How much will airplane prices drop in 2020?

[hindsight2020]

Starting things up is one thing, keeping them up is something else. There will no restaurant or bar visits in my future until a significant amount immunity exists in the population. Nor will I be setting foot inside an airliner until such time.

We're on the same boat. Already told my aging parents in PR it's not happening this year, which of course they concurred and saw coming a mile away. Our proposed flying summer trip to WA state this year got nixed, though to be fair, the DoD restricted me to 150 SM by UCMJ penalty, so it wasn't much of a choice.

 

[Morgan3820]

Recent events with tens of thousands of people congregating and basically “partying” all night long in dozens of cities across the country will prove once and for all .. shutdowns and forced social distancing were either a giant overreaction and incredible waste of wealth ..or we gonna have a lot of sick and dying people.

None of them were going to buy an airplane anytime soon. Just like the hippies of the sixties, they are not part of the regular economy. Where I am, with some small exceptions the economy is pretty good. I still can’t get an electrician to show up. The lady who cuts my hair works out of her home and is doing fine. I was looking at atvs and they were sold out. Lowes is always busy. I have a couple of out of state trips planned this summer and fall.

 

[Shepherd]

Simple answer. People did so, and it lead to accidents. Regs are generally written in blood. It has been a long time since the regs we rail against now were written, we have a tendency to forget that.

All the items you state you can do under EA-B. Go buy one if you do not want to build it.

Tim

Because expensive aircraft parts, installed by an expensive aircraft mechanic never fail.

I'm sure a case could be made for the argument that regs are as much written in bribes as they are in blood.
Just do a search and see what I mean. Those are the people who got caught. Tip of the iceberg.
Sorry, I'm in a glass half empty kind of mood today.

 

[tspear]

None of them were going to buy an airplane anytime soon. Just like the hippies of the sixties, they are not part of the regular economy. Where I am, with some small exceptions the economy is pretty good. I still can’t get an electrician to show up. The lady who cuts my hair works out of her home and is doing fine. I was looking at atvs and they were sold out. Lowes is always busy. I have a couple of out of state trips planned this summer and fall.

And people think the third class on the Titanic did not matter. In reality, the ship would work economically with the third class, but would not work with both first and second.

Those hippies you mentioned lived paycheck to paycheck. As such they have extremely high economic multiplies. Combined with sheer numbers they real or regular economy depends on them. Think about the hit the economy took in March and April. That was from the shutdown of the hippie economy.

Tim

Sent from my HD1907 using Tapatalk

 

[Half Fast]

Sorry, I'm in a glass half empty kind of mood today.

Go refill your glass. No, it's not too early to start drinking; it's June.

 

[WDD]

So.... post was about airplane prices, and now we're onto Hippie Economic Theory. I have no idea what that is. Is there a new Hippie Aircraft market? I have mental picture of a guy in his late 70's driving a 1969 lime green Ford Econoline Van to the local airport.

 

[Deelee]

I have mental picture of a guy in his late 70's driving a 1969 lime green Ford Econoline Van to the local airport.

Yeah, and probably getting into a high-wing.

 

[Tarheelpilot]

Starting things up is one thing, keeping them up is something else. There will no restaurant or bar visits in my future until a significant amount immunity exists in the population. Nor will I be setting foot inside an airliner until such time.

Now I'm only one guy, but I'm far from the only one who feels this way. Anyone who believes all businesses will return to revenue levels they saw in Feb as soon as they're allowed to open is a fool. Lots of businesses aren't going to see those levels for many moons and that's going to have in impact on the economy.



My mileage does vary. I know of and interact with many small businesses that are still afloat because of their PPP loan.

I think you are in a minority group. One small enough not to affect the overall recovery. That’s the beautiful thing about our country. You be you and I’ll be me. Nothing wrong with either path.

 

[Tarheelpilot]

Yeah, and probably getting into a high-wing.

With a handle on his head ... sorry meant man bun

 

[Half Fast]

Since when do hippies need an airplane to get high?

 

[tspear]

Since when do hippies need an airplane to get high?

lmao, well played!

Tim

 

[Juliet Hotel]

I think you are in a minority group. One small enough not to affect the overall recovery.

I think its a larger minority than you suspect. Time will tell.

 

[LoLPilot]

I was in college during the '09-is recession. My financial prof opened each class with a discussion of news, and market news was (surprise!) one of his favorite topics for us to bring up. One of my classmates brought up something about seeing a new megayacht and being surprised that someone would build that in the recession economy because there would be no buyer for it.

My professor responded that some people are "recession proof." He said that once you reach a certain financial point, you are so diverse and have so many different income streams that you are somewhat untouchable in terms of market hardship. You may have better or worse days than others, but you don't really have bad days. He mentioned that things like megayachts, private golf clubs, exclusive resorts, etc don't really see the ebb and flow of most other businesses because their clients remain unaffected by those market forces. I think he mentioned private aircraft in that same paragraph.

That's certainly not to say that it applies universally to aircraft owners. Certainly there will be people who try and minimize expenses by getting rid of their plane, and I would imagine that those are people who have an airplane in lieu of something like a speedboat for the weekend. But let's think about people like surgeons, lawyers, local celebrities, etc. I doubt that they will sell their planes.

 

[Morgan3820]

This is what I was trying to say previously. Obviously, You said much better that I did

 

[LoLPilot]

This is what I was trying to say previously. Obviously, You said much better that I did

Sorry I didn't read all of the pages. Didn't mean to re-state what you were getting at, my bad.

 

[Morgan3820]

I am glad you did. As I said, you did a better job.

 

[tspear]

This is what I was trying to say previously. Obviously, You said much better that I did

If that was what your were trying to say, I totally missed it!

Tim

 

[thomasdr72]

From my non-scientific window shopping last week, it looks like the prices are continuing to climb...

 

[LoLPilot]

Y'know, one thing I will say was that a search on here a few months back was quite the eye opener - I found a thread about asking for purchase advice and one of the bits of advice given to the OP in the thread was "if you are considering buying an airplane and can't afford to pay cash for the airplane and not lose sleep over the decision, then you can't afford the airplane." That really put it into perspective for me how slum-spec my flying forays are

 

[Salty]

Y'know, one thing I will say was that a search on here a few months back was quite the eye opener - I found a thread about asking for purchase advice and one of the bits of advice given to the OP in the thread was "if you are considering buying an airplane and can't afford to pay cash for the airplane and not lose sleep over the decision, then you can't afford the airplane." That really put it into perspective for me how slum-spec my flying forays are

I can talk all day about all the things I think you shouldn't do that I've done. Some because I learned my lesson and will never do them again, and some because I know it's a bad idea, but I'll do it again anyway.

An airplane is an irresponsible purchase in almost every case I can imagine. I'm shopping for my second one.

 

[Half Fast]

I can talk all day about all the things I think you shouldn't do that I've done. Some because I learned my lesson and will never do them again, and some because I know it's a bad idea, but I'll do it again anyway.

An airplane is an irresponsible purchase in almost every case I can imagine. I'm shopping for my second one.

Agreed, and I'm shopping for my first one.

But many other things fall into that same irresponsible category. When I was racing, the consensus philosophy was not to put any more money on the track than you were willing to hold between your fingers and touch with a match. One on-track bump or oops could wad your machine into a piece of scrap.

Aviation isn't quite that bad, but I carry over the same attitude.

 

[danhagan]

Just listed an RV-10 for a friend on Barnstormers at $209K...sold within a week..

Glad to hear that ... one quick question: Why did "your friend" not list it themselves? They'd know more of the pertinent info.

Mine (Tiger) sold basically in 6 hours with several other buyers that forwarded contracts HOPING buyer #1 would fall through (he was financing). I love the RV7A, but do miss the Tiger ...

 

[Tarheelpilot]

I think its a larger minority than you suspect. Time will tell.

I agree. In some parts of the country it already is being told.

we are both biased.

 

[Juliet Hotel]

I agree. In some parts of the country it already is being told.

we are both biased.

We are ALL biased. One of the flaws of human nature I suppose.

I'm often wrong so you're probably right about all this. But here's a different data which you may or may not already be considering in your calculations. I work in trucking and my company's business model makes heavy use of leased equipment as opposed to owned. A few of those leases are due to expire in the next couple months. Three months ago I was doing lunches with our vendors, beginning the usual discussions of what whether or not we're planning to lease new equipment to replace the outgoing (we were) and what changes to the spec we'll be wanting to make. A trucking company needs trucks to operate so these discussions are pretty common.

That was 3 months ago. Our business levels have tanked since then and we have no idea when they'll return to previous levels. So there is no way we're going to sign 6 year paper on new equipment this year. Those trucks will go away later this year and they won't be replaced by new trucks. When that happens, we will likely cover the work those trucks were used for with parked pieces of our fleet and/or some short term rentals when necessary. Or we will sign short term leases on equipment from our vendors rental fleet as they are all offering dirt cheap deals right now because so much of their rental fleets are parked.

Either way, the bottom line is we are currently running trucks that will not result in new trucks being purchased either by us nor by our rental vendors. And yep we're just one company. But the eagerness of my vendors to offer dirt cheap short term leases on parked rental equipment tells me we're far from the only company that won't be ordering trucks or trailers this year. In fact if you're in market for a some decent used dry vans let me know. We're looking to off load a few.

 

[Daleandee]

Yeah, and probably getting into a high-wing.

That's cold man ... real cold. Spot on, but it was ... cold!

 

[Adam Weiss]

Glad to hear that ... one quick question: Why did "your friend" not list it themselves? They'd know more of the pertinent info.

Mine (Tiger) sold basically in 6 hours with several other buyers that forwarded contracts HOPING buyer #1 would fall through (he was financing). I love the RV7A, but do miss the Tiger ...

Brain cancer.
It’s a tragedy

 

[danhagan]

Brain cancer.
It’s a tragedy

Very good of you to help the family. We had 2 AC same situation over at the Class C airport. One of the guys did like you but is a mechanic, annualed the plane and fixed a bunch to get the wife as much as possible in the sale.

 

[Palmpilot]

Dr. Fauci had a great quote early on. Something along the lines of "If we do it right, then people will complain we over reacted".
The problem with social distancing, it is a tool of last resort. And without descent testing, it is a sledge hammer solution and used on a wide scale because health policy experts are blind by the lack of data. Testing allows health policy to be aimed; until then you have the wonderful bazooka solution.

Tim

I think we did "descent testing" on the stock market recently.

 

[Palmpilot]

So.... post was about airplane prices, and now we're onto Hippie Economic Theory. I have no idea what that is. Is there a new Hippie Aircraft market? I have mental picture of a guy in his late 70's driving a 1969 lime green Ford Econoline Van to the local airport.

Ultralights? Wingsuits?

 

[Palmpilot]

We are ALL biased. One of the flaws of human nature I suppose.

I'm often wrong so you're probably right about all this. But here's a different data which you may or may not already be considering in your calculations. I work in trucking and my company's business model makes heavy use of leased equipment as opposed to owned. A few of those leases are due to expire in the next couple months. Three months ago I was doing lunches with our vendors, beginning the usual discussions of what whether or not we're planning to lease new equipment to replace the outgoing (we were) and what changes to the spec we'll be wanting to make. A trucking company needs trucks to operate so these discussions are pretty common.

That was 3 months ago. Our business levels have tanked since then and we have no idea when they'll return to previous levels. So there is no way we're going to sign 6 year paper on new equipment this year. Those trucks will go away later this year and they won't be replaced by new trucks. When that happens, we will likely cover the work those trucks were used for with parked pieces of our fleet and/or some short term rentals when necessary. Or we will sign short term leases on equipment from our vendors rental fleet as they are all offering dirt cheap deals right now because so much of their rental fleets are parked.

Either way, the bottom line is we are currently running trucks that will not result in new trucks being purchased either by us nor by our rental vendors. And yep we're just one company. But the eagerness of my vendors to offer dirt cheap short term leases on parked rental equipment tells me we're far from the only company that won't be ordering trucks or trailers this year. In fact if you're in market for a some decent used dry vans let me know. We're looking to off load a few.

I remember hearing on one of the financial channels, years ago, that the Dow Transportation Index is often considered to be a leading indicator.

 

[Ventucky Red]

I remember hearing on one of the financial channels , years ago, that the Dow Transportation Index is often considered to be a leading indicator.

Have a friend that is a travel agent, and another that is in the boat repair business. Call it a homespun economic indicator but when folks are spending money on lavish vacations and getting the "holes in the water" fixed... well you can see where this is going.