Corona Virus and Oshkosh?

[Crashnburn]

..... every time I start looking at early retirement the economy takes another negative turn. What's up with that?...is somebody monitoring my dreams about retirement?

Yeah, me too. My last 2 months IRA total looks like a dead cat bouncing down a flight of stairs. I hope your results are better than mine, I’ve lost 3 years of returns in the past 2 months.

 

[WDD]

My understanding is that one's retirement plan should include 3 years of resources in fixed income so that you can ride out a failure in the equity markets.

Sounds very smart

 

[JEB]

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_flu_pandemic

How about some history on the ‘swine flu’? Up to 500,000+ worldwide fatalities. Does anyone remember much about it?

I caught the Swine flu in 2009. It hit really hard. I was out of work for a solid 2 weeks and wasn't really feeling better until at least another week after that. i was 43 years old at that time. I can totally understand how it would have been way worse if I caught that at my father's age (81 now). Swine Flu Sucks. Don't try it.

 

[Ghery]

I saw a post on another board that claims that S&F is cancelled.

I had a meeting scheduled for the beginning of June in Helsinki that was just cancelled (delayed to TBD dates). I have another one the end of June in Turin, Italy. I fully expect that to be delayed an undetermined period of time, as well. Then, I'm on the committee for my professional society's international symposium in Reno the end of July. We are still working as if it will happen. The committee chair has already said that a decision to cancel will happen "above my pay grade". We shall see.

 

[flyingron]

I saw a post on another board that claims that S&F is cancelled.

You're looking at the wrong board then. The official S&F site says it's postponed (to May 5).

 

[Ghery]

You're looking at the wrong board then. The official S&F site says it's postponed (to May 5).

And that board has folks questioning the "up to datedness" of the S&F web site. It doesn't matter to me, one way or the other, as I'm not planning on attending this year.

 

[strangebird]

Bike week in Daytona is in progress now, and there are around 500,000 bikers here. This is only a short drive to Sun n Fun. A huge majority of bikers are boomers, so if it hits here, you can expect the mortality rate to surge, in which case they will have to cancel SNF.

The bikers will drink enough to ward off any virus as the blood alcohol levels will be high enough to kill any bugs

 

[strangebird]

You're looking at the wrong board then. The official S&F site says it's postponed (to May 5).

\
All the snow birds will be headed home before May and the snow birds were a driving force for then SnF was held before they all left for the North and spring break vacations will be over by then and if able people will be looking at summer stuff, maybe

 

[Snowmass]

..... every time I start looking at early retirement the economy takes another negative turn. What's up with that?...is somebody monitoring my dreams about retirement?

Reality check: if we are going to live forever we will need to work forever. New technology may help except that we keep moving the goal posts. I am amazed how much materiel crap people claim they NEED. When we were much poorer and many married women did not work we survived quite well. Anybody see a contradiction?

 

[tsts4]

And that board has folks questioning the "up to datedness" of the S&F web site. It doesn't matter to me, one way or the other, as I'm not planning on attending this year.

Both the SnF webpage and FB page have been updated— it’s officially postponed until 5 May.
Greg Gibson confirmed the memo he signed above on the VAF website and as a credentialed volunteer I received an email from Laura Vaughn, Executive Director of Events, asking us volunteers to let our area chairmen know if we can support the new dates.

Personally I totally expect it to get cancelled altogether at some point in the near future.

 

[sourdough44]

This may be a good time to check for cancellations at the Hilton next to the North 40.

 

[flyingron]

This may be a good time to check for cancellations at the Hilton next to the North 40.

Not unless they change the special "Oshkosh" pricing policy.

Amusingly, the HGI at Sun_n_Fun we got a room for a standard amount of Hilton points a few years back. Apparently, they jacked up the price but not the "points required" for the stay. Of course, there's a lot less demand on the HGI there (fewer attendees and more close in competing hotels).

 

[Palmpilot]

There are a lot of things we learned then but forgot since.
When I did my medical training, the children's hospital still had separate exam rooms for any kid with a rash or fever. The rooms had doors to the outside and the patients never went to a waiting room. You called them in, looked at the kid and discharged them if you could without them ever setting foot inside of the hospital. Our 'infectious disease wing' had a catwalk outside of the windows and a phone for each room. During any kind of outbreak you could isolate the infectious patients from the visitors etc. Now we have one or two 'AIIR rooms' per hospital, not nearly enough if we ever have an outbreak of truly airborne disease .

I heard that the Chinese set up special clinics that were separate from the main entrances of their hospitals.

 

[Palmpilot]

Well I guess the social security money will be around for a few more decades after the boomers are purged by the Wuhan Plague...

I used to think that I was a boomer, but in recent years I realized that I was born a year too early. I guess that means I'm safe.

 

[YooperMooney]

EAA cancelled my SportAir TIG workshop in April. I wish they would have pre-screened the eleven other attendees and went forward with it. It’s not like we’re all touchy feely there.

 

[Palmpilot]

Yeah, but consider that once they started taking action, they were extremely aggressive with their measures. I don't see that Americans would accept not being allowed to leave their houses or being forcefully(!!) dragged into hospitals. One of many videos:

I'm surprised that the American media isn't more reporting about scientific topics, but instead entirely focuses on stuff like whether Trump's speech was good or not. Anyway, here are some data points from Germany, I don't see why things would be much different in the US, only that we are few weeks behind:

- The virus is almost twice as contagious as a flu
- Eventually, 60 - 70% of the population are expected to become infected with it
- In 10 - 20% of the cases severe symptoms are expected, requiring hospitalization
- Warmer temperatures will have only a minimal impact on the virus
- The measures (school closings, no big events, people encouraged to work from home, travel restrictions, quarantine, etc.) will only delay the spread of the virus, not stop it
- This delay is supposed to spread out the infections, to make it easier for doctors and hospitals to deal with them
- Model simulation have shown that the peak of infections will only occur in the July / August time frame
- Germany has 38 intensive care hospital beds per 100,00 people (the US has only around 26).

Positively assuming that only 60% of the population will become infected, that only 10% of them will need intensive care, that all of this will spread out over 6 month and that intensive care will be needed for only a single week, this still translates to 100,000 * 0.6 * 0.1 / 26 weeks = 230 ICU beds / 100,000 people.

I am wondering how the US government is planning planning to handle this? Even the total number of hospital beds in the US (~210 / 100,000) would not be sufficient, particularly not since they can't free up the entire capacity for COVID-19 patients. What about the equipment to support these patients, like respirators?

I have some doubts that the Ostrich strategy will be successful in the long term...

I saw a report that the Chinese built an entire hospital building in TEN DAYS to deal with the crisis!

 

[Palmpilot]

...Mortality rate of this thing is about the same as the flu from what I've read, so I'm not sure where your numbers are coming from....

Probably from here:

"Globally, about 3.4% of reported COVID-19 cases have died," WHO Director-General Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said at a press conference in Geneva on Tuesday."​

https://abcnews.go.com/Internationa...amble-outbreak-case-numbers/story?id=69381834

Note that he stated it as a percentage of REPORTED cases. That implies that deaths as a percentage of ACTUAL cases would be lower. How much lower, I don't think anyone knows yet.

 

[YooperMooney]

I saw a report that the Chinese built an entire hospital building in TEN DAYS to deal with the crisis!

Easily attainable with zero health and safety standards for the builders, hospital staff, and patients.

 

[dans2992]

I saw a report that the Chinese built an entire hospital building in TEN DAYS to deal with the crisis!

I think it was missing a few “optional extras”.... like toilets.

 

[Datadriver]

We can certainly hope it will be over. But this isn't a seasonal disease. I'll do my part to try not to be a boomer statistic.

How do you know it is not seasonal?

 

[Jim K]

Easily attainable with zero health and safety standards for the builders, hospital staff, and patients.

Isn't that the one that collapsed last week?

 

[Palmpilot]

Isn't that the one that collapsed last week?

That was a hotel that had been repurposed as a quarantine facility. The one I was referring to was new construction.

 

[danhagan]

Tom Hanks and his wife are in Australia, which is famously hot, and they both have the virus.

Most likely they were the vector and didn't "catch it" in Austalia ....

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
appears China is on the downswing

And it only took 4 months

 

[Juliet Hotel]

Most likely they were the vector and didn't "catch it" in Austalia ....

Speculation based on nothing.

 

[Snowmass]

I think it was missing a few “optional extras”.... like toilets.

Seriously ill patients often can't use toilets. Let me tell you about a bed pan.

 

[Snowmass]

Note that he stated it as a percentage of REPORTED cases. That implies that deaths as a percentage of ACTUAL cases would be lower. How much lower, I don't think anyone knows yet.

This is a good if optimistic point. A death is certainly a event likely to be reported while a do nothing stay at home recovery is less likely to be reported.

 

[Palmpilot]

This is a good if optimistic point. A death is certainly a event likely to be reported while a do nothing stay at home recovery is less likely to be reported.

It's not optimism to note that there is not enough testing being done to determine the actual number of cases.

 

[Snowmass]

The logic of your statement in relation to what I said escapes me, perhaps because it is not there. Let me try again. If there are reported cases are 100 and reported deaths 5 then this might suggest a fatality rate of 5%. However, if actual contractions including reported and unreported regardless of the reason for not reporting are 200 the fatality rate per disease contraction is really 2.5%. This lack of testing does not change the true rate based on actual contraction. Most people would think this a little less dire and would be more optimistic.

 

[Snowmass]

To further elaborate all please read the article on today's Wall Street Journal, 3/16/20, page A15 entitled "It's Dangerous to Test Only the Sick". If I had a scanner I would attach it but here is what it points out. The death rate of the annual flu is 0.1% however if we only tested people people who are hospitalized with with flu like symptoms it jumps 75 fold or 7.5%. So the covid-19 actual death rate may be WAY overstated. Now think of the almost unimaginable economic damage we are doing to ourselves.

 

[Warmi]

I have hard time separating legitimate concerns from what appears to be a bidding war between politicians and agencies on who can appear to be the toughest ....economic consequences be damned.

 

[sourdough44]

Just imagine how lonely it could be on the FISKE arrival? There you go, chattin it up with approach then tower, parking right next to the action.

Once you park, 40% discounts on everything, since fewer attendees.

Just funning, it’s better to rub a few elbows.

 

[German guy]

[...] The death rate of the annual flu is 0.1% however if we only tested people people who are hospitalized with with flu like symptoms it jumps 75 fold or 7.5%. So the covid-19 actual death rate may be WAY overstated. Now think of the almost unimaginable economic damage we are doing to ourselves.

The flu is a regular occurence and estimations of infected persons are pretty solid.

Society AND the economy would collapse if the predicted +50% of the American population would all get infected within a few weeks and +10% of them would need to be hospitalized. Now, this would be truly unimaginable.

 

[Warmi]

The flu is a regular occurence and estimations of infected persons are pretty solid.

Society AND the economy would collapse if the predicted +50% of the American population would all get infected within a few weeks and +10% of them would need to be hospitalized. Now, this would be truly unimaginable.

So let’s just close off everything and everyone and collapse it ourselves ...

 

[Jeff767]

In South Korea a high percentage of young people have been getting the virus. In Italy it’s affecting mostly older people. Age is why they have such different death rates.

 

[asicer]

In South Korea a high percentage of young people have been getting the virus. In Italy it’s affecting mostly older people. Age is why they have such different death rates.

Are there also differences in the numbers/profiles of smokers in S. Korea vs Italy? Compromised respiratory system is also a factor.

 

[flyingron]

Just imagine how lonely it could be on the FISKE arrival?

It's the FISK (no e) arrival. The town is called Fisk. "FISKE" is a relic of the FAA putting a GPS fix there.

Anyhow, at real slack times I've been known to call up OSH tower and ask if they were doing the FISK thing. They said yes, but I could come straight in anyhow.

 

[danhagan]

(Regarding Tom Hanks becoming infected)
Most likely they were the vector and didn't "catch it" in Australia ....

Speculation based on nothing.

Other than Australia's Queensland Health stating that Hanks and his wife brought it in, that Hanks has been shooting the "Elvis" movie in multiple international locations and that he was exposed outside Australia as ALL the Australia cases were "non-contact" with no traceable exposure within Australia (if it doesn't fit - you must acquit).

 

[flyingron]

I just got back from two weeks on a cruise ship in NZ and three weeks in Australia. People are upset that I might have COVID. I told them I didn't go near Tom Hanks. (Though I did spend some time with Sully one evening).

 

[weilke]

In South Korea a high percentage of young people have been getting the virus. In Italy it’s affecting mostly older people. Age is why they have such different death rates.

Another aspect is that 60+% of the SK cases were members of a religious group. The health authorities received the member lists early on and tested all the members of the group regardless of whether they were symptomatic. That way, they picked up all the cases which increased the denominator in the case fatality calculation. So any comparison of the CFR between countries needs to be done with that in mind.

 

[denverpilot]

I couldn’t resist on FB. LOL.