions came even remotely close to coming to pass. That was in the couple of years around 2000. Then 9/11 happened, and everyone was furloughing.

Bottom line is that I will believe it when I see it.
 
Gary F said:
The hiring surge is being fueled by several factors:
•The rapid growth of travel in Asia, which is on track to surpass North America as the largest air travel market in the world;
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That is fine if you want to live in Asia. And China is a HUGE country. No surprise that it will eventually bypass North America in a lot of things.

•A looming wave of pilot retirements in the USA;
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Same thing happened in the late '80s and early '90s when the pilots from the hiring boom of the 60's started to retire. No shortage.

•Proposed changes to rules that could increase the time pilots must train, rest and work;
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That might help. A little. Maybe about 5% or so. Just a WAG.

•And increasing demand for air travel within the USA as the economy improves.
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How do you like those Regional Jets?
 
I've read that same story a couple of times a year for over 20 years. In that time there has only been one real hiring boom that lasted a couple of years while the Majors were laying off expensive pilots and equipment and handing the contracts for the routes to regional carriers so a pretty solid percentage of those jobs got filled by the same pilots taking large pay and sometimes seniority cuts, and the other new slots being filled by low time pilots getting payed so little they can apply for Food Stamps. Most of that transition is already complete. There are plenty of pilots available to fill the upcoming flood of minimum wage jobs that when the call goes out, there will be at least 30 pilots applying for every $18k a year opening that comes up. Even in the biggest hiring booms, there has always been a high ratio of applicants to seats available. There hasn't been a "pilot shortage" since WWII.
 
taters said:
I just hope the majors can get their mojo back and kick the regional carriers back into their place.
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The Majors are the ones who instigated turning the low efficiency runs for big planes with expensive pilots over to their contract carriers because they could feed their hubs a lot cheaper with poverty level pilots and smaller more efficient aircraft.
 
taters said:
the majors themselves and the scam that is ALPA
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Although I know I shouldn't take it that way, that comes awfully close to a personal insult.

I would be interested in you rationale behind that statement.

FWIW, although ALPA represents companies at both the major and the regional level, they do know that the upward career progression is harmed by the proliferation of the regional airlines. And a lot of the regional pilots are starting to realize the same thing.

IOW, as an ALPA member (reluctantly) I don't share that view.
 
Henning said:
The Majors are the ones who instigated turning the low efficiency runs for big planes with expensive pilots over to their contract carriers because they could feed their hubs a lot cheaper with poverty level pilots and smaller more efficient aircraft.
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And, in hindsight, that is proving to be not quite the panacea that they (the major management) thought it would be. Not that they won't try to make it work anyway.
 
taters said:
the majors themselves and the scam that is ALPA
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ALPA kinda makes me throw up in my mouth a little every time I hear about them. You can tell pilots aren't that smart because they put up with such a stupid system of representation. Back in the days when pilots were a valued commodity and before the days of deregulation and the aviation austerity program of the last few decades, it was OK. Now though, having independent Unions and seniority lists at every airline does nothing but pay extra and unnecessary Union management. You get no real benefit as a Union member. The contracts are crap and the Union concedes more and more while the people at Union HQ get pay raises. There are very few stable airlines and airline jobs so a central seniority number and hiring hall would be a long term benefit to both pilots and airlines. The Union could take over the training/currency program for all the pilots using a set of pooled resources that each airline has to maintain independently at this point. For all those union dues you pay, you can elect to qualify and get rated on more equipment on your time off. With some cooperation of the FAA, you could even standardize a 121 Operations Manual so that once qualified in an aircraft, you can work "casual" on that aircraft for any carrier making it much easier for carriers to compensate for seasonal fluxes in seats required on a route. Also it can reduce the time and passenger inconvenience that happens when you need to replace a crew member at the last moment. Several times I've had to wait for hours to make a flight because someone got sick or didn't show, one time we couldn't continue because the last leg went over time and the crew had "timed out" and they had to wait for another crew to get flown in from halfway across the country.

The current Union model serves no one well but the Union Leaders and the Airlines.
 
Greg Bockelman said:
How do you like those Regional Jets?
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Just fine. How will this affect pilot demand?

Improved outlook for airline pilots?
To borrow a line from the X Files, I want to believe. It appears that I would be more realistic expecting proof of extra-terrestrial life.
 
Greg Bockelman said:
And, in hindsight, that is proving to be not quite the panacea that they (the major management) thought it would be. Not that they won't try to make it work anyway.
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No one was looking for a panacea. You had MBA management on short term contracts looking to maximize next quarters bonus. They knew it would make a mess in the long run especially requiring the purchase of all those RJs so the passengers would more readily accept them, but those guys jumped with their Golden parachutes a decade ago.

What killed aviation was when Aviators quit OWNING airlines. Back in the day you had Howard Hughes and those guys with a vision of the future because they were in it for the long haul. Now it's "How much can I make in the next 2 years?"
 
Henning said:
What killed aviation was when Aviators quit OWNING airlines. Back in the day you had Howard Hughes and those guys with a vision of the future because they were in it for the long haul. Now it's "How much can I make in the next 2 years?"
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I'm not sure how good it was back in the day for pilots if you read Ernie Gann. It seems that not only were they not being paid well but they were crashing and dying in large numbers.
 
Well I have no regrets over choosing to be an airline pilot. I think that is because I came from working in the regular 9 to 5 world for awhile and was bored to tears with it. I guess timing played a factor as I did my regional gig while single and it only lasted for four short but fast paced years before I started out (quite fortunately) in the right seat of a 757.

I just got back from a ten day vacation in Switzerland and my wife and I flew there and back in First Class for the total cost of ZERO dollars. My schedule from now until the 21st of July is three days on and four days in a row off with the last nine days of July off for OSH. Yeah, I'm quite sure there are IT guys grinding away in the dark somewhere making way more than me but I doubt they have as many days off as I do and might very well NEVER see as much of the world as I will.
 
Henning said:
...
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I can't disagree with what you have said up to this point.

so a central seniority number and hiring hall would be a long term benefit to both pilots and airlines.
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That MAY be true.

For all those union dues you pay, you can elect to qualify and get rated on more equipment on your time off.
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Yeah. Well, problem with that is that it starts to become a safety issue being qualified on more than one type at a time. Granted the Airbus 320 series, 330 and 340 are very similar, and the Boeing family is becoming more standardized. But to be qualified AND CURRENT on, say, an Airbus 320 and Boeing 757/767 becomes more problematic. Not sure the FAA would buy off on dual qualifications.

you can work "casual" on that aircraft for any carrier
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What does that mean?

Also it can reduce the time and passenger inconvenience that happens when you need to replace a crew member at the last moment.
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How do you figure?

Several times I've had to wait for hours to make a flight because someone got sick or didn't show, one time we couldn't continue because the last leg went over time and the crew had "timed out" and they had to wait for another crew to get flown in from halfway across the country.
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How would your system prevent that? That would require a "pool" of qualified pilots, virtually at every station.

The current Union model serves no one well but the Union Leaders and the Airlines.
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And what makes you think, given that statement, that there is any incentive to change?

Using your model, there might as well not be any independent airlines. Just one would do. I am willing to be further educated, but I don't see how it really benefits anyone.
 
Henning said:
The current Union model serves no one well but the Union Leaders and the Airlines.
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You nailed it....ALPA is a business and that's what they are all about. Just look at age 65
 
Henning said:
ALPA kinda makes me throw up in my mouth a little every time I hear about them. You can tell pilots aren't that smart because they put up with such a stupid system of representation. Back in the days when pilots were a valued commodity and before the days of deregulation and the aviation austerity program of the last few decades, it was OK. Now though, having independent Unions and seniority lists at every airline does nothing but pay extra and unnecessary Union management. You get no real benefit as a Union member. The contracts are crap and the Union concedes more and more while the people at Union HQ get pay raises. There are very few stable airlines and airline jobs so a central seniority number and hiring hall would be a long term benefit to both pilots and airlines. The Union could take over the training/currency program for all the pilots using a set of pooled resources that each airline has to maintain independently at this point. For all those union dues you pay, you can elect to qualify and get rated on more equipment on your time off. With some cooperation of the FAA, you could even standardize a 121 Operations Manual so that once qualified in an aircraft, you can work "casual" on that aircraft for any carrier making it much easier for carriers to compensate for seasonal fluxes in seats required on a route. Also it can reduce the time and passenger inconvenience that happens when you need to replace a crew member at the last moment. Several times I've had to wait for hours to make a flight because someone got sick or didn't show, one time we couldn't continue because the last leg went over time and the crew had "timed out" and they had to wait for another crew to get flown in from halfway across the country.

The current Union model serves no one well but the Union Leaders and the Airlines.
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Wow ! Do you draw cartoons in your spare time ? I ask because very little of what you say is even remotely grounded in any sense of reality. In this fantasy perfect airline world you describe will there be unicorns too ?
 
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I'm sorry. I did not mean to start a SZ type controversy. I was just hoping that the good news was real.
 
Gary, it has the potential to be. But those of us in that industry have seen these things almost continuously for years and the reality does not live up to the promise.
 
Gary F said:
I'm sorry. I did not mean to start a SZ type controversy. I was just hoping that the good news was real.
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As a lurker on the thread, I was marveling about how the thread you started so nicely veered sharply into the direction of bellyaching. Such is the way of internet forums that some topics are touchy enough to do that.
 
Hey - assuming the "ATP for 121 pilots" congressional law gets written into a FAR - what happens to folks currently flying at regionals or smaller 121 operators as FOs who don't have the 1500 hours or the ATP - do they get fired?
 
Henning said:
ALPA kinda makes me throw up in my mouth a little every time I hear about them. You can tell pilots aren't that smart because they put up with such a stupid system of representation. Back in the days when pilots were a valued commodity and before the days of deregulation and the aviation austerity program of the last few decades, it was OK. Now though, having independent Unions and seniority lists at every airline does nothing but pay extra and unnecessary Union management. You get no real benefit as a Union member. The contracts are crap and the Union concedes more and more while the people at Union HQ get pay raises. There are very few stable airlines and airline jobs so a central seniority number and hiring hall would be a long term benefit to both pilots and airlines. The Union could take over the training/currency program for all the pilots using a set of pooled resources that each airline has to maintain independently at this point. For all those union dues you pay, you can elect to qualify and get rated on more equipment on your time off. With some cooperation of the FAA, you could even standardize a 121 Operations Manual so that once qualified in an aircraft, you can work "casual" on that aircraft for any carrier making it much easier for carriers to compensate for seasonal fluxes in seats required on a route. Also it can reduce the time and passenger inconvenience that happens when you need to replace a crew member at the last moment. Several times I've had to wait for hours to make a flight because someone got sick or didn't show, one time we couldn't continue because the last leg went over time and the crew had "timed out" and they had to wait for another crew to get flown in from halfway across the country.

The current Union model serves no one well but the Union Leaders and the Airlines.
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Hmmm, you don't have any personal experience with ALPA yet you make that claim? No offense, but because you are on the outside looking in you will never see the things that ALPA does.... So, no doubt your opinion would be misguided.

Bob
 
Greg Bockelman said:
How do you figure?
How would your system prevent that? That would require a "pool" of qualified pilots, virtually at every station.
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Because you have the ability to pull from the entire base pilot pool, not just your airline's pilot pool. That's what "casual" typically means, you can come in and fill short time need.
 
bob_albertson said:
Hmmm, you don't have any personal experience with ALPA yet you make that claim? No offense, but because you are on the outside looking in you will never see the things that ALPA does.... So, no doubt your opinion would be misguided.

Bob
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Actually I did for a brief period. I have also watched what has happened in the industry. I've been involved in 7 or 8 unions in my life. 1 of them, SIU, was worth everything I paid and then some, the rest were thieves and consider the rank and file to be their army of extortion except IBEW which was OK but had some arcane rules on some sites.
 
TMetzinger said:
Hey - assuming the "ATP for 121 pilots" congressional law gets written into a FAR - what happens to folks currently flying at regionals or smaller 121 operators as FOs who don't have the 1500 hours or the ATP - do they get fired?
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I doubt that there are right now many FOs that have much less than 1500hrs. Nobody has hired for 2-3 years, so even the folks who were hired with 350hrs should be eligible right now (unless they spent most of that time on furlough).

The way I read the ' Airline Safety and Pilot Training and Improvement Act of 2009' it doesn't actually chisel the 1500 hrs in stone. It sets up a task force to study the issue, commissions reports etc. and leaves the FAA some leeway to define how they want to increase the qualifications.

There is this NPRM from the FAA last year:

http://www.faa.gov/regulations_policies/rulemaking/recently_published/media/2010-02643_PI.pdf

It throws out a couple of the ideas the FAA seems to ponder on this.
- 750 hrs
- credit for formal college education
- a 'part 121 endorsement' specific to particular airlines (iow a little bit more paperwork during initial training)
- some extra icing training :wink2:

So, whichever way this turns out, I dont think it will be a hard '1500hrs + ATP' but rather something along the lines of this NPRM. Out of the people 'in the pipeline' that have been scrounging up 'dual given' hours for the past 3 years, a good number will have hours and possibly formal college education along those lines and be ready to step into the regional jobs once they start opening up.

(I know folks who work for DOT, it took the FAA 8 years to get around to the 'photos on pilots license' issue, I dont see the 'ATP for part 121 FOs' to move at lighting speed.)

 
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Henning said:
Actually I did for a brief period. I have also watched what has happened in the industry. I've been involved in 7 or 8 unions in my life. 1 of them, SIU, was worth everything I paid and then some, the rest were thieves and consider the rank and file to be their army of extortion except IBEW which was OK but had some arcane rules on some sites.
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Not at Express Jet when you were there. They didn't have an ALPA contract. They only recently signed a TA but still haven't ratified it. Your time would have been with the teamsters.
 
weilke said:
I doubt that there are right now many FOs that have much less than 1500hrs. Nobody has hired for 2-3 years, so even the folks who were hired with 350hrs should be eligible right now (unless they spent most of that time on furlough).
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Beyond the furloughed ones not having 1500, I've heard there are some FOs that got hired with such low times that even though they now have 1500, they don't have the 250 PIC required for an ATP.
 
bob_albertson said:
Not at Express Jet when you were there. They didn't have an ALPA contract. They only recently signed a TA but still haven't ratified it. Your time would have been with the teamsters.
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Express 1, it was a commuter carrier for NW Airlink. I flew a BAe 3100.
 
shenanigans said:
I've heard there are some FOs that got hired with such low times that even though they now have 1500, they don't have the 250 PIC required for an ATP.
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So if you were one of those low time FO's, what should you do? Rent some time in a C152 on your days off? :rofl:
 
MSPAviator said:
So if you were one of those low time FO's, what should you do? Rent some time in a C152 on your days off? :rofl:
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We have some '07 and '08 hires going to upgrade class in August. They keep pushing the date back because of the backlog in training right now. I'm a '10 hire and I'll be in the class after theirs. There have been a few of the late hires from '09 who have upgraded. One early '07 upgrade was telling me he just hit the total time required to upgrade. He's one of those that has 2300 TT and 2100 Company time.

I've got the required company time (plus 200 hrs) and I have the required company time (1,000). So in a way I am lucky in that I had a lot more hours than those hired during the hiring rush and I was upgrade eligible in 9months (with the reducible hours). So.... at an airline where you CAN upgrade at or slightly over your 1 year anniversary, most all of the group from '07-'08 had to wait until now 4 and 3 years respectively.... before they could even be upgradeable. Not that it's a bad thing, but no one wants to hand their hat at a regional very long. If I upgrade on schedule :)confused::rolleyes:) I could be looking at 2-3 years with the company, total, before I have the time that the Majors are looking for. It depends on what happens with all the very senior guys at all the regionals. Some may opt not to go to a major since it will affect their quality of life and others may jump at the bit.... So just like with all things, the actual time before someone goes to a major depends on the market at the time they are ready, the amount of hiring they are doing, and the pilot pool experience levels. Plus, by the time you go to the Majors.... Hours help, but they may hire someone less experienced if they present themselves as a sharp, professional, and sociable person :)
 
MSPAviator said:
So if you were one of those low time FO's, what should you do? Rent some time in a C152 on your days off? :rofl:
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That would illustrate the insanity of the concept of substituting hours for experience.
 
Everskyward said:
I'm not sure how good it was back in the day for pilots if you read Ernie Gann. It seems that not only were they not being paid well but they were crashing and dying in large numbers.
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At least by what's I've read...all the history I have found on the airlines and flying indicates pay was TERRIBLE!!!! for pilots before unions came around...not sure what authors I've read though.
 
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