EV vs ICE the real cost to individuals. N/A

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bluesideup

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bluesideup
Hi everyone.

After seeing that gent trying for over .5 hrs to get in his car, I started thinking about what the actual cost to individuals is to get one vs the other built and used.

A couple of things to consider:

1- Ignore CO2, which can be discussed on a different post as to how it, and humans, affect and control, global warming.... which is the big selling point.

2-Consider that Gov subsidies will eventually stop at some point.

3-Consider an equal value vehicles when they are first sold.

I've read a lot of articles about it and everyone that I've see is based in one direction or another.

What I cannot find out is a good approximation on what the cost is / will be for some of the rare metals, motors, wires, magnets and their life, batteries life, cost to build, cost of the extraction of the materials used and life in a real way, not the implied that some portions of the materials that cannot be recycled efficiently at this time, cost.

Also looking at the data available it would appear that EV owners are more likely to sell / buy a new car more often than ICE by at least a factor of 2.

Basically what is the overall cost in pollution, other than CO2, to manufacture and long term use of the 2 types.
 
Why not pick Argon as the basic parameter to reduce all climactic functions to. It just sounds cooler and is equally as valid.
 
You are asking for an actual cost-benefit analysis on a pilots forum? Most people on this type of board have trained themselves to ignore cost-benefit and just buy something they can't afford because they like it.

But I'm not sure if you have considered the resale value of an EV (thinking Tesla here) in your cost of ownership calculations. That consideration puts a big PLUS on the Pro side of the equation for EVs.
 
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It’s just a matter of time… in the early 1900s you could invest in a buggy manufacturer or a goofball named Ford who wanted to make cars everyone would drive. They’re weren’t adequate roads and infrastructure for them, not many people knew how to fix such a crazy contraption, there wasn’t many gas stations, etc, there was a lot going against em. The buggy n horse were tried and true…

today we have a similar bet to make.

My opinion is the ships sailed already… it’s not out of the harbor yet but it’s set sail…

I doubt we have access to those numbers but GM and Ford probably do… Seems like they’ve made their bet
 
bluesideup said:
Hi everyone.

After seeing that gent trying for over .5 hrs to get in his car, I started thinking about what the actual cost to individuals is to get one vs the other built and used.

A couple of things to consider:

1- Ignore CO2, which can be discussed on a different post as to how it, and humans, affect and control, global warming.... which is the big selling point.

2-Consider that Gov subsidies will eventually stop at some point.

3-Consider an equal value vehicles when they are first sold.

I've read a lot of articles about it and everyone that I've see is based in one direction or another.

What I cannot find out is a good approximation on what the cost is / will be for some of the rare metals, motors, wires, magnets and their life, batteries life, cost to build, cost of the extraction of the materials used and life in a real way, not the implied that some portions of the materials that cannot be recycled efficiently at this time, cost.

Also looking at the data available it would appear that EV owners are more likely to sell / buy a new car more often than ICE by at least a factor of 2.

Basically what is the overall cost in pollution, other than CO2, to manufacture and long term use of the 2 types.
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So’s I’m wondering, WTF does ICE have to do with this. Ask him I say to myself. But then I say, JGID(just google it dummy.) And lo and behold….https://cleantechnica.com/2020/10/13/whats-an-ev-whats-an-ice-whats-a-c-segment-car/

And oh yeah, what’s this thing bout it takes some dude half an hour to get into his car and how does it relate to what kinda juice a car uses?
 
Huckster79 said:
It’s just a matter of time… in the early 1900s you could invest in a buggy manufacturer or a goofball named Ford who wanted to make cars everyone would drive. They’re weren’t adequate roads and infrastructure for them, not many people knew how to fix such a crazy contraption, there wasn’t many gas stations, etc, there was a lot going against em. The buggy n horse were tried and true…

today we have a similar bet to make.

My opinion is the ships sailed already… it’s not out of the harbor yet but it’s set sail…

I doubt we have access to those numbers but GM and Ford probably do… Seems like they’ve made their bet
Click to expand...
Yeah we just need to invest in nuclear R&D so we can stop with the fossil fuels and wind powered bird killers.
 
EdFred said:
So if it's 9 years to break even, but EV owners go through cars twice as fast, they really hate the Earth, don't they?
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What happens to the old EV when an owner gets a new one?
 
Huckster79 said:
It’s just a matter of time… in the early 1900s you could invest in a buggy manufacturer or a goofball named Ford who wanted to make cars everyone would drive. ...
Click to expand...

Not every attempt at innovation is successful.

To relate this to aviation... consider what happened with MLS and LORAN.
 
  • less tailpipe emissions in cities, probably more pollution elsewhere
  • lower $/mi opex, at least until increased demand drives up the price of electricity
  • lower mx costs
  • better/more sustainable margins for manufacturers as a) more things move towards upgrades/subscriptions rather than ownership b) we're all driving data collection/exfiltration supercomputers around that also happen to be cars
 
Bob Noel said:
What happens to the old EV when an owner gets a new one?
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Same thing that happens with traditional cars, I assume. But how many 10 and 20 year old teslas are out there? SO I cant answer that exactly. But you don't get your years back when you keep buying new at twice the rate. The destruction is upfront with the EV. Sort of like home ownership. You only really get equity on the back end. Keep moving sideways in the house market every 3 years you're never recouping.
 
GeorgeC said:
  • less tailpipe emissions in cities, probably more pollution elsewhere
  • lower $/mi opex, at least until increased demand drives up the price of electricity
  • lower mx costs
  • better/more sustainable margins for manufacturers as a) more things move towards upgrades/subscriptions rather than ownership b) we're all driving data collection/exfiltration supercomputers around that also happen to be cars
Click to expand...

also:

What's the cost of providing for the increased load on the electrical generation capacity?

What's the savings of needing less gasoline distribution capacity?
 
EdFred said:
Same thing that happens with traditional cars, but you don't get your years back when you keep buying new at twice the rate.
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not everyone buys new

and it was my understanding that the point was the energy cost of manufacturing the vehicle. In which case, as long as the EV lasts longer than 9 years, the savings exists regardless of how many different people own the car.
 
Mtns2Skies said:
TLDR - Energy consumption to make an EV is 70% more than its ICE counterpart. It would take 9 years on average before they even out.
Click to expand...

Add to that the environmental cost of the battery replacement and recycling, which probably is needed a lot sooner than 9 years / 70K miles...

EVs are a great idea for New York City, not so much for Wyoming or even western New York state.
 
Bob Noel said:
not everyone buys new

and it was my understanding that the point was the energy cost of manufacturing the vehicle. In which case, as long as the EV lasts longer than 9 years, the savings exists regardless of how many different people own the car.
Click to expand...

I was looking it from an individuals impact. Since EVs are new and EV people buy at twice the rate for the individual its new cars that are being bought.
 
EdFred said:
Same thing that happens with traditional cars, I assume. But how many 10 and 20 year old teslas are out there? SO I cant answer that exactly. But you don't get your years back when you keep buying new at twice the rate. The destruction is upfront with the EV. Sort of like home ownership. You only really get equity on the back end. Keep moving sideways in the house market every 3 years you're never recouping.
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If I ask politely, will you point me to something that says EV owners buy cars at twice the rate of ICE owners? And if that is true, I wonder if it says more about the owners than it does the cars? I am almost 70, and all my life I have known people that would buy new every 2 years (My stepfather for instance,who died poor) and people that buy much less frequently. I tend to buy new, for cash, about every 10 years or so.
 
JOhnH said:
If I ask politely, will you point me to something that says EV owners buy cars at twice the rate of ICE owners? And if that is true, I wonder if it says more about the owners than it does the cars? I am almost 70, and all my life I have known people that would buy new every 2 years (My stepfather for instance,who died poor) and people that buy much less frequently. I tend to buy new, for cash, about every 10 years or so.
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It's what was stated in the first post of the thread. And if buying and EV isnt about saving money or the planet, and is just a status/statement, I could see it being true.

I'm a ~10 years per vehicle person as well. 11 and 12 on the last 2 4 wheels and 18 or 19 on the bike. 13 on the plane.
 
EdFred said:
It's what was stated in the first post of the thread.
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Ok, so I asked the wrong person. But you quoted it as if you believed it.


bluesideup said:
Also looking at the data available it would appear that EV owners are more likely to sell / buy a new car more often than ICE by at least a factor of 2.
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Perhaps @bluesideup could show us that data.
 
EdFred said:
It's what was stated in the first post of the thread. And if buying and EV isnt about saving money or the planet, and is just a status/statement, I could see it being true.
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The first post listed it as an assumption. At this point, I don't see that assumption as being supported in anyway. @JOhnH questioned whether it held.
 
Bob Noel said:
also:

What's the cost of providing for the increased load on the electrical generation capacity?

What's the savings of needing less gasoline distribution capacity?
Click to expand...

The vast majority of the charging happens at night, when power companies have lots of excess capacity.
 
So 9 years to break even energy wise. How long did the battery in your last phone last? Your laptop? About the time they're ready to "break even" they're ready for a new energy intensive battery. I don't want to own a 9 year old EV. Do you?

That said, I bought a new PHEV this year. The old one was only 2 years old. It makes financial sense as I get a $7500 credit from Uncle Sam. Hey thanks for subsidizing my new car guys!

The dealer gave me a great trade in for the old one, so there must be a used market. I'd hate to be the guy who bought it though as Chrysler just announced a recall on them for fire risk. They said not to charge them until further notice. Of course he'll probably turn out okay as Chrysler will probably have to give him a new battery. Oops... so much for that 9 year life cycle.
 
bluesideup said:
What I cannot find out is a good approximation on what the cost is / will be for some of the rare metals, motors, wires, magnets and their life, batteries life, cost to build, cost of the extraction of the materials used and life in a real way, not the implied that some portions of the materials that cannot be recycled efficiently at this time, cost.
Click to expand...
If you found good information on that, it would most likely point to EVs not being the panacea they’re advertising.
 
MauleSkinner said:
So you confirmed one word out of that paragraph. ;)
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It seems that every word, claim, counter claim, objection and brag on this topic has been confirmed or denied hundreds of times in multiple threads.
 
9 years and 70k miles is worst case and that’s based on a UK study. Most studies done show about 20K miles and 1.5-2 years. Guess it all depends on who you want to believe.

https://www.epa.gov/greenvehicles/electric-vehicle-myths

https://www.electrive.com/2020/08/3...tric-cars-cause-less-co2-emissions-than-ices/

https://www.theverge.com/2021/7/21/...greenhouse-gas-emissions-lifecycle-assessment

If my S is still on its original battery at 115K miles, it’s definitely made up for its increase in greenhouse gas emissions during manufacturing. But, I didn’t buy it to save the planet or some perceived status. I bought it because it’s a blast to drive, the tech is awesome and it’s better looking than 90% of the cars on the road.
 
Huckster79 said:
It’s just a matter of time… in the early 1900s you could invest in a buggy manufacturer or a goofball named Ford who wanted to make cars everyone would drive. They’re weren’t adequate roads and infrastructure for them, not many people knew how to fix such a crazy contraption, there wasn’t many gas stations, etc, there was a lot going against em. The buggy n horse were tried and true…

today we have a similar bet to make.

My opinion is the ships sailed already… it’s not out of the harbor yet but it’s set sail…

I doubt we have access to those numbers but GM and Ford probably do… Seems like they’ve made their bet
Click to expand...

I feel like this is a poor analogy. In the early 1900s, you could have also made your bet on one of the electrical vehicle manufacturers of the time. And you would have lost your money as they went out of business.
 
EdFred said:
So if it's 9 years to break even, but EV owners go through cars twice as fast, they really hate the Earth, don't they?
Click to expand...

Depending upon the assumptions.

That's at 7,400 miles per year; according to that article. The average in the US is 14,263 miles per year; article. That's also with the global mix of electricity production. Globally 39% of electricity was produced by coal in 2015. In 2021 the US was at just over 19%; Georgia is down to 15%. At half the coal and twice the miles per year and the napkin math should come out to under 2.5 years to balance it out. The use of natural gas to produce power probably brings it up somewhat though.

The EV cars are still expensive to buy. Hard to make up the difference long term if one is struggling to pay bills with the high upfront cost. Those in better financial shape could in theory save money long term, but not if they keep buying a newer model every two or three years.
 
Huckster79 said:
It’s just a matter of time… in the early 1900s you could invest in a buggy manufacturer or a goofball named Ford who wanted to make cars everyone would drive. They’re weren’t adequate roads and infrastructure for them, not many people knew how to fix such a crazy contraption, there wasn’t many gas stations, etc, there was a lot going against em. The buggy n horse were tried and true…

today we have a similar bet to make.

My opinion is the ships sailed already… it’s not out of the harbor yet but it’s set sail…

I doubt we have access to those numbers but GM and Ford probably do… Seems like they’ve made their bet
Click to expand...

I feel like this is a poor analogy. In the early 1900s, you could have also made your bet on one of the electrical vehicle manufacturers of the time. And you would have lost your money as they went out of business.

Edit to add: You could have also invested in a number of companies pursuing steam-powered cars.

Just because something is novel, doesn't mean it's going to be successful.
 
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Huckster79 said:
in the early 1900s you could invest in a buggy manufacturer or a goofball named Ford who wanted to make cars everyone would drive. They’re weren’t adequate roads and infrastructure for them, not many people knew how to fix such a crazy contraption, there wasn’t many gas stations, etc, there was a lot going against em. The buggy n horse were tried and true…
Click to expand...

In 1895 Electric cars out numbered ICE cars. One simple thing killed the EV cars back then..... the electric starter... Never mind there was less than 200 miles of paved roads back then, and EV cars had a range of 10-15 miles, at a top speed of 13mph....Lord Mr. Ford....


 
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