How much will airplane prices drop in 2020?

PlaneFlyer said:
As a point of reference, I recently sold my 182 for a bit over 70% of the original price I listed it for on Trade-A-Plane. List price seemed optimistic and was $12.5k over what I bought it for 2.5 years ago, but commensurate with other planes of its vintage listed on those sites (I did bring the avionics into the 21st century since I purchased it). Based on some significant engine items discovered in the prebuy and the fact the the engine was last overhauled when Reagan was in the White House, I think the price we settled on was fair for both parties.

I’m definitely interested in seeing how the market will react and trying to time it appropriately. While we’re taking a calculated break from aircraft ownership, we’ll be looking to get back into it in the next 4-6 years.
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No offense meant here, but you managed to provide a lot of information while leaving out any detail that would help answer the question. You give a percentage of one data point and then a dollar figure in the other, so there’s no way to compare the numbers. Might as well have left the numbers out completely.
 
The Cessna market is obscene. I've been in it trying to convince my wife to let me buy, watching as I could afford an 80s 182 and now just a 60s 182. She said yes before this situation and now is scared.

The problem there is everyone who is becoming less nimble with age is switching to a 182, 177 or 172. Those purchasers have ample resources. This whole situation is impacting those who don't, those who have to work. I don't know if it will hit the high or even the middle market. It surely will hit the low end, "affordable" or training segment.

Guarantee Beechcraft exits GA. They'll probably axe 182s given that even this high wing guy would buy Cirrus at that price point. Mooney is gone, permanently.
 
Salty said:
No offense meant here, but you managed to provide a lot of information while leaving out any detail that would help answer the question. You give a percentage of one data point and then a dollar figure in the other, so there’s no way to compare the numbers. Might as well have left the numbers out completely.
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Noted. I would contend that “70% of list price” actually provides a better gauge of the market with respect list versus sales price than any specific dollar amount would. Without an in depth knowledge of the specific aircraft, and given the variability in condition/upgrades of 50+ year-old planes, the dollar figure of the actual sale provides limited usefulness in gauging market reality.
 
Cogito said:
A Flight Academy here in Southern California uses LSA's to make ATP's, except they use Tecnam Twins for multi-engine. With those planes and full-motion simulators the students are getting a solid education in modern systems and avionics for a little less money. The students and Flight Instructors looked young and fit, useful load won't be an issue, just hope the new economy will have a place for them.
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Don't get me wrong - I'm a big fan of innovation, disrupting the status quo, etc. IMHO the weight restriction for an LSA should be taken up to 6,000 and allowed 4 seats, and 200 hp max. But as it is now, you really need the full size planes; at least that's the conclusion I've come to from seeing almost all flight schools use the Skyhawks and Archers, either old or buying new in bulk orders.
 
Warmi said:
It will drop for sure - GA is basically a luxury/leisure industry and with 30+ millions of people out of work ( with a lot of small business owners being currently wiped out ) how is it going to increase ?

Now how much it will drop ... who knows, we are still in the process of committing an economic suicide so probably nobody knows ..
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you might be right, but it appears that you are overlooking one thing. The government is in the midst of effectively PRINTING well over a a trillion dollars. If there are more of those dollar bills floating around, they will be worth less.
 
Bug H said:
<excuse the venting>

I've been off-on-off-on looking since 2003 (SEL/160-200 hp). Umpteen military moves didn't help, but that's all "part of the program," suitable for a different thread. *Finally* in a good cash spot to get serious (not inclined to finance an airplane) - started shopping TAP/Barnstormers and ... HOLY SMOKES! - You want HOW MUCH for a 196x/197x C172 with a run out motor and cooked radios?! Price of entry, insurance, and hangar availability are REALLY making this a challenge for a regular guy these days. Did I miss something or did GA silently 'boom' when I wasn't looking? (I would certainly embrace that, but I'm not seeing it from my chair)

Don't get me wrong - I'm grateful I'm still employed, and I have been known to be "mistaken" many times. Just ask any one of my wives o_O

<venting over... I need some prayer time>
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Cessna 172 prices were driven to ridiculous levels because of the flight training demand.
There's lots of other alternatives that did not "benefit" from that. The 180 hp -200 hp Mooneys seem to go for much more reasonable prices, and offer impressive performance as a personal plane. That's just one example.
 
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I would love a Mooney. Went with a Skyhawk instead, given that my Mx and Insurance budgets can't even begin to touch what it would take for a retract.
 
wheaties said:
The problem there is everyone who is becoming less nimble with age is switching to a 182, 177 or 172. Those purchasers have ample resources.
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GRG55 said:
Cessna 172 prices were driven to ridiculous levels because of the flight training demand.
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Something else I forgot to mention earlier... friend with a 172P is getting about two letters a month from brokers telling him he can sell his plane for $100K, guess that adds a little fuel to the fire.
 
I wonder why the other Big 2 dont make a high wing trainer. Seems like they are letting Cessna walk away with the people that like high wings or like the high wing accessibility segment. 2 doors with shade that allow passengers to easily get into the plane seems like a no-brainer. Does Cessna have some type of patent on the high wing design?
 
charheep said:
I wonder why the other Big 2 dont make a high wing trainer. Seems like they are letting Cessna walk away with the people that like high wings or like the high wing accessibility segment. 2 doors with shade that allow passengers to easily get into the plane seems like a no-brainer. Does Cessna have some type of patent on the high wing design?
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Lockheed Martin has to pay Cessna a handsome royalty for every C-130 Hercules they make! ;)

450px-Lockheed_C-130_Hercules.jpg
 
charheep said:
I wonder why the other Big 2 dont make a high wing trainer. Seems like they are letting Cessna walk away with the people that like high wings or like the high wing accessibility segment. 2 doors with shade that allow passengers to easily get into the plane seems like a no-brainer. Does Cessna have some type of patent on the high wing design?
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Cirrus seems to be doing ok with low wings: https://generalaviationnews.com/2019/03/20/top-10-best-selling-airplanes-of-2018/
 
Sinistar said:
What percent of this recession's unemployed are also aircraft owners?

Flight schools...sure. But doctors, dentists, lawyers, engineers, medical professionals, plumbers, fed workers, state workers, city workers, heck even teachers are still getting paid to teach virtually.
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Lots of aircraft owners are also business owners. Lots of businesses are closed. Not all will come back. Of those that come back, not all will profitable again for quite a while. Those are conditions that sometimes motivate folks to get rid of the expensive toys for a while.
 
charheep said:
I wonder why the other Big 2 dont make a high wing trainer. Seems like they are letting Cessna walk away with the people that like high wings or like the high wing accessibility segment. 2 doors with shade that allow passengers to easily get into the plane seems like a no-brainer. Does Cessna have some type of patent on the high wing design?
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I don't think they need to. Both of these below are well within Skyhawk prices...

Cirrus trainer:
https://cirrusaircraft.com/trac/

UND switching to low wings:
https://www.piper.com/press-releases/piper-aircraft-inc-takes-112-aircraft-trainer-order-und/
 
GrummanBear said:
Maybe...but the demand and prices aren’t hurt by the dogmatic exaltation of 172s and 182s in places like POA.
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Excuse me ... that’s The 172 and The 182 mister. :cool:

It still comes back to Supply and Demand. Add in a dash of irrational. An airplane isn’t a commodity. More emotion vs selling a bushel of grain. If a seller doesn’t get a price that he/ she sees as showing respect might decide not to sell and wait - which might explain why some planes sit on a ramp until they rot away.

Flying is an expensive hobby - owing vs renting goes higher on the luxury curve. Chances are if you’re well enough off to own vs rent you’re not living paycheck to paycheck. Maybe there’s a bunch of old guys chasing buying an airplane with retirement money and fewer older airplanes coupled with high costs of instruments. (Having your panel cost more than your airframe is somewhat new.)
 
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I think it's quite possible on the high end (King-air/PC-12/etc.) the demand (and thus prices) will go up. Executives on the cusp of corporate & charter decision have a new and better reason to avoid commercial flying. For the businesses that survive, there could be growth. Or not......
 
During a downturn, aircraft prices have historically followed suit, however, parts and maintenance never seem to "suffer". Would also like to see some discounted panel products but with the backlog at Avionics shops I doubt that will happen.
 
Salty said:
a percentage of one data point and then a dollar figure in the other, so there’s no way to compare the numbers. Might as well have left the numbers out completely.
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Must be a journalist. My guess it's their don't repeat the same word too often training. They know they should write gallons per hour twice or three time or however many it takes then the training kicks in - on nooooooo. Can't do that! So they change one of them to some other units which may or may not be useful in the context.

Very often there is not enough information left to reconstruct the numbers in useful terms.

It's a tragic disease that ruins completely many a promising newspaper article.
 
Salty said:
No offense meant here, but you managed to provide a lot of information while leaving out any detail that would help answer the question. You give a percentage of one data point and then a dollar figure in the other, so there’s no way to compare the numbers. Might as well have left the numbers out completely.
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Eh - it is his choice on whether to post or not, and what level of details he wants to share. While not the complete data set, still grateful for whatever he wishes to share.
 
wheaties said:
Guarantee Beechcraft exits GA.
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I mean, they effectively have. They've (Cessna) been pedaling the same trash for years and bought Beechcraft to remove competition. Most people would surprised to learn you can actually still buy a new Baron/Bonanza.. which, why would you? Spend a ton of money on a less capable plane than its 40 year old cheaper predecessor

The TTx could (and should) have been a Cirrus killer but Textron didn't realize you have to actually market a plane in order to sell it

Cessna/Beech display at Osh '18 was pathetic.. you really couldn't have put *less* effort into a display if you tried

Textron is focusing on corporate and commercial/turbine applications. Cessna exists strictly as a feeder for flight schools

Piper puts an earnest focus on the ga buyer individual with a nice product line for a multitude of buyers

Mooney.. if you want to go fast in a tiny plane with a panel in your face while burning little gas that's fine. Otherwise they also largely stopped innovating.. but I blame management; that composite trainer they were working on was sick. Too bad they abandoned it. Most buyers have a wife/pax who aren't aviaholics like us and don't get off on performance figures, they want something that feels new, is comfortable, and is perceived as safe
 
Adrien said:
... it is not unreasonable to think that some people would attempt to cut expenses and get rid of their airplanes.
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It's not always voluntary.

Repossession is a big factor, since a lot of planes are bought for pleasure using borrowed money (which is a bad idea, IMHO).

Repossessed Cirruses were showing up on the market until 2012. I looked at a repo then, and the banker (who specialized in general aviation loans) told me that typically the aircraft owner held onto the plane as long as possible, no longer flew it, skipped annual inspections, all in an attempt to scrape together loan payments to keep their plane, until they finally couldn't. He said that at repo time, the owner was typically very pleasant and even relieved to finally put the experience behind them.

The question is, how much did the prices in general dropped during 2008 crisis?
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For late-model Cirruses, I'd guess prices were depressed about 10%. I was shopping then, and I recall that tremendous bargains did not present themselves, but there was plenty to choose from, as planes were not moving. There was no point in being in a hurry to buy back then.
 
Tantalum said:
Cessna/Beech display at Osh '18 was pathetic.. you really couldn't have put *less* effort into a display if you tried
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They seem to be hiring easy to the eyes young females as sales staff for their piston stuff. Either it's a halfassed attempt at the younger generation (like they'd buy a 172 factory new) or more likely the dirty old man with money demographics. Although maybe it's the former because one is rather famous in the aviation Instagram/social media circles, and just bought her own aircraft for her own hangar home...

And it was one of the LSA Cub knockoffs. Nothing like crapping where you eat :fingerwag:
 
WDD said:
It still comes back to Supply and Demand. Add in a dash of irrational. An airplane isn’t a commodity. More emotion vs selling a bushel of grain. If a seller doesn’t get a price that he/ she sees as showing respect might decide not to sell and wait - which might explain why some planes sit on a ramp until they rot away.
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I agree that price is all about supply and demand. Always has been. My sense is that demand is falling away but suppliers haven’t picked up on that.

btw, the reverse is true. If the seller is asking for a price that doesn’t show respect for the buyer, the plane is likely to sit and rot. I’ve been looking and so many airplane are so high priced that there doesn’t seem to be an entry bid point that isn’t disrespectful. You say your 40k plane is worth 60? Bidding logic says I need to tell you 20 if I want to eventually compromise at the fair price.

Unfortunately, there are some that are even worse. I’ve seen a VFR 172N with a ragged out engine posted at 80k. That’s 35 max, so what am I supposed to do with that, offer 0?
 
bflynn said:
I agree that price is all about supply and demand. Always has been. My sense is that demand is falling away but suppliers haven’t picked up on that.

btw, the reverse is true. If the seller is asking for a price that doesn’t show respect for the buyer, the plane is likely to sit and rot. I’ve been looking and so many airplane are so high priced that there doesn’t seem to be an entry bid point that isn’t disrespectful. You say your 40k plane is worth 60? Bidding logic says I need to tell you 20 if I want to eventually compromise at the fair price.

Unfortunately, there are some that are even worse. I’ve seen a VFR 172N with a ragged out engine posted at 80k. That’s 35 max, so what am I supposed to do with that, offer 0?
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Some cases it’s the guy doesn’t want to sell the plane, his wife does. So he can honestly say “I am trying to sell it honey, people are just not buying”
 
bflynn said:
I agree that price is all about supply and demand. Always has been. My sense is that demand is falling away but suppliers haven’t picked up on that.

btw, the reverse is true. If the seller is asking for a price that doesn’t show respect for the buyer, the plane is likely to sit and rot. I’ve been looking and so many airplane are so high priced that there doesn’t seem to be an entry bid point that isn’t disrespectful. You say your 40k plane is worth 60? Bidding logic says I need to tell you 20 if I want to eventually compromise at the fair price.

Unfortunately, there are some that are even worse. I’ve seen a VFR 172N with a ragged out engine posted at 80k. That’s 35 max, so what am I supposed to do with that, offer 0?
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Reasonable POV's you have here. Then again, if an outrageously priced plane disappears from Trade A Plane, probably it has been sold. Would be great if there was a database of what prices planes actually sold for. In reality, there isn't "high" or "low". There is only market price. If ragged out Cessna's are actually selling for $80k, then that might be "high" compared to what I had in mind, but that is the market price it is in essence "fair". Frustrating none the less, and way off from what would make sense to us normal people who just want to buy a plane.

In the "good old days" you could buy a brand new Skyhawk for 2X the US household median income. Now it's 7X. It's dragging the used market with it. Many reasons why GA costs are increasing so much faster than the CPI.
 
WDD said:
Would be great if there was a database of what prices planes actually sold for.
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That's Vref. But it's $700/year for a subscription.
 
Eventually they are going up, because lots of dollars were handed out with no labor behind them. Inflation is pretty inevitable.
 
Todd82 said:
They seem to be hiring easy to the eyes young females as sales staff for their piston stuff. Either it's a halfassed attempt at the younger generation (like they'd buy a 172 factory new) or more likely the dirty old man with money demographics. Although maybe it's the former because one is rather famous in the aviation Instagram/social media circles, and just bought her own aircraft for her own hangar home...

And it was one of the LSA Cub knockoffs. Nothing like crapping where you eat :fingerwag:
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That needs pics.
 
WDD said:
Reasonable POV's you have here. Then again, if an outrageously priced plane disappears from Trade A Plane, probably it has been sold. Would be great if there was a database of what prices planes actually sold for. In reality, there isn't "high" or "low". There is only market price. If ragged out Cessna's are actually selling for $80k, then that might be "high" compared to what I had in mind, but that is the market price it is in essence "fair". Frustrating none the less, and way off from what would make sense to us normal people who just want to buy a plane.

In the "good old days" you could buy a brand new Skyhawk for 2X the US household median income. Now it's 7X. It's dragging the used market with it. Many reasons why GA costs are increasing so much faster than the CPI.
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If a plane has been sold instead of taken off the market, the ownership change should eventually show up on the FAA database. (Unfortunately, that doesn't tell you how much it sold for however.)
 
bflynn said:
That's Vref. But it's $700/year for a subscription.
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You can buy a monthly subscription.. comes in pretty handy too if you're getting real close to pulling the trigger..
 
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WDD said:
Reasonable POV's you have here. Then again, if an outrageously priced plane disappears from Trade A Plane, probably it has been sold. Would be great if there was a database of what prices planes actually sold for.
In the "good old days" you could buy a brand new Skyhawk for 2X the US household median income. Now it's 7X. It's dragging the used market with it. Many reasons why GA costs are increasing so much faster than the CPI.
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Airplanes always sell for $1 and other considerations.

And I would say in the good old days you could buy an airplane for the price of a house in the suburbs. And that still holds true.
 
RyanShort1 said:
Eventually they are going up, because lots of dollars were handed out with no labor behind them. Inflation is pretty inevitable.
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Everyone said that in 2008. Still waiting. Of course, the trillions that vanished in the market might offset that federal money. Meanwhile, this is where we are.
 
I think, going back to the original question, that probably some pretty good deals are going to be available. I don't have any plans to sell my plane... but if it came down to that or the mortgage, or that and other required bills, or groceries, I would. I suspect there are others who will sell sooner because they realize they need a bit of a nest egg that they don't currently have, or have enough of.

Add to that, the buying market is going to be depressed too, so those deals aren't going to get snapped up instantly, and that pushes them down further. "Yes honey, it looks like a great deal, but in the big picture do we really want to spend 30/40/50/60k for a luxury right now?" So those deals stay around long enough for you to find them, or even better long enough for the seller to drop further.
 
Todd82 said:
They seem to be hiring easy to the eyes young females as sales staff for their piston stuff. Either it's a halfassed attempt at the younger generation (like they'd buy a 172 factory new) or more likely the dirty old man with money demographics. Although maybe it's the former because one is rather famous in the aviation Instagram/social media circles, and just bought her own aircraft for her own hangar home...

And it was one of the LSA Cub knockoffs. Nothing like crapping where you eat :fingerwag:
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To be fair, I wouldn't call her Cub a "knockoff"...they're really nice. :D
 
Your title is a fallacy.
A better title would be "Will plane prices go down during COVID?". My answer to that is "definitely not for most planes".
 
MountainDude said:
Your title is a fallacy.
A better title would be "Will plane prices go down during COVID?". My answer to that is "definitely not for most planes".
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Why not, do you think? I see demand going down, anyway... you don't think so?
 
deyoung said:
I see demand going down
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Yes. And supply going up, especially when repossessions start.

When the demand curve shifts down from where it was, and the supply curve shifts up, their intersection (price) goes down, no matter how much one might wish otherwise.

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