How much will airplane prices drop in 2020?

I happen to think that we are in the best time ever for individual US light aircraft ownership: plentiful and capable used aircraft at reasonable prices, generally increasing acceptance of owner assistance by A&Ps and IAs, wider availability of parts from many suppliers that has driven prices down (e.g. new cylinders bought on-line), portable electronics making a simple, bare-bones equipped VFR aircraft more practical for going places, more practical and better E-AB aircraft than before, supported by better kit manufacturers, and Avgas prices holding at reasonable levels.

That said, the common thread through most of the above is involvement... If your wish is a hands off consumer flying experience, the game has changed from 1970s-Everyman renting a new and shiny C172 to the modern counterpart being a wealthy sole owner flying his Cirrus with high dollar dealer maintenance. The rules of flying for 2020-Everyman have changed and so has the type of person who can and/or will play. Personally, I'm happy to be much involved with my aircraft and happy to be doing it in a period when I think it is better than ever before.
 
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With regard to the future of GA, I heard a candid comment by a high level administrator at the FAA a while back who basically said Southwest Airlines is what has dealt the the most severe blow to GA. Before SWA, commercial air travel was inconvenient and expensive. SWA came in serving smaller markets with plentiful, cheap and easy flights.

Remember flying SWA pre-9/11? The flights between Dallas and Houston departed every 30 mins. If you had a plastic boarding pass from a later flight and there was room on the one departing now, you could just walk right up and get on. 9/11 changed that a lot, but not before the convenience of SWA pulled a lot of people away from GA.
 
MIFlyer said:
what about being able to change an alternator with the proper Chrysler part from Napa on your plane.

Today, you must pay a mechanic $95/hr plus buy a $400 part. Let's call it $600 plus a lot of hubbub to arrange things with your A&P, be someplace with a mechanic/etc.
vs
Look up part number, drive to NAPA and buy it for $100, install it, make logbook entry, done in one afternoon without having to coordinate with anybody else?


Why again is the avionics stuff a different price for certified? (especially autopilots) and we have created a oligopoly where they get to say which airframes they can be used in?

Why can't I run 93 Octane non ethanol lead free gas legally in the aux tanks for taxi and cruise and 100LL in the mains for takeoff and landing?

Why does an LED landing light need to be certified? It puts out more light and causes less load on the electrical system...

Why do door seals need to be "airplane" door gaskets?

That's all the stuff I'm talking about. Even an engine swap is something a good portion of people could do, but it becomes a much higher burden if I have to pay an A&P to do it.

PS, none of this is a dig on mechanics, I just hate that the regs require that things be done this way with only a few thousand people being allowed to do the work and you have to buy a special part from a special place, vs it being up to the owner. I would also put enhanced liability protection in for the mechanics so they'd be better off overall, even with less busy work to do.
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Simple answer. People did so, and it lead to accidents. Regs are generally written in blood. It has been a long time since the regs we rail against now were written, we have a tendency to forget that.

All the items you state you can do under EA-B. Go buy one if you do not want to build it.

Tim
 
tspear said:
Simple answer. People did so, and it lead to accidents. Regs are generally written in blood. It has been a long time since the regs we rail against now were written, we have a tendency to forget that.

All the items you state you can do under EA-B. Go buy one if you do not want to build it.

Tim
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By that logic, if the bolded above were the true motivation, EAB wouldn't be allowed to fly over the same heads part 121 airliners currently do. The existence of EAB allowances in the first place tear apart the "safety motivation" canard pretty readily.

To be clear, nobody is arguing for revenue ops with EAB mx rules. We're talking about recreational ops, just like EAB.
 
tspear said:
Simple answer. People did so, and it lead to accidents. Regs are generally written in blood. It has been a long time since the regs we rail against now were written, we have a tendency to forget that.

All the items you state you can do under EA-B. Go buy one if you do not want to build it.

Tim
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I hear you. the problem is EAB are expensive and tiny compared to certified planes, though they seem great if they meet your mission.

I'd argue though that a risk/reward calc needs to be redone. when they passed that, barnstormers were flying around and everyone was going gangbusters. Now, it's about trying to keep it going. I'm happy to stencil "EXPERIMENTAL" on it so no passengers are tricked, but I absolutely have the right to b*tch about regulations I disagree with, it's a democracy
 
hindsight2020 said:
By that logic, if the bolded above were the true motivation, EAB wouldn't be allowed to fly over the same heads part 121 airliners currently do. The existence of EAB allowances in the first place tear apart the "safety motivation" canard pretty readily.

To be clear, nobody is arguing for revenue ops with EAB mx rules. We're talking about recreational ops, just like EAB.
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Actually pull the approved language on most EA-B and flight of populated areas is prohibited. Only in the more recent versions (I believe the change was just over a decade ago), is flight over populated areas allowed. And this was from what I read, largely a result of kits becoming safer. But, I was reading the press, so who knows the truth?

Tim
 
Possibly one sign of what is to come in sales of GA aircraft—I’ve seen two 182Ts listed for sale that were not through the single dominant broker. I haven’t seen that many in a couple of years. Either there are more coming to market from individuals or the dominant broker is slowing down in terms of what they are snapping up.
 
:finishes reading entire thread:

Welp I’m depressed.
 
How much will airplane prices drop in 2020?

Late to the party ... by the looks of the Barnstormers prices, they're actually UP quite a bit. Now I know that is ASKING price, but the Tigers in there in the 80k range aren't anywhere near as well equipped as the Tiger I sold 2 years ago for near 60k. They don't even reduce price for high time engines, they state "only burns a quart every 6-10 hours" ...

The RV6's usually were 45-57k, but am now seeing a lot of 80K RV6's which is amazing ... decent RV7's were 100-120k
 
danhagan said:
How much will airplane prices drop in 2020?

Late to the party ... by the looks of the Barnstormers prices, they're actually UP quite a bit. Now I know that is ASKING price, but the Tigers in there in the 80k range aren't anywhere near as well equipped as the Tiger I sold 2 years ago for near 60k.
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Please stop reminding me I couldn't get buying your Tiger past my wife. I of course keep point out the current prices. :D
 
Georgeyk17 said:
Should drop like the stock market!
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Might be that plane owners are still working under the mindset of pre COVID economy, double digit stock gains, etc.

I also see planes listed with a lot of snow in background of pictures - so might be plane sales are slowing.
 
I watch the prices every day...they certainly haven’t started down at all. In fact it looks like “value proposition” is trending the opposite given the clapped out engines and panels I’m seeing.
 
Similar to real estate or boat market (big ticket items) best to keep an eye on inventory levels and corrections don’t happen overnight. Effects of today may not be seen for 1-2 years or at least the end of the year for the Covid related stuff imo.
Real estate market trying to be propped up by low interest rates and slowing down production. Again similar strategies could be enacted in other industries like aviation.
 
bflynn said:
The stock market isn't dropping. In fact, in the last 3 months, I've gotten nearly a 25% gain.
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Depends on your starting point. From a YTD perspective a lot of people are down. 2020 might break even or up a few. Not like 2019
 
I just sold my mother's house. My starting time was 1 week after the bottom.
 
Even a blind squirrel gets a nut once in a while.
 
atbroome said:
Please stop reminding me I couldn't get buying your Tiger past my wife. I of course keep point out the current prices. :D
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Just listed an RV-10 for a friend on Barnstormers at $209K...sold within a week.
If you have a desirable plane, there is someone who will buy it.
I don't see that changing any time soon.
 
Adam Weiss said:
Just listed an RV-10 for a friend on Barnstormers at $209K...sold within a week.
If you have a desirable plane, there is someone who will buy it.
I don't see that changing any time soon.
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I saw that on Facebook and TAP -- Congrats on selling so quickly, looked like a nice airplane
 
Since the 2008 recession, the total number of light GA airplanes built has been low. Only in 2019 did the entire worldwide industry exceed 1000 piston singles - for the entire planet. Last year Cessna built 196 total piston singles. Against these low production numbers, you have to consider those aircraft removed from the fleet from old age, neglect, weather damage, and crashes. The supply side of the equation, outside of Cirrus and a lesser extent Diamond, is tiny compared to the legacy fleet. You may not see all that much of a decrease.

Here's an example. One of the more recommended airplanes on this board is the Grumman Tiger, There is one for sale on Trade-A-Plane and two on Barnstormers. if you were selling, would you be motivated to lower your price?
 
WDD said:
Might be that plane owners are still working under the mindset of pre COVID economy, double digit stock gains, etc.
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Employment numbers in today are impressively high. Not looking like Covid hurts as much as we thought it would.

People adapt wherever they can.
 
denverpilot said:
Employment numbers in today are impressively high. Not looking like Covid hurts as much as we thought it would.

People adapt wherever they can.
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How much of that bump was PPP? I know a few local restaurants and others brought staff back because of PPP loan/grants. They do not expect to stay employed....

Tim
 
Point is that if they’re back working and people are out paying for services then ppp won’t be needed. It did it’s job in starting things up
 
tspear said:
How much of that bump was PPP? I know a few local restaurants and others brought staff back because of PPP loan/grants. They do not expect to stay employed....
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Every business owner I talked to either never got PPP before it was long gone or couldn’t use it before various deadlines or because of various strings attached.

YMMV. It didn’t appear to help anyplace except medium to large corps. And the banks of course. They made out like bandits as always.
 
Most of the people who own planes aren't in the financial position to be overly harmed by coronavirus. Yeah, people are taking a hit, but few and far between are the guys so heavily hit they've gotta list their C182 for 80% it's value.

Stocks are already approaching all time highs again and there's nowhere to go but up at this point. I don't think the plane market was affected much at all.
 
Y'know, it'd be nice if the looters could stop grabbing electronics and maybe pick up a nice Warrior with a low time engine and good radios, then sell it to me for about $30k.....

On the upside of things, there are going to be some great deals on NIB merchandise at the flea markets soon.
 
WDD said:
Point is that if they’re back working and people are out paying for services then ppp won’t be needed. It did it’s job in starting things up
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Starting things up is one thing, keeping them up is something else. There will no restaurant or bar visits in my future until a significant amount immunity exists in the population. Nor will I be setting foot inside an airliner until such time.

Now I'm only one guy, but I'm far from the only one who feels this way. Anyone who believes all businesses will return to revenue levels they saw in Feb as soon as they're allowed to open is a fool. Lots of businesses aren't going to see those levels for many moons and that's going to have in impact on the economy.



denverpilot said:
Every business owner I talked to either never got PPP before it was long gone or couldn’t use it before various deadlines or because of various strings attached.

YMMV. It didn’t appear to help anyplace except medium to large corps. And the banks of course. They made out like bandits as always.
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My mileage does vary. I know of and interact with many small businesses that are still afloat because of their PPP loan.
 
My son in law has a 172M and aBarron and wants to buy a helicopter. The 172 is going up for sale. It’s going to be interesting to see how it’s value will be effected by the virus.
 
Juliet Hotel said:
Starting things up is one thing, keeping them up is something else. There will no restaurant or bar visits in my future until a significant amount immunity exists in the population. Nor will I be setting foot inside an airliner until such time.
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Recent events with tens of thousands of people congregating and basically “partying” all night long in dozens of cities across the country will prove once and for all .. shutdowns and forced social distancing were either a giant overreaction and incredible waste of wealth ..or we gonna have a lot of sick and dying people.
 
Warmi said:
Recent events with tens of thousands of people congregating and basically “partying” all night long in dozens of cities across the country will prove once and for all .. shutdowns and forced social distancing were either a giant overreaction and incredible waste of wealth ..or we gonna have a lot of sick and dying people.
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Dr. Fauci had a great quote early on. Something along the lines of "If we do it right, then people will complain we over reacted".
The problem with social distancing, it is a tool of last resort. And without descent testing, it is a sledge hammer solution and used on a wide scale because health policy experts are blind by the lack of data. Testing allows health policy to be aimed; until then you have the wonderful bazooka solution.

Tim
 
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