Did you catch it ?

Tom-D

Tom-D

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Tom-D
SO,,,, we did the 14 day quarantine,, How do we know we didn't re-infect today?
 
Tom-D said:
SO,,,, we did the 14 day quarantine,, How do we know we didn't re-infect today?
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You don't. If you want to be sure, then go back into quarantine until the all-clear is sounded.

I'm going to the store to pick up a couple of steaks and a bottle of Scotch.
 
You have to take it a day at a time.The fourteen days says you don’t have it now ,but your still susceptible to catching until the all clear is sounded.
 
once the virus is there it is always there, you may catch it anytime.
 
JOhnH said:
Scotch
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Highly recommend this documentary, it's mostly about Jim McEwan


Oddly, there was no mention of Lagavulin, my personal favorite, even though there are references to Laphroaig and other Islay scotches
 
Tom-D said:
once the virus is there it is always there, you may catch it anytime.
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Yup, and they don't really know that much about it. Hopefully a suitable treatment will be found and a vaccine developed. Then hopefully third world crapholes where this originated from will figure out how to feed their population so they are not eating unsuitable things.
 
*In theory, if the whole world locked inside a room for 2 weeks we could potentially rid ourselves of it.. granted, with this staying viable for up to 9 days you could still potentially catch it

Ultimately, it's part of our lives now
 
Lagavulin is in a class all by itself. Amazing stuff.
 
Tom-D said:
once the virus is there it is always there, you may catch it anytime.
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Depends on what you mean by "there." My understanding is that viruses outside the body have a limited lifetime.
 
It’s 14 days after any known exposure.

The country was sooo unprepared.....we cannot yet even test yet for who has the antibody. And there is data to suggest that for every positive, there are about 20 more positives who never presented to testing or got sick enough to come to attention. The authorities are looking in the barn for the cows that have left. See Battacharya MD, WSJ 03/26/2020, Stanford University. This is behaving exactly like the Spanish Flu, 1918.

Wash hands, and if you interested check out nat.geo, spanish flu, for the re-peaks that the various cities experienced after “short social distancing”.
 
We need to roll out antibody testing to find out who has been infected, and presumably, immune. Those folks don't need to isolate anymore. The rest (who have not yet been exposed) must await a vaccine, or hope that transmission becomes rarer, and effective therapeutics become available to lower the case fatality rate if you do get it. Some of us may have already had the darn thing, but don't know if we did not not. Some of us may also have partial immunity by dumb luck.

At this point, we are as a country just trying to figure out how to get past the first wave, which according to the public data I'm looking at and analyzing, will almost certainly result in over a million confirmed cases and over 100,000 fatalities. (Wow.) At some point, we need our leadership team to map out the stages to a return to more normal life, and that will require meeting some benchmarks for hospital capacity, antibody testing, therapeutics, and vaccine deployment. The sooner we get going to meeting those challenges (along with tentative timelines or deadlines) the sooner we can recover from this fustercluck of a mess.
 
John Prine is infected. And on a ventilator.
I've been isolating this month, and will go another.
 
chemgeek said:
At this point, we are as a country just trying to figure out how to get past the first wave, which according to the public data I'm looking at and analyzing, will almost certainly result in over a million confirmed cases and over 100,000 fatalities. (Wow.) At some point, we need our leadership team to map out the stages to a return to more normal life, and that will require meeting some benchmarks for hospital capacity, antibody testing, therapeutics, and vaccine deployment. The sooner we get going to meeting those challenges (along with tentative timelines or deadlines) the sooner we can recover from this fustercluck of a mess.
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100,000 deaths out of 1 million cases is a 10% CFR... sounds like that estimate assumes that the health system gets overwhelmed to the point where the critically ill can't get adequate care. That is really a nightmare scenario. :(

Other than that, I agree with everything you say, though.
 
bbchien said:
The country was sooo unprepared...
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Has anyone else been giving this thought? WHY were we unprepared?

I'm wondering if there are various root causes besides the general belief that everything's good...

1. I remember when a warehouse I used to work for switched to "just in time" policies. I generally appreciate that there are good "cash flow" reasons for this, but I wonder if it also has to do with inventory and taxes...
2. Do property taxes and hospital capacity have any correlation?
3. Have we gotten to the point where inventory tax keeps us from stockpiling essential supplies?

Right off hand, it seems to me that various government policies and tax ideas actually contribute significantly to this situation and need to be evaluated as part of the solution.
 
RyanShort1 said:
Has anyone else been giving this thought? WHY were we unprepared?

I'm wondering if there are various root causes besides the general belief that everything's good...

1. I remember when a warehouse I used to work for switched to "just in time" policies. I generally appreciate that there are good "cash flow" reasons for this, but I wonder if it also has to do with inventory and taxes...
2. Do property taxes and hospital capacity have any correlation?
3. Have we gotten to the point where inventory tax keeps us from stockpiling essential supplies?

Right off hand, it seems to me that various government policies and tax ideas actually contribute significantly to this situation and need to be evaluated as part of the solution.
Click to expand...

The government shouldn't be in charge of this, that's part of the problem. The hospitals should take some responsibility and keep inventory levels up on stuff like this. That said, I've read before the swine flu of 2009 there were something like 100 million masks in reserve somewhere. These got used up during that episode and were never restocked.
 
No, I did not catch it, I think.

But, as a 64 year old with mild asthma/copd, I did catch a cold.. it was in my chest and gave me a non-productive (dry) cough. No fever. But, I called my md. They routed me to the nearest affiliated Express clinic that was equipped.

Procedure:

Call this # when you arrive.
They will meet you and bring you in, or treat you at your vehicle.
The clinic is at our local hospital (Drs complex attached).
I called. They said "there is a black man by the door, drive there and wait."
I did so but the only "black man" was by the entrance to the hospital ER.

Pretty soon a gal in a tyvek suit shows up and tells me to follow her in my vehicle. Then told me to park where I was when I called them. Hah!

So then, she takes me in the back door of the Drs annex. And starts intake. She then gets a radio call that they aren't treating any but regular patients (to that clinic). She puts me in an exam room and says wait until they get it sorted.

She comes back, continues intake. I ask about the question of treatment to outside patients, she says, "you're here, you were sent, we're treating you." Great.

PA comes in, suited up. Rechecks vitals, asks about symptoms. Decides on a shot of steroids (rather than a 5-7 day course of pills) that will reduce any lung inflammation without overly compensating my immune system. In case. Go home, stay off work rest of week, they will call to check on me.

I cancelled my scheduled flights this week. (Arggggh!) To keep from infecting instructor, plane, etc.

I, God willing, return to work next week, and resume flying instruction later in the week if symptom free.

I was NOT tested for COVID 19, as it takes 5 days to get results anyway, and if I improve, I didn't have it.

I am "on the cusp" I'm under 65, I don't have a truly compromising medical condition, not advanced asthma or copd.

Frustrating. But. I do seem to be improving even from yesterday...

Good times!

fly to the scene of the incident, or be recovered at the scene of the tragedy
 
PaulS said:
The government shouldn't be in charge of this, that's part of the problem. The hospitals should take some responsibility and keep inventory levels up on stuff like this. That said, I've read before the swine flu of 2009 there were something like 100 million masks in reserve somewhere. These got used up during that episode and were never restocked.
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Yeah, but there are finances involved, too. I know we were getting taxed for everything that sat on our shelves and they decided that even though it was cheaper to order in bulk, we needed to pay higher prices for less stock in order to keep that down.
 
azure said:
100,000 deaths out of 1 million cases is a 10% CFR... sounds like that estimate assumes that the health system gets overwhelmed to the point where the critically ill can't get adequate care. That is really a nightmare scenario. :(

Other than that, I agree with everything you say, though.
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Azure, you know better than to confuse "confirmed" cases with "total" cases. In order to be tested and confirmed, you either have to be admitted to a hospital about to die anyway, or on an NBA team or be a famous Hollywood celebrity.
Another way to look at it is 100,000 deaths in the US (population ~330,000,000), which gives a death rate of .03%
A better way is to divide deaths by total infections. The problem is we don't know how many total cases there are.
 
Tom-D said:
How can anyone see a brand new virus, and tell what we expect.

This is a reactive situation, all the experts can do is react.
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True. Yes we weren't as prepared as we could have been, but we were better prepared than anyone else according to a 2019 study.

https://www.ghsindex.org/

Hindsight is perfect. With the information we had prior to this outbreak, we were not perfectly prepared but we were reasonably well prepared. Compromise is always necessary, and preparing for pandemics can't be a country's only focus. Sometimes these things happen and we just have to deal with them as best we can.
 
Tom-D said:
How can anyone see a brand new virus, and tell what we expect.

This is a reactive situation, all the experts can do is react.
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There are several ways to tell what to expect, but only to a degree. You are correct that we have to be somewhat reactive, but there were ways we could have been proactive, as well.

1) We did get warning from China. People will say that "the Chinese were lying to us", but we still had some very strong indications that all wasn't well there. I was in Hong Kong when it started in China, and my WeChat feed had mention of some sort of virus a couple of days after I left, in late December. I'm sure I know our intelligence agencies had better data than I. When the Chinese started shutting everything down, in early January, that was a very strong warning this wasn't like the viruses in the past, and we should have been taking notice. No matter what they were saying outside, we knew what was happening inside their country. I knew things were shutting down because of our dealers and customers. As I'm no one particularly special, there's lots of people who work with the Chinese, that means our government should have known, too.

2) We've had SARS, MERS, Ebola, and a couple of influenzas prior to this. These gave us information about what to do in case of an infectious disease starts spreading. Although these affected the USA minimally, we could have learned the lessons from those epidemics.Some places, such as Singapore, apparently took those lessons to heart and are comparatively well off now.

You are correct that we can't necessarily react entirely appropriately. The next unusual virus, we may well over-react and shut everything down until we find out it isn't too bad, after all. That may well be the preferred course of action until it seems we have too many "false alarms".
 
Half Fast said:
True. Yes we weren't as prepared as we could have been, but we were better prepared than anyone else according to a 2019 study.

https://www.ghsindex.org/

Hindsight is perfect. With the information we had prior to this outbreak, we were not perfectly prepared but we were reasonably well prepared. Compromise is always necessary, and preparing for pandemics can't be a country's only focus. Sometimes these things happen and we just have to deal with them as best we can.
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You have a different, but valid take on this with your reference. We had the tools, but we were late putting them to use.
 
JOhnH said:
A better way is to divide deaths by total infections.
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Since the outcome of those with current active infections is unknown, a better indicator is to divide deaths by total recovered. That number is around 16% for latest numbers I could find. But as has been said, its unknown how many were infected and recovered without testing. Perhaps if antibody testing becomes widespread, we may end up with a more accurate picture of the actual fatality rate but until then, its anybody's guess.
 
Cap'n Jack said:
There are several ways to tell what to expect, but only to a degree. You are correct that we have to be somewhat reactive, but there were ways we could have been proactive, as well.

1) We did get warning from China. People will say that "the Chinese were lying to us", but we still had some very strong indications that all wasn't well there. I was in Hong Kong when it started in China, and my WeChat feed had mention of some sort of virus a couple of days after I left, in late December. I'm sure I know our intelligence agencies had better data than I. When the Chinese started shutting everything down, in early January, that was a very strong warning this wasn't like the viruses in the past, and we should have been taking notice. No matter what they were saying outside, we knew what was happening inside their country. I knew things were shutting down because of our dealers and customers. As I'm no one particularly special, there's lots of people who work with the Chinese, that means our government should have known, too.

2) We've had SARS, MERS, Ebola, and a couple of influenzas prior to this. These gave us information about what to do in case of an infectious disease starts spreading. Although these affected the USA minimally, we could have learned the lessons from those epidemics.Some places, such as Singapore, apparently took those lessons to heart and are comparatively well off now.

You are correct that we can't necessarily react entirely appropriately. The next unusual virus, we may well over-react and shut everything down until we find out it isn't too bad, after all. That may well be the preferred course of action until it seems we have too many "false alarms".
Click to expand...

It's all muddied up, but the initial alarm came from a doctor, who was disciplined by the Chinese government for sounding the alarm. This doctor disappeared for a while, then reappeared, but unfortunately succumb to the virus. I believe this doctor spoke up near the end of December. Then there was a lot of muddled information. Apparent misstatements about the severity and many claims that the virus did not pass amongst humans, then only passed during close contact. The WHO urged calm and said it was not an issue and that China was containing it. They weren't.

Then at the end of January the executive branch of the US made an executive decision and shut down travel from the affected areas. In hindsight, travel from all of China should have been shut down. The WHO said it was unnecessary and the decision was panned as xenophobic and racist at the time, the House went so far as to consider a bill limiting the executive branch's ability to ban travel.

Had China been more forth coming with what was going on, this may have been contained. But that unfortunately is water under the bridge at this point. When all this settles down, the world needs to take a hard look at what happened and China, more specifically, the Chinese communist government, should be held to task as to why this happened the way it did. The issue of whether this virus escaped or worse from a lab hasn't been fully explored either. It's a huge CF.
 
RyanShort1 said:
Has anyone else been giving this thought? WHY were we unprepared?
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I'm in the health field. CDC wanted FULL control for counts, but their test FAILED the first week of March and they're scrambling to fix it. They SHOULD have offered to help the Chinese or Italians a month ago offering our test, and would've realized then the test wasn't working ....

PaulS said:
The hospitals should take some responsibility and keep inventory levels up on stuff like this.
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Am eating lunch and spewed a little;) Hospital administrators want to move out and up to the next hiring paying position. I laugh at the new ones at the surgical center behind me as they always call me over to "introduce" themselves. I now tell them the turn over is at least one per year and the past 10 have cut every corner and expense trying to look good on paper to move on and they'll find nothing left "on the bone" to trim. Hospitals don't make revenue "stock piling" supplies ...

CharlieD3 said:
... Decides on a shot of steroids (rather than a 5-7 day course of pills) that will reduce any lung inflammation without overly compensating my immune system.
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If you have a pulmonologist, please check with them as steroids are great for correcting normal shortness of breath and lung disorder episodes ... ER friend of mine in Louisiana told me that patients that received steroid treatment with COVID 19 accelerated their "respiratory storm" (he said the PCPs in the area were being updated) ... my son has severe lung problems, and he passed this on to me to be VERY careful and make sure everyone is on the same page if exposure occurs ...
 
JOhnH said:
Azure, you know better than to confuse "confirmed" cases with "total" cases. In order to be tested and confirmed, you either have to be admitted to a hospital about to die anyway, or on an NBA team or be a famous Hollywood celebrity.
Another way to look at it is 100,000 deaths in the US (population ~330,000,000), which gives a death rate of .03%
A better way is to divide deaths by total infections. The problem is we don't know how many total cases there are.
Click to expand...
Not sure what your point is. @chemgeek's wording was "over a million confirmed cases" (emphasis mine). 100,000 fatalities out of 1 million confirmed cases is a 10% CFR, by definition. No confusion there. (Could be smaller than 10% since he said over a million, but I assume less than 2 million, so still > 5%.)

My point is that the CFR estimates under conditions where adequate care is available are less than 5% - usually in the 2 to 3% range.
 
PaulS said:
... When all this settles down, the world needs to take a hard look at what happened and China, more specifically, the Chinese communist government, should be held to task as to why this happened the way it did. The issue of whether this virus escaped or worse from a lab hasn't been fully explored either. It's a huge CF.
Click to expand...

Is now a bad time to tell you they have an H1N5 epidemic running in tandem that also started in Wuhan?:confused::confused::confused::eek::eek:
 
azure said:
Not sure what your point is. @chemgeek's wording was "over a million confirmed cases" (emphasis mine). 100,000 fatalities out of 1 million confirmed cases is a 10% CFR, by definition. No confusion there. (Could be smaller than 10% since he said over a million, but I assume less than 2 million, so still > 5%.)

My point is that the CFR estimates under conditions where adequate care is available are less than 5% - usually in the 2 to 3% range.
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My point is that CFR is a meaningless number when the number used to create it (number of diagnosed cases) is nowhere close to reality (the actual number of cases).
 
PaulS said:
It's all muddied up, but the initial alarm came from a doctor, who was disciplined by the Chinese government for sounding the alarm. This doctor disappeared for a while, then reappeared, but unfortunately succumb to the virus. I believe this doctor spoke up near the end of December. Then there was a lot of muddled information. Apparent misstatements about the severity and many claims that the virus did not pass amongst humans, then only passed during close contact. The WHO urged calm and said it was not an issue and that China was containing it. They weren't.

Then at the end of January the executive branch of the US made an executive decision and shut down travel from the affected areas. In hindsight, travel from all of China should have been shut down. The WHO said it was unnecessary and the decision was panned as xenophobic and racist at the time, the House went so far as to consider a bill limiting the executive branch's ability to ban travel.

Had China been more forth coming with what was going on, this may have been contained. But that unfortunately is water under the bridge at this point. When all this settles down, the world needs to take a hard look at what happened and China, more specifically, the Chinese communist government, should be held to task as to why this happened the way it did. The issue of whether this virus escaped or worse from a lab hasn't been fully explored either. It's a huge CF.
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Again, I was hearing about it, from people who lived there. That means our government was hearing about it (or should have heard about it). I also heard about stuff being shut down. Our government should have known, too. When they shut down Spring Festival, that should have been a real wake-up call. It is the equivalent of cancelling Christmas and Thanksgiving over there. If I knew, then the US government should have known.

Sorry if I'm being repetitive, but despite what their government and WHO were saying, there were plenty of indications this was really bad over there.

Do you think I'm either lying, or that I have special sources of information?
 
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