Corona Virus Numbers???

Status
Not open for further replies.
The two numbers I would like to hear, but I haven't heard.

1. How will they know the emergency is over? What will they measure and what value do they expect it to be? Since we're not testing, they can't compare infection rates.

2. If someone tests positive for the virus, how long are they contagious?
 
Justin M said:
The two numbers I would like to hear, but I haven't heard.

1. How will they know the emergency is over? What will they measure and what value do they expect it to be? Since we're not testing, they can't compare infection rates.

2. If someone tests positive for the virus, how long are they contagious?
Click to expand...
1. That's a good question, although testing will start "real soon now"

2. Whoever gives the test results will likely give more reliable instructions than SGOTI, but the numbers I've heard are 14 to 20 days after symptoms subside, or 14-20 days after the test if the illness doesn't manifest itself.
 
Sluggo63 said:
Lol. Come on man, you're smarter than that. Take the tin foil off and listen to the experts. This virus did not come from the Wuhan lab.

Here you go. This guy is not a quack, nor is he a political shill. Here's what he has to say about the "manufactured virus."

Click to expand...
Sorry, my brain replaces that with Wu-Tang Clan every time.
 
Justin M said:
The two numbers I would like to hear, but I haven't heard.

1. How will they know the emergency is over? What will they measure and what value do they expect it to be? Since we're not testing, they can't compare infection rates.

2. If someone tests positive for the virus, how long are they contagious?
Click to expand...
IMNSHO, the emergency cannot be deemed over until we have both an effective vaccine and treatment.
 
One milestone that I'm watching for is when the number of new cases per week starts going down instead of up. That has already happened in China and South Korea (through considerable effort!). After that, I suppose it would be when the number of active cases starts going down (i.e., more recoveries per week than new cases per week), and after that, when the number of active cases reaches some small percentage of total population.
 
JOhnH said:
IMNSHO, the emergency cannot be deemed over until we have both an effective vaccine and treatment.
Click to expand...

Why do you believe this?
2019-nCoV is very closely related to the SARS virus, which became an epidemic in 2002/03. The vaccine developed for SARS was never distributed publicly. By the time it arrived the epidemic was over.
Given the pattern we are seeing so far there's a reasonable likelihood the same thing happens this time.

The flu vaccines promote antibodies, but flu viruses seem to mutate sufficiently quickly to stay ahead of the vaccine labs.


Palmpilot said:
One milestone that I'm watching for is when the number of new cases per week starts going down instead of up. That has already happened in China and South Korea (through considerable effort!). After that, I suppose it would be when the number of active cases starts going down (i.e., more recoveries per week than new cases per week), and after that, when the number of active cases reaches some small percentage of total population.
Click to expand...

That's pretty well the way most epidemics play out. Don't see any reason this one will be much different.
 
The Governor of Colorado has ordered all Co ski resorts closed immediately.
 
GRG55 said:
Why do you believe this?
2019-nCoV is very closely related to the SARS virus, which became an epidemic in 2002/03. The vaccine developed for SARS was never distributed publicly. By the time it arrived the epidemic was over.
Given the pattern we are seeing so far there's a reasonable likelihood the same thing happens this time.

The flu vaccines promote antibodies, but flu viruses seem to mutate sufficiently quickly to stay ahead of the vaccine labs.

That's pretty well the way most epidemics play out. Don't see any reason this one will be much different.
Click to expand...
I suppose that you and some other famous person that agrees with you could be right. I hope so.
But if you are not, then we need a vaccine and a treatment.

On the other hand, a significant population reduction could solve a lot of problems.
 
Justin M said:
The two numbers I would like to hear, but I haven't heard.

1. How will they know the emergency is over? What will they measure and what value do they expect it to be? Since we're not testing, they can't compare infection rates.

2. If someone tests positive for the virus, how long are they contagious?
Click to expand...

1. Basically when new cases heads toward 0.
2. Assuming I recall reading this correctly. The official metric is three negative tests in a row, with each test separated by two days. So far the median period is 20 days from onset of fever as still contagious. The high mark was 37 days, low was 6. Note: fever is usally the last symptom and can take as much as 20 days to appear. Usually appears within 12 days.

Tim
 
JOhnH said:
I suppose that you and some other famous person that agrees with you could be right. I hope so.
But if you are not, then we need a vaccine and a treatment.

On the other hand, a significant population reduction could solve a lot of problems.
Click to expand...

So what in the currently available, credible statistics (let's say South Korea or Singapore or Taiwan or Italy, if one believes China and Iran are fudging) suggests this is going to result in a "significant population reduction", even without a vaccine?
 
Last edited:
This was a pretty interesting analysis, with lots of pretty plots for those interested.
https://blog.sprucehealth.com/coronavirus-whos-going-to-die/
Coronavirus: Who’s Going to Die
https://blog.sprucehealth.com/coronavirus-whos-going-to-die/
Wash your hands and whatnot, sure, but let’s ask the question that people are actually asking: Who’s going to die from this thing
Click to expand...

and a more recent follow up:
A Tale of Two Death Rates: How South Korea and Italy Predict Our COVID-19 Future
https://blog.sprucehealth.com/a-tal...-korea-and-italy-predict-our-covid-19-future/
South Korea and Italy have been dealing with the novel coronavirus and its associated disease, COVID-19, for about the same amount of time. South Korea got started a few days earlier, but data from the WHO show clearly that each country began to find a significant number of cases somewhere around mid-to-late February of this year.1 From that point until the end of the month, the two nations had epidemic curves that tracked each other closely, but then something changed: new cases in South Korea began to fall off precipitously while the opposite happened in Italy. Even more alarmingly, deaths in South Korea stayed at a slow trickle while mortality in Italy took off on a sharp upward curve.
Click to expand...
 
^^^ thanks for posting this.
 
skier said:
This was a pretty interesting analysis, with lots of pretty plots for those interested.
Coronavirus: Who’s Going to Die
https://blog.sprucehealth.com/coronavirus-whos-going-to-die/


and a more recent follow up:
A Tale of Two Death Rates: How South Korea and Italy Predict Our COVID-19 Future
https://blog.sprucehealth.com/a-tal...-korea-and-italy-predict-our-covid-19-future/
Click to expand...
Good articles.

It's interesting how his tune changed between the first article he published (March 3) and the second (March 14).

... I decided, almost exactly this time two days ago, that this stupid piece-of-crap virus was the real deal.
Click to expand...
 
Maybe people are unaware that there is no cure for a corona-type virus. The treatment is bed rest, Tylenol and cough medicine.

I just went through this in January and it took a month to clear out my lungs.

I didn't go to my MD until the three week mark because I thought I had pneumonia. They immediately sent me to get a chest X-Ray to confirm it was only (ha!) a virus...

I work from home and avoid large groups because stupid people annoy me. Like hoarders, for example!
 
South Korea is using Zinc and Chloroquine as a treatment.

 
GRG55 said:
So what in the currently available, credible statistics (let's say South Korea or Singapore or Taiwan or Italy, if one believes China and Iran are fudging) suggests this is going to result in a "significant population reduction", even without a vaccine?
Click to expand...
I have no facts to back up my gut feel.
But I will say that I admit that I should have put my comment about population reduction in a green font.

However, I think do this virus is much worse than many people are claiming, I don't think it will make a significant dent in world population, but I think it is a mistake to dismiss it's potential severity.
 
JOhnH said:
I have no facts to back up my gut feel.
But I will say that I admit that I should have put my comment about population reduction in a green font.

However, I think do this virus is much worse than many people are claiming, I don't think it will make a significant dent in world population, but I think it is a mistake to dismiss it's potential severity.
Click to expand...

Actually, if we do nothing and it runs rampant. Then yes, actually it has the potential to dramatically become what some cheeky memes state. The Boomer Remover. So mean, but oh so funny, combined with ironic when you see the majority of people who dismiss COVID-19 paranoia are over 60.

Tim
 
tspear said:
Actually, if we do nothing and it runs rampant. Then yes, actually it has the potential to dramatically become what some cheeky memes state. The Boomer Remover. So mean, but oh so funny, combined with ironic when you see the majority of people who dismiss COVID-19 paranoia are over 60.

Tim
Click to expand...
Do you have any statistics to back up the claim that the majority of people who dismiss COVID 19 are over 60? Those of us over 60 actually understand their vulnerability. Younger people often have a feeling of invulnerability.
 
JOhnH said:
Those of us over 60 actually understand their vulnerability.
Click to expand...

I'm just into my 70's. I'm trying to be very cautious, but not paranoid. It just sounds like a miserable way to die, coughing and fighting for every breath.

We're pretty well stocked up at both homes, and are attempting to home in as much as possible.
 
Justin M said:
The two numbers I would like to hear, but I haven't heard.

1. How will they know the emergency is over? What will they measure and what value do they expect it to be? Since we're not testing, they can't compare infection rates.

2. If someone tests positive for the virus, how long are they contagious?
Click to expand...

After everyone buys all their choice stocks
 
JOhnH said:
Do you have any statistics to back up the claim that the majority of people who dismiss COVID 19 are over 60? Those of us over 60 actually understand their vulnerability. Younger people often have a feeling of invulnerability.
Click to expand...

just anecdotes. Starting with this Forum, BT, COPA, and even FB.

Tim
 
GRG55 said:
Why do you believe this?
2019-nCoV is very closely related to the SARS virus, which became an epidemic in 2002/03. The vaccine developed for SARS was never distributed publicly. By the time it arrived the epidemic was over.
Given the pattern we are seeing so far there's a reasonable likelihood the same thing happens this time.

The flu vaccines promote antibodies, but flu viruses seem to mutate sufficiently quickly to stay ahead of the vaccine labs.

That's pretty well the way most epidemics play out. Don't see any reason this one will be much different.
Click to expand...

I think this article gives a pretty good overview over the different virus types: https://www.healthline.com/health-news/how-deadly-is-the-coronavirus-compared-to-past-outbreaks

The problem is, that while COVID-19 is nowhere near as deadly as SARS, it is much more contagious. People also don't show show symptoms as quickly and if they do, they are usually mild. This means that they can spread the virus for weeks without even knowing.

The CDC now predicts that between 160 and 214 million Americans could become infected and that between 200,000 and 1.7 million(!!) could die:
https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-150-million-americans-may-get-infected-2020-3

This is in line with model simulations of scientist from other countries.

It is expected that between 10 and 20% of the infected will show severe symptoms. Even if we assume that only 160 million would become infected and that only 10% of them would show severe symptoms, this would still translate to 16 million people who need to be hospitalized! :eek:

The only reason why the Chinese brought the situation under control was that they put the entire region under lockdown and forced(!!) sick people into their makeshift hospitals. American certainly wouldn't accept this, we also don't have have one single "Wuhan", instead the cases are popping up all over the US, while the government is doing too little, too late.
 
Luigi said:
The Governor of Colorado has ordered all Co ski resorts closed immediately.
Click to expand...

My flight to Montrose today had 40 people (including crew) onboard. Coming back? 172.
 
kayoh190 said:
My flight to Montrose today had 40 people (including crew) onboard. Coming back? 172.
Click to expand...

And I got a text from my Colorado county EOC (I’m 1/3 of our county that bothers to sign up, mostly for storm warnings...) that said the State (days late) said don’t take public transport out of the high country or ride share.

LOL. Oops. Too late.

I’m pretty sure that message made it to less than 1% of the target audience. And probably nobody at Montrose or any other airport up there telling anybody to stay off if they had symptoms.

Doesn’t really matter with there being an asymptomatic stage. Shrug.

But I got the “official” word. In the wrong State. Haha. Meanwhile I’m sure the shuttle vans to DEN and EGE were packed. And they clean those every night thoroughly too, of course. Haha yeah, right.

They’re not ahead of it. Which really isn’t a surprise or anything and this info shouldn’t be taken as a complaint. Just thought it was, cute.

The last thing the ski areas wanted was to make that decision on their own. A government shutdown gets them off the hook for all sorts of messy things, and is the right thing to do. But they weren’t ready for everyone piling into mass transit, such as it is up there, to bail.

Some number of people just flew home with it. Again, shrug. Can’t be helped.

I recommend not shaking hands at the cockpit door if the landing was good. Haha. :)
 
FORANE said:
South Korea is using Zinc and Chloroquine as a treatment.

Click to expand...
Lot's of stuff being tried. I didn't watch the video - did it work? I also understand that Jim Bakker and Alex Jones have both found cures which they're selling through the mail.
 
This guy gave a decent interview

Some points:
  • 150 critical medications used in the USA manufactured in China & India.
  • The SARS event was similar (another corona virus) but it was also different, supposedly people infected with SARS didn't become very contagious until they were nearly or already showing symptoms making segregation/isolation of them easier. Supposedly COVID-19 is much more contagious, infected people are shedding the virus much sooner, long before showing symptoms.
  • His words "this is like trying to stop the wind"
  • Most Chinese men smoke and start at a very young age, infected men death rates are supposedly around 10%, women rarely smoke and death rates are around 2%. The risk factors in the USA are a bit different but noted that 45%+ of the population over 40 years old are obese, pre-diabetes or are diabetic.
  • Seasons aren't gonna stop this, its in desert climates and spreading in similar rates.
One of my friends noted there are around 40,000 ICU beds in the in USA, they are rarely full and those ICUs are never staffed to rated capacity. This guy is predicting around 500,000 deaths in the coming months in the USA.

I know a lot of smokers. I know heavy drinkers. I know some middle aged very obese smokers that drink.
 
Last edited:
luvflyin said:
The Andromeda Strain. Stephen King dabbled with Virus's in The Stand. Some light reading if you have to hunker down and get bored.
Click to expand...

Read it 3 times. Read the first version twice and the uncut version once.
 
Palmpilot said:
Around here, the liquid-soap shelves are picked clean, while bar soap remains. Apparently the masses don't know the difference between liquid soap and hand sanitizer.
Click to expand...

Liquid soap is much more effective than bar soap. Bar soap, you're leaving stuff from your hands behind on the bar that ends up back on your hands the next time you use the bar. Liquid soap doesn't get contaminated.
 
flyingcheesehead said:
Liquid soap is much more effective than bar soap. Bar soap, you're leaving stuff from your hands behind on the bar that ends up back on your hands the next time you use the bar. Liquid soap doesn't get contaminated.
Click to expand...
But soap molecules actually pull apart virus “cell” walls so any left on the bar soap surface will die. I put “cell” in quotes because viruses are in the weird pseudo-alive not really cell category.
 
I think the real problem with coronavirus is the infectiousness and the rate at which is makes severe disease. Influenza is awful, but it really isn't that infective. For example, Mrs. Steingar had influenza, the real deal. I didn't get it. Coronavirus is nutty infectious because folks can walk around with it not knowing and shedding virus all the while, and those viruses can persist on surfaces for days.

The lethality is scary, but what is even scarier is the rate at which it makes severe disease that can be life threatening and requires treatment. The numbers I'm seeing hover around 20%. If we have a giant outbreak of a disease that puts 20% of it's victims in the hospital we'll overwhelm our medical resources. Heck, they're stretched thin with the 10K infections we have now.

Do your social distancing and wash your hands. With luck the warm weather will put the kibosh this whole thing. In the meantime we really want to keep this thing as under wraps as we can. You really don't want to see what 1918 was like.
 
My grandpa had stories about 1918 and his mother was not told about all of her sisters that were dying until after she got better. The streets were a constant stream of horse carts bringing another dead body. This was in the NYC metro area (or whatever it was back then).
 
steingar said:
I think the real
numbers I'm seeing hover around 20%. If we have a giant outbreak of a disease that puts 20% of it's victims in the hospital we'll overwhelm our medical resources. Heck, they're stretched thin with the 10K infections we have now.
Click to expand...
Did the 285,000 Americans who were hospitalized for the swine flu just a few years ago put a strain on our nation’s hospital system?
 
azblackbird said:
Did the 285,000 Americans who were hospitalized for the swine flu just a few years ago put a strain on our nation’s hospital system?
Click to expand...

Not sure where you are getting your numbers. Here are the US numbers I found for the Swine Flu, courtesy of the CDC.

115,318 cases
27,632 hospitalized
3,433 deaths
 
Last edited:
Finding consistent data on cases of COVID-19 is difficult. For instance, you can access the CDC's web page...

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html

And it says, 10,442 cases and 150 deaths. Yet, if you scroll down to the table labeled, "COVID-19 Cases in the United States by date of illness onset," the data on the table adds to about 1,800 cases. Sure, it's being updated... I downloaded the table a week ago, and the number of cases reported for March 10th has increased by almost a factor of 10. Maybe the "10,442" cases is cumulative, and the table is adjusted to reflect the recoveries by many sufferers. But that's still a 5x difference.

The World Health Organization (WHO) publishes daily status reports in PDF format:

https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports/

However, they've changed the reporting methodology in the past month, and in any case, their numbers don't match with that of the CDC. On the 18th of March, WHO's situation report says that the USA has 3,536 cases and 58 deaths. This is significantly lower than the CDC is reporting...almost a third of the CDC numbers.

Ron Wanttaja
 
475 deaths in Italy today, more tomorrow, more the next day. That is a rate of 175,000 per year without any increase.
 
wanttaja said:
Finding consistent data on cases of COVID-19 is difficult. For instance, you can access the CDC's web page...

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html

And it says, 10,442 cases and 150 deaths. Yet, if you scroll down to the table labeled, "COVID-19 Cases in the United States by date of illness onset," the data on the table adds to about 1,800 cases. Sure, it's being updated... I downloaded the table a week ago, and the number of cases reported for March 10th has increased by almost a factor of 10. Maybe the "10,442" cases is cumulative, and the table is adjusted to reflect the recoveries by many sufferers. But that's still a 5x difference.

The World Health Organization (WHO) publishes daily status reports in PDF format:

https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports/

However, they've changed the reporting methodology in the past month, and in any case, their numbers don't match with that of the CDC. On the 18th of March, WHO's situation report says that the USA has 3,536 cases and 58 deaths. This is significantly lower than the CDC is reporting...almost a third of the CDC numbers.

Ron Wanttaja
Click to expand...

It think what you are finding is that the numbers are changing rapidly, especially as more and more testing is being done.

I've been watching this lately, seems to be most up-to-date of anything.

 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top