Dorian - Here we blow again....

Abaco Island will likely be forever changed after Dorian passes. As in having to redraw maps.

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Freeport is next up. That could be catastrophic. Imagine a 90 mph wind. Now imagine something with 4x the punch. Almost literally unimaginable and worse than Andrew.
 
FastEddieB said:
Abaco Island will likely be forever changed after Dorian passes. As in having to redraw maps.

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Freeport is next up. That could be catastrophic. Imagine a 90 mph wind. Now imagine something with 4x the punch. Almost literally unimaginable and worse than Andrew.
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I’m with you, Eddie, it’s very sad to watch this all unfold. Nassau, a place I absolutely love is likely to be greatly changed after this system rolls through. My thoughts are with them all...
 
FOX NEWS saying Dorian is officially the strongest hurricane on record in the northwestern Bahamas.

As slow as it’s moving too... :eek:
 
The smart money is betting on a Florida landfall near Stuart. Apparently that’s where Jim Cantore is.

I understand the NHC is now tracking Cantore and including the “Cone of Cantore” in their forecast model...
 
Half Fast said:
The smart money is betting on a Florida landfall near Stuart. Apparently that’s where Jim Cantore is.

I understand the NHC is now tracking Cantore and including the “Cone of Cantore” in their forecast model...
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Doubt it. A few days ago it was tracking that way, but given where everything is pointing now this will probably just blow out to sea and drop a lot of rain and wind on the east coast of FL.

I'm sure Jim will be disappointed though :)
 
Holy blowhard Batman! 220 mph gusts. Yikes... o_O

26.88 inches min pressure. :eek:


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Half Fast said:
The smart money is betting on a Florida landfall near Stuart. Apparently that’s where Jim Cantore is.

I understand the NHC is now tracking Cantore and including the “Cone of Cantore” in their forecast model...
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I heard Cantore is now in Birmingham awaiting Dorian to hit Alabama.
 
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Supposedly a drone shot somewhere in Abaco, facebooks by an exsquadronmate who does the snowbird thing between Texas and Eleuthera. Cannot confirm validity or date stamp of the shot, just forwarding a pic shared via FB.
 
hindsight2020 said:
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Supposedly a drone shot somewhere in Abaco, facebooks by an exsquadronmate who does the snowbird thing between Texas and Eleuthera. Cannot confirm validity or date stamp of the shot, just forwarding a pic shared via FB.
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That looks more like Michael in Florida panhandle. Think Dorian is still hitting Abaco

Update - here's the picture - of Florida after Michael - https://www.wkrg.com/northwest-flor...uy-tax-free-during-florida-sales-tax-holiday/

Not trying to be a jerk (though I might be succeeding), but that's not the Bahamas
 
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It’s crazy how slow it’s moving. That continued destruction is terrible.
 
I think it’s equally crazy that the air force flies planes right into that thing!!!
 
I saw a huge number of trainers from Florida parked at KRYY at Kennesaw GA (just north of Atlanta) on Friday. When I arrived Friday afternoon, I asked for tie-down, and I was told sorry, every possible tie-down has been taken by Florida flightschools that suddenly appeared en-masse on the ramp.

Ryanb said:
Here’s your answer. ERAU fleet heading out!
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NoHeat said:
I saw a huge number of trainers from Florida parked at KRYY at Kennesaw GA (just north of Atlanta) on Friday. When I arrived Friday afternoon, I asked for tie-down, and I was told sorry, every possible tie-down has been taken by Florida flightschools that suddenly appeared en-masse on the ramp.
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In years past, CHA used to act as a reliever some of these hurricane evacuees, but I haven’t seen much activity from them on this go-round. Wondering if a lot of folks are just bunkering down the hatches...
 
I would think one of the goals of a repositioning flight would be to locate the airplane(s) somewhere they are easily recoverable. RYY is pretty good for this because you're 30 minutes from Hartsfield, so you can fly your C-172 to RYY, catch Uber to Hartsfield, fly home to Daytona or Orlando, and when the storm is gone, you reverse the trip. The reality is you can get from Hartsfield to just about any medium sized city on the East coast in one 2 hour leg...
 
So what is CNN going to do if it misses the US coast alltogether ?
 
weilke said:
So what is CNN going to do if it misses the US coast alltogether ?
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Doesn't matter...hardly anyone watches them anymore anyway.

Hopefully they will celebrate.
 
weilke said:
So what is CNN going to do if it misses the US coast alltogether ?
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I’m sure they can put together a panel to yell at each other about something.
 
wrbix said:
I’m sure they can put together a panel to yell at each other about something.
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Well, we know who caused it*, even if it never hits the shore.




* Apparently the Koch brothers, but that's so far only single sourced.
 
F01LA said:
This doesn't completely answer the question, but between 1970 and 2004, 3,612 people died due to Winter Weather. 304 died because of hurricanes and tropical storms.

https://www.prb.org/disasters-by-type/
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Yeah, thousands didn’t die in Puerto Rico after Maria, nor did anyone die after Katrina did in New Orleans. The BS can get pretty thick in here.
 
steingar said:
Yeah, thousands didn’t die in Puerto Rico after Maria, nor did anyone die after Katrina did in New Orleans. The BS can get pretty thick in here.
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You might have missed the “...between 1970 and 2004...” part of the quoted statistic.
 
steingar said:
Yeah, thousands didn’t die in Puerto Rico after Maria, nor did anyone die after Katrina did in New Orleans. The BS can get pretty thick in here.
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Yeah 304 looks low. Interestingly 11% of the 1800 or so deaths attributed to Katrina were heart failure. Heh.

I’m not sure how one attributes that 30 years of dietary decisions to a hurricane, but anyway... LOL. Maybe the other site left those out, don’t know. Many disaster managers use both direct and indirect numbers for deaths in natural disasters.

(And if you’ve been to Louisiana, you’ll wonder how that heart attack number wasn’t higher than 11%. Lol!)

The interesting thing about Katrina when we talked at length to a NO resident when we were there, is how very small the flooded area of the city was. We toured it. The guy doing the tour said many who live there were always surprised at the weird TV coverage only showing the Ward that the levee broke in.

(That dude was also beaded for a massive heart attack. Seriously. He was past Fluffy on the Gabriel Iglesias scale that ends with “Damn!” in his comedy routine. LOL!)

It was also quite interesting that in this relatively small area of the city how entire blocks still have abandoned houses with the occasional rebuilt one right in the middle of the block.

When we asked about this, the tour driver said a number of them were owned by celebrities who made a big show of rebuilding theirs, but left the rest of the block to its own resources. He named the specific celebrities by house. LOL. He also named a handful that actually helped the city and what they fixed or invested in. He did mention that a number of those were investments and those celebs made their money back and then some.

We have a non-zero number of people drop dead shoveling snow of heart attacks here, too. Not sure I couldn’t chuckle a bit if someone blamed the storm on that. And yeah, I knew one personally. Dropped dead in his garage trying to pull frozen sandbags (for traction) out of the bed of his pickup truck.
 
Didn't the Soviets claim that something like only 4 people died from Chernobyl?

PS.. I elected (against better judgement) to watch some news earlier and it was sad seeing all the reporters by Florida beaches in full weather regalia standing there in a light breeze and no rain. They were making a big fuss about Daytona Beach.. seems pretty tame at the moment there

Granted... parts of the Bahamas were indeed devastated.. but it's a CAT 2 now.. the media hysterics can be dialed down from 11 I'd say

The winds are swift for sure.. but at 20-30 knots that is not unheard of.. I mean the field is VFR
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benyflyguy said:
I think it’s equally crazy that the air force flies planes right into that thing!!!
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I've been told that with all the air moving in the same direction it's not *that* bad. They fly into these things all the time rather safely.. although there was a cool story of one that had an engine failure inside the air

Now flying into a CB... that's a whole other matter. I think there used to be ONE plane that was built to fly into CBs, a T-28 that had a reinforced wingspar, plus other enhancements, and could withstand hail 3 inches in diameter.. and would plow into thunderstorms at 20,000 ft.. and there were talks of using an A10 to do the same.. but it unfortunately never got off the ground. CBs are the real dangerous aircraft killers
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/23088/the-tragic-tale-of-the-a-10-thunderhog-storm-chasing-jet
^that's a cool link, well worth the read
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Tantalum said:
Didn't the Soviets claim that something like only 4 people died from Chernobyl?

PS.. I elected (against better judgement) to watch some news earlier and it was sad seeing all the reporters by Florida beaches in full weather regalia standing there in a light breeze and no rain. They were making a big fuss about Daytona Beach.. seems pretty tame at the moment there
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It is still pretty tame here in the Daytona area. At 6:42am, we still have power. But it is drizzling just a little bit too much to sit out on our porch, under the lanai to drink our coffee. So we are ensconsed up under the overhang.

Initial death reports are always low in disasters though. They generally only report known deaths and during the disaster, nobody is out looking. I bet they find hundreds, if not thousands of poor demised citizens who "sheltered in place".
 
MooneyDriver78 said:
He knows where to go for maximum visual effects :



Tom
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No doubt. Weather reporting just like the regular news seems to be all theatre these days. There had always been a degree of sensationalism in the news but it has gotten far more pronounced. We like our news like our politicians, full of hyperbole with a good dose of superlatives on top.
 
SkyDog58 said:
No doubt. Weather reporting just like the regular news seems to be all theatre these days. There had always been a degree of sensationalism in the news but it has gotten far more pronounced. We like our news like our politicians, full of hyperbole with a good dose of superlatives on top.
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Washington Post is reporting that the Carolinas are "poised" to get "SLAMMED" next.

Problem is, it's a boy who cried wolf scenario. All the people who didn't leave Florida (my brother being one of them) likely won't leave for future events either, despite what the clowns on TV say. Everyone can open a radar app and see the computer projected courses, windspeeds, etc. They would do this in Boston too.. they started naming winterstorms, they'd cancel school 3 days out.. and we'd get two inches of snow, then sleet, then rain, and by 2pm it was all gone. So much for the "SNOWMAGGEDON" event
 
Tantalum said:
Problem is, it's a boy who cried wolf scenario.
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A few weeks ago a weatherman was fired for saying that while on air. The station kept issuing weather alerts to drum up attention and he'd had enough, and said that it was dangerous because people would start ignoring the alerts. He's unemployed, but I admire him for his integrity.
 
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