How to replace airlines?

CJones

Final Approach
Joined
Mar 14, 2005
Messages
5,871
Location
Jawjuh
Display Name

Display name:
uHaveNoIdea
In reading the thread about AA filing Chap 11, I started thinking about what a viable replacement for the current airline business/operational model might look like.

If you could build a national air travel system from the ground up, what would it look like? Hub-and-spoke like current layout with different planes? More air-taxi/on-demand service for smaller airports? Is there a viable setup that can provide access to the national 'system' for the currently subsidized smaller airports without external subsidies? Different pricing model for ticketing?

What would your national air travel system look like?
 
what a viable replacement for the current airline business/operational model might look like.

If you could build a national air travel system from the ground up, what would it look like? Hub-and-spoke like current layout with different planes?

If there was the money to build the infrastructure, magnetic levitation trains would be the way I'd go. The trains could run 300+mph and runs could be scaled up or down to match passenger demand. Boarding times would be faster. The trains would be fueled by electricity from the most efficient/available/cheapest source, not a slave to Jet-A prices.

The main reason I like maglev trains is that unlike wheeled trains, they can accel/decelerate from cruise speed faster, which means faster average speeds, even if peak speeds are similar.

The short run infrastructure costs would be huge. The long run costs might be cheaper though. It's pretty much a moot point though, even China can't afford a maglev buildout. Their wheeled high speed trains have put pressure on airline travel though...
 
The thing about trains is that unless they use the existing right-of-way there would be all kinds of opposition to building new rail lines. I imagine China doesn't have that problem. If they want to build a rail line somewhere they just do it and the neighbors don't have much to say about it.
 
You don't. You provide no assistance when their financials self-destruct and you wait until there's only three left. ;)
 
In reading the thread about AA filing Chap 11, I started thinking about what a viable replacement for the current airline business/operational model might look like.

The airline industry has already been going through a rebirth, it's just that AMR's participation was deferred until the last possible second.

What would your national air travel system look like?

One that could cover its costs.
 
If you build a new airline system from scratch it will look like a bullet train hanging from elevated pylons running along the center sections of all the interstate highways in the country...

These highways already go where most folks want to go...
The land is already purchased...
The technology is in hand - with a new rail properly hung, 250 mph is well within current technology and not needing exotic new materials or motors... Higher speeds will come along as we go along...

Unfortunately, common sense is not what drives the Congress critters <sigh>

denny-o
 
Having worked in the railroad industry for a while now, I cannot count the times I've been asked about the possibility of a true high speed rail (HSR) system in the US. In short, the European/Chinese model will not work here. Ever.
We can wish for a fast (300+ MPH) train that would whisk us from, say, Atlanta to Los Angeles, but here are the realities that one has to consider. Just for a route from ATL-LAX.


  1. Acquiring the land for a right of way. It would be the wild west all over again. Land speculation on a scale unseen in human history. Eminent domain? Taking that much corridor land would cause a civil war.
  2. Total grade separation. Motorists in the USA cannot seem to keep from driving their McMobiles from in front of a 35 MPH freight train, let alone a HSR train. This means EVERY road has to bridged, Can you imagine?
  3. You CANNOT run HSR on freight tracks. The engineering of the curves alone prevent this, not to mention the tie ups of freight vs. passenger traffic. Curves are "banked" (called super elevation) like NASCAR and the amount of this elevation is based on the dominant speed of the traffic through the curve and the degrees of curvature involved in order to balance the load between the high and low rails. Think 100+ MPH vs. 40MPH. Look at the battles between Amtrak and the freight carriers we have now. Guess what, the freight carriers OWN the tracks and are FORCED to let Amtrak use their lines.

Let's say we overcome the costs and legalities of acquiring the land and building our track across the country.Commercial interests will dictate that the route look something like this: Atlanta-Birmingham-Jackson- Shreveport-Dallas-Phoenix-L.A. A pure rural routing makes it a single purpose road from ATL to LA costing tens of billions of dollars. Not gonna happen.
For round numbers lets call it 2100 miles. Even at 300 miles per hour that's 7 hours plus.
Does anyone really think that the citizens of all those cities in between are going to stand by and watch a 300 MPH wonder rip by that they cannot get on and go to La as well? So, now we have to make stops along the way. How many hours does that add to our 7 hours? More than a few.
Trains on single or even double (bi-directional traffic) are still a serial entity. One follows the other.
Planes fly over, fly past stop off here and there, you know the picture.
HSR can work in selected paired cities. The Northeast Amtrak corridor is a pretty good example of this. This is the ONLY place in the US where they own the tracks and let freight run as is feasible.
Bottom line. The USA is just to big geographically to realistically support a network of truly cross country high speed trains.
People will always want to fly direct in 3-4 hours. Check out the price/schedule of a ticket on Amtrak from Atlanta to, say Salt Lake City. You definitely won't think it's a bargain even compared to a plane ticket that would cover the airline's costs.
Example:
Amtrak. ATL-SLC Depart ATL at 8:04PM Thursday, Arrive SLC 11:05PM Sunday Stops in Charlottesville, Va (6 hour layover) Chicago (4 hour layover). That's 3 DAYS and 3 hours.
All this for $444.00 ONE WAY. No sleeper, meals NOT included.
Delta. One day advance purchase. One way. 4 Hours 10 Minutes. $719.00 average, and flights leave every 90 minutes.
Which will you choose if you NEED to go?
 
What would your national air travel system look like?

I think it's hopeless.

It's just a bad industry:

severe price competition
huge capital requirements (the planes)
big exposure to commodity prices (fuel)
reliance on labor that is unionized and can't be replaced if there's a strike.

Those four problems are pretty similar to those of the auto industry, which is another bad industry for investors.

If you want to make the industry healthy, you'd have to get rid of most of those problems, and I don't see any way it can be done.
 
I just got back from a business trip to San Francisco, and as my boss and I waited to board our flight yesterday we were discussing at what point will the airline industry almost completely collapse. Between the TSA crap we have to go through, the guy sitting next to me who thinks showers/deodorant are bad words, a losing business model and the completely full flights with everyone clamoring for overhead space delaying departure there has to be a breaking point. In my view this breaking point will be reached for leisure travel before business travel, but I think it's coming. Without business travel airlines would be screwed.

Rail (especially along existing highways) might be a viable option, but the airlines and the senators they have bought will never let it happen.



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
I think if you copy Southwest's philosophy, that'd pretty much be the way I'd do it.
 
I just got back from a business trip to San Francisco, and as my boss and I waited to board our flight yesterday we were discussing at what point will the airline industry almost completely collapse. Between the TSA crap we have to go through, the guy sitting next to me who thinks showers/deodorant are bad words, a losing business model and the completely full flights with everyone clamoring for overhead space delaying departure there has to be a breaking point. In my view this breaking point will be reached for leisure travel before business travel, but I think it's coming. Without business travel airlines would be screwed.

Rail (especially along existing highways) might be a viable option, but the airlines and the senators they have bought will never let it happen.



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

The definition of business travel has completely changed. There in-lies a big part of the problem
 
I just got back from a business trip to San Francisco, and as my boss and I waited to board our flight yesterday we were discussing at what point will the airline industry almost completely collapse. Between the TSA crap we have to go through, the guy sitting next to me who thinks showers/deodorant are bad words, a losing business model and the completely full flights with everyone clamoring for overhead space delaying departure there has to be a breaking point. In my view this breaking point will be reached for leisure travel before business travel, but I think it's coming. Without business travel airlines would be screwed.
I don't think the airline industry is going to collapse any time soon. We may complain about it but the airplanes are full of both business travelers and personal travelers. That's why we have threads about oversize people squeezing out their seatmates.
 
People will always want to fly direct in 3-4 hours. Check out the price/schedule of a ticket on Amtrak from Atlanta to, say Salt Lake City. You definitely won't think it's a bargain even compared to a plane ticket that would cover the airline's costs.
Example:
Amtrak. ATL-SLC Depart ATL at 8:04PM Thursday, Arrive SLC 11:05PM Sunday Stops in Charlottesville, Va (6 hour layover) Chicago (4 hour layover). That's 3 DAYS and 3 hours.
All this for $444.00 ONE WAY. No sleeper, meals NOT included.
Delta. One day advance purchase. One way. 4 Hours 10 Minutes. $719.00 average, and flights leave every 90 minutes.
Which will you choose if you NEED to go?

Hell, you can drive ATL-SLC faster than that. Even stopping to sleep in the middle, 40 hours or less total clock time... And it'd cost around $360 in gas for a round trip vs. the $444 one-way on the train. Yikes.
 
Trains are 19th Century technology being applied to the 21st Century. I think Keith nailed the reasons it won't work.

For commercial air travel to really work the hub system needs to go away. I think smaller, more effecient carriers are the way to go, offering direct flights, but I have no ideas how to accomplish that with an economically viable model.
 
Trains are 19th Century technology being applied to the 21st Century. I think Keith nailed the reasons it won't work.

For commercial air travel to really work the hub system needs to go away. I think smaller, more effecient carriers are the way to go, offering direct flights, but I have no ideas how to accomplish that with an economically viable model.

Economically viable depends on ticket prices and what people are willing to pay.

The simple solution would have been to ban anything bigger or faster than a DC-3 as the post 9-11 response. No need for TSA and all that nonsense. More pilots employed. Ticket prices go up, but, so what?
Those that need to travel would travel, others would skip the trip to Disney World and would be able to save more instead of borrowing more.

Win win

:goofy:
 
In reading the thread about AA filing Chap 11, I started thinking about what a viable replacement for the current airline business/operational model might look like.

If you could build a national air travel system from the ground up, what would it look like? Hub-and-spoke like current layout with different planes? More air-taxi/on-demand service for smaller airports? Is there a viable setup that can provide access to the national 'system' for the currently subsidized smaller airports without external subsidies? Different pricing model for ticketing?

What would your national air travel system look like?

Current hub and spoke works ok... Keep it....

TSA....... Dump it.

Less federal regulation for routes. Study it.....

Sell tickets based on weight.. fat people will hate that ...... :idea::yikes:
:rofl::rofl::rofl:
 
Sell tickets based on weight.. fat people will hate that ......

I like it. Shipping something via Air is based on gross weight and cube. Why should other air travel be different? Same airplanes. Same physics.
 
when i was giving rides at flight breakfasts i really wished we charged by the pound...
 
Excerpts from others:

....scaled up or down to match passenger demand...Boarding times would be faster...fueled by electricity from the most efficient/available/cheapest source, not a slave to Jet-A prices...

...a bullet _____ hanging from elevated pylons running along the center sections of all the interstate highways in the country...

Take these ideas and use 4-8 person pods which can be "sided" (or elevated, or lowered) to loading platforms. Pods entering traffic would join up with other pods to form long convoys. Pods in motion either contain passengers or are being relocated to known demand locations (perhaps in advance of demand using traffic prediction algorithms).

Sorta like this: http://www.shweeb.com/
 
Take these ideas and use 4-8 person pods which can be "sided" (or elevated, or lowered) to loading platforms. Pods entering traffic would join up with other pods to form long convoys. Pods in motion either contain passengers or are being relocated to known demand locations (perhaps in advance of demand using traffic prediction algorithms).

In 1967 I was 9 years old. My dad worked in the energy industry, and brought home a magazine called "In the Year 2000".

I remember something very similar to this sort of People Mover being postulated in that magazine -- right next to the flying cars and the electric production that was "too cheap to meter". :wink2:
 
Take these ideas and use 4-8 person pods which can be "sided" (or elevated, or lowered) to loading platforms. Pods entering traffic would join up with other pods to form long convoys. Pods in motion either contain passengers or are being relocated to known demand locations (perhaps in advance of demand using traffic prediction algorithms).

Sorta like this: http://www.shweeb.com/

Millions of dollars and they couldn't even automate moving baggage around without destroying it at Denver International when it opened.

Not thinking the engineers can successfully handle people cross country at high speeds yet if bags come out mangled from the world's "premiere" baggage system. (Which was scrapped, BTW.)
 
Millions of dollars and they couldn't even automate moving baggage around without destroying it at Denver International when it opened.

Not thinking the engineers can successfully handle people cross country at high speeds yet if bags come out mangled from the world's "premiere" baggage system. (Which was scrapped, BTW.)

How many people tried to fly and failed before the wright brothers? :D
 
Acela isn't a big success. It does work well none the less. It isn't always fast thanks to sharing the tracks with a lot of regionals, cummuter trains, etc. It does mean that there isn't a single crossing. That takes a lot of money! I live within earshot (about a mile?) and let me tell you, Acela is loud! Same as the C-17's that fly over us at 1500ft AGL!

Here is my system:
Buses> Transit Centers/Stations> Train> Major Airport>Dest.>Local Airport> Bus/Train
>Local Airport>VLG> Major
> Another Local Airport
 
Back
Top