Go or No Go?

Challenged

Challenged

Pattern Altitude
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Challenged
I have a trip planned with my wife and infant to Austin this weekend. We were originally scheduled to leave tomorrow morning, but I pushed it up due to the weather, so I was hoping to leave this afternoon. How do you guys feel about the weather today for a flight from Baton Rouge (KBTR) to Austin (KEDC)? Thanks for any constructive input.

Added some additional info:
I have ADS-B weather.
I don't have an Instrument Rating.
Aircraft is a Beech Sierra.
I don't mind scud running below a layer and getting bounced around a bit, but my wife is not a big fan of that.
 
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What was your plan to fly around 3,000 vfr? Do you have some type of weather on board to help get around storms? I am not instrument rated and would plan on getting a last minute briefing and be prepared to get stuck somewhere along the way. Is your wife ok getting bounced around?
 
Since I'm not the PIC on this trip, what would your decision be? Are you conservative about these things or a "go for it" kind of guy?
 
scattered at 4000-5000 . . .are you IFR rated? Otherwise go VFR underneath at 3000. Its will all be less than 3000AGL so its legal.

It does not matter who is with you - does it? Flight planning is the same since you have to get your arse to the destination safety. Rain showers and lower ceilings are not forecast until 11p local near Houston. The weather for SAT is typical for June - scattered aftn thunder, prob fading as the daylight heating does. Its clear right now - so just go.

I'm not seeing a dry line or anything in the charts that would indicate you are going to see a massive line of thunderstorms that can't be flown around for 300nm.
 
I have ADS-B weather.
I don't have an Instrument Rating.
Aircraft is a Beech Sierra.
I don't mind scud running below a layer and getting bounced around a bit, but my wife is not a big fan of that.
 
Its gonna be darn uncomfortable at 3000 with a 96F daytime temp and 76F dew point - you want to climb above the cumulus and stay above it - and have enough gas to go back and find a place to descend if you have to - or over fly SAT and turn back around and descend below the clouds - its a fuel issue.
 
I feel great about it, I'd go right now. KBTR and KAUS no significant weather. KBTR clear, KAUS high ceilings. Radar looks good. I would expect some clouds and perhaps some rain. Keep your eyes open you may have to go around some storms, but all of it should be easily manageable.
 
Weathermeister is showing a flight time of 2 hours and 31 minutes, with no deviations obviously. I will be able to have full fuel, which is about 5 hours of flight time until dry.
 
Challenged said:
Weathermeister is showing a flight time of 2 hours and 31 minutes, with no deviations obviously. I will be able to have full fuel, which is about 5 hours of flight time until dry.
Click to expand...

Plenty of airports along your route if you need gas, I wouldn't worry about it. Talk to ATC they can warn you if anything is up ahead that might delay you.

Sooooo?
 
Hmm, I greatly appreciate the input. I'll keep checking this post and the weather before I head to the airport. It looks like the sooner I leave today the better, but my wife is stuck in a meeting until later this afternoon.
 
Last half is going to be hot, bumpy and dodge-em for some cells.

I say Go, be ready to 180 and land if you need to north of Houston. Maybe Navasota or Brenham. It's not like there will be no 'outs' on the route today, and lots of landing places below you along the way.

Give your wife a few shots of Old Bailey's enroute. Seriously, stay high as you can. I was down there yesterday, and it's muggy below 4500.
 
I'm sure some of us could help with interpreting the weather products you've looked at, but none of us have any idea what your skill/proficiency/experience levels are. My gut feel is that if you have to ask us this question, it suggests you should find another way to get there.
 
Do you have a working autopilot?

Yes: Go regardless of the weather or your skill set.
No: Sit home. No one should ever fly without a working autopilot.

At least that's what you'll hear from the guys in the Cleared For the Approach section.
 
Ron Levy said:
I'm sure some of us could help with interpreting the weather products you've looked at, but none of us have any idea what your skill/proficiency/experience levels are. My gut feel is that if you have to ask us this question, it suggests you should find another way to get there.
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This.

No matter what you actually do today, you might spend some training dollars in a one on one session with Scott Dennstaedt of www.AvWxWorkshops.com

He can pull up the historical weather products for this trip during a screenshare session and go through the "look at this product for this information" details and help build out your weather knowledge and ability to make decisions that you're asking about.

I've done a session with Scott and it was invaluable in helping me know where to look and how to evaluate the information.
 
No offence, but what a bunch of whiny nail-biters.

Get up there, see what you see, go around what you can't go through and land if you don't like it. Or - turn in your ticket.

He'd be near Houston now if he had launched and would know what he needs.

Gah!!!
 
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EdFred said:
Do you have a working autopilot?

Yes: Go regardless of the weather or your skill set.
No: Sit home. No one should ever fly without a working autopilot.

At least that's what you'll hear from the guys in the Cleared For the Approach section.
Click to expand...

Give it a rest, Ed.
 
EdFred said:
Do you have a working autopilot?

Yes: Go regardless of the weather or your skill set.
No: Sit home. No one should ever fly without a working autopilot.

At least that's what you'll hear from the guys in the Cleared For the Approach section.
Click to expand...

You know full well nobody said that.
 
We're driving. My wife doesn't like bumps or deviations, it's very inconvenient if I had to stop somewhere random along the way with an infant, and forecast was calling for Thunderstorms and variable 25 to 35 knot winds at our destination.

I've gotten a lot better at weather analysis as I have gained hours, but even my old CFI will call me on occasion for input on weather. I think it's a valuable exercise, even if it helps you talk through your own thoughts.

As I type this, there's lots of thunder going on in the background which helps reinforce my decision as well.

Sent from my Galaxy Nexus using Tapatalk
 
Sounds like a wise choice. Always better to be down here.... yadda :)

Now, have a safe drive!
 
IF you have the rule I have of not flying through front lines, then the answer would have been NO. from the 2pm map, there were two front lines converging over central texas ie Austin. The drive may even be interesting. Lots of moisture, lots of instability, lots of heat, lots of convection.
 
Looking at Austin right now it's beautiful. Spring time means a little storm avoidance, just part of Texas flying. I know you made a decision and I would never second guess that. However, eventually you have to dip your foot in the pool of experience. Stay VFR and give the storms lots of room, land if you can't, pretty simple. Next time maybe.
 
only you can make the final decision. you know your comfort level. before i was fir rated,i would do a trip like that. would pre plan so you know where your outs are if you need them. don't be afraid to land and let the weather go by you.
 
Looks like things have cleared up a bit now ( sitting here on the drive looking up at the sky), but it was probably the right decision for me based on information I had at the time. My no-go decisions are definitely more conservative when my wife is along for the ride too, more for comfort than for safety though.
 
Haven't made it to Austin yet, but my relatives there just texted me that there's supposedly 60 mph winds and trees down.

Just said they are having hail as well, so now I'm really glad I didn't fly. I don't need a golfball themed airplane.

Sent from my Galaxy Nexus using Tapatalk
 
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While talking to the chief pilot of a corp aviation flight department he tells his pilots this "If you bounce them around they will take commercial and you will be out of a job" He later proved this by flying out of New Iberia while a hurricane was coming on shore. He told us to stand by and be ready to go. After about an hour in the FBO he hurried out and said there was a gap in the bands. We flew almost to Arkansas to make it to Houston, but there was exactly one small bump over Austin the entire flight. One of the things I remember reading during training is" Your passengers are already scared, don't add to it by doing fly bys and such."
 
Whomever posted the tag about the 709 ride is really immature and should be suspended for 30days from the site.

Geez people....get a life.
 
Fun side note is that we're staying at Leo Loudenslager's daughter's house while we're here in Austin.
http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leo_Loudenslager
8ysy5ape.jpg
 
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