Corona Virus Numbers???

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It think what you are finding is that the numbers are changing rapidly, especially as more and more testing is being done.
But I've accessed the previous CDC web pages via the Wayback Machine (https://archive.org/web/), and the 2:1 or 3:1 ratio between CDC reporting and WHO reporting is pretty consistent.

I'm still looking for *a* site that will give the daily totals running back to the start of the epidemic. Everthing just gives the numbers for the day the site is accessed (at best, plus yesterday's results).

Ron Wanttaja
 
With the addition of Italy's and France's daily numbers today, we have added almost 1,000 new deaths since 7:00 AM CDT. I am still suspect of China's numbers as well, I would not be surprised if they are now covering up to save face.

upload_2020-3-19_13-52-4.png
 
However, they've changed the reporting methodology in the past month, and in any case, their numbers don't match with that of the CDC. On the 18th of March, WHO's situation report says that the USA has 3,536 cases and 58 deaths. This is significantly lower than the CDC is reporting...almost a third of the CDC numbers.

Ron Wanttaja

The WHO numbers in there are 3 days behind the directly reported numbers.
 
475 deaths in Italy today, more tomorrow, more the next day. That is a rate of 175,000 per year without any increase.

Consider that they’re also in full triage mode.

Some percentage are simply being kept comfortable to die now without significant treatment or lifesaving measures.

It will skew their death rate upward.
 
And there is 10,000 global deaths reported. 7,000 of which are in the last 14 days.

upload_2020-3-19_16-11-52.png
 
I'm still looking for *a* site that will give the daily totals running back to the start of the epidemic. Everthing just gives the numbers for the day the site is accessed (at best, plus yesterday's results).

Maybe not all the raw data your looking for, but pretty good: https://graphics.reuters.com/CHINA-HEALTH-MAP/0100B59S39E/index.html

Scroll down and toggle to daily data. Includes graphs of selected countries. S Korea's case rate has turned into an S curve. Everywhere else still hockey sticks.
 
Did the 285,000 Americans who were hospitalized for the swine flu just a few years ago put a strain on our nation’s hospital system?

Yes; but not as large a strain.
The two key points; since this is really a math problem.
1. Mean hospital stay was 6 days. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3841489/
2. Infectious rate: R0 around 1.4: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19545404/

I cannot find such solid data on COVID-19; however the prelim data I have found which I cannot verify the research veracity:
1. Hospital stays average 20 days; with max at 37.
2. Infectious rate: R0 around 2.4

What this effectively means; each case uses significantly more resources; while at the same is significantly more infectious producing a much faster and larger spike.

Last item to consider. H1N1 is a seasonal virus. It broke out during the end of its season period. As such, we also had more time to prepare for the second round. COVID-19; we do not know if it will be seasonal, and broke out during what would be the peak time, if seasonal.

Tim
 
M
Yes; but not as large a strain.
The two key points; since this is really a math problem.
1. Mean hospital stay was 6 days. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3841489/
2. Infectious rate: R0 around 1.4: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19545404/

I cannot find such solid data on COVID-19; however the prelim data I have found which I cannot verify the research veracity:
1. Hospital stays average 20 days; with max at 37.
2. Infectious rate: R0 around 2.4

What this effectively means; each case uses significantly more resources; while at the same is significantly more infectious producing a much faster and larger spike.

Last item to consider. H1N1 is a seasonal virus. It broke out during the end of its season period. As such, we also had more time to prepare for the second round. COVID-19; we do not know if it will be seasonal, and broke out during what would be the peak time, if seasonal.

Tim

My wife is a floor nurse. She cares for flu patients every flu season. Often lots of flu patients. In 25 years of marriage/child raising, none of us have ever had the flu, not once. Who knows maybe this year.
Still not scared.
 
Important follow-up info on hydroxychloroquine studies

https://www.mikehuckabee.com/latest-news?id=819CFE39-EBB8-4267-9CA3-752AA22434F6&s=3N5U

"Since pharmaceutical attorney Gregory Rigano appeared on FOX NEWS, others (real MDs) have come forward with more information on recent studies of hydrochloroquine, a newer version of the commonly used antimalarial drug chloroquine, and also remdesivir, which was created to fight the ebola virus. The French study referenced by Rigano is real, and there’s one out of Australia and another out of China.
...
According to Tennessee Republican Rep. Mark Green, a former Army flight surgeon who appeared with Shannon Bream on FOX NEWS Thursday night, the French study touted by Rigano earlier this week showed that when mixed in a “cocktail” with the antibiotic azithromycin (the familiar “Z-pack” often given to patients who have bronchitis and/or bacterial pneumonia), hydroxychloroquine can completely clear COVID-19 --- it happened in all patients who were in the study --- in as little as three days. The sample size in the study he referenced was small, Green said, “so it’s kind of hard to extrapolate...to the whole population, but it’s very promising. One hundred percent of the virus gone in six days.”"
 
Important follow-up info on hydroxychloroquine studies

https://www.mikehuckabee.com/latest-news?id=819CFE39-EBB8-4267-9CA3-752AA22434F6&s=3N5U

"Since pharmaceutical attorney Gregory Rigano appeared on FOX NEWS, others (real MDs) have come forward with more information on recent studies of hydrochloroquine, a newer version of the commonly used antimalarial drug chloroquine, and also remdesivir, which was created to fight the ebola virus. The French study referenced by Rigano is real, and there’s one out of Australia and another out of China.
...
According to Tennessee Republican Rep. Mark Green, a former Army flight surgeon who appeared with Shannon Bream on FOX NEWS Thursday night, the French study touted by Rigano earlier this week showed that when mixed in a “cocktail” with the antibiotic azithromycin (the familiar “Z-pack” often given to patients who have bronchitis and/or bacterial pneumonia), hydroxychloroquine can completely clear COVID-19 --- it happened in all patients who were in the study --- in as little as three days. The sample size in the study he referenced was small, Green said, “so it’s kind of hard to extrapolate...to the whole population, but it’s very promising. One hundred percent of the virus gone in six days.”"

Here's that French study:
https://www.mediterranee-infection....-and-azithromycin-as-a-treatment-of-covid-19/
 
Latest update after Italy's new numbers were released.

upload_2020-3-20_12-25-38.png
 
Why so low numbers in India? Would think it would spread like wildfire there.
 
Maybe not all the raw data your looking for, but pretty good: https://graphics.reuters.com/CHINA-HEALTH-MAP/0100B59S39E/index.html

Scroll down and toggle to daily data. Includes graphs of selected countries. S Korea's case rate has turned into an S curve. Everywhere else still hockey sticks.

The Johns Hopkins site has complete datasets for all reporting entities you can download. It is updated daily. I'm using it to plot data for the US and NY state for my local community. Epidemics follow a logistic (S) curve function. China and Korea are reaching the top of the curve. The US is currently in the exponential growth phase with a doubling time if confirmed cases of 2.5 days. Social distancing is necessary to shorten the time to reach the inflection point of the logistic curve. We have no other options to reduce transmission. No vaccine, no proven therapeutics, and regrettably, not enough testing to make patient and contact isolation possible. Math is tyrannical that way.
 
Why so low numbers in India? Would think it would spread like wildfire there.

Could be as simple as little testing going on. All of these numbers are dependent on testing and documenting, and that is incomplete. The real numbers could be a lot worse but we will never know.
 
Why so low numbers in India? Would think it would spread like wildfire there.

Zero testing and it will spread soon enough. In my hometown, a dude went back from oxford after his girlfriend was hospitalized in U.K. then he took his mom and dad on a shopping spree all across the town and boldly captured those moments on Facebook . The mom works for the health minister or something and now the health minister is quarantined, the family things they have done nothing wrong and since there is a minister involved media is not reporting sh$t. That said idiot lives in the same complex as a close friend of mine
 
Italy just updated their numbers for Saturday. Nearly 800 deaths in the last day, up from 627 the day before. 6500 new cases. Screenshot_20200321-121701.png
 
Italy just updated their numbers for Saturday. Nearly 800 deaths in the last day, up from 627 the day before. 6500 new cases.

27% increase per day in the deaths

Compound that over a month, that would be a 1300-fold increase. More than a million deaths per day a month from now. Exponential growth will surely slow before then, just because there won’t be so many people remaining to infect, but just the same it’s really grim.
 
Yeah, the South Korea number is probably the most accurate.
Just got off the phone with a friend (who may no longer be a friend)...he kept repeating the news that more and more people are infected in Colorado, the numbers are climbing at an alarming rate (he's also panicking about his portfolio).

It's an invalid statistics game right now. Only people being tested are those that are suspected. Without total population testing the numbers are data but not information. Information is data in context and right now, there's no context, or false context if you prefer. There's nothing to compare the data against. South Korea is the better statistical analysis/example since everyone is being tested.

As a rule, I never discuss politics with anyone other than my cousin (the lapsed Republican) but he started on and on and on and I let myself get suckered into an argument and finally I hung up.

A number of people here have mentioned bug-out bags, others are in rural areas. I asked my friend about his plans - none. Other than panicking about the portfolio. He and wife pay for everything with a credit card, and rarely have more than $20 with them. My dad impressed upon me - have some cash in the house, just in case. Enough to fill the gas tank and buy groceries for a couple weeks. Living in Colorado and needing to call a tow truck in the mountains in the winter - you better believe I got cash!

The dog's health papers are with my passport in a wallet in the drawer with the spare cash. I don't assume credit cards will always be accepted at some places. No, I'm not paranoid - not yet. But thinking about options and planning never hurts.

By the way, my kitchen has never been this clean! Hit the sink with the clorox cleaner with bleach - got those food stains right out! Wow! Unfortunately, can't use it on the new laminate floor.
 
Looks like the US numbers are starting their spike now too. The last 4 days they have wavered between 40-60 each day, today we are at 112 and climbing yet. I know a lot of people are against the shutdowns, and a lot are ignoring them. I think we are going to see the toll for that in the coming days and weeks.
 
For better or worse, germany is good at administering and recording things. This is the covid19 dashboard maintained by the RKI, the german equivalent of the NIH National Institute for Allergy and Infectious disease:

https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/478220a4c454480e823b17327b2bf1d4

It is implemented in arcgis. There is a clear pathway how the data is reported daily from the county health departments to the state and from there to RKI. The data collected and verified throughout the day gets released at midnight. As every resident is 'registered' to a specific address, the underlying spatial data is also fairly valid. The data in the map is reported in a per 100k population format which is the number that matters. Oh, and they use a calming blue for the graphics rather than the garish 'red circles' on the Hopkins page.

On the state level data, the industrial states with a high degree of international connectivity are the ones with the highest per-capita case numbers. No big suprise here. The lowest numbers are in the rural stretches of what was formerly east germany.

RKI_covid_3_24_20.jpg

The reassuring part is that if you look at the big 'dark blue' states Bayern, Baden Wuertemberg, Nordrhein Westfalen (you have to click them in the list, not the map), it appears that all of them have hit the downslope of the initial 'hump'. Now at midnight, monday, the weekend numbers become visible, we'll see whether that downslope continues. If it does, it would be a pretty good sign. Another interesting observation is the age distribution. The bulk of the cases are in the age bracket from 15-59 with only small numbers in the >80 bracket. That, in addition to a fairly expansive testing policy, probably accounts for the low reported case fatality rate. Whatever they did to keep the disease out of the nursing homes appears to have worked.

Edit 3/24: I went back and inserted the screenshot for 3/24/20 9am which represents the data from midnight of the same day. The 'stragglers' who didnt report data through some of the weekend have caught up. Total cases are up (as expected), fatals are up (as expected) but the pronounced downslope of the new case reports is sustained. This is on a background of nationwide social distancing (remote work, closure of gathering places) and a few enforced curfews and no-movement orders in smaller communities with clusters. There are some 'situation reports' on a different part of the RKI page. The number of hospitalized cases is fairly low. As anywhere else, the median age for those who die is in the 80s.




For anyone familiar with the geography, this is the data broken down to the county and independent city level:

https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/478220a4c454480e823b17327b2bf1d4/page/page_1/

Some interesting data on that more granular level. The city of Munich got hit hard, but then it has close historic ties with northern italy, so no big suprise there. This is skiing season, the ALto Adige area of Italy is a popular destination for weekend ski trips including bus tours and individuals. Frankfurt otoh, the center of banking and site of the largest airport has very few cases. Same with Berlin. Both of those seem a bit unusual given that both are connected with international travel. Some oddball outliers in out of the way rural counties (probably family clusters that show up due to overall low county populations).
 
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For better or worse, germany is good at administering and recording things. This is the covid19 dashboard maintained by the RKI, the german equivalent of the NIH National Institute for Allergy and Infectious disease:

https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/478220a4c454480e823b17327b2bf1d4

It is implemented in arcgis. There is a clear pathway how the data is reported daily from the county health departments to the state and from there to RKI. The data collected and verified throughout the day gets released at midnight. As every resident is 'registered' to a specific address, the underlying spatial data is also fairly valid. The data in the map is reported in a per 100k population format which is the number that matters. Oh, and they use a calming blue for the graphics rather than the garish 'red circles' on the Hopkins page.

On the state level data, the industrial states with a high degree of international connectivity are the ones with the highest per-capita case numbers. No big suprise here. The lowest numbers are in the rural stretches of what was formerly east germany.

View attachment 83864

The reassuring part is that if you look at the big 'dark blue' states Bayern, Baden Wuertemberg, Nordrhein Westfalen (you have to click them in the list, not the map), it appears that all of them have hit the downslope of the initial 'hump'. Now at midnight, monday, the weekend numbers become visible, we'll see whether that downslope continues. If it does, it would be a pretty good sign. Another interesting observation is the age distribution. The bulk of the cases are in the age bracket from 15-59 with only small numbers in the >80 bracket. That, in addition to a fairly expansive testing policy, probably accounts for the low reported case fatality rate. Whatever they did to keep the disease out of the nursing homes appears to have worked.






For anyone familiar with the geography, this is the data broken down to the county and independent city level:

https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/478220a4c454480e823b17327b2bf1d4/page/page_1/

Some interesting data on that more granular level. The city of Munich got hit hard, but then it has close historic ties with northern italy, so no big suprise there. Frankfurt, the center of banking and site of the largest airport otoh has very few cases. Same with Berlin. Both of those seem a bit unusual. Some oddball outliers in out of the way rural counties (probably family clusters that show up due to overall low county populations).
No deaths in our county. Good to know.
 
But I've accessed the previous CDC web pages via the Wayback Machine (https://archive.org/web/), and the 2:1 or 3:1 ratio between CDC reporting and WHO reporting is pretty consistent.

I'm still looking for *a* site that will give the daily totals running back to the start of the epidemic. Everthing just gives the numbers for the day the site is accessed (at best, plus yesterday's results).

Ron Wanttaja

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/21/upshot/coronavirus-deaths-by-country.html

[URL]https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest
[/URL]
 
One of the more interesting things is that 40% of those hospitalized for COVID-19 infection in the USA are under 50. But it's only a statistic.
 
This guy is saying what my wife has been saying and I know believe to be the case: The cure for this is getting, no has become, worse than the disease. People not in the high-risk category for infection need to be set free to go back to work, spend money and stimulate the economy. I read this twice end-to-end and I can't find much wrong with it. - https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/20/opinion/coronavirus-pandemic-social-distancing.html I especially find the part about horizontal vs. vertical distancing to be interesting - we are supposed to stay away from others who we don't know, yet are in the lower risk for infection categories. But college-age kids are being sent home to live with parents and sometimes grandparents who may be more at risk.

Sure, people will die. People are dying now anyway. Even with the quarantines, people will die. Letting the healthy and less-at-risk out to live life and get things moving again won't change that. But it will allow the country to get back to some form of a functioning economy.
 
People not in the high-risk category for infection need to be set free to go back to work, spend money and stimulate the economy.

Sure, people will die. People are dying now anyway. Even with the quarantines, people will die. Letting the healthy and less-at-risk out to live life and get things moving again won't change that. But it will allow the country to get back to some form of a functioning economy.

Everyone is at high risk for infection. It does not discriminate. Now certain people are at higher risk of severe or fatal illness, but everyone is a potential carrier for this virus, and can expose many more people to it.
 
Among the sites I've been looking at is the CDC.

I see one of their charts labeled COVID-19 cases in the United States by date of illness onset. It seems to show a drop in the number of new cases based on when the illness was detected(?) (unless I'm not reading it correctly). Data is still coming in for the most recent days, so don't pay too much attention to the far end of the chart. You have to scroll down towards the bottom of the page.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html

I'm not really sure what it means, other than it seems a lot of newly sick people were found about 2 weeks ago and it's been trending down for a few days in a row.
 
This guy is saying what my wife has been saying and I know believe to be the case: The cure for this is getting, no has become, worse than the disease. People not in the high-risk category for infection need to be set free to go back to work, spend money and stimulate the economy. I read this twice end-to-end and I can't find much wrong with it. - https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/20/opinion/coronavirus-pandemic-social-distancing.html I especially find the part about horizontal vs. vertical distancing to be interesting - we are supposed to stay away from others who we don't know, yet are in the lower risk for infection categories. But college-age kids are being sent home to live with parents and sometimes grandparents who may be more at risk.

Sure, people will die. People are dying now anyway. Even with the quarantines, people will die. Letting the healthy and less-at-risk out to live life and get things moving again won't change that. But it will allow the country to get back to some form of a functioning economy.
This is truly ignorant.
 
What do people not understand about this?

View attachment 83876
Just extend your pretty picture further to the right and all the lines end up red anyway.

In the meantime, let's cause a recession, or even worse. Those that live through this panic are going to suffer for a decade or more from rash actions borne from irrational fears.
 
Among the sites I've been looking at is the CDC.

I see one of their charts labeled COVID-19 cases in the United States by date of illness onset. It seems to show a drop in the number of new cases based on when the illness was detected(?) (unless I'm not reading it correctly). Data is still coming in for the most recent days, so don't pay too much attention to the far end of the chart. You have to scroll down towards the bottom of the page.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html

I'm not really sure what it means, other than it seems a lot of newly sick people were found about 2 weeks ago and it's been trending down for a few days in a row.

That data looks to be incomplete, and does not match other sources. They may not be reporting cases that were not detected by their labs. I know that was an issue initially, that anything detected by private or state run labs was not reflected in the CDC's totals. That was where the term "presumed cases" came up, anything the CDC didn't actually do was only presumed.
 
Everyone is at high risk for infection. It does not discriminate. Now certain people are at higher risk of severe or fatal illness, but everyone is a potential carrier for this virus, and can expose many more people to it.

Correct. And by keeping the people who are at higher risk for severe or fatal illness isolated, you do a good thing. By keeping people isolated that may be infected, but not suffer severe or fatal illness isolated you only tax the rest of the country's resources and do more lasting harm. Getting the people who are at higher risk of dying isloated = good. F'ing up the rest of the world by isolating everyone who may get infected = bad. Read the article. The Dr. does a better job of explaining it that I can.
 
Simply put, if this is a rational reaction to a disease with this death rate, then we should isolate ourselves completely forever. This should not be a temporary measure. Think of the children (and old people)!

We've just been completely selfish up to now having any interface with any other human being. It's not fair to them that we risk their infection for our pleasure or profit.
 
Just extend your pretty picture further to the right and all the lines end up red anyway.

In the meantime, let's cause a recession, or even worse. Those that live through this panic are going to suffer for a decade or more from rash actions borne from irrational fears.
Yes... but if some of them end up red 6 or 8 months from now instead of in 2 weeks, then the health system might be able to handle the infections. And 6 or 8 months from now we might have an effective treatment.
 
Just extend your pretty picture further to the right and all the lines end up red anyway.

In the meantime, let's cause a recession, or even worse. Those that live through this panic are going to suffer for a decade or more from rash actions borne from irrational fears.
LMAO, truth. The precautions being taken are to slow the rate of infection so that the healthcare system can avoid being overwhelmed. It isn't going to matter much in the long run in terms of total number of people being infected.
 
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Yes... but if some of them end up red 6 or 8 months from now instead of in 2 weeks, then the health system might be able to handle the infections. And 6 or 8 months from now we might have an effective treatment.
Then we should quarantine ourselves infinitely so as to never put anyone else at risk again. If this death rate deserves our doing this to ourselves, then there is little reason for us to ever come out of quarantine.

Maybe we put more investment into better care rather than shutting down our economy for worse care? Nah.
 
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