Flying thru fronts

WannFly

WannFly

Final Approach
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Priyo
so far i have flown through 3 of em and i try to avoid them when i can.

Experience 1: couldnt outrun the cold front with my mighty 180 HP engine. got caught up in clouds, flew through a hole and diverted to an alternate. TAF was showing ceiling coming down later in the day, apparently the front didnt get that memo and moved in early

Experience 2 : it was a IFR flight and it was awesome to punch thru it.

Experience 3: no clouds, but huge potential for LLWS. winds at 1500 AGL was from west at 35 kts or close to that, surface winds were 20 kts from South. didnt hit any shear.

now, another cold front is supposed to cross ND this Saturday and i am planning to fly east tomorrow and come back on Saturday, though its hard to predict how fast or slow it will move, current images show the front crossing from Montana and reaching half of MN in about 12 hours. TAF's for tomorrow is great even though MOS shows low viz due to haze and mist much around MSP Bravo with MVFR WX earlier in the day. MOS shows clear skies on Saturday throughout the day with south winds across the whole region between 7 - 15 kts, wind aloft is around 40 kts from NW at 6500, so expecting the potential for LLWS.

EDIT: Correction wind aloft now shows from 210 at 50 or so kts, and surface winds about 13G26 from 180

temp is suppose to hover around 25-40 degrees.

folks with deep WX knowledge... what can i expect with the information above? i have to be around MSP Bravo on saturday AM, hence planning to fly out tomorrow. it would suck to get stuck there for another day, but i am open for it and come back on Sunday, though the weather on sunday is anyone's guess.

what does POA think?
 
I have a friend that flew through a front in his Bonanza. It almost tore the wings off the airplane. it was so rough he almost got knocked out. The airplane landed and the wings were bent way up on the airplane!
Don't fly through fronts!
Didn't anyone teach this in training? You might as well just fly through thunderstorms too...
 
pigpenracing said:
I have a friend that flew through a front in his Bonanza. It almost tore the wings off the airplane. it was so rough he almost got knocked out. The airplane landed and the wings were bent way up on the airplane!
Don't fly through fronts!
Didn't anyone teach this in training? You might as well just fly through thunderstorms too...
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LOL
 
I know this is a little late, but the 48 hour Prog chart shows the cold front over the Red River Valley Sunday without precipitation associated with it west of the high elevations in western Montana. The freezing level will be at the surface. The NWS forecast is sunny.

Also keep in mind when getting weather advice there are few people on this board with experiance with northern plains weather. W
 
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Clip4 said:
I know this is a little late, but the 48 hour Prog chart shows the cold front over the Red River Valley Sunday without precipitation associated with it. The freezing level will be at the surface and I would expect at least moderate clear /mixed ice in the clouds and occasional snow showers.

Also keep in mind when getting weather advice there are few people on this board with experiance with northern plains weather.
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thanks, yes I am seeing that too. I will take a call at 1300 today if I am flying or not, Saturday when I am planning to fly back, that's when the cold front will pass through the area. this will be a VFR flight

upload_2018-12-14_10-2-29.png
 
Every time I read this title, I see "flying thru fonts" ... maybe it needs a different font? :D
 
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pigpenracing said:
I have a friend that flew through a front in his Bonanza. It almost tore the wings off the airplane. it was so rough he almost got knocked out. The airplane landed and the wings were bent way up on the airplane!
Don't fly through fronts!
Didn't anyone teach this in training? You might as well just fly through thunderstorms too...
Click to expand...

Serious?
 
What really sucked is when the closed the sutomatedcflight service stations. I always got great weather briefings from people who knew northern planes WX, were pilots and flew there.
 
CC268 said:
Serious?
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I flew through a very benign appearing cold front in ND and the briefer warned me in advance the last plane through reported severe turbulence that nearly inverted the aircraft. There was not a bump when I went through and the precip was light.
 
pigpenracing said:
Yes serious....
Insurance totaled the airplane because the wings were bent and almost tore out the wing attach points. He came real close to dying!
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An unlikely event below turbulent air penetration speed while accepting changes in altitude and maintaining attitude. I guess if you fly into a cell maybe.
 
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Holy crap, I fly through fronts all the time in my IFR training and sometimes VFR. Not all fronts are created the same. Also keep in mind the TAF only covers a limited area around the terminal area, there can be a lot of space between the terminals sometimes.
 
Well I decided to call it, with my luck I am 100% sure that it will be clear and a million while I drive 10 hrs tomorrow... but I just don’t want to race the cold front that’s supposed to arrive to fargo tomorrow by 1800 hrs.

Sigh... well am off to flying now, it’s a beautiful day to fly after a long time here.

I have been bitten in my arse relying on TAF and learned the hard way how that prediction is so very localized.
 
If I didn't fly through fronts I'd probably have about a 50% mission cancellation rate.

I've had days where I've crossed 3 fronts, and then the same front again heading home.

Keep in mind up until recently my flying was essentially all in piston twins, and now turboprop twins. I wouldn't necessarily suggest the same your average piston single trainer. However if nobody flew when they would have to cross or land in a front you'd see a lot of airline cancellations.
 
Fronts are wildly different animals. Spring cold front in the plains or South with a high temperature, wind and pressure differential is an entirely different beast from a warm front with little differential. Just saying "I'll never cross a front" will keep you on the ground needlessly. Learn charts and how to read what's a gut wrenching one from one you'll likely not even notice passing through.
 
WannFly said:
Well I decided to call it, with my luck I am 100% sure that it will be clear and a million while I drive 10 hrs tomorrow... but I just don’t want to race the cold front that’s supposed to arrive to fargo tomorrow by 1800 hrs.

Sigh... well am off to flying now, it’s a beautiful day to fly after a long time here.

I have been bitten in my arse relying on TAF and learned the hard way how that prediction is so very localized.
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Do you have an instructor you can call to talk about these things with? Good for you for cancelling a flight that you did not feel comfortable taking. But I think calling an instructor and talking this through may have given you a different conclusion, or maybe not. I think it would be worth scheduling an hour or two going over weather planning with an instructor, then ask if he would be willing to take calls from you when planning a flight you are unsure about. I've done this in the past, most instructors are willing to help with this.
 
Like with anything else, just be smart about it and trust your gut
 
PaulS said:
Do you have an instructor you can call to talk about these things with? Good for you for cancelling a flight that you did not feel comfortable taking. But I think calling an instructor and talking this through may have given you a different conclusion, or maybe not. I think it would be worth scheduling an hour or two going over weather planning with an instructor, then ask if he would be willing to take calls from you when planning a flight you are unsure about. I've done this in the past, most instructors are willing to help with this.
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Good idea, also this is basically why we have FSS. Call a briefer, think they are very happy to talk this type of thing through with you. Not sure how many calls they get these days with so much good WX info on the web.
 
During my training there was a Cessna twin pilot at the airport leaving to take off. Believe he was a contract pilot. I still remember seeing him in his boots and jeans in the FBO. He flew through a front line that he could have flown around the tail end that was between Houston and Dallas. The plane ended up spiraling down and crashing somewhere in east Texas. It created one of rules for flying 2. Never fly through front lines. Land it, wait for it to pass, take back off.
 
yetti said:
During my training there was a Cessna twin pilot at the airport leaving to take off. Believe he was a contract pilot. I still remember seeing him in his boots and jeans in the FBO. He flew through a front line that he could have flown around the tail end that was between Houston and Dallas. The plane ended up spiraling down and crashing somewhere in east Texas. It created one of rules for flying 2. Never fly through front lines. Land it, wait for it to pass, take back off.
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Front or Squall line? I think some people are confusing the two. Fronts can be a non event but Squall lines usually get your attention.
 
PaulS said:
Do you have an instructor you can call to talk about these things with? Good for you for cancelling a flight that you did not feel comfortable taking. But I think calling an instructor and talking this through may have given you a different conclusion, or maybe not. I think it would be worth scheduling an hour or two going over weather planning with an instructor, then ask if he would be willing to take calls from you when planning a flight you are unsure about. I've done this in the past, most instructors are willing to help with this.
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I do and i spoke to him today AM, he was about to take off for the day and didn’t have time to go over the numbers with me until 1400, I cancelled before that. For once I feel good about my WX decision making, new TAF at fargo issued recently now shows 40kt wind shear at 2000 AGL forecast all day long, Alexandria was my alternate if things get out of hand while coming back and there it’s showing a 50kt wind shear possibility at 2000 AGL till 1700... . I would rather drive for 10 hrs.

On a different note I was so ****ed about cancelling the flight that I went up, flew for 2 hrs low and slow at 80 kts for no reason at 1500 AGL and visited a podunk airport ... man low and slow is awesome
 
Hang 4 said:
Good idea, also this is basically why we have FSS. Call a briefer, think they are very happy to talk this type of thing through with you. Not sure how many calls they get these days with so much good WX info on the web.
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I did that too, they were unsure till about 1400 local and asked me to call back then for a better picture. I agree, they are a great resource
 
Plano Pilot said:
Front or Squall line? I think some people are confusing the two. Fronts can be a non event but Squall lines usually get your attention.
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And how, pray tell, does one differentiate the two on the usual weather resources? :rolleyes:
 
WannFly said:
I do and i spoke to him today AM, he was about to take off for the day and didn’t have time to go over the numbers with me until 1400, I cancelled before that. For once I feel good about my WX decision making, new TAF at fargo issued recently now shows 40kt wind shear at 2000 AGL forecast all day long, Alexandria was my alternate if things get out of hand while coming back and there it’s showing a 50kt wind shear possibility at 2000 AGL till 1700... . I would rather drive for 10 hrs.

On a different note I was so ****ed about cancelling the flight that I went up, flew for 2 hrs low and slow at 80 kts for no reason at 1500 AGL and visited a podunk airport ... man low and slow is awesome
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Here's a post on wind shear from 5 years ago.

https://www.pilotsofamerica.com/community/threads/question-about-windshear-at-2000-feet.64893/

Honestly I haven't seen a forecast like that around here yet. Generally they call out the pattern altitude or below stuff which can make final approach exciting. Over the past few weeks we've had up to +- 10 knots a couple times below 500 feet and one day, I think it was last week or the week before where it was more, like 20 to 30 knots swing total all the way to the ground, that was via a couple pireps as we were approaching the airport. That day was real bumpy with a stiff crosswind. I was with an instructor on these days and it was really no big deal other than looking like a drunk sailor getting bounced around on final. With the higher shear we carried about 15 knots extra on final and bled it off over the runway (7,000 feet), the airspeed indicator was bouncing around but I never heard the stall warning. The airplane was an SR 20. It was a great experience but those winds on landing are above my personal limits.
 
I think that "fronts" is too broad a term - what we really mean I think is a significant cold front coming in with intense squall line and probably equally important significant wind shear ahead of the squall line and then behind the front after it immediately passes (squall line passes). Convective weather is in my opinion easier to deal with - you can usually pick your way around it.

Still, most fronts are not serious, but just low pressure systems moving in with a change in weather / wind. But I agree with the posters above - some cold fronts this time of year can be very dangerous for us sub 12,000' pilots to fly through. I don't do it.
 
This maybe won't be a lot of help but I'll try...

As said its not as simple as just a "front" that you need to think about. I'm currently attending USAF WX Forecasting school. I'm not very far through the course as of yet but having previously taught myself weather through FAA AC 00-06B, I of course had lots of questions. I imagine after the scope of the course I'm attending (9 months total) that I will continue to have questions remaining as there are Doctorate level Weather Instructors at the school house that still have questions.

I was going to link to some WX charts on AWC that I though may help but from my new viewpoint I'm sadly disappointed in the information provided on Aviation Weather Center...

The best tool available to you as a pilot on the AWC site is the textual Forecast Discussion, IMHO.

As far as the charts go I like to look at each pressure level though AWC seems to have combined them. I've yet had the learning that would tell me why that is so... I would guess it is an attempt to simplify just as I struggle to simplify and summarize what I've learned so far. While there are rules of thumb the weather doesn't play by rules... that said - wind speeds at the surface are usually 50% of the 850mb level. When analyzing the prog charts there are certain patterns you want to look for - baroclinic leafs, Type A and B Comma clouds, which stage of life a Wave Cyclone is in, etc, etc, etc. These will tell you - again general rules of thumb and weather doesn't play by the rules - where to expect precipitation and clouds and what types of precipitation and clouds. Squall lines will be 50-150 miles in front of an inactive cold front, thunderstorms(TS) cumulonimbus(CB) will be at leading edge of inactive cold front, TSCB at or behind active cold front, stratus(ST) behind a stationary front, ST up to 300 miles ahead of a warm front when talking about the Comma Cloud/Wave Cyclone system which is the common pattern seen over the contiguous USA.

On a surface chart you will want to look at the contour lines and analyze whether they are converging or diverging. These will be you areas of highest vertical wind shear - again a rule of thumb and WX doesn't play by rules...

That should give you some food for thought.
 
kgruber said:
My rules of light aircraft weather flying.....

1. Don't fly the day of the front.
2. Don't fly if the wind@9000 is greater than 20
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Would you mind elaborating on #2? Is it specific to the terrain where you fly or a general rule regardless? I ask because the winds at 9000ft seem to be over 20 knots a significant amount of the time in the Midwest and I’ve never heard anybody mention anything like that before. Thanks.
 
WannFly said:
I do and i spoke to him today AM, he was about to take off for the day and didn’t have time to go over the numbers with me until 1400, I cancelled before that. For once I feel good about my WX decision making, new TAF at fargo issued recently now shows 40kt wind shear at 2000 AGL forecast all day long, Alexandria was my alternate if things get out of hand while coming back and there it’s showing a 50kt wind shear possibility at 2000 AGL till 1700... . I would rather drive for 10 hrs.

On a different note I was so ****ed about cancelling the flight that I went up, flew for 2 hrs low and slow at 80 kts for no reason at 1500 AGL and visited a podunk airport ... man low and slow is awesome
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Hate to say it, but I was pleasantly surprised at how smooth it was up there today. The winds were howling and I basically kept the nose pointed at the runway on one downwind leg, but it was a great flying day in NoDak as long as you weren’t flying into the wind. No harm in being safe though...it was a definite game time decision to fly today.
 
DogoPilot said:
Would you mind elaborating on #2? Is it specific to the terrain where you fly or a general rule regardless? I ask because the winds at 9000ft seem to be over 20 knots a significant amount of the time in the Midwest and I’ve never heard anybody mention anything like that before. Thanks.
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I think he's superstitious. ....o_O

I just stay outta the red and yellow stuff.....to save my paint. ;)
 
DogoPilot said:
Would you mind elaborating on #2? Is it specific to the terrain where you fly or a general rule regardless? I ask because the winds at 9000ft seem to be over 20 knots a significant amount of the time in the Midwest and I’ve never heard anybody mention anything like that before. Thanks.
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Without knowing him or where he is I'd say its a local thing that involves terrain causing turbulence.

Just like the "just a front" discussion "its not just wind" but wind shear that you need to be aware of followed by aircraft limitations. For example, if it were 50 knots of wind from the SFC to FL450 it would be a very smoooooth day of flying as long as your aircraft could handle any crosswind components and you would accept the groundspeed. Again you want to look at several pressure levels and look for the gradient lines for areas of confluence/diffluence. There is no one size fits all answer you must consider all the factors. If you call a WX briefer or read the forecast discussion that work is already done for you.

Another tool you could put in the box is historical data. The Air Force won't build a climatological model for an area until they have at least 30 years of data for it. Comparing what you see now to what has been in the past is probably one of your best forecasting tools available.
 
scottd said:
There are different kinds of wind shear. The one you are referring to is called non-convective LLWS. Most instructors and examiners don't understand it, so it's deemed a bad thing...when in fact, it's not. It's not the same convective wind shear that you'd get from thunderstorms. It's a form of vertical speed shear. In most cases, the air is glassy smooth. Check out my recent video, entitled, What the FAA does not want YOU to know about weather. The 36 minute video discusses (starting at 16:53) this kind of wind shear and how it's produced with some other good weather training that most pilots are never taught.

Here's the TAF you were referring to...

KFAR 142321Z 1500/1524 20006KT P6SM SKC
FM151600 16014KT P6SM FEW250 WS020/20040KT
FM152300 20012KT P6SM BKN200 WS011/21020KT

In fact, the second wind shear group of WS011/21020KT is below the threshold of the NWS directives and shouldn't really be forecast. The directive says, "LLWS should be included in the TAF if a value of 30kts or greater is determined." Perhaps a typo? Probably should have been 40? Here's the sounding analysis from that late morning. After going through my video, you'll see this was actually a great day to fly.

View attachment 69993
And no turbulence reports either.
View attachment 69994
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Thanks Scott. Well, wish I knew more about this, but in reality, I can’t interpret this. I need to dig into your videos and learn more. I do all my flight planning based on your app these days and they are spot on. Thanks for creating an useful weather app...
 
scottd said:
There are different kinds of wind shear. The one you are referring to is called non-convective LLWS. Most instructors and examiners don't understand it, so it's deemed a bad thing...when in fact, it's not. It's not the same convective wind shear that you'd get from thunderstorms. It's a form of vertical speed shear. In most cases, the air is glassy smooth. Check out my recent video, entitled, What the FAA does not want YOU to know about weather. The 36 minute video discusses (starting at 16:53) this kind of wind shear and how it's produced with some other good weather training that most pilots are never taught.

Here's the TAF you were referring to...

KFAR 142321Z 1500/1524 20006KT P6SM SKC
FM151600 16014KT P6SM FEW250 WS020/20040KT
FM152300 20012KT P6SM BKN200 WS011/21020KT

In fact, the second wind shear group of WS011/21020KT is below the threshold of the NWS directives and shouldn't really be forecast. The directive says, "LLWS should be included in the TAF if a value of 30kts or greater is determined." Perhaps a typo? Probably should have been 40? Here's the sounding analysis from that late morning. After going through my video, you'll see this was actually a great day to fly.

View attachment 69993
And no turbulence reports either.
View attachment 69994
Click to expand...

I was hoping you would chime in, wind shear at altitude doesn't generally bother me unless it is part of mod to sev turbulence. That said, as soon as my IR work settles down, hopefully with a passed check ride, I plan to delve into all of your videos and take the skew t workshop, already use weather spork. Good stuff.
 
WannFly said:
Well I decided to call it, with my luck I am 100% sure that it will be clear and a million while I drive 10 hrs tomorrow... but I just don’t want to race the cold front that’s supposed to arrive to fargo tomorrow by 1800 hrs.

Sigh... well am off to flying now, it’s a beautiful day to fly after a long time here.

I have been bitten in my arse relying on TAF and learned the hard way how that prediction is so very localized.
Click to expand...
Better to be down here wishing you were up there than to be up there wishing you were down here.
 
Clip4 said:
I flew through a very benign appearing cold front in ND and the briefer warned me in advance the last plane through reported severe turbulence that nearly inverted the aircraft.
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And you still flew through it? Wow.
Clip4 said:
There was not a bump when I went through and the precip was light.
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What were you flying?
 
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