Cancelling flight tomorrow to Seattle. Would you?

TheGolfPilot

TheGolfPilot

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Golfpilot
I have had planned a trip to go up to Seattle from Concord tomorrow afternoon. Knowing it was winter I had booked us 3 southwest tickets a few months ago as a just in case.
I am very comfortable flying in IMC for long periods of time, and the only things that would hold me back is severe weather, and airplane capabilities (182, no deice) Looking at tomorrow's weather I have decided it's best to take the southwest flight. Scud running under icy clouds, up the west coast, is not my idea of fun.

Is there anybody, looking at the current forecast, that would try to make that flight (in non-deiced plane) If so would you climb through and descend through ice?

Somebody with FIKI, does this forecast look like a no brainer go decision?
 
You sound like your wanting others to support your decision not to fly yourself. Don't do that to yourself. If you feel it's not something you want to deal with be fine with that. What you're doing is actually a harder decision then deciding to go, weather be damned. You're making the right call. Stick with it.
 
TheGolfPilot said:
Is there anybody, looking at the current forecast, that would try to make that flight (in non-deiced plane)
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Nope

My folks live outside of Seattle and I have been wanting to fly up there form the Bay Area, but I am usually heading over the winter and have yet to have a good enough weather window when I needed to go. Looking at the MEA's and Icing Forecast alone for tomorrow that would be a no brainer Southwest Airlines call for me.
 
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I fly FIKI and own non FIKI, I don't mess with ice in non ice airplanes, my life is really cool and I really like my airplane in the condition it's in; that's not conducive to flying non FIKI in ice.
 
TheGolfPilot said:
Is there anybody, looking at the current forecast, that would try to make that flight (in non-deiced plane) If so would you climb through and descend through ice?
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Hopefully nobody would be dumb enough to attempt this. Absolutely not.

You exercised good ADM, so don't question your choice. There will always be another day to fly it. Sit back, relax and enjoy your airline ride.
 
Sounds to me like you are making a sound decision.
 
Don't second guess yourself. You made the call. I have a personal rule not to reverse a no go decision, to avoid a rationalization trap. Weather often is different than forecast, and sometimes it's a lot better.

Though the only ice AIRMET on the west coast right now is right along the coast. It does include Seattle, but the ceiling there is 10,000 feet. I'd file that for next time.

There is lots of IMC and some turbulence. Not a pleasant flight.
 
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When the question is "If..." the answer is NO.

Bob Gardner
 
Right now it is VFR in northern Puget Sound, there are rain showers stacked up east of AWO, to the west is is clearing. but the nice thing about Puget Sound weather is, if you don't like it, wait 5 minutes it will change.
 
All of the above and good for having the backup plan in place and ready to go to make that decision easier
 
Might I point out the flight last December where the guy thought it'd be cool to turn his Lance into a popsicle until it removed its tail and sent him, his wife, and three kids into an almond orchard ten miles from my house.

If you have a single second thought, southwest it.


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Even if you made it to Seattle, you'd have to wait for a hole in the weather to make it back home. That might come in April.

It's tough to plan long trips in the PNW this time of year ...
 
Tampico Trauma said:
Might I point out the flight last December where the guy thought it'd be cool to turn his Lance into a popsicle until it removed its tail and sent him, his wife, and three kids into an almond orchard ten miles from my house.

If you have a single second thought, southwest it.


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I'd probably risk the ice before that

Virgin FTW ;)
 
I just booked a redeye on Spirit LAX-BWI for myself and my 5 year old daughter in two weeks. I could only wish for Virgin or SWA.


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Tampico Trauma said:
Might I point out the flight last December where the guy thought it'd be cool to turn his Lance into a popsicle until it removed its tail and sent him, his wife, and three kids into an almond orchard ten miles from my house.

If you have a single second thought, southwest it.


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While I've heard speculation about ice in that accident, I've heard nothing definitive. Have you?

Some of the more interesting speculation was that he encountered strong updrafts, probably mountain waves, in alt hold, didn't understand the high speeds, and lost it when the autopilot kicked off, leading to disorientation and overspeed. It explains a lot of the details, particularly early high speeds. Ice doesn't do that, at least not on its own.

Illegal IFR certainly played a role. That part is definitive.
 
From what I recall-- he was dead center in the icing zone that day. Including flying through visible moisture.

His previous call was for vectors to the nearest airport. (BFL wasn't the closest but probably the best choice) and shortly thereafter, a painful mayday call.

My speculation is that he noticed the ice and/or the effects of it and started to panic. At which point he either performed a poorly planned emergency descent at which the tail removed itself enroute...

Or the tail turned into a popsicle, removed itself, initiating an unexpected descent.

The weather was ****ty, even by Central Valley standards.




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We have low ceilings and high winds this morning. Freeze level at 2500'
 
Yep, scrubbing out my planned very from Krnt to Kkls tomorrow unless the weather improves massively


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Pilawt said:
Even if you made it to Seattle, you'd have to wait for a hole in the weather to make it back home. That might come in April.

It's tough to plan long trips in the PNW this time of year ...
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It's been a while since this thread was active, but this statement is so true. This time of year I have a hard time flying, even in the pattern to maintain proficiency. Looking back, you made the right choice. Southwest all the way.
 
Ghery said:
This time of year I have a hard time flying, even in the pattern to maintain proficiency. Looking back, you made the right choice. Southwest all the way.
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We're moving from Vancouver WA to Phoenix next month. But I rented a hangar in the Phoenix area already, and repositioned my 172 down there in late October, before the really bad weather kicked in. Looking at the current extended forecast, I'd sure hate to be planning that trip now.
 
We had 3 days last week it could have been done easy. That's the nice thing about Puget Sound, if you don't like the weather wait 5 minutes.
 
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