-Finally- an honest assessment of electric airplanes

The Tecnam Company -finally- has an honest assessment of electric airplanes– the battery technology is not even close to being ready.

source:
https://www.aopa.org/news-and-media...win-on-ice?utm_source=ebrief&utm_medium=email
Yep. And I opine some of the future battery technology would be fine for a C-172 type plane, but not something much larger or faster, where drag and energy requirements increase quickly. Tecnam has done some real work, I take their experience seriously.
 
Yep. And I opine some of the future battery technology would be fine for a C-172 type plane, but not something much larger or faster, where drag and energy requirements increase quickly. Tecnam has done some real work, I take their experience seriously.
Lol. Never give up. Never surrender.
 
I'm absolutely shocked, I tell ya! A stunning turn of events! Who could have known this was coming ... :dunno:

Maybe it is rocket surgery!
 
Yep. And I opine some of the future battery technology would be fine for a C-172 type plane, but not something much larger or faster, where drag and energy requirements increase quickly. Tecnam has done some real work, I take their experience seriously.

Lol. Never give up. Never surrender.

We don't know what remains to be discovered. I don't pretend to be a subject matter expert on battery chemistry or physics, but... I'm sure if you'd told a battery chemist or engineer in 1960 or 1970 where lithium battery technology would be today, they'd have asked if you were dropped on your head as a child. I don't expect to see any major breakthrough in the next few years, or maybe even during my lifetime, but I'm sure we'll get there some day.
 
We don't know what remains to be discovered. I don't pretend to be a subject matter expert on battery chemistry or physics, but... I'm sure if you'd told a battery chemist or engineer in 1960 or 1970 where lithium battery technology would be today, they'd have asked if you were dropped on your head as a child. I don't expect to see any major breakthrough in the next few years, or maybe even during my lifetime, but I'm sure we'll get there some day.
Why assume there are no limits? ICE engines have also improved dramatically, but there are limits to their efficiency and output per pound of engine and fuel. Same is true of batteries. There is most certainly a physical limit, and to assume we are nowhere near it yet is ignoring the facts IMO. You can’t ignore physics just by wanting things to be true. Sure, a lot of things from Star Trek have developed, but far more of them have not.
 
Why assume there are no limits? ICE engines have also improved dramatically, but there are limits to their efficiency and output per pound of engine and fuel. Same is true of batteries. There is most certainly a physical limit, and to assume we are nowhere near it yet is ignoring the facts IMO. You can’t ignore physics just by wanting things to be true. Sure, a lot of things from Star Trek have developed, but far more of them have not.
I'm not an engineer, but doesn't the cell type dramatically affect energy density? Look at the durability and output of Li-ion batteries vs Ni-Cd batteries, for example.
It's not like the fundamental properties of fossil fuel is going to change over time. But batteries will continue to evolve.
Comparing the efficiency of the engines vs the energy source is not a valid comparison, IMO.
 
Why assume there are no limits?

Nuclear fusion battery, anyone??

1608559472-homer-nuclear-1608559439.gif
 
As someone wiring up his hangar with a 20kva LFP battery bank ($6k worth :eek:), yeah, it would power a 375hp twin for, ohhhh, 4 minutes. It might get 1000 cycles on its design life, and that's using 800W/hp which is somewhere near ideal efficiency.

And we moan about overhaul costs now. I can't imagine a flight school twin getting wha, 100-200k worth of batteries replaced annually. Hard pass. :D

...would be sweet to run at 9c/kwh while it lasted though. 30 bucks an hour, assuming perfect charging efficiency -- pretty nice. I hope battery tech continues improving, but probably not useful for aviation in my lifetime. The economics are probably getting close for an LSA-class cruiser
 
We don't know what remains to be discovered. I don't pretend to be a subject matter expert on battery chemistry or physics, but... I'm sure if you'd told a battery chemist or engineer in 1960 or 1970 where lithium battery technology would be today, they'd have asked if you were dropped on your head as a child. I don't expect to see any major breakthrough in the next few years, or maybe even during my lifetime, but I'm sure we'll get there some day.


The basic research that led to today's lithium batteries was done in the 1960s and 1970s. Where is today's basic research for the next breakthrough? And why would we expect it to come to fruition in less than 40 or 50 years?

I'll note that the companies pushing electric aircraft are sinking their investor's money into pretty airframes, not into the key enabling technology. Batteries with 50x increased capacity would be worth a king's ransom, but nobody is pouring money there. It's easier to dupe suckers with futuristic looking aircraft and promises about miracle batteries yet to come.
 
I'm not an engineer, but doesn't the cell type dramatically affect energy density? Look at the durability and output of Li-ion batteries vs Ni-Cd batteries, for example.
It's not like the fundamental properties of fossil fuel is going to change over time. But batteries will continue to evolve.
Comparing the efficiency of the engines vs the energy source is not a valid comparison, IMO.
Evolve, yes, but to reach the type of weight vs storage vs output needed for useful aircraft? Nope...


--Blade Runner was filmed in 1982, and was supposed to depict 2019 Los Angeles.

--Jetsons was written in 1962, depicting 2062.

--Lost in Space, created in 1965, was supposed to be 1997.

Lots of dreamers out there, but reality isn't gonna play along.
 
We don't know what remains to be discovered. I don't pretend to be a subject matter expert on battery chemistry or physics, but... I'm sure if you'd told a battery chemist or engineer in 1960 or 1970 where lithium battery technology would be today, they'd have asked if you were dropped on your head as a child. I don't expect to see any major breakthrough in the next few years, or maybe even during my lifetime, but I'm sure we'll get there some day.
There are some interesting developments with high energy densities and fast charging in the lab. They would work fine for a C-182 or smaller. But they need to leave the lab and get into production.
Why assume there are no limits? ICE engines have also improved dramatically, but there are limits to their efficiency and output per pound of engine and fuel. Same is true of batteries. There is most certainly a physical limit, and to assume we are nowhere near it yet is ignoring the facts IMO. You can’t ignore physics just by wanting things to be true. Sure, a lot of things from Star Trek have developed, but far more of them have not.
Which batteries? There's different chemistry that hasn't been tested, or just beginning to be tested such as multivalent ions. There are limits, but we are a long way from reaching them.
 
It's not like the fundamental properties of fossil fuel is going to change over time. But batteries will continue to evolve.

The fundamental properties of all available electrochemical reactions are well understood and aren't going to change over time, either. Yes, batteries will continue to evolve, but the necessary order of magnitude improvement isn't even on the distant horizon.
 
There are some interesting developments with high energy densities and fast charging in the lab. They would work fine for a C-182 or smaller. But they need to leave the lab and get into production.

Which batteries? There's different chemistry that hasn't been tested, or just beginning to be tested such as multivalent ions. There are limits, but we are a long way from reaching them.
Any second now. As always.
 
The basic research that led to today's lithium batteries was done in the 1960s and 1970s. Where is today's basic research for the next breakthrough? And why would we expect it to come to fruition in less than 40 or 50 years?

I'll note that the companies pushing electric aircraft are sinking their investor's money into pretty airframes, not into the key enabling technology. Batteries with 50x increased capacity would be worth a king's ransom, but nobody is pouring money there. It's easier to dupe suckers with futuristic looking aircraft and promises about miracle batteries yet to come.
Today's basic research is being done in China. They already have practical sodium based batteries in cars because of the environmental impact of lithium. They don't have the "can't be done, too expensive" mindset that you and @Salty have.
Isn't that solid state batteries?
That's one technology.
 
Any second now. As always.
And that thinking is why the Chinese are so far ahead of us in batteries.

I said we are a long way from those technologies leaving the lab.
 
The fundamental properties of all available electrochemical reactions are well understood and aren't going to change over time, either. Yes, batteries will continue to evolve, but the necessary order of magnitude improvement isn't even on the distant horizon.
Oh wow. May as well stop all research in battery technology. What other science has reached its limits?
 
Evolve, yes, but to reach the type of weight vs storage vs output needed for useful aircraft? Nope...


--Blade Runner was filmed in 1982, and was supposed to depict 2019 Los Angeles.

--Jetsons was written in 1962, depicting 2062.

--Lost in Space, created in 1965, was supposed to be 1997.

Lots of dreamers out there, but reality isn't gonna play along.
That's really why these industrial companies need to stop staffing their R&D labs with Hollywood scriptwriters.
 
And that thinking is why the Chinese are so far ahead of us in batteries.

I said we are a long way from those technologies leaving the lab.
The Chinese are ahead in batteries (whatever that means) because some guy on the internet points out that some other guy in the internet has been saying any minute now for year after year?
 
The fundamental properties of all available electrochemical reactions are well understood and aren't going to change over time, either. Yes, batteries will continue to evolve, but the necessary order of magnitude improvement isn't even on the distant horizon.
Bold statement. What about batteries with 10x the energy density? Do you think that's enough?
With the massive advances that the commercial world has seen in affordable battery types in the last 20 years, it's strange to see that we now think that 2023 is the year in which we've hit a wall.

There is a ton of money in introducing better batteries to market, which is exactly why a bunch of large companies are working on exactly that. And is why I'm sceptical of anyone stating that the status quo is what we're stuck with for the foreseeable future. Historically those naysayers don't have a great track record.
 
The Chinese are ahead in batteries (whatever that means) because some guy on the internet points out that some other guy in the internet has been saying any minute now for year after year?
I'm sorry. I don't understand your question.
The Chinese have batteries with longer range and faster recharge times than those available here, and some with charge-carrier ions other than lithium.
 
I'm sorry. I don't understand your question.
The Chinese have batteries with longer range and faster recharge times than those available here, and some with charge-carrier ions other than lithium.
And any second now that’ll mean something real. For the last couple decades. Im still waiting.
 
And any second now that’ll mean something real. For the last couple decades. Im still waiting.
What do you mean? Batteries are vastly better than they were a couple of decades ago.
 
What do you mean? Batteries are vastly better than they were a couple of decades ago.
We will have to disagree. If a score of 100 is what is needed for using batteries for any sort of productive flight, we’ve progressed from about 3 to 5.
 
We will have to disagree. If a score of 100 is what is needed for using batteries for any sort of productive flight, we’ve progressed from about 3 to 5.
Seems pretty scientific.
 
And any second now that’ll mean something real. For the last couple decades. Im still waiting.
Tesla doesn't make real cars? The first delivery was 2008. Newer cars have more range than that original. I don't know what you are expecting, but some of the current cars have the same range as an ICE vehicle.
 
Seems pretty scientific.
Just as scientific as saying the next generation will work for planes, and saying it for 20 years with a straight face.
 
Just as scientific as saying the next generation will work for planes, and saying it for 20 years with a straight face.
You say we've gone from a 3 to a 5 on a scale to 100 in the last 20 years.
20 years ago, was anyone even seriously considering manufacturing an all-electric plane? They actually fly now. They exist.
There were zero commercially-available electric cars 20 years ago. And today a new electric car company sells more cars in the US per month than a bunch of other manufacturers that have existed for a century. And now because of that virtually every other company is now introducing an electric car. I'd say that represents a pretty massive shift in two decades.
 
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Just as scientific as saying the next generation will work for planes, and saying it for 20 years with a straight face.
Again, this doesn't make sense. Who has been saying this?

We will have to disagree. If a score of 100 is what is needed for using batteries for any sort of productive flight, we’ve progressed from about 3 to 5.
Define productive flight.
For something like a C-152/172/182, we are somewhere between 20 to 60 of 100 of the way there depending on what batteries you choose from existing ones (such as Tecnam used) to some of the newer technologies which may or may not happen. At this time, I consider those air-taxies and commercial planes to be pie-in-the sky. But I'm willing to be proven wrong.
Someone considers his EAB a successful electric plane:
https://www.kitplanes.com/electric-airplane-fundamentals/
 
You say we've gone from a 3 to a 5 on a scale to 100 in the last 20 years.
20 years ago, was anyone even seriously considering manufacturing an all-electric plane? They actually fly now. They exist.
There were zero commercially-available electric cars 20 years ago. And today a new electric car company sells more cars in the US per month than a bunch of other manufacturers that have existed for a century. And now because of that virtually every other company is now introducing an electric car. I'd say that represents a pretty massive shift in two decades.
Government mandates explain that far more than technology improvements. And no, there are not any practical electric aircraft. Tecnam says it, after dumping god knows how much into it, but still people swear it’s right around the corner.
 
Again, this doesn't make sense. Who has been saying this?


Define productive flight.
For something like a C-152/172/182, we are somewhere between 20 to 60 of 100 of the way there depending on what batteries you choose from existing ones (such as Tecnam used) to some of the newer technologies which may or may not happen. At this time, I consider those air-taxies and commercial planes to be pie-in-the sky. But I'm willing to be proven wrong.
Someone considers his EAB a successful electric plane:
https://www.kitplanes.com/electric-airplane-fundamentals/
There are exactly zero practical aircraft powered by electric. I’m not opposed to experimenting. That’s fun. It’s not practical. There has not yet been an electric aircraft capable of making more than its operational costs.

I own an EV. It’s barely practical, and only, if I stay inside the confines of its limited capabilities. It’s very cool if you can accept those considerable limitations. I choose to acknowledge that those limitations exist instead of pretending they don’t. An aircraft is not even remotely to that close yet. Electric aircraft make no sense for so many reasons.
 
Government mandates explain that far more than technology improvements. And no, there are not any practical electric aircraft. Tecnam says it, after dumping god knows how much into it, but still people swear it’s right around the corner.
Who says that it's right around the corner? I'm responding to people saying that it's not even on the distant horizon, or not possible, and comparing it to Star Trek.

And don't pretend that the capability of the few electric cars that were briefly available in the late 90s are even in the same league as a Tesla that you can buy today for $45k.

What I've been saying is that batteries have improved dramatically in a generation, and why should they stop improving today?
 
What I've been saying is that batteries have improved dramatically in a generation, and why should they stop improving today?
Because, just as fuel contains a finite amount of energy, so does a battery. And the fact that with fuel you are consuming vastly more potential by breaking down the fuel completely rather than just moving electrons back and forth means it’s pretty safe to assume it will never come close.
 
Again, this doesn't make sense. Who has been saying this?


Define productive flight.
For something like a C-152/172/182, we are somewhere between 20 to 60 of 100 of the way there depending on what batteries you choose from existing ones (such as Tecnam used) to some of the newer technologies which may or may not happen. At this time, I consider those air-taxies and commercial planes to be pie-in-the sky. But I'm willing to be proven wrong.
Someone considers his EAB a successful electric plane:
https://www.kitplanes.com/electric-airplane-fundamentals/
Lol

in one post you claim you aren’t saying the next generation of batteries will work, and also claiming that the current generation are already working. Impressive.
 
There are exactly zero practical aircraft powered by electric. I’m not opposed to experimenting. That’s fun. It’s not practical. There has not yet been an electric aircraft capable of making more than its operational costs.

I own an EV. It’s barely practical, and only, if I stay inside the confines of its limited capabilities. It’s very cool if you can accept those considerable limitations. I choose to acknowledge that those limitations exist instead of pretending they don’t. An aircraft is not even remotely to that close yet. Electric aircraft make no sense for so many reasons.
Again, what is a practical aircraft? If you can't define it, you can't say whether you reached a goal. An ultralight airplane is fun, but it isn't practical for most of us.

Your EV is barely practical for you because you have needs outside of most of the population. I'm probably more typical compared to the population of drivers in that my car hasn't left the city limit in years, and I don't do work that involves using my car all day such as delivery.
Government mandates explain that far more than technology improvements. And no, there are not any practical electric aircraft. Tecnam says it, after dumping god knows how much into it, but still people swear it’s right around the corner.
Define a practical aircraft. I've yet to see a government mandate that improves a car's range like we've observed the past few years.
 
Because, just as fuel contains a finite amount of energy, so does a battery. And the fact that with fuel you are consuming vastly more potential by breaking down the fuel completely rather than just moving electrons back and forth means it’s pretty safe to assume it will never come close.
Well it's a good thing that planes don't need infinite energy!

Weird stating that something will never happen. That's a lot of conviction.

Especially since electric planes actually exist, today. Just not with the specs or price that you need.
 
Well it's a good thing that planes don't need infinite energy!

Weird stating that something will never happen. That's a lot of conviction.
Weird that you claim that I stated something that I have never stated. I chose my words carefully. Read them.
 
Because, just as fuel contains a finite amount of energy, so does a battery. And the fact that with fuel you are consuming vastly more potential by breaking down the fuel completely rather than just moving electrons back and forth means it’s pretty safe to assume it will never come close.
It's obvious you don't know chemistry. ALL chemistry involves the movement of electrons, whether electrons moving between ions or electrons moving between covalent bonds.
 
Lol

in one post you claim you aren’t saying the next generation of batteries will work, and also claiming that the current generation are already working. Impressive.
No, you didn't read the sentence as I intended. There's a spectrum between current battery technology (20% of the way there) to new work such as solid state and multivalent batteries that will get us to 60%.
 
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