I think we've derailed this COVID thread enough even by PoA standards. If you'd like to continue further on the virtues of proper debate and discourse create a new thread in Hangar Talk or shoot me a PM. Til then...Okay by me, so do I.
I think we've derailed this COVID thread enough even by PoA standards. If you'd like to continue further on the virtues of proper debate and discourse create a new thread in Hangar Talk or shoot me a PM. Til then...Okay by me, so do I.
Isn't the Green Mountain Club a volunteer organization not affiliated with the state? Seems like they would make their own decisions within the framework of Vermont's or the local area policies. If the trails run through state parks or national forest land, that may also have a bearing. Around here (San Francisco Bay Area) different localities have varying policies with regard to open space. For example, beaches and parks in the city and county of SF have been open the entire time. Not so in some of the surrounding counties, although I think most have reopened by now, with some restrictions. I am a volunteer gardener on Alcatraz. That was shut down by the Conservancy before any government orders went into effect.And here's an aspect of Vermont's response to the pandemic that makes no sense to me: The Green Mountain Club has closed all of the trails that they maintain "until further notice". It's not an edict from the governor, they just won't be doing any trail maintenance and want everyone to stay off the trails to avoid spreading the virus. I can see not wanting to work on the outhouses and not staffing shelters - and it would probably be stupid to overnight in a crowded shelter anyway - but they are very unlikely to spread the virus by working, with reasonable protection, to maintain trails, reroute eroded stretches, repair puncheon on stream crossings, etc. And hikers, at least day hikers, are VERY unlikely to spread the virus in the outdoors anyway - it is normally quite windy on most stretches of the Long Trail and other ridgeline trails and you are extremely unlikely to breathe in coughed or sneezed droplets or ingest any significant viral load from a passing hiker's breath.
It makes perfect sense to close the trails during Mud Season - they do that every year - but this policy sounds a little like being so afraid of the virus that you stop living. And to me that is going too far.
Isn't the Green Mountain Club a volunteer organization not affiliated with the state? Seems like they would make their own decisions within the framework of Vermont's or the local area policies. If the trails run through state parks or national forest land, that may also have a bearing. Around here (San Francisco Bay Area) different localities have varying policies with regard to open space. For example, beaches and parks in the city and county of SF have been open the entire time. Not so in some of the surrounding counties, although I think most have reopened by now, with some restrictions. I am a volunteer gardener on Alcatraz. That was shut down by the Conservancy before any government orders went into effect.
Yes, not surprising. Screening procedures are on hold, as are elective procedures such as biopsies. Many primary care clinics have closed or drastically cut back their services. I am several months overdue for my annual mammogram and it is not going to be scheduled anytime soon.And a modeling study predicting there will be an excess of 33,890 deaths due to cancer in the US in the next year because of the responses to Covid-19. "the model estimated 6,270 excess deaths at 1 year in England and 33,890 excess deaths in the US." This is for cancer only. In preprint form at this time.
https://www.researchgate.net/public..._and_multimorbidity_in_the_COVID-19_emergency
Total number of cases that we know about.... We can only report cases that are known. If we don't test, we don't know. There are still lots of places where testing is reserved for only those who are very sick.But unless there is considerable diversion going on, it does seem now like an overreaction to continue this in counties where the total number of cases since the start of the pandemic can be counted on one hand.
Granted, we only know about the cases that have tested positive. But those are the ones that overwhelm the health system. The people with mild infections who recover at home are not going to be an issue regardless. Even if they come in and are diagnosed, they are sent home to self-quarantine unless they get worse, and I have to think most of the serious cases are ultimately caught and diagnosed. (Yes, there will always be people who die at home without ever seeing a doctor and are never diagnosed, but I strongly suspect those are rare exceptions.)Total number of cases that we know about.... We can only report cases that are known. If we don't test, we don't know. There are still lots of places where testing is reserved for only those who are very sick.
And that would be my guess as to why elective non critical procedures are not being done. We don't have the capacity to treat each of those patients as though they're infected (positive pressure rooms, full PPE, etc) and we don't have the capacity to test them to verify they're negative before entering the facility.
So what.Total number of cases that we know about.... We can only report cases that are known. If we don't test, we don't know. There are still lots of places where testing is reserved for only those who are very sick.
And that would be my guess as to why elective non critical procedures are not being done. We don't have the capacity to treat each of those patients as though they're infected (positive pressure rooms, full PPE, etc) and we don't have the capacity to test them to verify they're negative before entering the facility.
So what.
Total number of cases that we know about.... We can only report cases that are known. If we don't test, we don't know. There are still lots of places where testing is reserved for only those who are very sick.
And that would be my guess as to why elective non critical procedures are not being done. We don't have the capacity to treat each of those patients as though they're infected (positive pressure rooms, full PPE, etc) and we don't have the capacity to test them to verify they're negative before entering the facility.
The "so what" is that public health officials are trying to thread the needle between a complete lockdown and free-for-all viral spread by gradually opening up economic activity while monitoring and attempting to control local outbreaks. To do that successfully, you must be doing enough testing to catch local outbreaks before they run away, and you have to reserve enough hospital capacity to isolate and treat the patients from local outbreaks. If you don't test, you don't know what is out there. It's not going to be easy to get it right...the path forward is going to be iterative, with testing, hospital admissions, and mortality statistics guiding policy. The measures will lag inputs by 7-21 days depending on which measure you consider.
I liked your post once, but I'd like to like it more than once.There is no such thing as zero risk, and trying to create the impossible out of good intentions is catastrophic.
If you delay routine physicals, mammograms, colonoscopies, and so forth because some hypothetical person might have asymptomatic COVID-19, you're just shifting the risk to the very real people whose health unquestionably is being endangered by denial of medical services. To protect hypothetical people from a possible risk caused by a theoretical person who might be asymptomatically infected, you're causing actual harm to actual people. But they don't matter. They're expendable.
This sort of myopia is typical of this entire response. Nothing and no one matters except the virus. You've given the virus celebrity status, and no one else's pain, suffering, medical condition, jobs, businesses, nor even their lives, matter anymore.
Neither do the jobs of health care providers who are being laid off and furloughed because the restrictions leave their hospitals with no work for them to do, matter. If they're treating COVID cases, health care workers are heroes. Otherwise, they're expendable, along with their patients.
Rich
Umm ok. It’s time to let it ride. We can’t afford to continue on our current path. The money is gone.The "so what" is that public health officials are trying to thread the needle between a complete lockdown and free-for-all viral spread by gradually opening up economic activity while monitoring and attempting to control local outbreaks. To do that successfully, you must be doing enough testing to catch local outbreaks before they run away, and you have to reserve enough hospital capacity to isolate and treat the patients from local outbreaks. If you don't test, you don't know what is out there. It's not going to be easy to get it right...the path forward is going to be iterative, with testing, hospital admissions, and mortality statistics guiding policy. The measures will lag inputs by 7-21 days depending on which measure you consider.
I'm all for doing what Sweden did. So let's start with free healthcare and free education. Lets cut our rate of diabetes from 10.80% to 4.8%. Lets cut our rate of obesity from 36.2% to 20.6%. And then we too can not lock down and only experience a covid-19 death rate that is 72 people per 1M population higher than what we currently have. Sign me up.
I'm all for doing what Sweden did. So let's start with free healthcare and free education. Lets cut our rate of diabetes from 10.80% to 4.8%. Lets cut our rate of obesity from 36.2% to 20.6%. And then we too can not lock down and only experience a covid-19 death rate that is 72 people per 1M population higher than what we currently have. Sign me up.
I'm all for doing what Sweden did. So let's start with free healthcare and free education. Lets cut our rate of diabetes from 10.80% to 4.8%. Lets cut our rate of obesity from 36.2% to 20.6%. And then we too can not lock down and only experience a covid-19 death rate that is 72 people per 1M population higher than what we currently have. Sign me up.
I don't have a political agenda. But I have also not seen data that definitively counts victims of the lockdown itself other than by pure speculation.Again, you're ignoring the victims of the lockdown itself. Oh wait, I forgot: they don't advance a political agenda, so they don't matter.
Economies eventually recover; dead people don't. Will more people will die with lockdowns than without them? I'm not sure we have enough data to answer that question.Again, you're ignoring the victims of the lockdown itself....
I don't have a political agenda. But I have also not seen data that definitively counts victims of the lockdown itself other than by pure speculation.
Economies eventually recover; dead people don't. Will more people will die with lockdowns than without them? I'm not sure we have enough data to answer that question.
If that were true, some of the lockdown orders that are currently in effect in my state would not exist.Most people, if allowed to do so, will choose to go about their lives, but will take the simple precautions needed to protect themselves.
If that were true, some of the lockdown orders that are currently in effect in my state would not exist.
free healthcare and free education
It should have been apparent weeks ago that we had gone too far because our hospitals have been under utilized. Emergency hospitals were set up and never used.
The objective is herd immunity, but to reach that you have 1) do widespread testing and 2) let some people get infected. You cannot reach herd immunity without having some sick people.
The emergency hospitals in Central Park and the Javits center, in NYC, were actually used.<SNIP>
It should have been apparent weeks ago that we had gone too far because our hospitals have been under utilized. Emergency hospitals were set up and never used.
Apparently.So... The self-preservation instinct has been repealed in your state?
Rich
Contract tracing may work in areas where people don't have much contact with strangers, but not so much in others. I went on a long walk yesterday (about 10 miles), then decided to take the bus home. That was interesting. No social distancing. Most seats were full except for the ones near sketchy people. Passengers are supposed to wear a mask, but that is impossible to enforce because they are also supposed to board through the rear doors unless they need the "kneeling bus" function. This is in order to protect the driver. Even in better days, the front door was mostly used for elderly, handicapped, and those who paid with cash. This was my first bus ride since lockdown (March 17). Not sure how contract tracing will work in these situations, and I was closer to these people than I have been to anyone else through the period.How contact tracing can help the U.S. get control over coronavirus
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/health...can-help-the-u-s-get-control-over-coronavirus
by the looks of things....people are too stupid for self preservation.So... The self-preservation instinct has been repealed in your state?
Rich
No. It's just that everyone has been trained to believe that someone else will protect them.by the looks of things....people are too stupid for self preservation.
And we will pay for the huge bailout with the dollars already in our pocket. Money dilution.I don’t believe you understand the word free. None of that is free, it all gets paid for by the population. If we taxed at that rate, almost none of could afford to fly.
Sweden’s response is not based on having free services, it is based on a rational approach that does not prevent work, does not require quarantining healthy people for their own good and does not create resentment in the population. It is voluntary, with the ability to get stricter if necessary. the people decide their level of activity.
The objective is herd immunity, but to reach that you have let some people get infected. You cannot reach herd immunity without having some sick people. The voluntary nature means those who have the highest risk can isolate the most.
It should have been apparent weeks ago that we had gone too far because our hospitals have been under utilized. Emergency hospitals were set up and never used.
Economies eventually recover; dead people don't. Will more people will die with lockdowns than without them? I'm not sure we have enough data to answer that question.
by the looks of things....people are too stupid for self preservation.