Did you catch it ?

PaulS said:
It's all muddied up, but the initial alarm came from a doctor, who was disciplined by the Chinese government for sounding the alarm. This doctor disappeared for a while, then reappeared, but unfortunately succumb to the virus. I believe this doctor spoke up near the end of December. Then there was a lot of muddled information. Apparent misstatements about the severity and many claims that the virus did not pass amongst humans, then only passed during close contact. The WHO urged calm and said it was not an issue and that China was containing it. They weren't.

Then at the end of January the executive branch of the US made an executive decision and shut down travel from the affected areas. In hindsight, travel from all of China should have been shut down. The WHO said it was unnecessary and the decision was panned as xenophobic and racist at the time, the House went so far as to consider a bill limiting the executive branch's ability to ban travel.

Had China been more forth coming with what was going on, this may have been contained. But that unfortunately is water under the bridge at this point. When all this settles down, the world needs to take a hard look at what happened and China, more specifically, the Chinese communist government, should be held to task as to why this happened the way it did. The issue of whether this virus escaped or worse from a lab hasn't been fully explored either. It's a huge CF.
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:yeahthat:
 
Cap'n Jack said:
Again, I was hearing about it, from people who lived there. That means our government was hearing about it (or should have heard about it). I also heard about stuff being shut down. Our government should have known, too. When they shut down Spring Festival, that should have been a real wake-up call. It is the equivalent of cancelling Christmas and Thanksgiving over there. If I knew, then the US government should have known.

Sorry if I'm being repetitive, but despite what their government and WHO were saying, there were plenty of indications this was really bad over there.

Do you think I'm either lying, or that I have special sources of information?
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I knew (at least, I knew the potential if this 'got loose'), and I acted. But I'm a germophobe, and I don't want to die.
 
danhagan said:
If you have a pulmonologist, please check with them as steroids are great for correcting normal shortness of breath and lung disorder episodes ... ER friend of mine in Louisiana told me that patients that received steroid treatment with COVID 19 accelerated their "respiratory storm" (he said the PCPs in the area were being updated) ... my son has severe lung problems, and he passed this on to me to be VERY careful and make sure everyone is on the same page if exposure occurs ...
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This was the reason for a hypo rather than the "course" of steroids... Steroids knock down resistance to anything... I have improved rather than not. And I am aware of my physiology.... But a very good point, and thanks.

I'm also doing all I can to boost immune system.

fly to the scene of the incident, or be recovered at the scene of the tragedy
 
danhagan said:
Is now a bad time to tell you they have an H1N5 epidemic running in tandem that also started in Wuhan?:confused::confused::confused::eek::eek:
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Really? I wouldn't doubt it. The live animal markets, selling live bats, are back in business too.
 
Did you catch it ?
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Yes, I have. I visited the doctor this morning and got the diagnoses right after lunch.

Oh, seems I have caught springles. It is like shingles, but without the rash.

Only symptom I had was a sore spot on my back about the size of my wife's palm.

Now back to our regular panic....
 
JOhnH said:
My point is that CFR is a meaningless number when the number used to create it (number of diagnosed cases) is nowhere close to reality (the actual number of cases).
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It is what it is. When talking about the fatality rate of various diseases, CFR is what is quoted. Again, the poster I was replying to was clearly talking about CFR, and so was I. Calling it a meaningless number is a side issue. You appeared to be saying that I was confusing CFR with the actual fatality rate as a fraction of the total number of infections (I'll call that the AFR). I was not. In places like Italy where the CFR pushes 10%, something is very different from the current situation in the US - in Italy the population is older and the health system is overwhelmed. Even in NYC the CFR is under 3%. So I was speculating that those projections might be assuming an overwhelmed health system. I was NOT thinking that the figures represented a projected AFR (which is actually unknowable with any precision).
 
Cap'n Jack said:
Again, I was hearing about it, from people who lived there. That means our government was hearing about it (or should have heard about it). I also heard about stuff being shut down. Our government should have known, too. When they shut down Spring Festival, that should have been a real wake-up call. It is the equivalent of cancelling Christmas and Thanksgiving over there. If I knew, then the US government should have known.

Sorry if I'm being repetitive, but despite what their government and WHO were saying, there were plenty of indications this was really bad over there.

Do you think I'm either lying, or that I have special sources of information?
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How does what I posted make you think I think you are lying? I wish you had been running through the streets screaming it when you figured it out. Spring festival is in late January from what I can find. That's when the travel ban was instituted. I guess I knew then too, but in reality the impact here didn't start being really publicized until late Feb. The travel ban was instituted in late January and there was huge pushback, even the CDC was wavering as to whether it was necessary, and those who wanted to politicize it were going berserk to get it overturned. It's apparent now that the travel ban was a good thing.
 
PaulS said:
How does what I posted make you think I think you are lying? I wish you had been running through the streets screaming it when you figured it out. Spring festival is in late January from what I can find. That's when the travel ban was instituted. I guess I knew then too, but in reality the impact here didn't start being really publicized until late Feb. The travel ban was instituted in late January and there was huge pushback, even the CDC was wavering as to whether it was necessary, and those who wanted to politicize it were going berserk to get it overturned. It's apparent now that the travel ban was a good thing.
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Comments like the bolded text make me feel you think I'm being untruthful. If I know things were being shut down, the government did too. There should be no need for anyone to run through the streets

People start heading home the week before the Spring Festival, as it is a mass migration to everyone's home town. This year, they started heading home the weekend starting the 18th, the travel restrictions started on Monday (20th).

Our government did know in early February (and certainly earlier):
These were reported 7 February (presumably the Friday mentioned in the quoted material):
Earlier on Friday, U.S. Vice President Mike Pence told Fox Business Network that the threat to the United States from the virus remained low and praised China for demonstrating “an unprecedented level of transparency” over the outbreak.
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The United States stands ready to spend up to $100 million to assist China and other countries impacted by coronavirus, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo announced on Friday.
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https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...untries-impacted-by-coronavirus-idUSKBN2012FH

Again, we had plenty of warning to prepare more than we did.
 
azure said:
It is what it is. When talking about the fatality rate of various diseases, CFR is what is quoted. Again, the poster I was replying to was clearly talking about CFR, and so was I. Calling it a meaningless number is a side issue. You appeared to be saying that I was confusing CFR with the actual fatality rate as a fraction of the total number of infections (I'll call that the AFR). I was not. In places like Italy where the CFR pushes 10%, something is very different from the current situation in the US - in Italy the population is older and the health system is overwhelmed. Even in NYC the CFR is under 3%. So I was speculating that those projections might be assuming an overwhelmed health system. I was NOT thinking that the figures represented a projected AFR (which is actually unknowable with any precision).
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Ok, I did misunderstand your reference to CFR and assumed you meant actual fatality rate. But when you throw around acronyms without clarification it is an easy mistake to make based on context. But I stand by my position. CFR (Confirmed Fatality Rate) may be a valid statistic for some/most diseases. With most fatal diseases, you get sick; you get a diagnosis; you live or die. Then you can calculate CFR. But with COVID19, we don't even try to make the diagnosis until you are just about ready to die. CFR is meaningless in this instance. Without comprehensive testing, almost all statistics are meaningless except for the actual number of deaths.
 
Cap'n Jack said:
Comments like the bolded text make me feel you think I'm being untruthful. If I know things were being shut down, the government did too. There should be no need for anyone to run through the streets

People start heading home the week before the Spring Festival, as it is a mass migration to everyone's home town. This year, they started heading home the weekend starting the 18th, the travel restrictions started on Monday (20th).

Our government did know in early February (and certainly earlier):
These were reported 7 February (presumably the Friday mentioned in the quoted material):



https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...untries-impacted-by-coronavirus-idUSKBN2012FH

Again, we had plenty of warning to prepare more than we did.
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Jack, I don't think you are being untruthful, not at all. I do remember seeing press reports of this virus just after Thanksgiving. Then sporadic reports throughout December with assurances, mostly from China, that everything was fine. It was isolated, animal to human, didn't spread through the community. This continued through January, until basically China started to come clean about what was going on. When that happened, around the end of January, the travel ban was implemented. Many in government thought it was an over reaction. So from where I sit, people knew, but didn't know the extent of the danger until in reality the end of February. I agree the government knew, because of the ban. But not all were convinced of how contagious this virus is and scope of what would happen. I believe this is because China, for only reasons the communist leadership in China can explain, although I can guess, China chose to be untruthful, not forthcoming, clueless, whatever the reason, China hid how bad this was. I think our federal government has reacted well. I haven't liked everything they've done, but now I think it was necessary. Unfortunately, I still think China is either lying about or unable to admit it has no idea of its infection rate and deaths.

Whether we had enough time to prepare, that's an age old question. This is a new virus and I think we went from zero to where we are now pretty quickly, but like anything it probably could have been done better. Hindsight is a great thing.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/new...istleblower-punished-inappropriately-12557420
 
Is this one of those sicknesses, like the flu, that we need to get at least once to become resistant to it?
 
Sac Arrow said:
Is this one of those sicknesses, like the flu, that we need to get at least once to become resistant to it?
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I'm not a doctor, but I did stay at a Holiday Express once. I do believe you are immune to this version of the virus if you make it through. The problem, like the flu is that it can mutate, I think.
 
PaulS said:
Jack, I don't think you are being untruthful, not at all. I do remember seeing press reports of this virus just after Thanksgiving. Then sporadic reports throughout December with assurances, mostly from China, that everything was fine. It was isolated, animal to human, didn't spread through the community. This continued through January, until basically China started to come clean about what was going on. When that happened, around the end of January, the travel ban was implemented. Many in government thought it was an over reaction. So from where I sit, people knew, but didn't know the extent of the danger until in reality the end of February. I agree the government knew, because of the ban. But not all were convinced of how contagious this virus is and scope of what would happen. I believe this is because China, for only reasons the communist leadership in China can explain, although I can guess, China chose to be untruthful, not forthcoming, clueless, whatever the reason, China hid how bad this was. I think our federal government has reacted well. I haven't liked everything they've done, but now I think it was necessary. Unfortunately, I still think China is either lying about or unable to admit it has no idea of its infection rate and deaths.

Whether we had enough time to prepare, that's an age old question. This is a new virus and I think we went from zero to where we are now pretty quickly, but like anything it probably could have been done better. Hindsight is a great thing.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/new...istleblower-punished-inappropriately-12557420
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Paul- thanks for the clarification.

I'd argue that the Chinese government was also taken aback by this virus, too, and I agree they could have done things differently. They really did start from zero. Some of the confusion here comes from comments from our leaders that I quoted in my earlier post. As for the travel ban, I assume you are talking about ours? My colleagues over there were considering themselves lucky they were in their home, as some of their friends had left on the 18th January and were stuck wherever they ended up when the Chinese travel ban took effect on 20 Jan (Monday).
 
Times are going to get tougher for a lot of us, but we will pull through. If there is one good thing that might come from all this, it is the awareness that we need to make all our own drugs, and other medical supplies and not be dependent on China or any other foreign country. We need to bring manufacturing back to the USA. This is one helluva wake up call, IMO.

I worked as a paramedic and fireman in my younger days. No one can anticipate all disasters, but we will be better prepared for the future.

I hope all of you and your family members stay safe and well.
 
Talking with my doctor yesterday. She is wondering if a lot of medical care folks are claiming more cases than they are really receiving. She seems to think that the more cases they claim, the more federal money they will get. So everyone that has any minor symptom gets the COVID19 diagnoses.

Again, my doctors thoughts, no actual facts proving this is going on.
 
Doug Reid said:
If there is one good thing that might come from all this, it is the awareness that we need to make all our own drugs, and other medical supplies and not be dependent on China or any other foreign country. We need to bring manufacturing back to the USA.
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Banning imports or getting to an economy where people here are willing to take jobs for $2/hr is the only way that's going to happen IMO. Otherwise we're going to buy the cheaper foreign stuff every time. People have extremely short memories.
 
Juliet Hotel said:
Banning imports or getting to an economy where people here are willing to take jobs for $2/hr is the only way that's going to happen IMO. Otherwise we're going to buy the cheaper foreign stuff every time. People have extremely short memories.
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Meh....I'm betting on better incentives to build here....maybe tax free zones for commerce critical items.
 
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Sac Arrow said:
Is this one of those sicknesses, like the flu, that we need to get at least once to become resistant to it?
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We don't know at this stage. We do know that the genome for SARS-COV-2 has not changed much since its initial outbreak. This suggests that the genome is stable. (That's good for vaccine development and longer term immunity.) What we don't know is how long an individual will maintain a high titer of antibodies against this particular virus. For some diseases, like measles or smallpox, it is a lifetime. For coronaviruses, some strains of which cause the common cold, immunity only lasts a short time, maybe 1-2 years. (This is one reason you con't become totally immune from catching colds.) For SARS-COV-2, we just don't know yet. The best guess is that those who contract it will be completely immune for some time. Even at lower antibody titers, future infection, if possible, is likely to be milder and briefer than the first exposure. But we don't know anything for certain yet.
 
JOhnH said:
CFR (Confirmed Fatality Rate) may be a valid statistic for some/most diseases. With most fatal diseases, you get sick; you get a diagnosis; you live or die. Then you can calculate CFR. But with COVID19, we don't even try to make the diagnosis until you are just about ready to die.
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This is not quite accurate. Many COVID-19 patients are diagnosed before they are critically ill. Indeed about 80-85% of diagnosed patients are sent home to recover. A confirmed case is someone who has sufficient symptoms to seek, and ultimately have confirmed, a diagnosis. The CFR (case fatality rate) is calculated using this population as a basis. It is a remarkably consistent population of individuals. If you make it to the symptoms/diagnosis stage, you are in a known statistical bin with defined hospitalization and fatality rates. The CFR is quite sufficient, and highly useful, for planning for hospitalization and death rates, etc. Those that don't present with symptoms, or have mild symptoms, don't need treatment, and aren't going to die. The CFR is the standard for planning for virtually all diseases, in part because it is a readily measurable and reproducible statistic. For new diseases, it is likely to be the only useful statistic.

The IFR (infection fatality rate) is more useful to understanding the epidemiology of spread and achievement of herd immunity. Asymptomatic individuals can spread disease, not just the diagnosed cases. This is one important reason why we need widespread testing, as it affects or modeling of the current epidemic, and whether or not future epidemics are possible based on transmissibility in the general population. But we do have three pretty good studies of closed populations that had nearly complete testing: the Diamond Princess cruise ship passengers, the residents of Vo, Italy, and another small village in Iceland. In each of these studies (about 3000+ individuals each across a wide range of age groups), about 50% of infected individuals were asymptomatic. That is why the estimates of the CFR is about double the IFR, currently.

Think of it this way. If you somehow magically knew you were infected, you are in the IFR statistical bin, with a 1% fatality probability (averaged over all ages). You may or may not exhibit symptoms if you are in this bin. If you have enough symptoms to seek diagnosis, you just graduated to the CFR bin, with a 2% fatality probability (averaged over all ages.) It's just a statistical bin. Both bins are useful to scientists and planners. It's not an either/or or which is "better." Each bin has different significance, measurability, and use. You don't need to have perfect information to make good decisions. In most cases, you can NEVER get perfect information. You need to know the limitations of, and how to use, the good information that you have.
 
chemgeek said:
This is not quite accurate. Many COVID-19 patients are diagnosed before they are critically ill. Indeed about 80-85% of diagnosed patients are sent home to recover. A confirmed case is someone who has sufficient symptoms to seek, and ultimately have confirmed, a diagnosis. The CFR (case fatality rate) is calculated using this population as a basis. It is a remarkably consistent population of individuals. If you make it to the symptoms/diagnosis stage, you are in a known statistical bin with defined hospitalization and fatality rates. The CFR is quite sufficient, and highly useful, for planning for hospitalization and death rates, etc. Those that don't present with symptoms, or have mild symptoms, don't need treatment, and aren't going to die. The CFR is the standard for planning for virtually all diseases, in part because it is a readily measurable and reproducible statistic. For new diseases, it is likely to be the only useful statistic.

The IFR (infection fatality rate) is more useful to understanding the epidemiology of spread and achievement of herd immunity. Asymptomatic individuals can spread disease, not just the diagnosed cases. This is one important reason why we need widespread testing, as it affects or modeling of the current epidemic, and whether or not future epidemics are possible based on transmissibility in the general population. But we do have three pretty good studies of closed populations that had nearly complete testing: the Diamond Princess cruise ship passengers, the residents of Vo, Italy, and another small village in Iceland. In each of these studies (about 3000+ individuals each across a wide range of age groups), about 50% of infected individuals were asymptomatic. That is why the estimates of the CFR is about double the IFR, currently.

Think of it this way. If you somehow magically knew you were infected, you are in the IFR statistical bin, with a 1% fatality probability (averaged over all ages). You may or may not exhibit symptoms if you are in this bin. If you have enough symptoms to seek diagnosis, you just graduated to the CFR bin, with a 2% fatality probability (averaged over all ages.) It's just a statistical bin. Both bins are useful to scientists and planners. It's not an either/or or which is "better." Each bin has different significance, measurability, and use. You don't need to have perfect information to make good decisions. In most cases, you can NEVER get perfect information. You need to know the limitations of, and how to use, the good information that you have.
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Ok, you obviously know more about this than I do, and you took the time to explain it.
Thank you.
 
PaulS said:
Really? I wouldn't doubt it. The live animal markets, selling live bats, are back in business too.
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Heard that, but was hoping it wasn't true ... was naive before thinking the chinese were eating flying rats, etc. because they didn't have enough beef ...

Half Fast said:
You might also consider that through Dec and Jan everyone in DC was consumed with impeachment and not paying attention to much else.
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They had to pause for this crisis ... but who knows, this will probably be an impeachable event as well:confused::confused::confused:
 
danhagan said:
because they didn't have enough beef
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We need to start exporting hot dogs to China, stat! Get these people some real food!

We're experiencing a hot dog shortage here, we need to get that production ramped up again.
 
Doug Reid said:
Times are going to get tougher for a lot of us, but we will pull through. If there is one good thing that might come from all this, it is the awareness that we need to make all our own drugs, and other medical supplies and not be dependent on China or any other foreign country. We need to bring manufacturing back to the USA. This is one helluva wake up call, IMO.

I worked as a paramedic and fireman in my younger days. No one can anticipate all disasters, but we will be better prepared for the future.

I hope all of you and your family members stay safe and well.
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I agree with this sentiment. The president was trying to, in part, bring production back. I believe (my opinion) he found that the issue is more complex than it may seem on the outside. For example, assembly was moved to Vietnam for some things to bypass the tariffs. I think it is going to take a mix of things to accomplish that goal, including a desire for us, in general, to buy American.
 
Doug Reid said:
Times are going to get tougher for a lot of us, but we will pull through. If there is one good thing that might come from all this, it is the awareness that we need to make all our own drugs, and other medical supplies and not be dependent on China or any other foreign country. We need to bring manufacturing back to the USA. This is one helluva wake up call, IMO.

I worked as a paramedic and fireman in my younger days. No one can anticipate all disasters, but we will be better prepared for the future.
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My fear is twofold:

- As soon as this is over, we'll forget the lessons we should have learned and go right back to buying the least expensive product possible, which often means China.

- I also believe we'll prepare to deal with this same scenario again. Unfortunately, it'll be different next time.
 
kyleb said:
My fear is twofold:

- As soon as this is over, we'll forget the lessons we should have learned and go right back to buying the least expensive product possible, which often means China.

- I also believe we'll prepare to deal with this same scenario again. Unfortunately, it'll be different next time.
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That's why my hot dog plan is perfect. They keep shipping affordable electronics and we load the ships up with tube meats and send them back. Win-win.
 
In the "we didn't have a chance" category, in the few months from when this virus was identified as causing illness until travel from China was [partially] banned, 750,000 people entered the US coming from China (tourists from both sides, business people, etc.) I had no idea the number was that large. That's why NYC is screwed.
 
Kenny Phillips said:
In the "we didn't have a chance" category, in the few months from when this virus was identified as causing illness until travel from China was [partially] banned, 750,000 people entered the US coming from China (tourists from both sides, business people, etc.) I had no idea the number was that large. That's why NYC is screwed.
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That's also why the number of previously infected people who never knew they had it may be much much higher than we think.
 
Half Fast said:
That's also why the number of previously infected people who never knew they had it may be much much higher than we think.
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Whilst that will limit the total number of cases in that area (one would hope) we've not seen it level off yet.
 
The local pulmonology groups have decided for the history of 1 week-10 days of symptoms, that the sudden decompensation, that it may be due to cytokine storm. WIth nothing to lose they are heaping on the steroids which does appear to have a good effect. Of course nobody wants to do this a moment before necessary as we don't want the infection to "re-bloom".
 
bbchien said:
The local pulmonology groups have decided for the history of 1 week-10 days of symptoms, that the sudden decompensation, that it may be due to cytokine storm. WIth nothing to lose they are heaping on the steroids which does appear to have a good effect. Of course nobody wants to do this a moment before necessary as we don't want the infection to "re-bloom".
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Massive prednisone, I presume?

Interesting. Makes me wonder if the immunosuppressant I'm taking might actually be a good thing.
 
We're 82 and 80. My wife is a heart patient. We DON'T want to catch this. Luckily we live on an airpark in rural AZ, so we're isolated.

Dimwits here are still doing buggy rides, happy hour, fly-outs for breakfast etc.
My fear is that they won't go home for the Summer. (We're full time residents)
 
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