I’m calling the peak

ArrowFlyer86 said:
Per my janky little process that just started 2 months ago I have: +6% listing growth past 30d, +8% past 60d per TAP. Only single engine piston.
It only counts total inventory with breakouts for the major mfrs -- no price data collected. Not sure how much is due to seasonality.
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And like everyone else I'm seeing the same listings posted over and over... and over again (and it's beginning to ruin my evening pastime activity of scrolling through TAP with a beer in my hand)...
And VB's inventory doesn't seem to be moving at all. The plane I asked about 6 months ago is still sitting there. Wondering if people will ever start taking lower bids.
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I like that data.
 
ArrowFlyer86 said:
Per my janky little process that just started 2 months ago I have: +6% listing growth past 30d, +8% past 60d per TAP. Only single engine piston.
It only counts total inventory with breakouts for the major mfrs -- no price data collected. Not sure how much is due to seasonality.
View attachment 119822
And like everyone else I'm seeing the same listings posted over and over... and over again (and it's beginning to ruin my evening pastime activity of scrolling through TAP with a beer in my hand)...
And VB's inventory doesn't seem to be moving at all. The plane I asked about 6 months ago is still sitting there. Wondering if people will ever start taking lower bids.
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Agreed I think we are just in that turning point where sellers are wanting to test the upper limits of the market. Probably floated the idea of selling the past couple of years but only if they can get a crazy price. Not much seems to be moving unless it is a very in demand airplane or priced well. Kitfox models were a hot item the past few years and seem to have stalled out around the 40k mark for a 912 IV 1200. Everything priced higher seems to sit, ones at that price point move pretty quick. I still think we are 6 months or more from a true flip in the market if everything stays the course.
 
Appreciate the patient in advance with this question. Van Bortel - is this a higher end dealer? Pay more but get a cleaner airplane less likely to be a lemon? Or is this just a more expensive option with little upside?
 
WDD said:
Appreciate the patient in advance with this question. Van Bortel - is this a higher end dealer? Pay more but get a cleaner airplane less likely to be a lemon? Or is this just a more expensive option with little upside?
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It's like buying a used car from Carmax or a used car lot. They are the same car, they probably did the same research on it, maybe even came from the same auctions. What you get for your money at Carmax is the sales experience and after sales support. Carmax says you can return a car for any reason in 30 days, so does Van Bortel. Van will make the experience turn key where as a private sale will require more effort on your part for pre buy, financing, and moving of the aircraft. If you are in the market for a Van Bortel level of aircraft, the price premium is probably of little concern.
 
WDD said:
Appreciate the patient in advance with this question. Van Bortel - is this a higher end dealer? Pay more but get a cleaner airplane less likely to be a lemon? Or is this just a more expensive option with little upside?
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Yeah, they have a good reputation for delivering quality airplanes. And they're the only place I've talked to that has a guarantee of any kind. And the whole "we fly it to your ramp for inspection free of charge or obligation" kind of demonstrates their conviction in the craft.

They also seem to invest a few bucks in bringing the planes back to top notch, show room pieces before listing them. In exchange for all this their Columbia 350s and 400s are routinely more expensive than what's on the open market.

I've talked to them a few times and made a couple offers that weren't accepted at the time. It's because each time I thought the market was turning a little and I'd have some negotiating edge, but I was early. Now that they're holding these for more than 6 months at a time tells me something *may* actually finally be slowing down. Only time will tell.
 
Grum.Man said:
If you are in the market for a Van Bortel level of aircraft, the price premium is probably of little concern.
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I must be one of their far low-end potential customers because price is still a very real concern! I'll pay a premium but don't want to get gouged excessively. And in this market I'm willing to patiently (or impatiently) wait to see if they nudge their prices down with everyone else (eventually). Fingers crossed.
 
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I think the problem with this thread is you're assuming a peak means prices will go down. What if the peak is actually the start of a plateau? You'll be waiting a while. The recession that everyone has predicted has not shown up. You still see people sending out warning signs so maybe something will crack. For now, enjoy the plateau.
 
FWIW - Used car prices are coming down despite no recession. I think the higher interest rates are having some effect on inflation as well as pushing some prices z down. Will it affect Cessnas? We will see.
 
WDD said:
FWIW - Used car prices are coming down despite no recession. I think the higher interest rates are having some effect on inflation as well as pushing some prices z down. Will it affect Cessnas? We will see.
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Anecdotal experience with home prices in my area (DC region) seems to point to prices not getting lower, but just not rising anymore. At least not at the rate they were rising the preceding years.

As a commodity and an asset, private airplanes are somewhere between cars and houses, no?
 
eman1200 said:
you mean they take pictures of every plane under bright hangar lights?
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eman1200 said:
this.
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IDK... There's horror stories abound on PoA/Reddit/etc of people who got into a plane for $X after what they thought was a very thorough prebuy only to end up paying a total of >$1.5x to handle all the issues they encountered soon afterwards. I know that happened to me and I ain't alone on it...

VB charges you more upfront but with a guarantee that you're not going to encounter those things that make you want to hand the keys back. To me, that guarantee is worth real money. In time not spent at the shop and in stress not encountered and in budget not completely shattered by unexpected issues soon after buying it. Now how much extra someone is willing to pay depends -- and clearly it hasn't been enticing enough for me to buy as I don't have one :p. But I wouldn't discount the shop simply b/c the asking price is a bit over what NexGA or a private seller would ask.
 
eman1200 said:
you mean they take pictures of every plane under bright hangar lights?
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I think "presents a picture of the aircraft for sale" puts them in the upper third of sellers, frankly. The glamour shots by Deb mall lights are just a bonus.
 
ArrowFlyer86 said:
IDK... There's horror stories abound on PoA/Reddit/etc of people who got into a plane for $X after what they thought was a very thorough prebuy only to end up paying a total of >$1.5x to handle all the issues they encountered soon afterwards. I know that happened to me and I ain't alone on it...

VB charges you more upfront but with a guarantee that you're not going to encounter those things that make you want to hand the keys back. To me, that guarantee is worth real money. In time not spent at the shop and in stress not encountered and in budget not completely shattered by unexpected issues soon after buying it. Now how much extra someone is willing to pay depends -- and clearly it hasn't been enticing enough for me to buy as I don't have one :p. But I wouldn't discount the shop simply b/c the asking price is a bit over what NexGA or a private seller would ask.
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“Guarantees”? These are 30-50 year old airplanes, there are no guarantees. My opinion is only based on two planes I was familiar with that had known issues that made it onto the elusive VB lineup. One was a local plane remove from the rental li rip due to mx issues. They tried to sell it locally then made it to VB’s website under the bright shiny hangar lights. I posted about this several years ago. Now I’m sure every other plane except these two are perfect “guaranteeable” planes that won’t have any of the issues the entire rest of the fleet tends to get, but these two weren’t.

Don’t let me talk you out of it, if you think the plane/company are good deals, go for it.
 
eman1200 said:
“Guarantees”? These are 30-50 year old airplanes, there are no guarantees. My opinion is only based on two planes I was familiar with that had known issues that made it onto the elusive VB lineup. One was a local plane remove from the rental li rip due to mx issues. They tried to sell it locally then made it to VB’s website under the bright shiny hangar lights. I posted about this several years ago. Now I’m sure every other plane except these two are perfect “guaranteeable” planes that won’t have any of the issues the entire rest of the fleet tends to get, but these two weren’t.

Don’t let me talk you out of it, if you think the plane/company are good deals, go for it.
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The old Cessnas (pre '98) don't get the purhcase-guarantee I'm referring to... none are 30+ years old. It's all the newer ones, almost always post '2000 that are eligible for the money-back deal.
Anywho, I appreciate the background on them maybe picking up some scrap planes in the past. Regardless of who I eventually buy from (if anyone) a thorough prebuy would be in order. But who knows, maybe I'll just see if my 51 year old arrow can keep flying forever.

Back to our regular programming: let's hope the peak... err plateau... in pricing is short lived :D !
 
WDD said:
Van Bortel - is this a higher end dealer? Pay more but get a cleaner airplane less likely to be a lemon? Or is this just a more expensive option with little upside?
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In my experience, the higher end brokers will generally only represent high end aircraft. Their target customers know this and generally don’t mind paying a bit extra for the experience and assurance that the aircraft they are looking at is less likely to be a POS.

I have no direct purchasing experience with Van Bortel but I haven’t heard anything bad from those who have bought from them. I do have direct experience with a similar dealer and the transactions have always been positive, both on the buying and selling end of things.

Based on years worth of comments on this board, I’d venture to guess that there are only a handful of participants here that would be a potential client of a dealership like Van Bortel.
 
“Based on years worth of comments on this board, I’d venture to guess that there are only a handful of participants here that would be a potential client of a dealership like Van Bortel.”

Boom! Shaka-Laka.
 
I bought my plane from Van Bortel and was very happy with them and the process. I'm sure it was a bit of a premium, but they also took care of everything that came up in the pre-buy (even some that weren't airworthiness). All the paperwork was smooth and I felt like an actual customer, not like at a car dealership. @eman1200 saw the plane at Rough River, it still looks good after 5 years of my ownership.

Thread on my purchase
 
Hang 4 said:
I bought my plane from Van Bortel and was very happy with them and the process. I'm sure it was a bit of a premium, but they also took care of everything that came up in the pre-buy (even some that weren't airworthiness). All the paperwork was smooth and I felt like an actual customer, not like at a car dealership. @eman1200 saw the plane at Rough River, it still looks good after 5 years of my ownership.

Thread on my purchase
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pretty much what I said, everyone should buy their plane from the bortal! ;)
 
Hang 4 said:
I bought my plane from Van Bortel and was very happy with them and the process. I'm sure it was a bit of a premium, but they also took care of everything that came up in the pre-buy (even some that weren't airworthiness). All the paperwork was smooth and I felt like an actual customer, not like at a car dealership. @eman1200 saw the plane at Rough River, it still looks good after 5 years of my ownership.

Thread on my purchase
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Years ago sold bunch of brand new illuminated cockpit panels to VB (I believe for 182). So I assume they do (or did) pay attention to details. Funny story, the paperwork erroneously had their name as Van Brotel .
 
NealRomeoGolf said:
I think the problem with this thread is you're assuming a peak means prices will go down. What if the peak is actually the start of a plateau? You'll be waiting a while. The recession that everyone has predicted has not shown up. You still see people sending out warning signs so maybe something will crack. For now, enjoy the plateau.
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Excellent. This is exactly what everyone was saying before the last crash!
 
Hangar67 website has a list of planes with recent price changes. Interesting how most sellers that reduce prices are dropping 3-5%. Not enough to make a buyer move imho. I do think sellers are hoping it's a plateau, and buyers are hoping it's price adjustment time in the 10-20% range.

Hangar 67
 
Grum.Man said:
It's like buying a used car from Carmax or a used car lot. They are the same car, they probably did the same research on it, maybe even came from the same auctions. What you get for your money at Carmax is the sales experience and after sales support. Carmax says you can return a car for any reason in 30 days, so does Van Bortel. Van will make the experience turn key where as a private sale will require more effort on your part for pre buy, financing, and moving of the aircraft. If you are in the market for a Van Bortel level of aircraft, the price premium is probably of little concern.
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I needed a car pronto a few years ago so I went to carmax. Drove it a couple months/(year I don’t remember) and needed 10k valve work. Not covered by warranty but they fixed it for free. I was shocked.

Maybe something is triggered if repair cost is greater than 33% purchase price or whatever
 
I’m starting to see bank repos hit the market; last week there was a decent M20J offered thru sealed bid auction by a small bank.

Submitted a fair bid at a pre-Covid valuation using Jimmy Garrison’s price guide, but it wasn’t the winning bid.
 
“Got any hot stock tips?”

Depands what you mean by stock. If you’re talking about stocking up on aircraft, in preparation for the “MOSAIC boost”, good clean 150s, 152s, and 172s would be a conceptual recommendation.

“Foreseer in the Fog”
 
WDD said:
IBM, Kodak, Sun Micro, Xerox, Sony, RCA, American Motors, Pan American, Eastern, and GE
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Good tips. Let me also wheel out the ol' stock ticker and see how the my shares of Confederated Slave Holdings are doing.
1eLkFFjV5qaRc5mY_hasWTK6bSUFYEG_DAJbklA5Q7A.jpg
 
WDD said:
IBM, Kodak, Sun Micro, Xerox, Sony, RCA, American Motors, Pan American, Eastern, and GE
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I noticed you never mentioned whether to short vs long...
 
wsquare said:
“Got any hot stock tips?”

Depands what you mean by stock. If you’re talking about stocking up on aircraft, in preparation for the “MOSAIC boost”, good clean 150s, 152s, and 172s would be a conceptual recommendation.

“Foreseer in the Fog”
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This might explain why some people aren’t reducing their sale price right now.

When does mosaic become official? Year end? I suppose anything govt related is a crapshoot timing wise
 
An analogy. I have a lake house that I live in full time. We are in a drought and the lake is down 7'. With high interest rates, prices have dropped $125 a foot for any sales happening.
Do the math. My house is 7000 sq feet

But the market listings are still at that inflated price.

I can still sell as it's paid off for the new reality. Will I? Naw. I enjoy the house too much

Now imagine an airplane owner in the same boat. People don't have to sell, and until they do, prices will remain high. The ones that do sell, will be at a new market price and it will be harder to find that info out in the airplane market
 
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