Doc Holliday
En-Route
But over emphasizing the numbers don't help either.
Finally a voice of reason
- Thread starter Morgan3820
- Start date
But over emphasizing the numbers don't help either.
I think we are in agreement. There is more to the south korean and singapore experience than testing alone. Their health authorities have more tools at their disposal than many other countries. Here the health department sends you a sternly worded letter, they don't send a cop to check on you or track your cellphone and credit card usage.
Methodology explained here:
https://blogs.sas.com/content/graphicallyspeaking/2019/03/18/how-deadly-was-the-flu-in-2019/
Note that I'm not a statistician or in the medical field, so I can't comment on the method used. Just curious. If we say the worst week since 2010 saw about 1600 deaths per week, that's 228/day. Pretty sure we are exceeding that.
Those are estimates out of the flu surveillance system, they do not represent 1:1 tested Influenza cases. This is an indirect measure they arrive at based on prevalence of the different strains vs. all reported deaths from 'flu and pneumonia'.
228/day. That's for the country, not one city.
Doc Holliday
En-Route
So it's 228 a day for every day?
PeterNSteinmetz
Ejection Handle Pulled
All of the interventions in the US so far appear to have at most caused a decrease in the exponential growth rate of confirmed cases from a doubling time of 2.5 days to 4.3 days (of course, those may not have been the primary determining factors). If one assumes this will continue exponentially to 70% infection or immunity for herd immunity, this means the time to achieve that was moved from around April 24 to May 17.
Please note obvious limitations for the very simple model and assuming confirmed cases are a substantial fraction of the total. But this is a rough estimate of the likely maximum effect of those interventions based on current data.
Please note obvious limitations for the very simple model and assuming confirmed cases are a substantial fraction of the total. But this is a rough estimate of the likely maximum effect of those interventions based on current data.
Everskyward
Experimenter
- Joined
- Mar 19, 2005
- Messages
- 33,453
- Display Name
Display name:
Everskyward
Right. I understood it was for the entire country. I got 228 by dividing the worst week by 7. All other weeks were better than that.
I think we agree that South Korea is an anomaly in the SARS fight. As to the comparison of a "stern letter" vs sending a cop, there's no agreement as we have a Bill of Rights and the South Koreans have a National Security Act which null and voids a number of their citizens normal rights. Apples and oranges.
Doc Holliday
En-Route
I find this a bit interesting: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvss/...w-ICD-code-introduced-for-COVID-19-deaths.pdf
Should “COVID19” be reported on the death certificate only with a confirmed test?
COVID-19 should be reported on the death certificate for all decedents where the disease caused or is
assumed to have caused or contributed to death.
Doesn't this skew the numbers? In other countries it was reported that people were dying of the Covid virus, but in most cases they were already dying and contracted the virus. So the virus wasn't necessarily the actual cause of death.
Yes. Apples and oranges. So to pick the SK data and say 'look, this isn't so bad after all' is disingenuous. There are a number of factors (some man-made, some fortuitous) that make them the outlier.
Btw. On a /100k population basis, I anticipate that after all this is over, the US will come out reasonably well. NYC is a bit of an outlier as in:
- just how densely people are piled on top of each other
- the high use of public transit
- the heterogeneity of the population when it comes to education and understanding the english language
- attitudes
- oh and some factors I cant mention here without running into the buzzsaw of Management Council enforcement
.Those areas of the country where the the social distancing interventions were put in place in time probably won't see that steep of a rise and not experience the same level of strain on the system.
Tantalum
Final Approach
- Joined
- Feb 22, 2017
- Messages
- 9,250
- Display Name
Display name:
San_Diego_Pilot
Hard to say.. heart disease and cancer aren't contagious though. Until we have a either a smarter approach to this, a vaccine, or some form of herd immunity I believe we need to take the best precautions we can
*but I did recognize the irony of someone in the car next to me with their facemask down by their neck smoking a cigarette and their phone in the other hand
PeterNSteinmetz
Ejection Handle Pulled
Here is a very interesting read. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.22.20041079
Part of its conclusion is “One-time social distancing efforts will push the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic peak into the autumn, potentially exacerbating the load on critical care resources if there is increased wintertime transmissibility.”
Part of its conclusion is “One-time social distancing efforts will push the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic peak into the autumn, potentially exacerbating the load on critical care resources if there is increased wintertime transmissibility.”
And lets not forget the tens of thousands of those traveling from China who rerouted their flights from the west coast through the EU to NY/NJ after the Jan 31 travel ban. It was a big factor in the Europe foreign national travel ban weeks later.Btw. On a /100k population basis, I anticipate that after all this is over, the US will come out reasonably well. NYC is a bit of an outlier as in:
- just how densely people are piled on top of each other
- the high use of public transit
- the heterogeneity of the population when it comes to education and understanding the english language
- attitudes
- oh and some factors I cant mention here without running into the buzzsaw of Management Council enforcement
azure
Final Approach
Very interesting read, thanks. I thought this part was especially ominous:
Kissler et al said:
This was under the assumption of no seasonal forcing, which seems to be the most reasonable assumption based on the way the virus has been spreading so far in warmer climates. 20 weeks - that's 5 months - is apparently their definition of "one time social distancing".
My takeaway from that paper is that if its conclusions are correct, we are basically screwed unless we can come up with more effective tools than social distancing alone, and much sooner than the expected year to a year and a half for development of a vaccine. The ONLY beneficial effect of our current course is to prevent total health care system collapse, at the cost of partial economic collapse. A single 5 month shutdown would already be an unimaginably serious blow to the economy. I'm afraid that collapse will become total if intermittent shutdowns of even 3 months are required into mid-2021.
Kenny Phillips
Final Approach
- Joined
- Jul 29, 2018
- Messages
- 5,634
- Display Name
Display name:
Kenny Phillips
Yes. Extreme isolation (family groups or smaller) for three or four weeks plus a total ban on international travel would have largely done the trick. And we'd be back to biz as usual already.Unfortunately we tried the educating approach and life here went on as usual so they shut places down. The whole thing sucks
genna
Pattern Altitude
- Joined
- Feb 5, 2015
- Messages
- 1,721
- Display Name
Display name:
ТУ-104
Well. Dutch are doing their little “intelligent lockdown” experiment. Time will tell.
Coronavirus: Why Dutch lockdown may be a high-risk strategy
https://alexpresents.com/2020/04/05/coronavirus-why-dutch-lockdown-may-be-a-high-risk-strategy/
Coronavirus: Why Dutch lockdown may be a high-risk strategy
https://alexpresents.com/2020/04/05/coronavirus-why-dutch-lockdown-may-be-a-high-risk-strategy/
Tantalum
Final Approach
- Joined
- Feb 22, 2017
- Messages
- 9,250
- Display Name
Display name:
San_Diego_Pilot
And the measures seem to work.. they've been super aggressive around here, even closed the harbor to boating and have been ticketing people for going outside without a good reason. 22 people were ticketed just the other night for watching the sunset by the beach..
However, as much as these freedom curtailments suck, California only had 800 new cases in the last 24 hours.. for a state with 40 million people that's amazing
New York has 20 million and 10K new cases.. and their measures started later
azure
Final Approach
Except that unless EVERYONE did it worldwide, or a strict ban on international travel was kept in place after isolation was lifted, the virus would come back sooner or later... probably sooner.
The measures work, but since this pandemic is global, they're not going to have a permanent effect until herd immunity is achieved.
PeterNSteinmetz
Ejection Handle Pulled
Yes, good to read the actual studies rather than believing the talking heads.
The measures in the US may have bought 3 weeks delay (can’t know for certain yet) and might make things worse in the fall.
From a scientific perspective, the variety of approaches being attempted around the world is going to be a subject of study for some years to come.
Chip Sylverne
Final Approach
- Joined
- Jun 17, 2006
- Messages
- 6,008
- Display Name
Display name:
Quit with the negative waves, man.
Yep. Somebody came up with the idea that participation of less than 100% is analogous to allowing a peeing section in your swimming pool.
After we all stop living the death rate will be 0. Brilliant.
Kenny Phillips
Final Approach
- Joined
- Jul 29, 2018
- Messages
- 5,634
- Display Name
Display name:
Kenny Phillips
Just as a comparison:
70% who get it are asymptomatic.
In 0.5% of cases there is muscle weakness; of those, up to 5% of children and 30% of adults die.
Many recover completely, some have permanent disabililties.
That was polio, which was still running wild when I was a child; I remember queueing up to take the oral vaccine.
70% who get it are asymptomatic.
In 0.5% of cases there is muscle weakness; of those, up to 5% of children and 30% of adults die.
Many recover completely, some have permanent disabililties.
That was polio, which was still running wild when I was a child; I remember queueing up to take the oral vaccine.